Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[ULF_55]

This comes down to inexperienced management I am afraid. We should have given the boots to the Nylander signing at nothing more than 6x6. Matthews should have been 4x9.5 and finally Marner should have been 7/8 at 9.5-10. I know that we can wax poetic of what should have been but they really dropped the ball.

They need to ensure this does happen again and lock up most players after year 2 of ELC

What it should have been in summer of 2018:

Nylander 7 * 6.5
Marner 3 * 7
Matthews 8 * 11

 

[biotk]

I believe hockey is a team game and Boston will always be better than us when their key players aren't taking too big pieces of the cap.

View attachment 229045

A steal vs our 11, 11.6, x.x, 6.9.

so sad.

When Bergeron signed his contract it was 10.69% of the cap. He signed for that cap hit after reaching 60 points once in the previous 5 seasons (64 points). Marchand signed his contract for 8.39% of the cap after just barely reaching 60 points for the first time in his career - during his seventh season (61 points. The previous season he had 42). Both were 28 and signing 8 year contracts (a year early so in both cases it signed them until they were 37) for extremely large cap hits when compared to their previous performance. Then Bergeron and Marchand were put together as a line with Pastrnak, a young player with 2 seasons in the 20s for points. Pastrnak got 70 points playing on that great line and signed for 8.89% of the cap.

None of those contracts were considered team friendly at the time they were signed. Not even close. As I said, Bergeron and Marchand's contracts took them through until they were 37. A lot of cap hit for aging players who had been inconsistent and not great in the seasons before they signed. But both took off big time after signing (which was great for Boston because there was zero reason to think that either of them would improve at all). Similarly devoting almost 9% of the cap to a player who had one good season and had never produced well at all when apart from Marchand and Bergeron was also risky.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

So being selective in attacking players is fine in your opinion. Carry on.

Yes it is fine. Carry on.

 

[biotk]

This comes down to inexperienced management I am afraid. We should have given the boots to the Nylander signing at nothing more than 6x6. Matthews should have been 4x9.5 and finally Marner should have been 7/8 at 9.5-10. I know that we can wax poetic of what should have been but they really dropped the ball.

They need to ensure this does happen again and lock up most players after year 2 of ELC

What it should have been in summer of 2018:

Nylander 7 * 6.5
Marner 3 * 7
Matthews 8 * 11

How come no one told Leafs' management that you can just force players to sign contracts for whatever the team decides?? They really dropped the ball here.

Actually, you two really dropped the ball last summer in not ordering Dubas to sign those contracts. So this is your fault.​

 

[Northernguy10]

It's not a fair comparison though when you consider the timing of the contract extensions. If Boston had to re-sign their top players now, it would be an entirely different narrative.

Yup...Context is important.

 

[IPS]

It's crazy how the team hasn't accomplished anything and they are struggling just to keep it together. It's pretty hard to blame the players when money Mike is leading the way

It was silly to believe any of our stars would give discounts when you're forcing them to play under Babcock. I legitimately believe it's the reason Matthews only signed for 5 years.

 

[ULF_55]

How come no one told Leafs' management that you can just force players to sign contracts for whatever the team decides?? They really dropped the ball here.

Actually, you two really dropped the ball last summer in not ordering Dubas to sign those contracts. So this is your fault.​

Obviously, the players have to agree to sign the contract, but I don't think Nylander's is bad, but I'm disappointed Matthews deal is only 4 years where the team has any control.
I suspect Marner's deal is going to be worse.

Their contracts are going to make Chirelli look good.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Well that's your opinion I guess. If we're more worried about overpaying Nylander by less than 1 million, than the Matthews contract or upcoming Marner contact then there's some serious recency bias going on.

Why do we care about what the main board says? Just look at the Tampa cap vs Toronto cap. Look how many players that have committed 5 mill+ to long-term. Look at how many key players they have to re-sign. Our issues are nothing.



If we're not considering goalies, Washington just won last year with their 4 highest paid players being forwards (not D). Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuzy and Oshie.

That's your opinion I guess.

Who says marner is even going to be overpaid? The list of players who have hit 90+ points while on their elc is very small. Seems like some of you posters assume nylander will improve but that somehow marner wont. Makes no sense. Marner is a year younger and less mature physically so should have more room to grow.

