Player Discussion Marner

[diceman934]

Go King? Recreate history? Calm down a bit maybe, no need to get all excited.

I never said anything about Florida letting up, maybe you should stop "recreating" my posts. I think most people would agree that when the series is 3-0, it's all but over. And when it's all but over, the pressure is off which is what I said.

Nope. I may have mentioned his lack of effectiveness in game 7's, but there's a world of difference between game 7 when your entire season is down to one game, and a game 4 when you're down 3-0 and your season is all but over.

BTW I asked you a while back when you were pumping up your boy what you thought of his play in game 3. You never did answer, but I think we know that's because you are reluctant to post outright lies, but you're even more reluctant to ever accept any criticism of your two golden boys.

Your focus on a single game is irrelevant as it is the over results that matter. I post for Marner because he is a great player period and the irrational posts from poster such as your self about Marner is beyond silly. He is among the top 10 players in the league and you and others attempt to make he out as a second tier player who is only good because he plays with Mathews etc
Rielly is a good defense man who I coached when he was on high school and I am a little biased but I have always admitted that. He took less money on his last 2 contracts to be a Leaf and does not complain when inferior players are given his spot on the power play. He should still be on pp1 as he is far more effective at keeping plays alive.

 

[francis246]

What I remember was that we were down 2-0 in the series, game 3 was do or die because coming back from 3-0 down almost never happens. In game 3 with the season on the line, Marner played possibly the worst game of his career, he was possible the worst player on the ice, and that was possibly the most damning piece of evidence to that point that the kid simply can not handle the pressure.

Then we were down 3-0 in the series so it was basically over, the pressure was off so then he scored. Big deal. That's Marner's specialty - putting points on the board that don't matter much.

I’ll try and keep it simple and civil. My biggest issue with this post is that it’s disingenuous. If Nylander or Matthews had scored that goal, you would not be using this argument. In fact you would use that goal to further support how both are more clutch than Marner.

 

[diceman934]

Oh my God you cannot make it up. Didn’t people make this exact argument earlier this summer about the importance of jumping up early in a series vs having to play in games 5,6 &7 and you and many others argue against them of how bullshit that stat was? Now you’re using it?

He always does that...speaks out of both sides of his mouth when it suits his narrative

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner was closer in age/years played and performance to miko then Heatley

Heatley was 0.02 P/GP away and Rantanen was 0.06. Certainly not an age difference that makes things completely incomparable. Why are you so scared of more comparables?

Mikko and heatley were in the 11s not 13.4.

Heatley was in the 11s on a bridge, which are cheaper - putting his valuation for a 6 year deal above Marner. Weird how you left out that part.

You are just deciding that primary assists lead to higher contracts. With NO evidence.

No I'm not. You're just randomly deciding that goals are worth more. With no evidence.

There is evidence that top goal scorers get higjer contracts (Nash/kovy etc).

Guess what else, other than goals, they were above average in relative to their overall production. That's right. Primary Points.

“playstyle”’is a useless term from video games. Players are grouped on position and production.

No, it's a description of how one approaches play. And you're the only one putting meaning on it.
Good players are good players. Doesn't matter whether they're setting things up, or tapping them in.
Marner showed to be a better playmaker than many of these players were as goal scorers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Except the pressure was not off. Florida did not let up. Florida had 25 SOG and tied the leafs. Every game except for game one was decided by one goal. The pressure wasn’t off at all. Florida themselves had just come back from being down 3-1. Do you think they honestly took game 4 lightly? Hell no, if anything their mindset was to finish the leafs off and not let the leafs back into the series.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. Series 2-0, game 3 there is a ton of pressure, lose that and go down, 3-0 is all but over so the level of pressure is so much less it's not even worth discussing. That's JMHO, you see things differently and that's fine.

