Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[ZEBROA]

Marner had less pp points last year than year prior. How anyone can still question whether Marner will “produce” at this point says more about your own flawed internal thought process than reality.

Offcourse you can question if he produce the same without Tavares and pp clicking, no matter what the season before brought. What you should not do is questioning others thought process while kneeling at the altar of Marner. I question things about all players. I belive when i see. This past season says nothing about this one. I hope all players reach nirvana and beat the expectations. Marner im just least confident in right now. You are still wellcome to adore saint Marner, just dont force your belives on me, thank you.

 

[DarkKnight]

Offcourse you can question if he produce the same without Tavares and pp clicking, no matter what the season before brought. What you should not do is questioning others thought process while kneeling at the altar of Marner. I question things about all players. I belive when i see. This past season says nothing about this one. I hope all players reach nirvana and beat the expectations. Marner im just least confident in right now. You are still wellcome to adore saint Marner, just dont force your belives on me, thank you.

Geez.

 

[PromisedLand]

Like I said in the post you quoted, I literally did adjust via league rank (because the other poster was citing league rank for era):



The era difference is minimal. The biggest difference is the PP time across the 2 eras, like I said before. Thus I quarantine PP production and look at them separately from 5v5. Once you adjust for that, Matthews scores more primary production 5v5 than Malkin, and similar league rank of points than Malkin. He scored primary points on the PP more effectively than Malkin as well just had 1/3rd the PP time, partially because of era, partially because leafs were bottom of the league in PP, partially due to Leafs ice time management philosophy and partially due to injury, none of which anyone would typically attribute to the hockey skills of an individual player, this would not penalise his contract.

Era difference is minimal why? Because you say so?

Scoring is pretty high last 3 seasons compared to 4 to 5 seasons prior. In the last 3 seasons the league has seen

3 on 3 OT
reduction in goalie equipment
More space behind the net
No time outs on icings

And you think these have no impact?

It’s quite pathetic the narrative you are spinning here

Matthews is an elite talent and may prove to be generational compared to his peers who started in the same era; but saying Matthews > Mallon is all kinds of Stupid

It was mandated by league to find ways to increase scoring and make product more entertaining; you are discounting all of that in your narrative and quite frankly it is incorrect and lazy way to look at things and pursue an agenda based false narrative.

Dubas effed up; there is no harm in admitting it instead of defending the guy to no end using all kinds of lazy analysis which is incorrect to claim a false narrative

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Era difference is minimal why?

Try and keep up:

Malkin 2007-2009 (2 Art Ross seasons)
Matthews: 2017-2019 (same 2 ELC years)

g/60: Malkin #45, Matthews #1
a1/60: Malkin #1, Matthews #34
p/60: Malkin #3, Matthews #3

It’s quite pathetic the narrative you are spinning here

saying Matthews > Mallon is all kinds of Stupid

The only thing stupid here is you completely ignoring that I've fully debunked all of your lame arguments and you resort to name calling just because you have nothing left. It's clear you have nothing else to offer but an overconfidence in your own unsubstantiated bias against Leafs players. So that's where I'll hang my hat on this one.

Spoiler

I look forward to you hitting the reset button on the conversation and executing one of your classic argument fallacy go-tos:

A. citing awards Malkin won after he signed his second contract
B. forgetting the shit ton of PP time he had because of the era he played in by citing his total points
C. starting to argue something that isn't offensive production despite the fact that I've been specifically arguing this whole time about production comparable
D. probably bringing up era adjustment again despite the fact I addressed their respective league ranks in production in their respective eras
E. Coming up with a straw man argument that I never made (similar to C) so it gives the appearance that you have any kind of grasp on this conversation

fun times ahead...

 

[PromisedLand]

Try and keep up:






The only thing stupid here is you completely ignoring that I've fully debunked all of your lame arguments and you resort to name calling just because you have nothing left. It's clear you have nothing else to offer but an overconfidence in your own unsubstantiated bias against Leafs players. So that's where I'll hang my hat on this one.

