Player Discussion Marner

[rumman]

Love these song tips

Me too, that’s why I put it in there, enjoy brother………

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Regardless of Marner, our results the last 8 years have been bad. His fault or someone else's fault we have to try something new.

Trading or letting Marner walk might make us worse, or it might make us better. We have to take the risk because the alternative is 16 years of 1st round exits.

We can't trade Nylander or Matthews. Marner is the oddball out by circumstance and the need for a trade.

This isn't even evaluating them as players. Contract wise, Nylander was the most at risk at not being a Leaf, after he signed, Marner shot up probability wise to go.

It's essentially this.

NOT to mention, Marner isn't exactly a Berube guy. Berube will want more Knies players. He just will. and he'll need money to do that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

lol was the “closest” a 40 goal scorer from like 2005?

The closest by your metrics was 0.02 P/GP away, but because they got the 6th most goals in the league in one year (110th highest this century), you have somehow decided that they are incapable of being compared to a player who got the 4th most assists (41st highest this century) and 3rd most primary assists (10th highest this century). That is illogical.

Goals are more predictive than points

No, they're not. In fact, historically, they have pretty low correlation with contracts, and statistically, they are worth about the same as primary assists.
You've just arbitrarily decided to ignore playmaking, because Marner is a playmaker, and you don't want to admit that you're wrong.

 

[Legion34]

The closest by your metrics was 0.02 P/GP away, but because they got the 6th most goals in the league in one year (110th highest this century), you have somehow decided that they are incapable of being compared to a player who got the 4th most assists (41st highest this century) and 3rd most primary assists (10th highest this century). That is illogical.

No, they're not. In fact, historically, they have pretty low correlation with contracts, and statistically, they are worth about the same as primary assists.
You've just arbitrarily decided to ignore playmaking, because Marner is a playmaker, and you don't want to admit that you're wrong.

which player was this? You write books every time. My metrics were largely raw and pace goals and points. P/pg was not my only or even most accurate contract predictor

1.) If you are trying to compare a 40 goal player from 20 years ago to now. It’s pretty silly. Healtleys ELC was pre lockout.

Show me again who you are talking about?

2.) you are just deciding primary assists are worth the same as goals with no proof. They are not recognized as a tiebreaker for the art Ross. They are not listed on even basic sports websites such as the nhl website.

You are looking at Jonas seigel logic here. Where is the award for primary assists. Where is the “all time primary assists” ranking. You saying things does not make them true

Marner is a playmaker. Agreed. That’s fine. He shouldn’t get paid like a top goal scorer. Which he did.

Chris Tanev doesn’t score points because he is a defensive defenseman. Ok. Great. He shouldn’t get paid like an offensive defenseman of his caliber.

You have provided ZERO evidence that historically primary assists are worth the same as goals for contracts.

Show me

Edit.
In his 3 year ELC Heatley had
80 goals and 181 points in 190 games for a pace of 35 goals and 78 points.
Which is not as close as rantanen.

Also it looks like he got 4.5 million which also would have been an 11.5% aav correct,

Did you mean someone else?

 

[francis246]

6:24. I had to actually investigate this one. Another goal in a total blowout.

: 2:47 a 360 slap shot. Wow great job marner. Also 3:40. Another slap shot.


Ok what is my point? I think I captured every goal Marner has scored in the last 5 seasons / 6 series. These goals are ugly and in blowouts lol. He's averaged 1 goal a series the last 5 seasons.

AWFUL.



I don't know when this was, I assume before the Tampa series. I think?


NO GOALS IN THE HABS or Jackets series.

edit: That's every Marner goal since Boston 2018 series lmao. This is the results of that insane extension.

Did you intentionally leave out his goal against Florida? Was the only member of the core 4 to score in that series and kept us alive in game 4 in that series.

 

[thewave]

Did you intentionally leave out his goal against Florida? Was the only member of the core 4 to score in that series and kept us alive in game 4 in that series.

This is more evidence of him not performing at his job. He is the playmaker and he was unable to help our superior goal scorers in outscoring FL. Truly sad and he essential QBs our worst ever PP.