I don't really care what the main boards say. Sometimes they are right out of it and there are lots of anti leaf fans out there. But it does give you a bit of an idea about what other fans think instead of a leaf fan telling other leaf fans that we are better cap wise than the team that literally just broke records and has their best player and captain locked up on good deals. Imo you are being biased here.

My point that started all of this is that no team has gone forward with all 4 of their highest paid players being forwards. The fact that Holtby is their 4th highest player means that the caps did not have their top 4 paid players as forwards. Also niskanen was tied with Oshie for 5th highest paid.

If all 4 of our highest paid players are forwards and you dont care than I dont know why some of you are getting your panties in a bunch. (That's more aimed at @mavis)

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It's not a fair comparison though when you consider the timing of the contract extensions. If Boston had to re-sign their top players now, it would be an entirely different narrative.

Yup. Matthews and Marner are better younger than all 3. Nylander and Pastrnak were absolutely comparable by the same point in their young careers.

Similar to what we have in Rielly right now.

Similar to what we could have in, say, Kapanen and/or Johnsson if we are able to retain them and give them term and bet on them getting better into their prime.

 

[Mr Hockey]

It was silly to believe any of our stars would give discounts when you're forcing them to play under Babcock. I legitimately believe it's the reason Matthews only signed for 5 years.

it was said he apparently wanted 14 AAV for 8 years or 11.5 for 5 years to get him to UFA as soon as possible... This kid better score 50+ from now on

 

[Notsince67]

I really don't want to get into the argument again, but how? 61 points in both of his first NHL seasons. He has one bad stretch of hockey, gets overpaid by 500K, holds out for a bit, and all of a sudden he's the Leafs worst problem to have happened the past decade.

There's always a whipping boy in Toronto. Whether it be Kadri, Gardiner or Nylander, it's getting really tiring. You may be tired of the 'nonsense' people defending Nylander, but a real Leaf fan wouldn't be ****ting on it's good players. Polak, Bozak, Komarov, Martin, even Hyman, yeah it's understandable. But Nylander!? All of a sudden the Leafs are too good to have good players on their team.

The problem here is with posters like you who have said that Nylander is near-Marner level.

There are more Marner detractors on this forum than in any other forum on Hfboards. Most other boards salivate over the thought of having Marner on their team. Many here in the Nylander faction would argue that a kid who put up 94 points at 21 years of age shouldn't have gone as early as #4 overall in the draft.

The issue is cognitive dissonance. Had there been a perception at the draft that Marner would do as well as he did, no one would hesitate to have argued that he deserves 10-11MM per year. Because people have already weighed in less positively (to put it kindly), they refuse to concede anything other than he is a product of lucky circumstances.

I don't expect people to love any player but the constant belittling including a recent post that he is the 5th best leaf on the team is a bit too much to handle. It is without a doubt that Marner had the best year of any player this year. arguing that he can't maintain that output might be fair game (I would disagree) but to spout some bs to discredit a very valid observation is dishonest

Now lets talk about Nylander's hand in the problem here. The leafs could have locked down Marner earlier (for cheaper) but Willy put the negotiation on the backburner by holding out for a contract that he couldn't deliver on. If Marner has a lackluster season next year after getting a big contract, the criticism on him will also be valid...especially if we lose good players as a result. The team did nothing this year but there are some that would put the blame on Marner while pretending that Nylander contributed close to his results. IT WASN"T EVEN CLOSE. Even in the playoffs, 2/3 wins were because of Marners heroics but we have to listen to some bs because he couldn't carry the team on his shoulders for all the games. This is what we are talking about.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

That's your opinion I guess.

Who says marner is even going to be overpaid? The list of players who have hit 90+ points while on their elc is very small. Seems like some of you posters assume nylander will improve but that somehow marner wont. Makes no sense. Marner is a year younger and less mature physically so should have more room to grow.

I don't really care what the main boards say. Sometimes they are right out of it and there are lots of anti leaf fans out there. But it does give you a bit of an idea about what other fans think instead of a leaf fan telling other leaf fans that we are better cap wise than the team that literally just broke records and has their best player and captain locked up on good deals. Imo you are being biased here.

My point that started all of this is that no team has gone forward with all 4 of their highest paid players being forwards. The fact that Holtby is their 4th highest player means that the caps did not have their top 4 paid players as forwards. Also niskanen was tied with Oshie for 5th highest paid.

