Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[Confucius]

Not sure I follow your train of thought.

No question he's a good player... however his contract demands are such that he probably cannot be responsbily retained.

Therefore, yes, they should have gotten whatever they can for him, and moved on.

Small problem, he won’t waive. lol! He didn’t negotiate a nmc to say ahh forget it, just a year after it kicked in. lol

 

[egd27]

Like if leafs are trailing 3-2 in Game 7 and it’s the 2nd intermission, I feel like Marner is already on his phone on Expedia booking hotel reservations

No way would he do that.

He has people to handle that minutiae

 

[Antropovsky]

View attachment 903454

Are you really comparing Marner crying to Marchand crying?

Marner - crying in a penalty box in round 1 after taking a very selfish delay of game penalty leading to a 5-3. In which lost us the game.

Marchand - crying after a game 7 Stanley Cup final loss? Like many many players have done historically.

Very Marner fanboy of you.

Ive seen Marner cry or throw a tantrum on only 3 occasions:

1) for taking a selfish delay of game penalty leadinf to 5-3 against in an elimination game
2) after guving the puck away twice in a game and both ending up in the Leaf net. He was called out by Keefe during the timeout. Which led to him getting up and staging a tantrum.
3) After being told by Nylander that its not Junior Bro, after a failed powerplay in which Marner took a light crosscheck in front of the net and fell like he was shot and then proceeded to complain to the ref instead of getting up and playing playoff hockey.

Marner cries for himself....when he's afraid of shouldering blame. Not because he cares about winning. Big difference.

Otherwise Marner doesnt show any emotion after losses or in games. Yup.... for example him, wearing an A, watching from 30' as his teammates get pummeled in the Boston crease 6vs4 (photo attached). Marchand had to skate over to him to engage him in a battle... to which our assistant captain squirmed and complained to the refs like a 6 year old.

 

[seanlinden]

Small problem, he won’t waive. lol! He didn’t negotiate a nmc to say ahh forget it, just a year after it kicked in. lol

Call me crazy, but I believe that agents get their clients to act in a professional manner.... and if you're going into a contract year at 27, where the team makes clear they're not bringing you back, you're much better off to find your way to your next destination a year early than have a lame duck year.

I'm saying you can still trade him if he was willing, and Cap space wouldn't be a concern because you wouldn't be trading him for picks, nor non-NHL players. Leafs aren't going to change from a "going for it" team to a rebuilding team based on trading marner.

If Leafs got what they deemed fair value, they can make the Cap Work with most every team as retention is just for this year.

If they other team sends $6mm in players Leafs could retain $5mm to balance it out.

Doesn't matter anyway, he isn't going to waive.

In theory.... sure... in reality, it's far more difficult.

A trade at this time of year has to be dollars in for dollars out... especially when it comes to the contending teams he's likely to be interested in.

Furthermore, It has to "work" for both teams in isolation of itself, because trying to make subsequent moves around a monumental trade like Marner is much more difficult.

Take the rumoured Marner for Saros+ deal that was floated about....while I personally wouldn't have done that specific deal, it's a reasonable well known example. Nashville has since gone out and spent a whole bunch of money on UFA forwards; and traded Yaroslav Askarov. They are no longer in a position to add another substantially paid forward, nor lose a #1 goalie.

Teams that were looking for a premier winger, and lost out on Guentzel, etc. went out and spent thier money on lesser lights.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Are you really comparing Marner crying to Marchand crying?

Marner - crying in a penalty box in round 1 after taking a very selfish delay of game penalty leading to a 5-3. In which lost us the game.

Marchand - crying after a game 7 Stanley Cup final loss? Like many many players have done historically.

Very Marner fanboy of you.

Ive seen Marner cry or throw a tantrum on only 3 occasions:

1) for taking a selfish delay of game penalty leadinf to 5-3 against in an elimination game
2) after guving the puck away twice in a game and both ending up in the Leaf net. He was called out by Keefe during the timeout. Which led to him getting up and staging a tantrum.
3) After being told by Nylander that its not Junior Bro, after a failed powerplay in which Marner took a light crosscheck in front of the net and fell like he was shot and then proceeded to complain to the ref instead of getting up and playing playoff hockey.

Marner cries for himself....when he's afraid of shouldering blame. Not because he cares about winning. Big difference.

Otherwise Marner doesnt show any emotion after losses or in games. Yup.... for example him, wearing an A, watching from 30' as his teammates get pummeled in the Boston crease 6vs4 (photo attached). Marchand had to skate over to him to engage him in a battle... to which our assistant captain squirmed and complained to the refs like a 6 year old.

View attachment 903543

What a puss. He looks like he’s about to call his wife to come pick him up because the other guys were being too mean!

