Player Discussion Marner

[arso40]

Wich one?

He was pts leader at 94... Jt had his best season ever reaching for the 1st time of his career 40 goal ( 47) playing alongside marner. He was already playing against the Bergeron line at 20

Tell me wich leverage leafs had at this moment?!?!?!

In 2019, Marner was probably a better player than Matthews... After Matthews raise some part of his game like the defensive side and became a better all around player but still when both signed, Marner was at least as high than Matthews... People forgot pretty fast here and yes a lot of thing changed last 5...

HE WAS NEVER and I can’t emphasize NEVER enough, better than Matthews at no point in there nhl careers full stop.

 

[Gary Nylund]

HE WAS NEVER and I can’t emphasize NEVER enough, better than Matthews at no point in there nhl careers full stop.

Believe it or not, I'm pretty sure there are some people who even today would say Marner is better than Matthews. It's weird.

 

[ZEBROA]

All top players are overpaid in Toronto...

I would trade mitch for rantanen. Put him as 2nd line c with Nylander bros.

 

[sena]

Why does that make a difference? There nothing to suggest that makes up for 1.7 million.

its Generally raw points (total goals/points over ELC) and per game.

the difference is being the main producer on your team or not. Ice time points and dependability make a massive difference. He outscored two guys making over 11 million on the team,
he was used more and trusted more.
Wait untill you see both guys next contract after this year.....

 

[francis246]

HE WAS NEVER and I can’t emphasize NEVER enough, better than Matthews at no point in there nhl careers full stop.

Meh. You’re actually wrong. I’d say there’s a legitimate argument that Marner was slightly better in the ELC years. Marner out produced Matthews in total points. Matthews was definitely the better goal scorer but Marner was a more complete player by year 3. Marner had an outstanding 17/18 playoffs and Matthews had a really good 18/19 playoffs.


Matthews really separated himself during the 19/20 season. And it hasn’t been close since then. I get hating on Marner is the flavour of the day right now but let’s be honest. Most people didn’t even know whether Matthews was going to be healthy yearly in the first three years to be a consistently healthy impactful player. Many hockey fans were still questioning whether Matthews was a legit first overall talent. He put that slander to bed after the 19/20.

I think looking at it objectively Marner was the better overall player in the first three years but he’s plateaued. Where as Matthews has grown in many ways from becoming a more dynamic goal scorer to growing his two way game and becoming the leader of the team.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Tbh Marner 18/19 was very close to Matthews 18/19 and not just point totals, but how important they were to the team and driving its offence. 17/18 less so, but still somewhat comparable. 18/19 though I could see Marner being argued as better.

I agree with Francis saying 19/20 onwards Matthews really seperated himself.

 

[notDatsyuk]

All top players are overpaid in Toronto...

I would trade mitch for rantanen. Put him as 2nd line c with Nylander bros.

But would Colorado, and how much would we have to add?

 

[thusk]

It would be extremely funny came back with 2019 post

Isn't it obvious? Marner's RFA status. Sign and play, or don't sign and don't play.

easy to say for sure, harder to especially with contract Dubas gave before. When your salary depht chart is broken, its hard to convince your own player to take a duscount you didn't gave on previous similar contract and with whats happening with Nylander a year ago... i dont think dubas wanted to get back ib the same situation

 

[arso40]

Tbh Marner 18/19 was very close to Matthews 18/19 and not just point totals, but how important they were to the team and driving its offence. 17/18 less so, but still somewhat comparable. 18/19 though I could see Marner being argued as better.

I agree with Francis saying 19/20 onwards Matthews really seperated himself.

Just cause one coach doesn’t want to play one person on the pk doesn’t mean he’s a better defender you guys are actually serious?quit it

Meh. You’re actually wrong. I’d say there’s a legitimate argument that Marner was slightly better in the ELC years. Marner out produced Matthews in total points. Matthews was definitely the better goal scorer but Marner was a more complete player by year 3. Marner had an outstanding 17/18 playoffs and Matthews had a really good 18/19 playoffs.


