Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[81Leafs50]

To be clear, I have no issues with Matthews' AAV, I have issues with his term.

whats the difference?

he will sign long term 8 years as a UFA for the same cap percentage in 5 years. Yes, the AAV will be higher because the cap is higher but Matthews has set the bar at 14.63%.

As long as the Leafs can keep their players and fit everyone under the cap long term, then I really dont care about term or dollar amounts.

 

[Notsince67]

To be clear, I have no issues with Matthews' AAV, I have issues with his term.

Matthews was overpaid but what is done is done. I've seen analysis that had him at 9.9MM x 5 years and 10.5MM x 8.
No use crying over spilled milk so please no responses from anyone about demanding consistency...

 

[Mess]

To be clear, I have no issues with Matthews' AAV, I have issues with his term.

Unfortunately those 2 things are not mutually exclusive AAV and Term but directly connected.

AAV is a calculated number used only for Team salary cap purposes not an actual figure and the net results of average total contract dollars divided by term of contract.

AAV = $$$ / Term

Term is 1 of the 2 components that make up AAV..

In a players contract the RFA years are the cheaper years and the UFA are the expensive years and so teams try and buy as many UFA high priced years away from a player because then when averaged against the lower priced RF A years it lowers the AAV and makes the cap hit more Team friendly to benefit the team. The player still gets the same money he agrees to only has to work more years at that rate of pay to receive it.

Matthews contract @ $11.634 mil AAV calculated over 8 years term is the correct AAV amount, to get to $11.634 for just 5 years means both the Term and therefore the AAV are bad.

Take McDavid as an example. 8 year deal where the 1st 4 X RFA years have a value of say $10 mil per and the last 4 UFA years have a value of $15 mil per and his AAV (average ) is $12.50 mil and that number is calculated by $100 mil total / 8 years = $12.5 mil.

$10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil [4 X RFA years 1-4 ] & $15 mil +15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil [4 X UFA years 5-8].

If McDavid deal was 3 years in length it would be calculated $10 X 3 = $30/3 = $10 mil AAV, if it was 5 years it be 4 X $10 + 1 X $15 = $55 mil/5 years = $11 mil AAV & if it were 6 years it would be $70 mil / 6 years = $11.66 mil AAV.

Matthews $11.634 mil over $5 years >> McDavid contract AAV over 5 years. McDavid AAV after 6 years term = Matthews on just 5 years @ $11.6.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yeah unless he can stay healthy he isn’t gonna get more points than Marner. I hope he does this year and challenges for the rocket Richard. But I still believe Marner will end up with more career points though

So basically the poster is saying Matthews will never be healthy, because otherwise he has put up more points. Kind of a douche stance huh.

 

[Leafsfan13]

I’m hoping he stays healthy and we see both Matthews and Marner in top 5 scoring for years to come. Both healthy I still see Marner scoring my career points but that’s just my personal opinion. I could very easily be wrong.

 

[Nineteen67]

whats the difference?

he will sign long term 8 years as a UFA for the same cap percentage in 5 years. Yes, the AAV will be higher because the cap is higher but Matthews has set the bar at 14.63%.

As long as the Leafs can keep their players and fit everyone under the cap long term, then I really dont care about term or dollar amounts.

I think the Leafs are looking at cap percentage.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

The kid should even get better. Problem is that he has $$$$ signs in his eyes and not Stanley Cups. I can see why it would be difficult to do after seeing Nylander and Matthews get the max but he needs to think big picture if he wants to be a long time Leaf.

I don't know if Mitch's camp thought this through very well in the sense that if we don't win a cup and MM gets $11M+ for his contract...he is going to be forever known as the greedy kid who killed our Cup chance. He will be vilified for not being worth the money in relation to other players like Kucherov who took a bit less. He is setting himself up for some bad mojo coming his way if he doesn't play lights out every single season.

I can see him wanting to get traded out of here because of the attention he is going to get if he doesn't perform to a crazy high level. AM got what he got because of the real threat of an offer sheet....he still should have taken less for a 5yr term IMO...but the team was kind of stuck and he was being greedy. Having a second player being greedy is going to be killer for the teams balance going forward.