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Call me crazy, but I believe that agents get their clients to act in a professional manner.... and if you're going into a contract year at 27, where the team makes clear they're not bringing you back, you're much better off to find your way to your next destination a year early than have a lame duck year.



In theory.... sure... in reality, it's far more difficult.

A trade at this time of year has to be dollars in for dollars out... especially when it comes to the contending teams he's likely to be interested in.

Furthermore, It has to "work" for both teams in isolation of itself, because trying to make subsequent moves around a monumental trade like Marner is much more difficult.

Take the rumoured Marner for Saros+ deal that was floated about....while I personally wouldn't have done that specific deal, it's a reasonable well known example. Nashville has since gone out and spent a whole bunch of money on UFA forwards; and traded Yaroslav Askarov. They are no longer in a position to add another substantially paid forward, nor lose a #1 goalie.

Teams that were looking for a premier winger, and lost out on Guentzel, etc. went out and spent thier money on lesser lights.

Yes because no one wants to pay 12+ million along with the trade assets to acquire one of the softest crybabies in the league. No surprises there.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Going into last season, the Leafs knew, that there was probably a 90% chance that the Leafs would be in, or very close to, a playoff spot throughout the year, including at the deadline.

Being a likely playoff team, how can you, as a GM, go out and trade William Nylander mid-season? You're going to lose that deal in the immediate, 100% of the time. Making a trade that you know is an immediate loss, would absolutely gut a team's confidence, and likely spiral the season out of control. You just can't do it.

So now you're in an impossible position of either signing him to his ludicrous demands (i.e. playing hardball) or losing him for nothing. Obviously, they signed him.

Nylander has the 6th highest cap hit in the league this year.... sure he's put up back to back 40 goal seasons and 87-98 points the last 2 years, but that's not exactly the world's biggest accomplishment these days. There were 9 players who put up over 100 points last year. There were 17 that had 40 goals or more. There are guys that put up 80-99 points or 30-39 goals who had to be the best players on their team, are centres, defencemen, and/or have other qualities like being solid two-way players.

Call me crazy.... but in any contract, there should be some years that you know are going to be "good", and some that you know are going to be "bad"... with the idea that the ideally the good outweighs the bad. Nylander is not the league's 6th best player. Without doing much research, I'd think you'd have to rank him somewhere in the 15-25 range.

How many years until he becomes the ~20th highest paid player in the league? My guess is that happens in year 4 of his deal, at which point he'll be 32, and probably not a top 20 player.

Back to Marner, call me crazy, but I refuse to believe that it's in Marner's best interest to have a lame duck season if it's clear that this is his last year in Toronto.

First, Nylander wasn't traded.

Second, if he was traded for something that made the team better, what's the problem?

He didn't make a trade that you think would have been a mistake, so that was a mistake?

It seems like your whole argument is based on your opinion that the amount Nylander signed for was "ludicrous" because he signed in January rather than in August?

The nine players with more points all played on the top line, and all but one averaged more ice time.

As at least one poster keeps pointing out (to justify other Leafs contracts) with the cap going up each year, comparing new contracts to older ones is wrong.

I have no idea where you got the idea that I thought "it's in Marner's best interest to have a lame duck season". What I said was that if he insists on not waiving (and playing here next season), why are you surprised that he hasn't been traded.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I have not heard one person say that even from those who like Dubas so not sure where that is coming from. You stated you didn't understand what people meant by "real change"...you know very well real change means getting rid of 1-2 of the core 4 either by trade (very difficult) or letting walk at the end of year. Will or can that real change happen this year?....probably not.

I didn't say that anyone had said that, just that it seems to be the only thing they would consider as good. Maybe just bad phrasing on my part.

I didn't say I don't understand - what I said was that they won't say it.

I think there are several posters who seem to consider that moving one of the big four (or five if you include Rielly) is the only thing that would qualify as "real change". However, despite my asking several of them, none will actually say that, as it's pretty obvious that none of that could happen this summer, so obviously the comment either meant other changes (of which we have seen a fair amount), or that it wasn't exclusive to this summer.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not sure I follow your train of thought.

No question he's a good player... however his contract demands are such that he probably cannot be responsbily retained.

Therefore, yes, they should have gotten whatever they can for him, and moved on.

What can they get for him if he won't allow a trade?

 

[IPS]

Marner - crying in a penalty box in round 1 after taking a very selfish delay of game penalty leading to a 5-3. In which lost us the game.

Marchand - crying after a game 7 Stanley Cup final loss? Like many many players have done historically.

'Nuff said.

Wtf would even possess someone to think that's an even remotely comparable situation?

 

[seanlinden]

Yes because no one wants to pay 12+ million along with the trade assets to acquire one of the softest crybabies in the league. No surprises there.

