Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part III

[JT AM da real deal]

Time to "draw a line in the sand" was last December. Having said that it looks like Dubas knows what needs to be done to make the cap work. Question is, can he get it done with minimal cap damage?

I hope so. If he unloads both Marleau and Z wow he becomes an instant hero ... we can sign everyone and use the extra to add a solid RHD

 

[JT AM da real deal]

but I think I am dreaming now ...

 

[ToneDog]

but I think I am dreaming now ...

Maybe not. There is a lot of smoke. Marleau selling his house shows that he is done here. Glad that Leafs realise that they can't get to where they want to go with this version of Marleau. Z wanting out may be a godsend.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander had the luxury of playing almost all of his ice time with Matthew's, the best/one of the best even strength goal scorers in the league. Obviously willy is going to have some extra points when playing with someone like that.

Marner played with bozak and jvr. Both of those players had career years playing with marner even though they played with kessel for years.

Marner actually showed an increase in production from his first-second season and actually led the team in scoring. Nylander stagnated.

Marner is a year younger and less physically developed. He should have more room to keep improving.

If marner signed for 9mil last summer, nylander gets 6.5. 2.5-3 mil seems about right between the two.

Nylander played with linemates that got 100 points together. Mitch played with linemates that combined for 110 points. Bozak had four points more than his average pace while playing easier minutes than he ever had before. Same for JvR, who beat his previous best with one point. These are insignificant points. Him being less physically developed has absolutely no bearing on a contract negotiation.

Marner is a year younger. He had an upward trajectory, and 8 points more over two years. Saying that warrants 2.5-3 mil extra is absurd. Considering how little 2nd contract age seem to matter and given what an extra annual 4 points buys you, you'd be hard pressed to make a case for an extra $500K.

 

[Bomber0104]

Nylander played with linemates that got 100 points together. Mitch played with linemates that combined for 110 points. Bozak had four points more than his average pace while playing easier minutes than he ever had before. Same for JvR, who beat his previous best with one point. These are insignificant points. Him being less physically developed has absolutely no bearing on a contract negotiation.

Marner is a year younger. He had an upward trajectory, and 8 points more over two years. Saying that warrants 2.5-3 mil extra is absurd. Considering how little 2nd contract age seem to matter and given what an extra annual 4 points buys you, you'd be hard pressed to make a case for an extra $500K.

Hockey is very much a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport.

And what Marner's done lately is put in the best offensive season the Leafs have seen since 1997.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Hockey is very much a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport.

And what Marner's done lately is put in the best offensive season the Leafs have seen since 1997.

Absolutely. We were talking about a scenario where Marner signed before this season, however.

 

[Bomber0104]

Absolutely. We were talking about a scenario where Marner signed before this season, however.

Nylander's reported ask was $8M. He came down to about $7M.

Marner's reported ask was $9M. Maybe he comes down to $8M?

In any case, letting Marner play a whole season on JT's wing without a contract was beyond stupid.

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander played with linemates that got 100 points together. Mitch played with linemates that combined for 110 points. Bozak had four points more than his average pace while playing easier minutes than he ever had before. Same for JvR, who beat his previous best with one point. These are insignificant points. Him being less physically developed has absolutely no bearing on a contract negotiation.

Marner is a year younger. He had an upward trajectory, and 8 points more over two years. Saying that warrants 2.5-3 mil extra is absurd.

A couple things:

1) why are you being inconsistent with points and ev production. It seems to me like you use the one that fits your story the best.

2) it’s totally unfair to look at linemate production to claim one had better linemates than the other. Hyman created a lot of room for 34 and 29, a luxury player that Marner didn’t benefit from. Hyman was also the only player you mention that had no PP time.

3) If you assessed his Y2 season rationally, you’d have known that Marner was going to get upwards of 90+ points this season. Especially once we signed Tavares. When Marner got put with Kadri and Marleau, Marner paced for a ~95P over a large sample of ~40GP. A pace that I’m not even sure Nylander has managed over any 20 game stretch of his career. All signs pointed towards a big season from Marner.

Even last season, 9M for Marner made a lot more sense than 7M for Nylander. Especially if the 9M would be over 8 years.

 

[mr grieves]

Except Marner and Kane are pretty close comparables while Malkin and Matthews weren't even close

Yeah, Matthews is better

 

[Bomber0104]

Yeah, Matthews is better

Yeah, and Rielly is better than Orr. Andersen is better than Brodeur.

Am I doing this right?

 

[Walshy7]

Nylander played with linemates that got 100 points together. Mitch played with linemates that combined for 110 points. Bozak had four points more than his average pace while playing easier minutes than he ever had before. Same for JvR, who beat his previous best with one point. These are insignificant points. Him being less physically developed has absolutely no bearing on a contract negotiation.

Marner is a year younger. He had an upward trajectory, and 8 points more over two years. Saying that warrants 2.5-3 mil extra is absurd. Considering how little 2nd contract age seem to matter and given what an extra annual 4 points buys you, you'd be hard pressed to make a case for an extra $500K.

that's a like because im not allowed to.