Spoiler

I look forward to you hitting the reset button on the conversation and executing one of your classic argument fallacy go-tos:

A. citing awards Malkin won after he signed his second contract
B. forgetting the **** ton of PP time he had because of the era he played in by citing his total points
C. starting to argue something that isn't offensive production despite the fact that I've been specifically arguing this whole time about production comparable
D. probably bringing up era adjustment again despite I addressed their respective league ranks in their own era

fun times ahead...

yea right..... repeating the same BS without acknowledging the change in NHL rules and the style of play in different era is debunking arguments? one of the most pathetic ways of laying a claim I've ever seen on these boards.

#Pathetic

 

[Damisoph]

I'd honestly rather read what's going on in here than more pointless speculation about Mitch signing. Keep it up boys.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I look forward to you hitting the reset button on the conversation and executing one of your classic argument fallacy go-tos:

A. citing awards Malkin won after he signed his second contract
B. forgetting the **** ton of PP time he had because of the era he played in by citing his total points
C. starting to argue something that isn't offensive production despite the fact that I've been specifically arguing this whole time about production comparable
D. probably bringing up era adjustment again despite I addressed their respective league ranks in their own era
E. Coming up with a straw man argument that I never made (similar to C) so it gives the appearance that you have any kind of grasp on this conversation

fun times ahead...

repeating the same BS without acknowledging the change in NHL rules and the style of play in different era is debunking arguments?

You chose D I see . Again, their league rank in 5v5 production for their respective eras:

Malkin 2007-2009 (2 Art Ross seasons)
Matthews: 2017-2019 (same 2 ELC years)

g/60: Malkin #45, Matthews #1
a1/60: Malkin #1, Matthews #34
p/60: Malkin #3, Matthews #3

That is literally an era adjustment, showing Matthews edges Malkin in era-adjusted primary production via league rank, and is smack dab even on point production 5v5.

The only thing that gives Malkin more points is that he tripled Matthews' PP time which is an era adjustment you refuse to make. You are "stupid" in your own opinions you've spewed at me.

Again, you have nothing left but your ego here.

 

[81Leafs50]

Matthews was overpaid but what is done is done. I've seen analysis that had him at 9.9MM x 5 years and 10.5MM x 8.
No use crying over spilled milk so please no responses from anyone about demanding consistency...

no analysis by real credited hockey people had him at that number. If so Marner is a 5M players.

 

[PromisedLand]

You chose D I see . Again, their league rank in 5v5 production for their respective eras:



That is literally an era adjustment, showing Matthews edges Malkin in era-adjusted primary production via league rank, and is smack dab even on point production 5v5.

The only thing that gives Malkin more points is that he tripled Matthews' PP time which is an era adjustment you refuse to make. You are "stupid" in your own opinions you've spewed at me.

Again, you have nothing left but your ego here.

absolutely pathetic way to conduct the analysis to lay a dumbass claim without factoring in the change in NHL rules. keep on whining about PP production meanwhile not acknowledging the EV strength production now versus when Malkin ELC years is the difference between chalk and cheese.

You continue to lay the dumbass claim but do not acknowledge there has been change in NHL rules, goalie equipment and scoring league wide has been up the last 3 years because NHL has mandated it.

It also shows up on the overall trend

talking about ego; when you throw all the context out and carry on with the same narrative to force a dumbass claim that matthews>malkin without acknowledging that looking at pts/60 is a stupid way to look at production as it is not apples to apples comparison due era, NHL rules change, smaller goalie equipment is basically definition of egotistical maniac trying to lay a false claim by not acknowledging the facts and demeaning others.

#PATHETIC

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

absolutely pathetic way to conduct the analysis to lay a dumbass claim without factoring in the change in NHL rules. keep on whining about PP production meanwhile not acknowledging the EV strength production now versus when Malkin ELC years is the difference between chalk and cheese.

You continue to lay the dumbass claim but do not acknowledge there has been change in NHL rules, goalie equipment and scoring league wide has been up the last 3 years because NHL has mandated it.

It also shows up on the overall trend

talking about ego; when you throw all the context out and carry on with the same narrative to force a dumbass claim that matthews>malkin without acknowledging that looking at pts/60 is a stupid way to look at production as it is not apples to apples comparison due era, NHL rules change, smaller goalie equipment is basically definition of egotistical maniac trying to lay a false claim by not acknowledging the facts and demeaning others.