Your focus on a single game is irrelevant as it is the over results that matter. I post for Marner because he is a great player period and the irrational posts from poster such as your self about Marner is beyond silly. He is among the top 10 players in the league and you and others attempt to make he out as a second tier player who is only good because he plays with Mathews etc
Rielly is a good defense man who I coached when he was on high school and I am a little biased but I have always admitted that. He took less money on his last 2 contracts to be a Leaf and does not complain when inferior players are given his spot on the power play. He should still be on pp1 as he is far more effective at keeping plays alive.

Don't put words in my mouth, I'd appreciate that. For starters, I've have never used the words "second tier" to describe Marner, I have never said he's "only good because he plays with Matthews etc".

Ok Marner's a top 10 player you say, explain something to me then.

Regular season, Marner scores at roughly a 100 point pace.
First 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 95 point pace.
The rest of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 40 point pace.

How do you explain this? It seems quite plausible that once teams settle in and adjust to playoff hockey, the checking gets tighter, the hits get harder, the refs don't call penalties like they do during the season, and the result is that Marner's game just isn't as effective any more.

In any case, regular season Marner is great. But playoff Marner seems to go down a couple of tiers once the first 4 games are in the books. Top 10 in the regular season, maybe, maybe not, there are a lot of good players so maybe top 20 is more accurate. Top 10 in the playoffs, not even close. JMHO.

Here's the hockey writers list of top 100, Marner's 27th. Not that this list is gospel but somewhere in the 20-30 range seems fair. I'd be curious to see your list to see which guys on this list you have Marner ahead of. I also wonder where in the 10 you have Marner. Is he 10th? Or do you have him as high as 5th maybe?

I generally respect your opinions, you clearly know a lot about hockey but you have a blind spot when it comes to Marner.

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I’ll try and keep it simple and civil. My biggest issue with this post is that it’s disingenuous. If Nylander or Matthews had scored that goal, you would not be using this argument. In fact you would use that goal to further support how both are more clutch than Marner.

Posting what you think I would say in some imaginary circumstances that you've made up adds nothing to the conversation.

 

[francis246]

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. Series 2-0, game 3 there is a ton of pressure, lose that and go down, 3-0 is all but over so the level of pressure is so much less it's not even worth discussing. That's JMHO, you see things differently and that's fine.

Don't put words in my mouth, I'd appreciate that. For starters, I've have never used the words "second tier" to describe Marner, I have never said he's "only good because he plays with Matthews etc".

Ok Marner's a top 10 player you say, explain something to me then.

Regular season, Marner scores at roughly a 100 point pace.
First 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 95 point pace.
The rest of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 40 point pace.

How do you explain this? It seems quite plausible that once teams settle in and adjust to playoff hockey, the checking gets tighter, the hits get harder, the refs don't call penalties like they do during the season, and the result is that Marner's game just isn't as effective any more.

In any case, regular season Marner is great. But playoff Marner seems to go down a couple of tiers once the first 4 games are in the books. Top 10 in the regular season, maybe, maybe not, there are a lot of good players so maybe top 20 is more accurate. Top 10 in the playoffs, not even close. JMHO.


Posting what you think I would say in some imaginary circumstances that you've made up adds nothing to the conversation.

Haha exactly the response I’d expect, because we know it’s true. It’s okay lol.

 

[Legion34]

Heatley was 0.02 P/GP away and Rantanen was 0.06. Certainly not an age difference that makes things completely incomparable. Why are you so scared of more comparables?

Heatley was in the 11s on a bridge, which are cheaper - putting his valuation for a 6 year deal above Marner. Weird how you left out that part.

No I'm not. You're just randomly deciding that goals are worth more. With no evidence.

Guess what else, other than goals, they were above average in relative to their overall production. That's right. Primary Points.

No, it's a description of how one approaches play. And you're the only one putting meaning on it.
Good players are good players. Doesn't matter whether they're setting things up, or tapping them in.
Marner showed to be a better playmaker than many of these players were as goal scorers.