Matthews really separated himself during the 19/20 season. And it hasn’t been close since then. I get hating on Marner is the flavour of the day right now but let’s be honest. Most people didn’t even know whether Matthews was going to be healthy yearly in the first three years to be a consistently healthy impactful player. Many hockey fans were still questioning whether Matthews was a legit first overall talent. He put that slander to bed after the 19/20.

I think looking at it objectively Marner was the better overall player in the first three years but he’s plateaued. Where as Matthews has grown in many ways from becoming a more dynamic goal scorer to growing his two way game and becoming the leader of the team.

No your actually wrong I stand on what I said and you can’t prove he was name whatever stat you want he’s never been better than Matthews period eye test tells you that play Matthews with all the garbage in the world and he still comes out a plus player and still produces can’t say the same for mitchy at all since his rookie season he was put in a position to succeed and he still can’t out perform Matthews on his best day points tell a small part of the story

 

[IPS]

I would trade mitch for rantanen. Put him as 2nd line c with Nylander bros.

You'd be insane not to. Rantanen is an absolute stud in the posteason.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The history of contracts is evidence that forwards get paid based on production not pk. Post Elcs are based all 3 years with actual production (total goals/points) and per game taken into account. Goals are worth more with equal production.

I'm not sure where you got some of your ideas, but they're not supported by contract history. Historically, a lot of things factor into compensation. Production impacts are the primary driving factor, but they are far from the only one, and while points are often a 'good enough' proxy, they are far from perfect, and can skew away from actual production impacts. Just as you would take into account per-game metrics to add context to production and prevent skewed conclusions as a result of opportunity discrepancies outside of the player's control, you would similarly take into account per-60 metrics to add context to production and prevent skewed conclusions for the same reasons.

If you want to believe that a contract negotiation just means looking up points/goal and their corresponding cap hit on a chart, then that's your choice, but if you had actually looked through the history of contracts, you would know that's not true. I don't really know how to give you what you want in a way that you would understand and accept, especially when you're making demands like "Show evidence that same age players with equal raw production have 18% contract differences based on primary vs secondary points." Like what? The only reason primary/secondary points were even discussed was because you tried to make an incorrect claim about a value discrepancy between goals and primary assists, in an effort to give bonus points to Rantanen for the role he performed on the PP. The 18% contract gap is based primarily on the significant production gap that existed between them, as I've shown you multiple times.

No, there is no clone of Marner, and quite frankly, direct comparables are few and far between. He is a pretty unique player, that experienced a pretty unique situation, and both his results and contract occupy a range that is historically quite rare. Clearly below the top tier, but clearly above the second tier. That's why we looked at a comparable in the second tier, and compared the gaps that existed. Marner's contract was consistent with Rantanen's, and the wider history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[Sypher04]

Meh. You’re actually wrong. I’d say there’s a legitimate argument that Marner was slightly better in the ELC years. Marner out produced Matthews in total points. Matthews was definitely the better goal scorer but Marner was a more complete player by year 3. Marner had an outstanding 17/18 playoffs and Matthews had a really good 18/19 playoffs.


Matthews really separated himself during the 19/20 season. And it hasn’t been close since then. I get hating on Marner is the flavour of the day right now but let’s be honest. Most people didn’t even know whether Matthews was going to be healthy yearly in the first three years to be a consistently healthy impactful player. Many hockey fans were still questioning whether Matthews was a legit first overall talent. He put that slander to bed after the 19/20.

I think looking at it objectively Marner was the better overall player in the first three years but he’s plateaued. Where as Matthews has grown in many ways from becoming a more dynamic goal scorer to growing his two way game and becoming the leader of the team.

I agree with the overall sentiment of this post. The only part I’d push back on is the idea Marner was a more complete player earlier in their careers.

I think one excels at goalscoring heavily, one excels at playmaking heavily. Matthews however has been the better two way player at every step imo even if it wasn’t really recognized earlier on by many.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm pretty sure that the suggestion is just letting him walk.