#PATHETIC

I.. I've just realized you must not know what an era adjustment is. I literally adjusted by era to compare them in league rank in their respective seasons, and you don't even know what that means... Sorry man, I gave you too much credit.

 

[Notsince67]

no analysis by real credited hockey people had him at that number. If so Marner is a 5M players.

And how do you know that? Who do you consider credited?

 

[Joey Hoser]

And how do you know that? Who do you consider credited?

Anyone who thinks Matthews does not deserve more than Eichel, is discredited by the fact that they think that.

 

[Notsince67]

Anyone who thinks Matthews does not deserve more than Eichel, is discredited by the fact that they think that.

So Evolving Wild is discredited because they somehow conclude something that you don't believe even though you havent seen it?

 

[Mess]

I think Dubas would be willing to go up to $77 mil total for 7 years term which would then = $11 mil AAV cap hit as a result.

There are no $11 mil RFA wingers in the NHL so it would make Marner the highest at his position for all non UFA wingers, and 2nd highest all wingers included behind only Panarin.

Personally Kucherov the league MVP should be the ceiling at $9.5 mil AAV for all wingers, based on using him as the baseline comparable. However I don't think that will happen with Marner.

Leafs internal payscale established with JT and Matthews will drive up Marner's cap hit.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think Dubas would be willing to go up to $77 mil total for 7 years term which would then = $11 mil AAV cap hit as a result.

There are no $11 mil RFA wingers in the NHL so it would make Marner the highest at his position for all non UFA wingers, and 2nd highest all wingers included behind only Panarin.

Personally Kucherov the league MVP should be the ceiling at $9.5 mil AAV for all wingers, based on using him as the baseline comparable. However I don't think that will happen with Marner.

Leafs internal payscale established with JT and Matthews will drive up Marner's cap hit.

Matthews is the 3rd highest paid player in terms of AAV in the league after McDavid and Panarin; has led the team in points once; health is an issue and yet made the bank thanks to Dubas' incompetence in negotiating contracts.

McDavid has been top 3 in points for the last 3 years in the league
Panarin is a 27 year old winger who got overpaid but then again UFA market

Marner has to be 6 years minimum; cannot be 5 years and 11 AAV is too rich for a 7 year term; regardless of internal competition. Marner would be the 2nd highest paid winger in the league after Panarin if he got that AAV

Dubas has screwed everything IMO

Dubas waited too damn long to get the Nylander deal; he should have dealt Nylander if things didn't work out; by waiting till december he delayed signing both matthews and marner who both exploded offensively

I have no doubt that if he had negotiated with Marner and Matthews to get the deal done last summer it would have been come in a lot cheaper.

There were reports that Marner camp was looking for 9AAV for 8 years; this could have been negotiated to 8 AAV for 8 years and signed; but Dubas just delayed everything to push the nylander fiasco till december 1st

Nylander's season was a disaster; did not help the team at all; that is one year of that contract down the drain; and then now dubas has overpaid matthews and things are trending in the same direction for marner.

It is imperative that marner thing be resolved by the time training camp is done; if this thing goes till december as well it will be a repeat of nylander thing last season where marner's season will be a complete waste.

 

[Mess]

It is imperative that marner thing be resolved by the time training camp is done; if this thing goes till december as well it will be a repeat of nylander thing last season where marner's season will be a complete waste.

The Leafs do not have the cap space even with using both Horton and Clarkson LTIR to pay Marner to allow this to extend into the season because of the impact on the cap in year #1 and how LTIR is fixed and Marner's cap hit would be variable and increase the longer he is unsigned.

I think Ferris and Marner will use that as leverage to get a better contract then what is presently on the table the closer we get to regular season, which unfortunately means a bigger cap hit contract to manage.

 

[PromisedLand]

The Leafs do not have the cap space even with using both Horton and Clarkson LTIR to pay Marner to allow this to extend into the season because of the impact on the cap in year #1 and how LTIR is fixed and Marner's cap hit would be variable and increase the longer he is unsigned.

I think Ferris and Marner will use that as leverage to get a better contract then what is presently on the table the closer we get to regular season, which unfortunately means a bigger cap hit contract to manage.