Then that should have been flushed out through an open process with Marner, his agent, the Leafs, and any teams that Marner was interested in signing with.

Having Marner walk to UFA doesn't serve the Leafs best interest, but it also doesn't serve his own.

What can they get for him if he won't allow a trade?

Why would he sewer his own negotiating position by putting himself in a position where he's gotta make the most important career decision to date in a manner of a few hours?

 

[seanlinden]

First, Nylander wasn't traded.

Second, if he was traded for something that made the team better, what's the problem?

He didn't make a trade that you think would have been a mistake, so that was a mistake?

It seems like your whole argument is based on your opinion that the amount Nylander signed for was "ludicrous" because he signed in January rather than in August?

The nine players with more points all played on the top line, and all but one averaged more ice time.

As at least one poster keeps pointing out (to justify other Leafs contracts) with the cap going up each year, comparing new contracts to older ones is wrong.

I have no idea where you got the idea that I thought "it's in Marner's best interest to have a lame duck season". What I said was that if he insists on not waiving (and playing here next season), why are you surprised that he hasn't been traded.

There are two problems with how Nylander's "situation" was dealt with.

Problem #1 is the timing. The fact that it was left to in-season, substantially handcuffed the Leafs ability to do trade him.

By not making a decision early last offseason, the Leafs put themselves in a position of three terrible choices... one being to lose him for nothing, two being to sign him to the bloated contract they did, and 3 being to try adn trade him mid-season.... which was never realistic because mid-season trades involving pending UFAs result in futures coming back, and the Leafs were never going to be sellers.

You want to talk comparables? Look no further at the teams you need to beat. The actual date that pen is put to paper is irrelevant. What's relevant, is in any given year, what you're getting paid relative to your comparables around the league.

Look no further than David Pastrnak's deal.... his contract & Nylander's overlap for 7 of 8 years. Pastrnak is the better player, without question. If Pastrnak is $11.25m, I think most would argue that Nylander should be between $9.5m and $10m. Not only does Nylander inexplicably earn more, but his contract carries substantially more bonus money; and full no movement protection. Sure, Nylander's is a year later, but I think all parties in the negotiation understand that the 8th year on his deal isn't "worth" the $11.5m.

As for Marner, it's this whole apparent "insistence" on not waiving. It just doesn't make any logical sense for player to not want to move to his next destination with a shiny new contract. The risk is massive.

 

[DarkKnight]

My guess he signs for Nylander money. Which is fair. With Tavares off the books you can afford three guys at that number, assuming the cap rises as expected. I'm looking forward to see if Berube has an impact on not just Mitch, but others as well. A hive mentality, more A to B and better time management of his players.

 

[egd27]

Are you really comparing Marner crying to Marchand crying?

Marner - crying in a penalty box in round 1 after taking a very selfish delay of game penalty leading to a 5-3. In which lost us the game.

Marchand - crying after a game 7 Stanley Cup final loss? Like many many players have done historically.

Very Marner fanboy of you.

Ive seen Marner cry or throw a tantrum on only 3 occasions:

1) for taking a selfish delay of game penalty leadinf to 5-3 against in an elimination game
2) after guving the puck away twice in a game and both ending up in the Leaf net. He was called out by Keefe during the timeout. Which led to him getting up and staging a tantrum.
3) After being told by Nylander that its not Junior Bro, after a failed powerplay in which Marner took a light crosscheck in front of the net and fell like he was shot and then proceeded to complain to the ref instead of getting up and playing playoff hockey.

Marner cries for himself....when he's afraid of shouldering blame. Not because he cares about winning. Big difference.

Otherwise Marner doesnt show any emotion after losses or in games. Yup.... for example him, wearing an A, watching from 30' as his teammates get pummeled in the Boston crease 6vs4 (photo attached). Marchand had to skate over to him to engage him in a battle... to which our assistant captain squirmed and complained to the refs like a 6 year old.

Didn't realize there were so many conditions attached to your question "How many other teams Captains and Alternates have you seen throw tantrums or cry during a game?" You should really be more specific.

 

[IPS]

Didn't realize there were so many conditions attached to your question "How many other teams Captains and Alternates have you seen throw tantrums or cry during a game?" You should really be more specific.

"Very many" conditions?

Doesn't seem like that at all. I haven't seen very many players cry in the penalty box after taking a delay of game. Seen many not be able to hold it in when they're losing game 7 of the cup finals.

 

[ACC1224]

Didn't realize there were so many conditions attached to your question "How many other teams Captains and Alternates have you seen throw tantrums or cry during a game?" You should really be more specific.

Being upset about losing counts for more the further you go.
Marner needs to care a little less like Nylander.

 

[egd27]

"Very many" conditions?

