Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Bomber0104]

Except That makes no sense?

Why not 10 second shifts then? They must be more tired at 30 seconds than 10 right?

It makes no sense to you that more ice-time and less rest would increase fatigue?

So I'm guessing you've never done anything athletic in your life...

 

[Legion34]

So Laine is also getting 14%?

Remember, if he gets less than that, YOU'RE entire argument falls apart.

I can't WAIT to see what Laine signs at. I'm guessing you'll delete your account when it happens.

Hahahah. This is going to be SO fun.

Remember that time you LIED and said Malkin made over 16% of the cap? Yeah, I remember. Liar.

Hahahaha hahah nope. My argument for Matthews contract has always been the comparables o of players who have actually signed. It has nothing. To do with Laines contract Because IT DOESNT EXIST to compare.

For those who are interested. You can see the actual breakdown of Laine vs Matthews vs aho in ELC goals. Points and per games in the Laine thread. That’s where he should end up on a 5 year deal.

But that’s not what this is about. Right. It never has been about your actual opinion. It’s just been about getting a rise out of people.

Remember YOU are the one who uses contract year total points when it is a leaf player. But TOTAL ELC goals when it is a jets player.

So to be clear which are you using now on Laine? If you want to be consistent and use contract year comparables.

Laine gets compared to who? Labanc? Kapanen? Johnson? Konecny? So you exptect a bridge in the 1-4 year 1-3.4 million range?

This proves your whole point wrong.

Orrrrrr you want him compared on his body of work. Which makes you a hypocrite

Your call

 

[Bomber0104]

A difference of a minute here or there is not likely to make much of an impact on how tired you are, and there is no evidence that it affects production negatively.

ESPECIALLY when that difference comes on the PP, where energy expended is drastically less.

PP probably...

But that's one of those things where you just ride the hot hand.

There's plenty of evidence actually...

Credit: @666 for this plot.

There's a downward trend between Auston Matthews' ice-time and output, as the mean line shows.

 

[Dayjobdave]

No, he was definitely dogging it out there and in my opinion it was quite apparent. If that's what you see though, that's your opinion but I disagree.

In my opinion he was not dogging it when he looked sluggish. He was having back issues. If the back issues were related to the screws in his leg as reported, we are going to see a leap in his performance. If they are ongoing back issues that continue, that may smart a little.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I just find it incredible that people question and require proof that more ice-time and less rest would fatigue a player.

It's a very flat-Earth type of argument.

To what degree would it hinder Matthews to play about 2 more PP minutes per game? Is it possible it might even help his fatigue if he played more PP minutes and fewer 5v5 minutes?

 

[Bomber0104]

To what degree would it hinder Matthews to play about 2 more PP minutes per game? Is it possible it might even help his fatigue if he pore PP minutes and fewer 5v5 minutes?

The Leafs are going to have to find a way to draw more penalties then because the only other way to claim that ice-time is to leave the 1st PP unit out for an entire two-minute powerplay.

But yes, if the 2nd PP line is as useless as last year then I think that second option should be explored.

 

[Dekes For Days]

PP probably...

Which is what's being discussed here.

There's a downward trend between Auston Matthews' ice-time and output, as the mean line shows.

Well, for one, your mean line appears to be wrong... It should still have that trend for reasons explained below, but it looks very off.

But actually, if you looked closer at the data, what this shows is that in games where the Leafs have already scored goals, Matthews' ice time is limited because they don't need him, whereas in games that they are behind and not scoring, Matthews is played more. You are measuring game effects, not the effect of increased ice time.

 

[Bomber0104]

Which is what's being discussed here.


Well, for one, your mean line appears to be wrong... It should still have that trend for reasons explained below, but it looks very off.

But actually, what this shows is that in games where the Leafs have already scored goals, Matthews' ice time is limited because they don't need him, whereas in games that they are behind and not scoring, Matthews is played more. You are measuring game effects, not the effect of increased ice time.

Let me guess, the scatter plot generator has an anti-Leafs/Matthews bias?