I don't think MM realizes how much pressure is going to be on him if he doesn't do a deal. The media will constantly harp on the lack of supporting cast he has BECAUSE of his contract being over the top. We are lucky Kap and Andreas signed reasonable deals and Moore is on a cheap deal. Will we always be so lucky?

 

[egd27]

Tavares and Matthews would not gel together like people think. Matthews is by far better with guys like Nylander or Marner. It was curious this year at exactly how bad Tavares and Matthews were at things like royal road passes and behind the net passes (IMO the most dangerous type). If the leafs want to unlock more scoring, these 2 guys need to be better at stuff like this. Together they are a bit of a liability

Not what was suggested.

 

[Notsince67]

Not what was suggested.

I was responding to " If matthews was playing with the equivalent of tavares i am not so sure he wouldnt put up more points."

 

[deletethis]

I hope Dubas understands that of the 3 young guns it is Marner who is easily the most likely to want to play the majority of his career in this city. That may be the leverage Dubas is hoping to use on Marner that he didn't have with the other 2.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Unfortunately those 2 things are not mutually exclusive AAV and Term but directly connected.

AAV is a calculated number used only for Team salary cap purposes not an actual figure and the net results of average total contract dollars divided by term of contract.

AAV = $$$ / Term

Term is 1 of the 2 components that make up AAV..

In a players contract the RFA years are the cheaper years and the UFA are the expensive years and so teams try and buy as many UFA high priced years away from a player because then when averaged against the lower priced RF A years it lowers the AAV and makes the cap hit more Team friendly to benefit the team. The player still gets the same money he agrees to only has to work more years at that rate of pay to receive it.

Matthews contract @ $11.634 mil AAV calculated over 8 years term is the correct AAV amount, to get to $11.634 for just 5 years means both the Term and therefore the AAV are bad.

Take McDavid as an example. 8 year deal where the 1st 4 X RFA years have a value of say $10 mil per and the last 4 UFA years have a value of $15 mil per and his AAV (average ) is $12.50 mil and that number is calculated by $100 mil total / 8 years = $12.5 mil.

$10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil + $10 mil [4 X RFA years 1-4 ] & $15 mil +15 mil + $15 mil + $15 mil [4 X UFA years 5-8].

If McDavid deal was 3 years in length it would be calculated $10 X 3 = $30/3 = $10 mil AAV, if it was 5 years it be 4 X $10 + 1 X $15 = $55 mil/5 years = $11 mil AAV & if it were 6 years it would be $70 mil / 6 years = $11.66 mil AAV.

Matthews $11.634 mil over $5 years >> McDavid contract AAV over 5 years. McDavid AAV after 6 years term = Matthews on just 5 years @ $11.6.

Or, he just got a bit less than the Malkin contract, being a solid comparable for how well they played up until they signed their post-ELC contracts.

 

[ULF_55]

I think the Leafs are looking at cap percentage.

I also think Matthews will move to a better US market.

Are you suggesting he's more interested in being a big man in a small pond?

Does he play basketball, football, baseball?

 

[ULF_55]

Let's try and keep the discussion about Marner.

This is directed to everyone, including me.

It is easy to go from discussing Marner in comparison to player X, and then the discussion becomes about player X.

 

[stickty111]

Yet Marner has more career points. I wonder why

It's all about staying healthy. It's not because Marner is a better point producer.

 

[LeafChief]

Some 'Leafs fans' will never be happy.

Go watch a game from 5 seasons ago and tell me how you feel. For some reason, you guys feel the need to pin players against one another (Liljegren vs Sandin, Marner vs Matthews, etc), rather than simply being content with the fact that we have both.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Some 'Leafs fans' will never be happy.

Go watch a game from 5 seasons ago and tell me how you feel. For some reason, you guys feel the need to pin players against one another (Liljegren vs Sandin, Marner vs Matthews, etc), rather than simply being content with the fact that we have both.

Yup and given the landscape has changed and we had our 3 stars needing deals Dubas et al have been great. Dubas addresses needs and isn’t afraid to pull the trigger
Marner is following his agents advice and who would argue that advice, and terms they are looking for are in line?