He specifically said trade for help elsewhere at the end of the 2024-2025 season in the context of replicating the Tkachuk trade, so I don't think even he knew what he meant.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It would be extremely funny came back with 2019 post

easy to say for sure, harder to especially with contract Dubas gave before. When your salary depht chart is broken, its hard to convince your own player to take a duscount you didn't gave on previous similar contract and with whats happening with Nylander a year ago... i dont think dubas wanted to get back ib the same situation

Easy, hard, whatever. You asked me what leverage the Leafs had and I answered. They paid a RFA as if he was a UFA, moronic.

 

[francis246]

Just cause one coach doesn’t want to play one person on the pk doesn’t mean he’s a better defender you guys are actually serious?quit it


No your actually wrong I stand on what I said and you can’t prove he was name whatever stat you want he’s never been better than Matthews period eye test tells you that play Matthews with all the garbage in the world and he still comes out a plus player and still produces can’t say the same for mitchy at all since his rookie season he was put in a position to succeed and he still can’t out perform Matthews on his best day points tell a small part of the story

You’re not really backing anything up, you’re just speaking from emotion tbh. So it’s all good.

I don’t really think the ELC years were a huge gap like you’re claiming. Both were very important to the team and drove offense in different ways. Matthews was a very good offensive player but he was not refined on the defensive end like he is now and he couldn’t stay healthy which made him shy away from physical contact. That was a huge knock on him from 2017-2019. Matthews played scared. Marner showed he is a more defensively responsible forward who will make high risk plays. But Marner’s overall game matured quicker than Matthews. Additionally Marner wasn’t even playing heavy PK minutes during that time. But Babcock really forced him to be defensively responsible and that was evident in years 2 & 3

Like I said after 2019 it hasn’t been close.

I think if you ask a lot of people they were really high on Marner being the more complete player. The contract negotiations completely changed most of the fan bases perspective on Marner. I’ve been around these boards for a long time. People loved Marner in his ELC years. I think people were more skeptical of what Matthews would actually pan out to be.

 

[francis246]

I agree with the overall sentiment of this post. The only part I’d push back on is the idea Marner was a more complete player earlier in their careers.

I think one excels at goalscoring heavily, one excels at playmaking heavily. Matthews however has been the better two way player at every step imo even if it wasn’t really recognized earlier on by many.

Absolutely and I’ll even rephrase: I think Marner was put into more defensive situations because Babcock wanted to refine that part of his game. Babcock wanted Marner to become more defensively responsible. To be honest I don’t think Marner even hates Babcock that much. He helped that core elevate into good players. His tactics were crazy but somewhat effective.

 

[thusk]

Easy, hard, whatever. You asked me what leverage the Leafs had and I answered. They paid a RFA as if he was a UFA, moronic.

the day you're etablish your own standard at 11M in your team for those in your system, you created your own standsrd at this salary... and costimg you your negociation weapon

 

[Legion34]

I'm not sure where you got some of your ideas, but they're not supported by contract history. Historically, a lot of things factor into compensation. Production impacts are the primary driving factor, but they are far from the only one, and while points are often a 'good enough' proxy, they are far from perfect, and can skew away from actual production impacts. Just as you would take into account per-game metrics to add context to production and prevent skewed conclusions as a result of opportunity discrepancies outside of the player's control, you would similarly take into account per-60 metrics to add context to production and prevent skewed conclusions for the same reasons.

If you want to believe that a contract negotiation just means looking up points/goal and their corresponding cap hit on a chart, then that's your choice, but if you had actually looked through the history of contracts, you would know that's not true. I don't really know how to give you what you want in a way that you would understand and accept, especially when you're making demands like "Show evidence that same age players with equal raw production have 18% contract differences based on primary vs secondary points." Like what? The only reason primary/secondary points were even discussed was because you tried to make an incorrect claim about a value discrepancy between goals and primary assists, in an effort to give bonus points to Rantanen for the role he performed on the PP. The 18% contract gap is based primarily on the significant production gap that existed between them, as I've shown you multiple times.