And no, there's no variable accounting for score-effects. Just ice-time and output which shows Matthews is most productive when he's played less than 19 minutes a game, exactly where Babcock said he's going to be at this season.

Factor in Matthews injury history as well and I think that's where everyone should be comfortable with him playing.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I'll try to find it. Give it a go on Google and you'll probably find it.

Thanks, will try when not on my phone.

 

[Havoc]

Down 2-0 in the third, 5 minutes to go.

Matthews ice time around 18 minutes by this point:


Matthews: (Getting ready to jump the boards) Let's goooooooooooooo!!!

Babcock: bUt ThE sCaTtEr PlOt

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Disagree. I think people see how effortlessly Matthews makes a lot of his game look and actually assume he's floating or being lazy, because players like Marner whose style looks flashier give them the impression effort looks the same for every player. I think Matthews was frustrated at times for sure, but I have a hard time with questioning effort level.

I wouldn't question his effort level in the o-zone...but in his own end...he did not look like the player he was in his rookie year. He looked like he could be as good as Toews defensively while also be as good as Kane scoring wise. I think Babs just zapped his will to be an all around great player because he never saw the benefits of it.

Think about it...you bust your ass as a rookie and do everything the coach says...then do it again the next year hoping to get more ice time....and then NADA....so how do you feel as that player? I would think he felt that the extra effort did not gain him anything tangible with respect to ice time and he just said screw it. I think when Babs is gone your going to see another level of play from AM...I am sure of that.

 

[zeke]

PP probably...

But that's one of those things where you just ride the hot hand.

There's plenty of evidence actually...

Credit: @666 for this plot.

There's a downward trend between Auston Matthews' ice-time and output, as the mean line shows.

This number doesn't mean what it thinks it means, unfortunately.

For any top scorer, they will play higher than their average minutes in tight games against good teams when trailing, and play lower than their average minutes in blowout games against easy opponents.

This plot has nothing to do with "fatigue", and everything to do with game situation.

Babcock wasn't deciding to change the way he distributes ice time here - he was simply responding to game situation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let me guess, the scatter plot generator has an anti-Leafs/Matthews bias?

No, I just think you made a mistake making that line. It doesn't really line up with the data points. I even said that the trend should be similar, just not for the reasons you are attributing it to.

And no, there's no variable accounting for score-effects. Just ice-time and output

You are measuring game/score effects. Go look at the trend for his ice time relative to the team's goal-production or when leading vs. trailing. Matthews is played less in games where they don't need him to score, and they don't need him to score a bunch when he's already scored a bunch and the team is winning. This says absolutely nothing about the effect of ice time on fatigue/production.

 

[zeke]

Thanks, will try when not on my phone.

A look at rate statistics and ice time

Taking the chart from before, I only looked at players that saw an average ice time per game increase or decrease by one minute.

Here’s the updated chart...

There’s virtually no change between the two charts. The math backs this up, as the two models are virtually identical, with virtually identical R-squared values (0.19 vs. 0.21).

A one minute change in average ice time per game may not be significant enough, however. What if we only look at forwards who had a two minute increase or decrease in ice time?....

There’s not much change in R-squared between the model for players with a two minute difference and the players with a one minute difference, but there is a slight gap between the model for players with a two minute difference and the model for all players (0.17 vs. 0.21). It seems that there might be a slight impact from ice time, so let’s go one step further and look at players that have a three minute increase or decrease from one season to the next.....

We’re down to just 50 observations, but the data here is pretty clear. With a three minute increase or decrease in ice time per game, there’s virtually no relationship between past season primary points per 60 and current season primary points per 60.
Overall, we saw that the correlation between previous season primary points per hour and current season primary points per hour declined the more change a player saw in his average ice time. Changing roles did have an impact on primary point production, though the effect wasn’t necessarily positive or negative.....

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

A look at rate statistics and ice time

Cheers!

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Hahahaha hahah nope. My argument for Matthews contract has always been the comparables o of players who have actually signed. It has nothing. To do with Laines contract Because IT DOESNT EXIST to compare.