Not a good look. Very sus 11m performance.

 

[mjd1001]

Blast from the past……….


Roger that……..


What if your toolbox is missing tools?????


Indeed…….


People have been saying that about this supposed window for years……..

Not me, I always viewed the prime of the window to be when Marner/Matthews/Nylander were in the 26-29 age range. This year and next are the peak of that window.

 

[Nineteen67]

Leafs have 4 of the top 12 highest contracts AAV in the NHL, while the other 31 teams combined for the other 8 combined. That is complete lunacy in a Salary Cap world using up 53% of their entire cap space.

And we don’t know if they’re even talented enough to compete for a Cup. Try and try to find complementary players and yet the reality they’ve never shown they’re good enough.

Re-signing Marner while keeping Nylander and Matthews could eliminate them from any chance of winning. Matthews has done nothing in his career to indicate he has a clue what it takes to win a Cup.

 

[francis246]

This is more evidence of him not performing at his job. He is the playmaker and he was unable to help our superior goal scorers in outscoring FL. Truly sad and he essential QBs our worst ever PP.

Not a good look. Very sus 11m performance.

That’s a strawman argument. And you’re confusing me, weren’t you among the vast majority saying Matthews doesn’t need Marner to score, Now you’re blaming Marner for Matthews inability to score? Makes no sense. Which is it? Matthews was the worst leaf against Florida. Marner wasn’t great either but that series is largely on Matthews. He is supposed to be our leader and couldn’t even pot 1 goal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

which player was this?

Heatley.

My metrics were largely raw and pace goals and points. P/pg was not my only or even most accurate contract predictor

P/GP is point pace. Which is what you've used, except when inserting goals inconsistently.

If you are trying to compare a 40 goal player from 20 years ago to now. It’s pretty silly.

Comparing a 0.95 and 0.93 P/GP player isn't silly at all. You compare to older players all the time. Again, this isn't a highly populated range.

you are just deciding primary assists are worth the same as goals with no proof.

No, you're randomly deciding that goals are worth more with no proof.

They are not listed on even basic sports websites such as the nhl website.

Yes they are.

Marner is a playmaker. Agreed. That’s fine. He shouldn’t get paid like a top goal scorer.

He should if he's as good or better than them. Playstyle is irrelevant.

 

[thewave]

That’s a strawman argument. And you’re confusing me, weren’t you among the vast majority saying Matthews doesn’t need Marner to score, Now you’re blaming Marner for Matthews inability to score? Makes no sense. Which is it? Matthews was the worst leaf against Florida. Marner wasn’t great either but that series is largely on Matthews. He is supposed to be our leader and couldn’t even pot 1 goal.

I am suggesting maybe Marner is sabotaging the pp inadvertently due to his overthinking and lack of ability to perform under pressure.

No straw here just concrete

 

[Legion34]

Heatley.

P/GP is point pace. Which is what you've used, except when inserting goals inconsistently.

Comparing a 0.95 and 0.93 P/GP player isn't silly at all. You compare to older players all the time. Again, this isn't a highly populated range.

No, you're randomly deciding that goals are worth more with no proof.

Yes they are.

He should if he's as good or better than them. Playstyle is irrelevant.

1.) again. Marner was closer in age/years played and performance to miko then Heatley

Marner had a 23 goal 76 pt pace. .93
Milko had a 29 goal 74 pt pace. .91
Heatley had 35 goal 78 pt pace. .95

Mikko and heatley were in the 11s not 13.4. Mikko is clearly the best comparable.

2.) goals are absolutely worth more than primary assists in the game (it’s not a primary assist contest) awards and the NHL website. You are just deciding that primary assists lead to higher contracts. With NO evidence. There is evidence that top goal scorers get higjer contracts (Nash/kovy etc). Jonas Siegel writing articles about primary points does not make them equal.

3.) there were no projections of Marner at that level based on stats. Evolving Wild had him at 9.6 x6 which would be an 11.6% aav.
Ian tulloch had him at 6 x9.1. Sean o Leary (the score) had him at 9.25 x 6

Show one analysis that projected this


4.) “playstyle”’is a useless term from video games. Players are grouped on position and production. Marner didn’t produce enough goals for his cap. It’s just true.