1.) I did. I used goals too. Marner wasn’t close.

the comparables have been listed. Marner is clearly closer to rantanen. Comparing Marner to a 40 goal scorer who played in the pre cap era instead of a player who played the exact same season is embarrassing and you know it.

2.) primary points is not a recognized category by the NHL. It’s something that is on independent websites. This is silly.

3.) goals are worth more in the market place based on goal scorers being paid more. Ie Perry over getzlaf. Nash. Kovy etc.

4.) you have shown zero precedent for any player of his ilk getting 13.4%. You also can’t point to a single projection. Because they weren’t there
Marner got overpaid.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Haha exactly the response I’d expect, because we know it’s true. It’s okay lol.

What's true, the BS that you made up? Come on dude, I think you're better than this. I've made thousands of posts here over the years, if I post something you want to debate that's cool but making stuff up is juvenile.

Your focus on a single game is irrelevant as it is the over results that matter.

What focus? I've posted about Marner's entire body of work, that one game was just unforgettable because in the biggest game of the year, he played at replacement player level and was fumbling the puck like a nervous rookie.

For 11 million a year, is it wrong to expect more from a player who according to you is a top 10 player?

 

[thewave]

He always does that...speaks out of both sides of his mouth when it suits his narrative

This is not true. I have maintained my relative position on Marner for years now. Even from the draft I have not veered much at all. Comparatively to a lot of posters here I have been a steady eddy. I mean that and being mostly right as well.

Refresher.

Called Dubas out on day 1

Was not a fan of the Marner pick. Dman pref

Matthews GOAT day 1

Said Nylander could be the best of the 3 potentially. He absolutely is some nights.

Keefe a terrible coach day 1

Suspect D and Tending

Trading assets for a miracle ludicrousy

and on and on I am right along with some really awesome posters in this thread that are even better at being incredibly super good scouting.

 

[Confucius]

The only way to settle this is to not sign. Or the megafans will go on forever with how great advanced stats he got ,and the critics will go on forever on how he folds under pressure.

Would we be crap without him or would the needle not move to much at all?

Berube obviously loves Marner, why else would he get more icetime than any other forward. I can remember posts from last summer on how he would have to earn his icetime.

 

[sunstersun]

This is not true. I have maintained my relative position on Marner for years now. Even from the draft I have not veered much at all. Comparatively to a lot of posters here I have been a steady eddy. I mean that and being mostly right as well.

Refresher.

Called Dubas out on day 1

Was not a fan of the Marner pick. Dman pref

Matthews GOAT day 1

Said Nylander could be the best of the 3 potentially. He absolutely is some nights.

Keefe a terrible coach day 1

Suspect D and Tending

Trading assets for a miracle ludicrousy

and on and on I am right along with some really awesome posters in this thread that are even better at being incredibly super good scouting.

Picking Marner wasn't a mistake.

Not trading him after the Habs series was. 4 years. 24 year old. We could have got a kings ransom.

 

[Antropovsky]

Did you intentionally leave out his goal against Florida? Was the only member of the core 4 to score in that series and kept us alive in game 4 in that series.

If Marner didn't have that ridiculous game-losing giveaway in Game 3, we wouldn’t have needed to fight for survival in Game 4. Why does that sound so familiar? Another game-losing mistake by Marner? Oh right he has BY FAR the most among all leaf players and not just giveaways... idiotic inexcuseable giveaways.

And please don't tell me you're giving him props for a 40-foot wrist shot? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Play anyone 20 minutes a game and let them take enough shots from 40+ feet, they’re bound to score a few. That doesn’t make it impressive.

This is more of an example of what’s wrong with Marner than a credit to him. He’s never anywhere near the net. Sure, a guy playing 20 minutes a night will score a few goals shooting from that distance, especially when his linemates are doing all the hard work in front of the goalie. Cody Franson scored goals like that all the time. Should we have signed him for $11 million? Play him 20 minutes a night, and he might’ve scored more from out there than Marner does.