If all 4 of our highest paid players are forwards and you dont care than I dont know why some of you are getting your panties in a bunch. (That's more aimed at mavis)

Why do you care that Andersen or Rielly aren’t in our top 4 salary of players?

 

[Mess]

Show of hands, who among us peasants and armchair GMs didn't think Marner's contract demands and cap hit wouldn't go up after playing a year with JT as opposed to before last summer?

The fact Marner is still unsigned leaves open a valid debate as to why did Leafs management wait, only to now pay more $$ and take a bigger hit?

Did management honestly believe waiting was going to produce a better cap hit, while not expecting your $11 mil signing of Tavares was going to produce > 40 goals 85 points of which linemate Marner was going to be highly influential statistically, and then have a much better bargaining position now?

 

[IPS]

Show of hands, who among us peasants and armchair GMs didn't think Marner's contract demands and cap hit wouldn't go up after playing a year with JT as opposed to before last summer?

The fact Marner is still unsigned leaves open a valid debate as to why did Leafs management wait, only to now pay more $$ and take a bigger hit?

Takes two to tango. Marner's camp would have been pretty silly to not wait to see if the Leafs signed Tavares or not. Cause if they did, it essentially guarantees Marner a spot beside an elite #1C.

Agents - they tend to be a lot smarter than HFBoards posters, most of which have zero perception whatsoever of how negotiations go.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

My point that started all of this is that no team has gone forward with all 4 of their highest paid players being forwards.

Actually your point that started it was looking at the list of past cup winners and said that you bet they all had a defenseman in their top 4 salaries.

I proved you wrong and you started whining harder, back tracking and kicking up smoke and mirrors.

Are you assuming my gender?

A couple of posts ago you called me "bro" but now its "she" all of a sudden?

Maybe next time before you jump into a conversation actually look into what the posters are talking about? Will save you from looking silly in the future.

I keep it random so as to not assume gender. Don’t take it personally.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It was silly to believe any of our stars would give discounts when you're forcing them to play under Babcock. I legitimately believe it's the reason Matthews only signed for 5 years.

I agree with your first point, but I'm pretty sure Matthews wanted 8 years. I'm sure he realizes Babcock's time is almost up, or at least he hopes so

 

[ULF_55]

Rantanen 1.18 PPG (31 goals)
Point 1.16 PPG (41 goals)
Marner 1.15 PPG (26 goals)

Panarin 1.10 PPG (28) UFA

So realistically pay should fall something like this:

1. Karlsson
2. Panarin
3. Point
4. Rantanen
5. Marner

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

it was said he apparently wanted 14 AAV for 8 years or 11.5 for 5 years to get him to UFA as soon as possible... This kid better score 50+ from now on

I think his 8yr ask was around 13.5, which would be fair. If he continues to play as well as he does now, he’ll likely get the same cap% on 8yrs for his next contract. I don’t think it’s a matter of not wanting to play for the Leafs for more than 5yrs, it’s a matter of spreading out the cap% due to having lots of star players at the same time. Similar to what pens had to do with Crosby/Malkin.

 

[ULF_55]

Show of hands, who among us peasants and armchair GMs didn't think Marner's contract demands and cap hit wouldn't go up after playing a year with JT as opposed to before last summer?

The fact Marner is still unsigned leaves open a valid debate as to why did Leafs management wait, only to now pay more $$ and take a bigger hit?

Did management honestly believe waiting was going to produce a better cap hit, while not expecting your $11 mil signing of Tavares was going to produce > 40 goals 85 points of which linemate Marner was going to be highly influential statistically, and then have a much better bargaining position now?

Marner was never going to sign last year because Nylander didn't sign early.

Show of hands who don't believe the agents, and sometimes over reaching and over quoted parents aren't me-first?

We aren't exactly seeing a team of team first players at the top of the ladder.

I don't have a problem with them being greedy.
Perhaps the only problem is the thinking that one player is worse than the other when they're going for the most money they can get.