I am not sure that can be used as leverage; as due to cap situation Leafs can just tell them that they won't sign marner in december; it is sign now or sit for the season.

other option could be a offersheet threat based on the rumours marner camp demands are in the 4 first rounders territoriy which team is willing to do that?

One strategy from other teams in terms of offsheet could be to wait out till nov and see how leafs cap structure is and then offersheet marner in late november where leafs do not have much time to make roster moves to match it

I am assuming here that if leafs say that they will not negotiate after october 31st; then Ferris could technically go and seek an offersheet (less money) from other teams (which pro-rated could mean higher cap hit for the leafs and over cap ceiling); question is that how long can leafs delay the negotiation after the season starts such that there are no cap implications to match an offersheet or get the deal done.

What is the cut-off date realistically speaking?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Matthews is the 3rd highest paid player in terms of AAV in the league after McDavid and Panarin; has never led the team in points; health is an issue and yet made the bank thanks to Dubas' incompetence in negotiating contracts.

weird thing to lie about since he did that as a rookie

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I am not sure that can be used as leverage; as due to cap situation Leafs can just tell them that they won't sign marner in december; it is sign now or sit for the season.

other option could be a offersheet threat based on the rumours marner camp demands are in the 4 first rounders territoriy which team is willing to do that?

One strategy from other teams in terms of offsheet could be to wait out till nov and see how leafs cap structure is and then offersheet marner in late november where leafs do not have much time to make roster moves to match it

I am assuming here that if leafs say that they will not negotiate after october 31st; then Ferris could technically go and seek an offersheet (less money) from other teams (which pro-rated could mean higher cap hit for the leafs and over cap ceiling); question is that how long can leafs delay the negotiation after the season starts such that there are no cap implications to match an offersheet or get the deal done.

What is the cut-off date realistically speaking?

Here's a model on how available space for Marner decreases:

Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August

 

[PromisedLand]

weird thing to lie about since he did that as a rookie

yup my bad

 

[DopeyFish]

The Leafs do not have the cap space even with using both Horton and Clarkson LTIR to pay Marner to allow this to extend into the season because of the impact on the cap in year #1 and how LTIR is fixed and Marner's cap hit would be variable and increase the longer he is unsigned.

I think Ferris and Marner will use that as leverage to get a better contract then what is presently on the table the closer we get to regular season, which unfortunately means a bigger cap hit contract to manage.

the thing that's weird that we aren't exactly sure of...

if he signs an offer sheet late in the season, we know that the opposing team does not get the inflation because it's another team signing. but does that hold true to if we match it?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

the thing that's weird that we aren't exactly sure of...

if he signs an offer sheet late in the season, we know that the opposing team does not get the inflation because it's another team signing. but does that hold true to if we match it?

I had a bit of back and forth on this with mouser and he seems to be of the opinion that it would not hold true if we matched (i.e., the 1st year would still require inflation), as it is the team who owns the players' rights signing the player. There are 2 clauses in the CBA that describe the outcomes of signing an RFA in-season. The outcome where the team who owns the rights describes the in-year inflation whereas the clause that describes another team signing the player has no such statements. I don't have the exact article numbers he referenced but can dig it up from my posting history if you're particularly interested.

 

[PromisedLand]

the thing that's weird that we aren't exactly sure of...

if he signs an offer sheet late in the season, we know that the opposing team does not get the inflation because it's another team signing. but does that hold true to if we match it?

my understanding was that any contract signed after the season starts with or without offersheet will have inflated cap implications.

Why is the other team allowed to offersheet RFA on your team say in late november and not have cap implications? that is unfair advantage for the other team.

 

[Stamkos4life]

yea right..... repeating the same BS without acknowledging the change in NHL rules and the style of play in different era is debunking arguments? one of the most pathetic ways of laying a claim I've ever seen on these boards.

#Pathetic

There's no point in arguing with posters who cant be impartial.

According to some posters around here, Matthew's > malkin, matthews > McDavid , etc. Its getting embarrasing when they have to use /60 numbers to try and paint the narrative they want. Any other fans would laugh in their face.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

According to some posters around here, Matthew's > malkin

Really? Can you show me one?