Here is the sportsnet article following that same postseason, where the writer indicated that Marner playing far far away from the net could be the reason for Matthews poor statistics:

 

[Dekes For Days]

Comparing Marner to a 40 goal scorer who played in the pre cap era instead of a player who played the exact same season is embarrassing and you know it.

Your attempts to restrict comparisons to exclusively your one chosen comparable and exclusively your couple cherry picked stats, while excluding all critical context and considerations and dumping on playmaking, is what is embarrassing, and you know it.

primary points is not a recognized category by the NHL.

It literally shows the distinction on the NHL website. Per-60 metrics too. In fact, per-60 has been used for the main powerplay stat page for decades!

goals are worth more in the market place

You have no evidence of that. The only argument you've cobbled together (which isn't even evidence) also applies to primary points.

You also can’t point to a single projection.

Projection models don't tend to do well with a limited data set and unprecedented situations or context. They were pretty bad in general 5+ years ago.
You don't seem to care about them either, considering that you said Matthews' contract was correct.

Marner got overpaid.

Objectively, he didn't.

 

[Antropovsky]

If Marner didn't have that ridiculous game-losing giveaway in Game 3, we wouldn’t have needed to fight for survival in Game 4. Why does that sound so familiar? Another game-losing mistake by Marner? Oh right he has BY FAR the most among all leaf players and not just giveaways... idiotic inexcuseable giveaways.

And please don't tell me you're giving him props for a 40-foot wrist shot? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Play anyone 20 minutes a game and let them take enough shots from 40+ feet, they’re bound to score a few. That doesn’t make it impressive.

This is more of an example of what’s wrong with Marner than a credit to him. He’s never anywhere near the net. Sure, a guy playing 20 minutes a night will score a few goals shooting from that distance, especially when his linemates are doing all the hard work in front of the goalie. Cody Franson scored goals like that all the time. Should we have signed him for $11 million? Play him 20 minutes a night, and he might’ve scored more from out there than Marner does.

Here is the sportsnet article following that same postseason, where the writer indicated that Marner playing far far away from the net could be the reason for Matthews poor statistics:

... so while looking for the link to the above article I referenced, I just now realized a followup article was written last playoffs where Sportsnet author said, once again Marner was the core 4s "wild outlier" playing way too far away from the net!

2 years in a row, Marner playing the perimeter more than any core 4 player!

Thoughts after Toronto's Game 3 loss: Go to the net, Mitch

After Toronto's Game 3 loss at home to Boston, Justin Bourne shares his takeaways from the game, including how to get Mitch Marner going, why TJ Brodie should draw into the lineup, and more.

www.google.com

When the Leafs lost in last year’s playoffs, I wrote about how their core players struggled to get in close to the net. But really, Marner was a wild outlier compared to the other three. These were their average shot distances (measured in feet from the net on average) in last year’s playoffs, compared to the regular season:

And the percentage of their shots that were from the slot were mostly worse compared to the regular season, too. Matthews got better, but the rest not so much:

Well, it’s happening again this season, albeit over a very small sample.

Here’s the Leafs’ average shooting distance among the three core forwards who’ve played in the playoffs so far, comparing playoffs to regular season:

And the percentage of their shots that are coming from the slot:

We think of Marner as a pure passer because he’s elite at it, but he’s also scored over 90 times the past three seasons. That ain’t gonna happen from the outside, so being on the goal line on the power play may help Marner get to better finishing spots

 

[thewave]

Picking Marner wasn't a mistake.

Not trading him after the Habs series was. 4 years. 24 year old. We could have got a kings ransom.

I agree that would be fine.

It was floated that we trade down and up to get Provorov or Werenski and Barzal at the time.

 

[sunstersun]

Disgusting overpassing again.

 

[Legion34]

Your attempts to restrict comparisons to exclusively your one chosen comparable and exclusively your couple cherry picked stats, while excluding all critical context and considerations and dumping on playmaking, is what is embarrassing, and you know it.