You have zero proof of the things you are saying

Previous contracts show Marner in the 11-12 range. He got 13.4

 

[Gary Nylund]

Did you intentionally leave out his goal against Florida? Was the only member of the core 4 to score in that series and kept us alive in game 4 in that series.

What I remember was that we were down 2-0 in the series, game 3 was do or die because coming back from 3-0 down almost never happens. In game 3 with the season on the line, Marner played possibly the worst game of his career, he was possible the worst player on the ice, and that was possibly the most damning piece of evidence to that point that the kid simply can not handle the pressure.

Then we were down 3-0 in the series so it was basically over, the pressure was off so then he scored. Big deal. That's Marner's specialty - putting points on the board that don't matter much.

 

[diceman934]

Such a laughable post, I seriously think you do not watch games at all or lack an understanding of what you are watching.

Marner benefits from playing with Matthews as seen by the goal totals.

You validate Marner on the 1st line because Matthews “scores goals”???

Newsflash genius: Matthews scores goals because he can, not because of anything magical or crucial that Marner does.

Matthew’s scores goals because he is a goal scorer, and he scores with anyone.

He doesn’t need Marner on his line to score, he just needs a stick in his hand.

Thanks for the laugh, but I think you should try harder.

Marner allows his line mates to score goals. Yes Mathews would score with any line mate but not at the same rate. His best goal scoring years are with Marner, Same as JT and Kadri as well as JVR
Marner is among the best passers in the NHL. As far as hockey knowledge goes your post prove you are a person who echoes others and seriously has no idea of what you watch. I made a living in hockey.

 

[diceman934]

Big benefits playing with Marner:

Matthews g/60 with Marner:
2024 - 1.58 g/60
2023 - 1.33 g/60

Matthews g/60 with:
2024 Domi - 3.19 g/60
2019 Marleau - 1.8 g/60

Why not compare the actual goals that Mathews scores with his line mates. Using a small sample size as argument is a joke.

View attachment 919198

Is 0.4 expected goals per 60 good ?

Great...
A small sample size to prove nothing

 

[francis246]

What I remember was that we were down 2-0 in the series, game 3 was do or die because coming back from 3-0 down almost never happens. In game 3 with the season on the line, Marner played possibly the worst game of his career, he was possible the worst player on the ice, and that was possibly the most damning piece of evidence to that point that the kid simply can not handle the pressure.

Then we were down 3-0 in the series so it was basically over, the pressure was off so then he scored. Big deal. That's Marner's specialty - putting points on the board that don't matter much.

The pressure was not off. That game was an incredibly tight checked game. There was never a game in the series were Florida let up. That was a 2-1 win in game 4 if I remember correctly. But go off king! Recreate history to fit your narrative!!

 

[diceman934]

What I remember was that we were down 2-0 in the series, game 3 was do or die because coming back from 3-0 down almost never happens. In game 3 with the season on the line, Marner played possibly the worst game of his career, he was possible the worst player on the ice, and that was possibly the most damning piece of evidence to that point that the kid simply can not handle the pressure.

Then we were down 3-0 in the series so it was basically over, the pressure was off so then he scored. Big deal. That's Marner's specialty - putting points on the board that don't matter much.

But you said he does nothing in elimination games.

 

[diceman934]

It`s this.

Unless Tre wants to `tinker around the edges` for the next 8 years.

You have to risk getting worse to build something better.




Hopefully Stolarz and Woll are due big raises.

Tre picked Nylander over Marner.

If he picked Nylander or Marner we are in serious trouble. He simply signed Nylander because his contract wad coming due. Same as he will SIGN marner as his contract is coming due.

 

[francis246]

But you said he does nothing in elimination games.

Exactly, they pick and choose when the narrative fits them. Marner scores an EV goal in an elimination goal and they say, “ oh the pressure was off” so that game doesn’t count. It’s honestly absurd.

The pressure was at an all time high. If they lost that game the series is over.

