Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[zeke]

The connection between higher TOI and lower P/60 and G/60 rates is absolutely a constant.

This is 100% false.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Is there any actual work done on that question? People always claim that higher TOI lowers rate stats, but I haven't seen it backed up with anything solid.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

What I need to see is Matthews without Babcock more than anything.

First and foremost we need Matthews giving a **** again. His lazy and disinterested play needs to go. If we could get that demon from the rookie season back who finished 2nd in goals as a rookie, I have no doubts he's capable of justifying his contract.

I agree with you here completely; Babcock can't motivate this team. It's plainly apparent in how garbage and disinterested the team looked last year.

Matthews in particular looked really lazy and uninterested in putting in serious effort for long stretches of last season. I think this is part of the reason his new contract bothered me so much. You can tell he has all the talent in the world but he played half-assed too much of the time for my liking to really earn it. Thankfully he turned it on in the playoffs.

Back on topic, wish this kid would sign already and we could close this thread. We're not even talking about him anymore lol.

 

[IPS]

Is there any actual work done on that question? People always claim that higher TOI lowers rate stats, but I haven't seen it backed up with anything solid.

Depends what you consider solid evidence.

One of the extreme few times we saw G/60 and TOI intersect, we witnessed the greatest goal-scoring season of the cap era when Ovechkin scored 65 goals. And again with Stamkos' 60 goal season.

 

[zeke]

We can remove the per 60 from your Semin example completely, actually:

Even Strength 08/09

Ovechkin 79gms, 36gls, 63pts, .45gpg, .80ppg
Semin 62gms, 26gls, 47pts, .42gpg, .76ppg

They scored at a very similar level at even strength, even ignoring ice time completely.

 

[Mess]

the thing that's weird that we aren't exactly sure of...

if he signs an offer sheet late in the season, we know that the opposing team does not get the inflation because it's another team signing. but does that hold true to if we match it?

I think it would be the same regardless of who signs Marner and when. IMO

You would have to for consistency purposes..

Otherwise you could create a loophole for your team simply by get another team to OS your player so you could match, and it would be a cap end-around attempt to avoid the front loaded cap hit penalty in year #1.

 

[IPS]

We can remove the per 60 from your Semin example completely, actually:

Even Strength 08/09

Ovechkin 79gms, 36gls, 63pts, .45gpg, .80ppg
Semin 62gms, 26gls, 47pts, .42gpg, .76ppg

They scored at a very similar level at even strength, even ignoring ice time completely.

5v5 is a much more accurate measure... Capitals obviously started Ovechkin-Backstrom for 4 on 4 OT which obviously helped his numbers.

So no, we're not removing Semin. Sorry.

 

[zeke]

Is there any actual work done on that question? People always claim that higher TOI lowers rate stats, but I haven't seen it backed up with anything solid.

Yes there is work done on this question. And it proves conclusively that there is not even any correlation, let alone causation, between increased ice time and decreases productivity.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Cool. You better take Matthews' QOC in his 3rd year into account too then.

I’ve been discussing production comparables as a base. Most posters when discrediting the efficacy of Matthews contract highlight his production. This whole debate was me shifting the starting point (just raw production) to his best production comparable: Malkin. I then said that further banter such as QoT, QoC, xG, defensive analysis would go on top of that, though it’s unlikely such measures combined would bridge the 8-9% difference which is how much less than Malkin Matthews was paid.

Again - if you don't mind me asking - what is your educational background in statistics?

I don’t have a background in stats, nor am I making any statistical claims here. Applying production rates to contract value is not an exercise in statistics it is an exercise in the domain of hockey which I also have no professional experience. This is thankfully not a prerequisite to accept the brain dead simple fact that players score a lot more on the PP and should be taken into consideration when analysing production.

The connection between higher TOI and lower P/60 and G/60 rates is absolutely a constant.

Source? This is actually a type of claim that begs the question: what is your statistical background, or what is the statistical background of the person who did this analysis that you are passing along the research for? That is a prerequisite if you want to enter it into the discussion. I’m sure at some threshold a player will regress, but is Malkins ice time in that threshold? Show your work.

One of the extreme few times we saw G/60 and TOI intersect, we witnessed the greatest goal-scoring season of the cap era when Ovechkin scored 65 goals.

If a single datapoint sways your opinion I’ll wager you have no statistical background.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes there is work done on this question. And it proves conclusively that there is not even any correlation, let alone causation, between increased ice time and decreases productivity.

Interesting. Do you have a source on that?

 

[Sypher04]

Matthews in particular looked really lazy and uninterested in putting in serious effort for long stretches of last season. I think this is part of the reason his new contract bothered me so much. You can tell he has all the talent in the world but he played half-assed too much of the time for my liking to really earn it. Thankfully he turned it on in the playoffs.

Disagree. I think people see how effortlessly Matthews makes a lot of his game look and actually assume he's floating or being lazy, because players like Marner whose style looks flashier give them the impression effort looks the same for every player. I think Matthews was frustrated at times for sure, but I have a hard time with questioning effort level.

 

[IPS]

I don’t have a background in stats, nor am I making any statistical claims here. Applying production rates to contract value is not an exercise in statistics it is an exercise in the domain of hockey which I also have no professional experience. This is thankfully not a prerequisite to accept the brain dead simple fact that players score a lot more on the PP and should be taken into consideration when analysing production.