For those who are interested. You can see the actual breakdown of Laine vs Matthews vs aho in ELC goals. Points and per games in the Laine thread. That’s where he should end up on a 5 year deal.

But that’s not what this is about. Right. It never has been about your actual opinion. It’s just been about getting a rise out of people.

Remember YOU are the one who uses contract year total points when it is a leaf player. But TOTAL ELC goals when it is a jets player.

So to be clear which are you using now on Laine? If you want to be consistent and use contract year comparables.

Laine gets compared to who? Labanc? Kapanen? Johnson? Konecny? So you exptect a bridge in the 1-4 year 1-3.4 million range?

This proves your whole point wrong.

Orrrrrr you want him compared on his body of work. Which makes you a hypocrite

Your call

I've seen you post that "top 5 goals over elc gets 14-15%" argument a thousand times. Laine had ONE less goal, so according to your PRECISE argument, he should get at least 14% as well. I mean... how much do you think that ONE goal should cost him on cap percentage. lol, what a joke.

Now you're claiming that (lol) Laine's contract doesn't exist yet, so none of your arguments apply to him? Are you serious?

If Laine signs for far less than Matthews, I guess that shows that their gm is WAY better than Dubas. Remember... top 5 in goals gets 14-15% of the cap... and Laine had ONE less goal than Matthews.

See? This is our precise point. All these bonkers arguments you use to rationalize Matthews unprecedented dramatic overpayment... why do they never apply to other team's players?

Also, why are you using only recent comparables for Laine (Aho and Matthews), yet to rationalize Matthews unprecedented dramatic overpayment, you keep citing old contracts like Malkin, Kovalchuk, and Nash?

 

[Havoc]

PP probably...

But that's one of those things where you just ride the hot hand.

There's plenty of evidence actually...

Credit: @666 for this plot.

There's a downward trend between Auston Matthews' ice-time and output, as the mean line shows.

Points per 60 is calculated as points / TOI * 60.

The result is negatively related to TOI. You expect it to be a downward trend if you're comparing players to themselves. Players aren't machines.

This plot doesn't take into account any of the valid reasons for Matthews getting more ice time. I don't see anyone blindly wanting him out there for 20-23 minutes. They want him out there if it's a necessity.

This plot works against Matthews if he gets his first point and game winner in minute 21 versus 2 points in 16 minutes in a 4-2 loss. Assume Matthews was "preserved" on the bench after minute 16 in this loss.

Pretty sure everyone will choose the lower p60 in this case.

Matthews minutes needs to be 20+ when it has to be.

Keep in mind you will get his 16-19 minute production before you even cross the 20+ minute mark as well. A player needs to go through all of those first 19 minutes no? We get his 19 minute output and then any minute after that is obviously clutch time. Clutch time will always have diminishing returns. Not even Crosby scores game tying goals in the final 5-10 minutes of the game on a nightly basis.

If we're up 3-0 or down 5-1 nobodies going to complain if Babcock shuts Matthews down for the night at minute 17-18.

 

[HolyCrap]

I came here thinking this was a Marner discussion thread But I see everyone ignored the mods and just turned it into a Mathews whine fest.

 

[Legion34]

I've seen you post that "top 5 goals over elc gets 14-15%" argument a thousand times. Laine had ONE less goal, so according to your PRECISE argument, he should get at least 14% as well. I mean... how much do you think that ONE goal should cost him on cap percentage. lol, what a joke.

Now you're claiming that (lol) Laine's contract doesn't exist yet, so none of your arguments apply to him? Are you serious?

If Laine signs for far less than Matthews, I guess that shows that their gm is WAY better than Dubas. Remember... top 5 in goals gets 14-15% of the cap... and Laine had ONE less goal than Matthews.

See? This is our precise point. All these bonkers arguments you use to rationalize Matthews unprecedented dramatic overpayment... why do they never apply to other players?

Nope. The argument has always been. Matthews is a top 5 goal scorer top 2 in goals per game.
When we compare him to ELC scorers he is top 10 in all categories in 20 years.