Didn’t they make a big fuss about elimination games being the most important games in a series?

 

[thewave]

But you said he does nothing in elimination games.

Being down 3-0 is not an elimination game. It's a forgone conclusion that the team down is out. 95%

We all know that

 

[francis246]

Being down 3-0 is not an elimination game. It's a forgone conclusion that the team down is out. 95%

We all know that

Oh my God you cannot make it up. Didn’t people make this exact argument earlier this summer about the importance of jumping up early in a series vs having to play in games 5,6 &7 and you and many others argue against them of how bullshit that stat was? Now you’re using it?

 

[Gary Nylund]

The pressure was not off. That game was an incredibly tight checked game. There was never a game in the series were Florida let up. That was a 2-1 win in game 4 if I remember correctly. But go off king! Recreate history to fit your narrative!!

Go King? Recreate history? Calm down a bit maybe, no need to get all excited.

I never said anything about Florida letting up, maybe you should stop "recreating" my posts. I think most people would agree that when the series is 3-0, it's all but over. And when it's all but over, the pressure is off which is what I said.

But you said he does nothing in elimination games.

Nope. I may have mentioned his lack of effectiveness in game 7's, but there's a world of difference between game 7 when your entire season is down to one game, and a game 4 when you're down 3-0 and your season is all but over.

BTW I asked you a while back when you were pumping up your boy what you thought of his play in game 3. You never did answer, but I think we know that's because you are reluctant to post outright lies, but you're even more reluctant to ever accept any criticism of your two golden boys.

 

[diceman934]

You should get into stand up

Worse take I have read on here ever and that is saying a lot.

Being down 3-0 is not an elimination game. It's a forgone conclusion that the team down is out. 95%

We all know that

So it was not an elimination game then.. who knew

 

[francis246]

Go King? Recreate history? Calm down a bit maybe, no need to get all excited.

I never said anything about Florida letting up, maybe you should stop "recreating" my posts. I think most people would agree that when the series is 3-0, it's all but over. And when it's all but over, the pressure is off which is what I said.

Nope. I may have mentioned his lack of effectiveness in game 7's, but there's a world of difference between game 7 when your entire season is down to one game, and a game 4 when you're down 3-0 and your season is all but over.

BTW I asked you a while back when you were pumping up your boy what you thought of his play in game 3. You never did answer, but I think we know that's because you are reluctant to post outright lies, but you're even more reluctant to ever accept any criticism of your two golden boys.

Except the pressure was not off. Florida did not let up. Florida had 25 SOG and tied the leafs. Every game except for game one was decided by one goal. The pressure wasn’t off at all. Florida themselves had just come back from being down 3-1. Do you think they honestly took game 4 lightly? Hell no, if anything their mindset was to finish the leafs off and not let the leafs back into the series.

 

[thusk]

How many goals will Matthews, Nylander and Tavares need to score to validate Marner's new next contract?

Auston, Willy and Tavares as $11 mil + players are all on their own lines driving offense individually as any player making that amount would be expected to, but Marner the only other $11 mil player needs to ALWAYS ride shotgun with another top player and the only one that can't be put on his own line to drive offense.

That essentially makes Marner a passenger in the offense based on his utilization,

Why is Marner not playing with Domi and McMann while Nylander getting the free ride playing alongside Matthews and/or Tavares and propping up his personal stats via his teammates productivity and goal scoring?

That is why it makes Marner the most disposable/dispensable of the core 4 where the other 3 can each drive their own lines in a top 9. You could turn Marner's future $12 mil into a $6 mil top 6 winger and $6 mil Dman defender and increase the teams depth and skill in multiple players instead of just one.

even at 20 he was team pts leader and was playing with none of matthews/ Tavares. He was playibg alongside Kadri and Marleau or bozak and JVR, in playoff he outplayed bergeron line playing alongside plekanec and marleau.

After Marner played alongside jt or matthews basially all the time because its the kind of player ( contrairly to what some people here think) coach love and want to see a lot on the ice.

But im agree i would also like to see marner and matthews being split and would like to see a kind of Knies-Gourde/ Jenner-Marner line.