No, there is no clone of Marner, and quite frankly, direct comparables are few and far between. He is a pretty unique player, that experienced a pretty unique situation, and both his results and contract occupy a range that is historically quite rare. Clearly below the top tier, but clearly above the second tier. That's why we looked at a comparable in the second tier, and compared the gaps that existed. Marner's contract was consistent with Rantanen's, and the wider history of post-ELC contracts.

You haven’t shown a production gap. You made one up. Production is actual results.

Goals/assists/points.

Marner had 13 less goals. And 15 more points. Thats production
Over 3 years Marner produced 13 less goals.

All the other percentages you gave are meaningless to production.

you mean projection. Which can factor in, but to a lesser degree than actual production in case of injury.

It’s very easy. You are the one claiming that the history of post ELC contracts shows that marners primary point production despite having almost identical points dictates an 18% salary descrepancy.

Show me. Show me an example of two similarly producing same position players who have an 18% descrepancy

Where is it?

 

[Gabriel426]

Believe it or not, I'm pretty sure there are some people who even today would say Marner is better than Matthews. It's weird.

What do mean MM is not better than AM.

He is supposed to be the highest IQ player since Gretzky, a much better player than McD as he PK and better defensively and also is a much better than Barkov-2 time Selke Winner since MM was voted top three once or twice in Selke voting and all according to some self identified hockey experts on this board.

 

[Gary Nylund]

the day you're etablish your own standard at 11M in your team for those in your system, you created your own standsrd at this salary... and costimg you your negociation weapon

LOL what is this nonsense? Did they pay everyone 11M?

 

[notbias]

HE WAS NEVER and I can’t emphasize NEVER enough, better than Matthews at no point in there nhl careers full stop.

Marner and Matthews were on the same level at one point... Matthews has separated himself from Marner and almost everyone in the league.

 

[Gabriel426]

the day you're etablish your own standard at 11M in your team for those in your system, you created your own standsrd at this salary... and costimg you your negociation weapon

True but the team can choose to trade him after his ELC.
Just like the team choose to sign JT.
Just like how they can opt not to resign Willie and AM but they did.

Dubas could just offer 9-9.5mil to MM after his ELC and if MM and his camp choose to leave bc other teams are offering more, they could.

They played Dubas and the consequences of that is public backlash if the team and the player suck.
Which both are in the playoffs.

It really doesn’t matter how much each of our Beta Chokers sign for as long as they win Cup(s). The fact that collectively they only managed to get past the first round once in 8 years is horrible as statistically 50% of teams in the playoffs will advance to the 2nd round, which means the Leafs is way below average as a playoffs team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner and Matthews were on the same level at one point... Matthews has separated himself from Marner and almost everyone in the league.

Nope. I suppose that since "same level" is open to interpretation, there is no way to prove or disprove this with empirical evidence. That said, I think you're way off, not even close, and very few people would agree with you on this one.

 

[notbias]

Nope. I suppose that since "same level" is open to interpretation, there is no way to prove or disprove this with empirical evidence. That said, I think you're way off, not even close, and very few people would agree with you on this one.

Marner got Selke votes, and Matthews got nothing.

Marner got All-Star team votes, and Matthews got nothing.

Marner's PPG is higher by the way.

Sure, they have never been on the same level...

 

[thusk]

LOL what is this nonsense? Did they pay everyone 11M?

Watch exemple pittsburgh when they sign crosby at 8,7M...No body can asking more to their gm than crosby money

Crosby signed at 13,48 % of salary cap...

If you sign tavares at 11M and after you need to sign your best player... oups you already gave close of 14% of salary cap for a guy who was 2 or 3rd best player st this moment.

So Nylander watched all the money spent on jt, he tried to compare himself to him and try to bring back the most hr can.

So unstead to sign exemple matthews at 13,48% of salary cap ( woulb be arround 10,8M, because of JT contract for sure matthews will want more so he sign higher nd elevate at his turn salary cap standard

So Marner watch this, hum im the 3rd best player but not that far of jt and Mm so i will sign at 10, 9 unstead of 9-10...

So at the end probably every key player sign 1 M over than what they should because Dubas etablish his standard with jt contract. Its how its working in the NHL.