Amazing the made up "facts" posters hope others don't look into.

 

[Walshy7]

Nylander's reported ask was $8M. He came down to about $7M.

Marner's reported ask was $9M. Maybe he comes down to $8M?

In any case, letting Marner play a whole season on JT's wing without a contract was beyond stupid.

not when you are trying to win.

It's amazing some posters here though will lead you to believe it was all Marner on that line, Marner had a +25 above his previous best season while JT had +2 on his best season.

Marner no doubt helped score 10 more goals than previous best though, clearly the best winger he has ever played with

$9M has sailed now, there is no way the deal isn't signed if marner would take $9M now

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, and Rielly is better than Orr. Andersen is better than Brodeur.

Am I doing this right?

You think Malkin is an all-time talent who'll set the standard of greatness at his position?

 

[MyBudJT]

not when you are trying to win.

It's amazing some posters here though will lead you to believe it was all Marner on that line, Marner had a +25 above his previous best season while JT had +2 on his best season.

Marner no doubt helped score 10 more goals than previous best though, clearly the best winger he has ever played with

$9M has sailed now, there is no way the deal isn't signed if marner would take $9M now

Bolded really doesn't mean anything. What point were you trying to make exactly?

 

[Walshy7]

Bolded really doesn't mean anything. What point were you trying to make exactly?

that the belief marner ran that line offensively and "makes his linemates better" isn't entrirely true. JT didn't improve much at all in total points from his islander seasons, the 10 more goals is impressive but that's likely what would of happened if the islanders ever got him a legit winger to play with. it was basically 2 elite players playing together.

in context of the post I was replying too, im say that marner wouldn't have gone +25 points higher player with the kadris/bozaks of the world but that isn't a reason to not play them together. If we wanted to win that pairing was going to be a major reason why we won

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, and Rielly is better than Orr. Andersen is better than Brodeur.

Am I doing this right?

But yes, really, Matthews is better than Malkin. The latter's gaudier boxcar stats are down to (1) mostly playing a heckuva lot more PP minutes (league trends + usage), as well as (2) starting his NHL career at 20 not 19, and (3) not dealing with early-career injuries.

Here are their age 20 and 21 seasons compared. I'm leaving off Matthews's rookie year, because Malkin didn't play at 19. I'm leaving off Malkin's 3rd season, because he signed an extension after his 21yo season. So these are the 2 seasons prior to each player signing his second contract, and thus the most relevant to compare if you want to know why Matthews got "Malkin Money":

	Malkin	Auston
GP	160​	130​
Goals	80​	71​
Points	191​	136​
Gs/game	.50​	.55​
Pts/game	1.19​	1.05​
PP TOI	862​	308​
PP Goals	33​	13​
PP Pts	80​	33​
EV Goals	47​	54​
EV Pts	111​	103​
EV G/60	1.24​	1.56​
EV Pts/60	2.92​	2.98​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And I left off PP rates, because I don't think much of those points -- just wanted to demonstrate that Malkin really racked em up. But, if you do think PP efficiency is something important, there's this:

• Malkin scored at a rate of 2.30 G60 and 5.57 Pts/60 on the PP.
• Matthews, meanwhile, was 3.31 G60 and 6.43 Pts/60.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Absolutely. We were talking about a scenario where Marner signed before this season, however.

But marner played the first half of the season with lesser players and even on the fourth line. It was late December when they put him with Kadri and Marleau who were both mired in a 20 game slump. When they added marner to that line from December until the end of the playoffs it was our best line.. From December until the end of the playoffs marner was scoring at a PPG playing with lesser players.

Then on July 1 we signed Tavares a top ten player in the nhl with the caveat that marner would be playing with him. This is where Dubas really screwed up. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that if marner can score at a ppg pace with Marleau and Kadri that this would only continue or get better with someone like Tavares and what his skill set brings.

In my opinion poor decision making by Dubas.

 

[Bomber0104]

But yes, really, Matthews is better than Malkin. The latter's gaudier boxcar stats are down to (1) mostly playing a heckuva lot more PP minutes (league trends + usage), as well as (2) starting his NHL career at 20 not 19, and (3) not dealing with early-career injuries.

Here are their age 20 and 21 seasons compared. I'm leaving off Matthews's rookie year, because Malkin didn't play at 19. I'm leaving off Malkin's 3rd season, because he signed an extension after his 21yo season. So these are the 2 seasons prior to each player signing his second contract, and thus the most relevant to compare if you want to know why Matthews got "Malkin Money":

	Malkin	Auston
GP	160​	130​
Goals	80​	71​
Points	191​	136​
Gs/game	.50​	.55​
Pts/game	1.19​	1.05​
PP TOI	862​	308​
PP Goals	33​	13​
PP Pts	80​	33​
EV Goals	47​	54​
EV Pts	111​	103​
EV G/60	1.24​	1.56​
EV Pts/60	2.92​	2.98​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So basically you just hacked and slashed seasons away from Matthews and Malkin to paint a pretty picture for Matthews.