That puts HIM in the easy in the 13.85-16.54 that is precedent.

Laine is not Matthews. He IS a top goal scorer. And on a 5 year deal he should get what his comparables. Are.My personal bet is the team won’t commit to that. Because he has potential injury and addiction issues.

Again the HISTORICAL precedent. Unrelated to Matthews is players who tank in their contract year due to injury/addiction issues get less term

See. Jake Gardiner. Wayne Simmonds. Robin lehner. Just this year.

Laine himself says they are no where close
And is talking about not being a jet. Soooooo I’m not sure he isn’t arguing that he is to be paid base
On comparables. We will see

But that’s my CONSISTENT argument. It has always been the same. And it is ALWAYS backed up by actual comparables. Because I’m not throwing a tantrum. I’m looking at the actual evidence.

You are arguing for leafs. It’s platform year.

Therefore. Laines compareables are Labanc. Johnson kappy and konecny.

Is that what you think? Because you have been quoted specifically ignoring contract year total points when it comes to Laine

Sooooo are you wrong or a hypocrite?

 

[biotk]

PP probably...

But that's one of those things where you just ride the hot hand.

There's plenty of evidence actually...

Credit: @666 for this plot.

There's a downward trend between Auston Matthews' ice-time and output, as the mean line shows.

It blows my mind that people continue to make arguments this ridiculous. While there are some coaches who continue to play their stars just as much in a blow out as in a close game or a game where they are trailing - most don't - and Babcock certainly does not. In the 19 games last season where Matthews' played at least 20 minutes he had 21 points. There were 6 games out of those 19 in which he didn't have point. In those 6 games the Leafs scored a total of 5 goals. Do you think that going up against a very hot goalie might have something to do with the Leafs' playing Matthews more?

In the other 13 games he had 21 points. Now if your (and 666) idea had anything to it Matthews would do worse as the game went on because he would be tired. I would imagine that someone who is taxed by those minutes as much as you think he was probably got most of those points in the first period, with the remaining few in the second period and he was probably barely able to stand on his skates in the third right?

In the first period of those 13 games he had....3 points.
In the 2nd period of those 13 games he had....5 points.
In the 3rd period of those 13 games he had....12 points. (the remaining point was in OT)

No rational person should continue to believe that crap.

 

[Mess]

Last summer the talks involved $72 mil over 8 years and so Dubas should get Mitch to settle on $70 mil over 7 and take the $1 mil extra cap hit per season.

 

[hullsy47]

Last summer the talks involved $72 mil over 8 years and so Dubas should get Mitch to settle on $70 mil over 7 and take the $1 mil extra cap hit per season.

2
2 rumors i heard in windsor on the weekend as junior hockey camps are startinh
First rumor was babcock offerd bob boughner an assistant job
Second rumor Shanahan has taken over the negotiations with ferris on direction his bosses
This actually came a father of a highly touted membre of the Sun county panthers
Agent talk allegedly

 

[KPower]

Last summer the talks involved $72 mil over 8 years and so Dubas should get Mitch to settle on $70 mil over 7 and take the $1 mil extra cap hit per season.

If Mitch would sign for 7X10 it would be done.

Gotta figure he’s asking for Matthews’ contract and he’ll settle for a little less.

I’m expecting 5X11.16

 

[Stamkos4life]

You have to go back more than that to find a player that scores goals as torridly as Matthews does. Ovechkin produced goals at a lower rate than Matthews during his ELC. Malkin is a good comparable though if we wanted to stretch to say that goals and primary assists are equal value.

Wow you honestly think ovechkin scored goals at a lower rate during his elc then Matthew's.

This right here is peak homerism.

Dont be like this guy.

 

[LeafSteel]

If Mitch would sign for 7X10 it would be done.

Gotta figure he’s asking for Matthews’ contract and he’ll settle for a little less.

I’m expecting 5X11.16

If Dubas gives Marner this contract, then Dubas needs to GTFO.

Marner can sit out the whole year before we get bent over with that deal.