Doesn't seem like that at all. I haven't seen very many players cry in the penalty box after taking a delay of game. Seen many not be able to hold it in when they're losing game 7 of the cup finals.

I'm not sure I have seen any, but that wasn't the question, was it ?

 

[IPS]

I'm not sure I have seen any, but that wasn't the question, was it ?

Suppose not but you can kind of see how your examples don't really say anything at all.

 

[egd27]

Suppose not but you can kind of see how your examples don't really say anything at all.

Aside from answering the question that was asked, I suppose not. It is just a picture after all.

 

[Antropovsky]

Didn't realize there were so many conditions attached to your question "How many other teams Captains and Alternates have you seen throw tantrums or cry during a game?" You should really be more specific.

Haha you didnt realize? Anyone can twist things to fit their bias when taken out of context.

"the truth is rarely pure and never simple."

 

[Gary Nylund]

My guess he signs for Nylander money. Which is fair. With Tavares off the books you can afford three guys at that number, assuming the cap rises as expected. I'm looking forward to see if Berube has an impact on not just Mitch, but others as well. A hive mentality, more A to B and better time management of his players.

My guess is that Marner's ego (or his dad's ego, depending on who actually makes the decisions for Marner) is too big to accept Nylander money, and he will insist on being paid more.

 

[IPS]

My guess is that Marner's ego (or his dad's ego, depending on who actually makes the decisions for Marner) is too big to accept Nylander money, and he will insist on being paid more.

They've been all-in on being Matthews' comparable since day 1, not Nylander's.. They ain't giving up on it now.

 

[notdoneyet]

Every one shuts on Mitch but
13 million matthews has even more pressure this year. Highest paid in the league now just made captain he needs to up his game in the playoffs and I’m not sure he is alpha enough to do that. Can’t see him running anyone in the playoffs or coming to the aid of a teammate when it comes to pack mentality. Just don’t see it. That’s not something you learn it’s something you have in you.

Nylander now has more pressure than ever. Being paid with the big boys and if he doesn’t live up to that big contract leafs fans will eat him alive. But with his all about me and I don’t care what anyone thinks attitude he might just collect his paycheque and get on the plane every year to play for his main objective team Sweden.

Marner holds all the cards just like matthews and nylander who again took leafs management to the woodshed with their greed.

They have to pay him what he wants or let him walk. There will be no trade. There will be no putting him on the third line and making his life miserable like some not so bright posters are suggesting.

Maple leafs painted themselves into this corner with those three and it looks good on them.

Matthews should have got 13 million only if he signed 8 years
Nylander hasn’t shown he is worth 11.5 and marner isn’t good enough to get his payday expectation of 12 ?but they overpaid the others and now it’s his turn or Lise him for nothing

 

[ToneDog]

Every one shuts on Mitch but
13 million matthews has even more pressure this year. Highest paid in the league now just made captain he needs to up his game in the playoffs and I’m not sure he is alpha enough to do that. Can’t see him running anyone in the playoffs or coming to the aid of a teammate when it comes to pack mentality. Just don’t see it. That’s not something you learn it’s something you have in you.

Nylander now has more pressure than ever. Being paid with the big boys and if he doesn’t live up to that big contract leafs fans will eat him alive. But with his all about me and I don’t care what anyone thinks attitude he might just collect his paycheque and get on the plane every year to play for his main objective team Sweden.

Marner holds all the cards just like matthews and nylander who again took leafs management to the woodshed with their greed.

They have to pay him what he wants or let him walk. There will be no trade. There will be no putting him on the third line and making his life miserable like some not so bright posters are suggesting.

Maple leafs painted themselves into this corner with those three and it looks good on them.

Matthews should have got 13 million only if he signed 8 years
Nylander hasn’t shown he is worth 11.5 and marner isn’t good enough to get his payday expectation of 12 ?but they overpaid the others and now it’s his turn or Lise him for nothing

You are mostly right but overpaying Marner because "it is his turn" is insanity.

He either takes market value or gives the Leafs a discount or he can GTFO. They cannot make the same mistake with Marner that they did with Nylander. Myself, I'd want to see what he does in the playoffs before I decide whether and how much to pay him or let him walk. I would also want the option to move him in the future. Full NMC is off the table unless he takes a major haircut.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Regrettable that an extension is even being considered at any 11M+ number. Is there a single poster here who thinks we will win 8 playoff games let alone 4, let alone 16? These contracts are too rich. What are we just going to cut Tavares' salary, add it to Marner and keep both?

Guys you're killing me. Why are we keeping them let alone increasing their pay? I'm exasperated and cannot believe the short memories or how forgiving yall are.

"Well what changes are out there?"

I don't know I'm not being paid 4M+ per year. Ask the executives on the payroll who should know better.