Compare their ELC's and nothing more (including playoff production and games lost to injury) and it's a landslide for Malkin.

There's no need to cook the books and do mental gymnastics to overrate your own player.

 

[mr grieves]

So basically you just hacked and slashed seasons away from Matthews and Malkin to paint a pretty picture for Matthews.

I chose to compare apples to apples. You haven't said why that isn't the most sensible comparison, and the rhetorical flair ("hacked and slashed") isn't a substitute for an argument. No need to be evasive if your position is right.

Compare their ELC's and nothing more (including playoff production and games lost to injury) and it's a landslide for Malkin.

I'd be interested to see some rate stats or data that doesn't rely on the PP that shows Malkin is far and away a better player than Matthews. You are free to lay out the data and make this case. Right now, an empty assertion supported by overheated rhetoric ("a landslide"!). Back it up.

 

[Bomber0104]

I chose to compare apples to apples. You haven't said why that isn't the most sensible comparison, and the rhetorical flair ("hacked and slashed") isn't a substitute for an argument. No need to be evasive if your position is right.



I'd be interested to see some rate stats or data that doesn't rely on the PP that shows Malkin is far and away a better player than Matthews. You are free to lay out the data and make this case. Right now, an empty assertion supported by overheated rhetoric ("a landslide"!). Back it up.

You can squarely look at their first ELC seasons and see that Malkin vastly outperformed him. That's apples to apples. Those are the seasons that led to their 2nd contracts.

And you won't find many people who would take the phantom numbers / 82 games / 60 minutes over the player that actually did it over an 82 game season. Staying healthy can't be used as a knock against Malkin and being injured an excuse for Matthews, by the same token.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Top 5 ranked Corsica centres in league
1. McJesus
2. MAC
3. Crosby
4. Matty
5. Bergy
I don't see Malkin until #10

 

[MyBudJT]

that the belief marner ran that line offensively and "makes his linemates better" isn't entrirely true. JT didn't improve much at all in total points from his islander seasons, the 10 more goals is impressive but that's likely what would of happened if the islanders ever got him a legit winger to play with. it was basically 2 elite players playing together.

in context of the post I was replying too, im say that marner wouldn't have gone +25 points higher player with the kadris/bozaks of the world but that isn't a reason to not play them together. If we wanted to win that pairing was going to be a major reason why we won

That statement doesn't prove/disprove whether Marner ran the line, though. What if Tavares increases production by only 1 point again next season, and Marner goes up by 10? Does that still mean that Tavares contributes to the line more than Marner? It makes no sense!

We also don't know if Marner wouldn't have had 94 points with the Kadris and Bozaks of the world. Over a ~40 game sample with Kadri, Marner has produced at a ~95 point pace. Why don't you think that would continue?

On top of that, its silly to look at "difference in career highs" when you're comparing Marner's U20 and U21 seasons to Tavares' U20-U28 seasons.

 

[Havoc]

Yeah, Matthews is better

Come on man. 22 year old Malkin won the Conn Smythe and lead Pens to a cup.

 

[Walshy7]

That statement doesn't prove/disprove whether Marner ran the line, though. What if Tavares increases production by only 1 point again next season, and Marner goes up by 10? Does that still mean that Tavares contributes to the line more than Marner? It makes no sense!

We also don't know if Marner wouldn't have had 94 points with the Kadris and Bozaks of the world. Over a ~40 game sample with Kadri, Marner has produced at a ~95 point pace. Why don't you think that would continue?

On top of that, its silly to look at "difference in career highs" when you're comparing Marner's U20 and U21 seasons to Tavares' U20-U28 seasons.

valid points man.

what I posted is facts, fact is that was the increases etc, now whether marner would get 94 points with kadri isn't a fact its is projection but if you projected Marner's season in December 2018 you'd be getting him on pace for 10 goals you see how using "pace" isn't the best measurement. Of course they don't tell the whole story they are just one piece of the pie that is the information.

JT and Marner are 2 elite players working together to create one of the more dangerous duos in the NHL this past season, lets hope Babs puts Matthews and Nyladner back together (being not together last season was largely due to nylander deciding to sit out obviously) and we can have a 1/2 punch of 2 extremely dangerous duos offensively out there

 

[ToDavid]

Nylander's reported ask was $8M. He came down to about $7M.

Marner's reported ask was $9M. Maybe he comes down to $8M?

It's not even close to the same situation. If Nylander doesn't like the Leafs' offer he doesn't play. If Marner doesn't like the Leafs' offer last season he says "okay, talk to you next summer." As soon as Marner knew he was going to spend the season on Tavares' wing there was no chance of signing him last summer without a huge overpay.

IMO paying him $9-10 million this summer after he's proven himself is smarter than paying him $8-9 million last summer. Just because you can see something would have worked out with hindsight doesn't mean that it was the smart decision at the time. Now, if he wants to hold out for $11+ million, that's a separate question. As much as Dubas has said he doesn't want a repeat of the Nylander I'm sure he's prepared to let him sit or trade him.