It literally shows the distinction on the NHL website. Per-60 metrics too. In fact, per-60 has been used for the main powerplay stat page for decades!

You have no evidence of that. The only argument you've cobbled together (which isn't even evidence) also applies to primary points.

Projection models don't tend to do well with a limited data set and unprecedented situations or context. They were pretty bad in general 5+ years ago.
You don't seem to care about them either, considering that you said Matthews' contract was correct.

Objectively, he didn't.

I see nothing of primary points on the website and it doesn’t come up in the glossary.

There are primary assists. Which is not the stats nerds definition which foolishly attempts to combine goals and primary assists. Primary points and primary assists are not the same.

Again no matter what you say you cannot provide a single example of a 23 goal 76 point average ELC player making 13.4% x 6

You can’t provide a stats site/model that projected Marner making this much.

Because they don’t exist

Saying Marner is some unicorn when he has a clear direct comparable is silly

 

[Antropovsky]

Disgusting overpassing again.

Hey now, Marner got a point once another 11.5 million (Nylander) was added to his line and made a great pass to him Lol

 

[francis246]

If Marner didn't have that ridiculous game-losing giveaway in Game 3, we wouldn’t have needed to fight for survival in Game 4. Why does that sound so familiar? Another game-losing mistake by Marner? Oh right he has BY FAR the most among all leaf players and not just giveaways... idiotic inexcuseable giveaways.

And please don't tell me you're giving him props for a 40-foot wrist shot? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Play anyone 20 minutes a game and let them take enough shots from 40+ feet, they’re bound to score a few. That doesn’t make it impressive.

This is more of an example of what’s wrong with Marner than a credit to him. He’s never anywhere near the net. Sure, a guy playing 20 minutes a night will score a few goals shooting from that distance, especially when his linemates are doing all the hard work in front of the goalie. Cody Franson scored goals like that all the time. Should we have signed him for $11 million? Play him 20 minutes a night, and he might’ve scored more from out there than Marner does.

Here is the sportsnet article following that same postseason, where the writer indicated that Marner playing far far away from the net could be the reason for Matthews poor statistics:

Mr. Qualitatively Quantify goals to the rescue lmao

 

[francis246]

Picking Marner wasn't a mistake.

Not trading him after the Habs series was. 4 years. 24 year old. We could have got a kings ransom.

This I absolutely agree with.

You can even go a step further, not picking Konecny or Aho to give yourself more forward depth to trade for a defenseman in the future was even more short sighted. I understand trading back but there were good players on the board at 24.

 

[thusk]

Hey now, Marner got a point once another 11.5 million (Nylander) was added to his line and made a great pass to him Lol

Nylander doing that pass = oh great pass and marner got a pts because of nylander

Just switching marner and nylander on the same exact play than = Marner just get a free pts with Nylander driving the play

Your double standard are just amaizing

 

[supermann_98]

Disgusting overpassing again.

Has to pass, his muffin shot ain't going in

 

[ACC1224]

Another really strong game. Easily the most consistent forward this season, been really good if we’re allowed to be honest.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There are primary assists.

Exactly. Which means you have both components of primary production.

Saying Marner is some unicorn when he has a clear direct comparable is silly

He didn't have a direct comparable. He had 5 players that were better than him. He makes less than all of them. The rest were worse than him.
Of the lesser players closer to him, some make a bit less (consistent with the gap between them), and some make more.

 

[thewave]

Exactly. Which means you have both components of primary production.

He didn't have a direct comparable. He had 5 players that were better than him. He makes less than all of them. The rest were worse than him.
Of the lesser players closer to him, some make a bit less (consistent with the gap between them), and some make more.

As Willy is pulling far far away from Marner in the ways of importance or relevance. How do you see a future contract unfolding. I don't see WN performance or anything close to it coming out of Marner right now. He looks like a kid out there comparably.

This is not just about points BTW. WN is legit driving lines out there and MM is absolutely not


What have you to say?