We see quite a bit of bias when vilifying one player and justifying another for the exact same action.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Rantanen 1.18 PPG (31 goals)
Point 1.16 PPG (41 goals)
Marner 1.15 PPG (26 goals)

Panarin 1.10 PPG (28) UFA

So realistically pay should fall something like this:

1. Karlsson
2. Panarin
3. Point
4. Rantanen
5. Marner

You probably want to separate PP from 5v5 and look at p/60 instead of ppg. Reasons:

- Leafs got substantially less special teams than other teams (eg Tampa got shot tons of PP time).

- Leafs have a lot of top end offensive depth, therefore overall Marners ice time could be quite a bit lower than, say, Rantanen, Panarin, who play on a team with less offensive depth and could potentially be getting a lot more 5v5 ice time as a result.

 

[ULF_55]

You probably want to separate PP from 5v5 and look at p/60 instead of ppg. Reasons:

- Leafs got substantially less special teams than other teams (eg Tampa got shot tons of PP time).

- Leafs have a lot of top end offensive depth, therefore overall Marners ice time could be quite a bit lower than, say, Rantanen, Panarin, who play on a team with less offensive depth and could potentially be getting a lot more 5v5 ice time as a result.

Double edged sword.

More top end talent means the other team can't focus on just one line.
Even strength, look at Guentzel goal production, he'd be way underpaid.

Panarin is UFA, so automatically he gets 1-2 million more.

 

[DarkKnight]

Tavares' production was up without Marner. It has been mentioned several times in this thread, so that is why I didn't mention it.

Tavares P/60 with Marner 5v5: 2.77
Tavares P/60 without Marner 5v5: 3.39

And how many games are we actually talking here? How many minutes, what is this relevant sample size? They were joined at the hip this year.

 

[DarkKnight]

You are tripping all over yourself yet again. You have made claims in the past that Marner relied on such high producing players like Marleau and Kadri last year while Nylander had to suffer with bad LW like Hyman and he had to play against the Bergeron line. Something about QoC and such. You are a walking contradiction.
You spout every bit of nonsense that comes through your head and a detailed line by line explanation with you is clearly useless because you are too lazy to read past posts on the subject and remember the recycled arguments you made that are completely contradictory. This is just too easy so I am moving on to someone who is at least coherent.

Oh yes, the good ole days when Hyman was a production killer on a line, but suddenly that isn't even mentioned when he's on with a guy who just gets it done. He's the exact same player he's always been, when it was the other winger a clear negative, with Marner crickets. Place is a hoot sometimes.

 

[biotk]

Show of hands, who among us peasants and armchair GMs didn't think Marner's contract demands and cap hit wouldn't go up after playing a year with JT as opposed to before last summer?

But again if everyone knows that a player is going to produce more the next season because of who they will be playing with, then after said season everyone should still take that into consideration and understand that they shouldn't be paying for the inflated production.

For as long as I have watched the NHL, players have cashed in after a good season because of a great linemate and that has pretty much always turned out to be a bad contract. Smart teams refuse to sign players to those inflated contracts, and often instead trade the player when their value is high. Dumb teams do sign those players to inflated contracts.

I remember Warren Young signing a big contract with the Wings after his 40 goal, 72 point rookie season with Pittsburgh. Can't blame Young for asking for it. But Pittsburgh was smart enough to not agree to a massive raise. The Wings did though and they were paying a 40 goal, 70 point salary to a third line player, at best, who averaged 15 goals and 33 points over the next 2 seasons and then was out of the league.

If, for instance, someone is a 100 point player with Marchand and Bergeron, but a 60 or 70 point player without then it would be dumb to pay him like he is a 100 point player.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Double edged sword.

More top end talent means the other team can't focus on just one line.
Even strength, look at Guentzel goal production, he'd be way underpaid.

QoC is less of a factor impacting offense than QoT. Guentzel signed midway through his 40g season and after a full season of quite a bit less production. Pens are making a bet that he is 2018-19 Guentzel and not 2017-18 Guentzel. Time will tell but it looks positive.

Panarin is UFA, so automatically he gets 1-2 million more.

Doesn’t exactly work like that with players coming off ELC in Marner’s tier. We’ll see but I haven’t dug into the comparisons between the 2.

My point was though, all of your criticisms can be applied to ppg though. If you’re already taking a leap to ppg and season goals, why not just use g/60 and p/60 instead, and definitely separate 5v5 from PP because that is a dead obvious factor in production. Or even g/60 and p1/60 as those tend to be more impactful on skater contracts.