Neither do I. I consult a friend of mine who is a stats expert.

He seemed to be very adamant on the fact that the Leafs management 100% did not use contracts from 10 years ago to decide the value of Matthews' contract. He says it's all but guaranteed the Leafs used McDavid and Eichel for their comparisons and went from there.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Neither do I. I consult a friend of mine who is a stats expert.

He seemed to be very adamant on the fact that the Leafs management 100% did not use contracts from 10 years ago to decide the value of Matthews' contract. He says it's all but guaranteed the Leafs used McDavid and Eichel for their comparisons and went from there.

Wow, I didn’t know they studied NHL contracts in statistics courses

 

[Notsince67]

Yes there is work done on this question. And it proves conclusively that there is not even any correlation, let alone causation, between increased ice time and decreases productivity.

Yet there is solid evidence that back to back games causes a decline in team's performance.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Disagree. I think people see how effortlessly Matthews makes a lot of his game look and actually assume he's floating or being lazy, because players like Marner whose style looks flashier give them the impression effort looks the same for every player. I think Matthews was frustrated at times for sure, but I have a hard time with questioning effort level.

No, he was definitely dogging it out there and in my opinion it was quite apparent. If that's what you see though, that's your opinion but I disagree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Era difference is minimal why? Because you say so?

No, because we have the actual numbers instead of your "feelings" based on arbitrary rule changes that weren't in effect all 3 years. There is a minimal difference in ES scoring, and part of that is less ES time, which is already adjusted for when looking at scoring rates. There is a MASSIVE difference in PP scoring and opportunity.

Scoring is pretty high last 3 seasons compared to 4 to 5 seasons prior.

Scoring 4 to 5 seasons ago is irrelevant. Malkin was not on his ELC then. How are you still not getting that?

League scoring was way up when the lockout ended, then dipped back down, and is now rising back up. Both Malkin's and Matthews' ELC falls partially under increased scoring. Except Matthews has a slight advantage in ES scoring. Malkin has a MASSIVE advantage on the PP, where it is also much easier to score.

It was mandated by league to find ways to increase scoring and make product more entertaining; you are discounting all of that in your narrative

They did the same thing out of the lockout, except even more-so. Again, you are complaining about not adjusting for minor differences in ES scoring while you pretend to be completely blind to the massive differences on the PP.

 

[Bomber0104]

Is there any actual work done on that question? People always claim that higher TOI lowers rate stats, but I haven't seen it backed up with anything solid.

How about common sense?

Hockey players aren't superhuman. They tire and fatigue like every other specimen on the planet.

You want prove of that on paper?

 

[zeke]

5v5 is a much more accurate measure... Capitals obviously started Ovechkin-Backstrom for 4 on 4 OT which obviously helped his numbers.

So no, we're not removing Semin. Sorry.

5v5 08/09

Ovechkin 79gms, 27gls, 50pts, .34gpg, .63ppg
Semin 62gms, 22gls, 39pts, .36gpg, .63ppg

So yeah, ice time has nothing to do with it.

 

[zeke]

Interesting. Do you have a source on that?

I'll try to find it. Give it a go on Google and you'll probably find it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You dismiss my post claiming that I missed information, you fail to address any of my points, and now you have the nerve to post this graph again?

THAT GRAPH DOESN'T SHOW MALKIN'S ELC YEARS.

If it did, you would see that those bars are pretty much the same as the bars at the end for Matthews.

 

[Nithoniniel]

How about common sense?

Hockey players aren't superhuman. They tire and fatigue like every other specimen on the planet.

You want prove of that on paper?

Yes, players get tired. A good analysis doesn't stop there.

How much effect does that have? When does the fatigue set in? If a player goes from 16 minutes per game to 18, how much does his rate drop? Does it make up for getting 164 extra minutes per season?

Which quite obviously is what my post was about.

 

[Bomber0104]

Yes, players get tired. A good analysis doesn't stop there.

How much effect does that have? When does the fatigue set in? If a player goes from 16 minutes per game to 18, how much does his rate drop? Does it make up for getting 164 extra minutes per season?

Which quite obviously is what my post was about.

I just find it incredible that people question and require proof that more ice-time and less rest would fatigue a player.

It's a very flat-Earth type of argument.

 

[Legion34]

Personally, I think that's dumb. It's their life, it's their contract, they can do whatever they want.

That’s the point. There is a HUGE shift in the RFA market this specific year.

There is the tv deal numbers a successful expansion that worked beyond anyone’s dreams AND a second team

We went from players signed long term after their second years to an entire class save ONE player who signed early. The entire landscape shifted and that’s not dubas fault

Mcdavid and Eichel contracts are as
Irrelevant if not more than 15 years ago.

 

[Legion34]

I just find it incredible that people question and require proof that more ice-time and less rest would fatigue a player.

It's a very flat-Earth type of argument.

Except That makes no sense?

Why not 10 second shifts then? They must be more tired at 30 seconds than 10 right?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I just find it incredible that people question and require proof that more ice-time and less rest would fatigue a player.

A difference of a minute here or there is not likely to make much of an impact on how tired you are, and there is no evidence that it affects production negatively.

ESPECIALLY when that difference comes on the PP, where energy expended is drastically less.