 

[kb]

Some 'Leafs fans' will never be happy.

Go watch a game from 5 seasons ago and tell me how you feel. For some reason, you guys feel the need to pin players against one another (Liljegren vs Sandin, Marner vs Matthews, etc), rather than simply being content with the fact that we have both.

Exactly Some Leaf fans think that pitting players against each other makes them smarter. When it's the exact opposite. They should be enjoying having elite players at most positions.

 

[morph]

Yep but its actually a common thing amongst many older people.

They have lived their entire life a certain way so when something New/Different comes along, they usually dont like it.

Him being extremely young and also being heavy into analytics drives some people nuts.

His vision and ideas of how a team should be built/play go against the views of many long time hockey watchers and it triggers them.

This is a "heavy into analytics" guy:



Dubas just uses the word "analytics" a lot.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Or, he just got a bit less than the Malkin contract, being a solid comparable for how well they played up until they signed their post-ELC contracts.

Malkin had a 106 point season. Matthews had a (lol) 70 point season.

This would NEVER happen in reverse. If Matthews had a 106 point season, and I tried using career-high 70 point players as comparables, I would be seen as a troll. NOBODY would stand for such an argument.

Let me show you what this is like in reverse. That's a 36 point difference between Malkin and Matthews. Let's do it with Marner. 94 points. So the comparison would be a 60 point player.

Ehlers is just as good as Marner and deserves the same amount of money.

There. See how silly this looks in reverse? SEE HOW SILLY THIS LOOKS IN REVERSE?

 

[TheBigThree]

Am I the only one that hasn't really followed the marner thing in the offseason, or leafs related stuff? After nylander and matthews getting overpaid I kinda lost interest in the team. Don't get me wrong, I'll come on here once ever month or so to see what's going on but I just don't care like I used to. The greediness of these players is really ruining it for me.

 

[zeke]

Malkin had a 106 point season. Matthews had a (lol) 70 point season.

This would NEVER happen in reverse. If Matthews had a 106 point season, and I tried using career-high 70 point players as comparables, I would be seen as a troll. NOBODY would stand for such an argument.

Let me show you what this is like in reverse. That's a 36 point difference between Malkin and Matthews. Let's do it with Marner. 94 points. So the comparison would be a 60 point player.

Ehlers is just as good as Marner and deserves the same amount of money.

There. See how silly this looks in reverse? SEE HOW SILLY THIS LOOKS IN REVERSE?

only thing that looks silly to me there is somebody actually making their entire valuation system based on raw points and nothing else. and trust me, it looks super silly.

Last 2yrs:

Matthews ES (A qoc), 2.94p/60, 2.52p1/60 --- PP 6.48p/60, 5.10p1/60
Malkin ES (B+ qoc), 2.55p/60, 2.11p1/60 ----- PP 7.33p/60, 4.30p1/60
Marner ES (A qoc), 2.47p/60, 2.06p1/60 ----- PP 7.11p/60, 4.79p1/60
Ehlers ES (B+ qoc), 2.06p/60, 1.70p1/60 ----- PP 4.86p/60, 3.64p1/60

Malkin and Marner are fairly comparable offensively, but nowhere near Matthews. (though marner has a more promising career arc going forward at this point than malkin, of course.) Ehlers is well behind all of them.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Am I the only one that hasn't really followed the marner thing in the offseason, or leafs related stuff? After nylander and matthews getting overpaid I kinda lost interest in the team. Don't get me wrong, I'll come on here once ever month or so to see what's going on but I just don't care like I used to. The greediness of these players is really ruining it for me.

It's really bothering me as well.

Spanning the entire modern history of the nhl, the leafs have been the type of team that builds around overpaying ufa's. Rfa's are cheap, but the leafs never had the patience to draft and develop them properly.

Then, after god knows how many years, the leafs FINALLY do a proper top to bottom rebuild through the draft. The VERY MOMENT the leafs young players hit rfa, that's the PRECISE moment (allegedly) where there is a paradigm shift, and now rfa's (not ufa's) get overpaid.

That's a level of bad luck that has to be more than coincidence. It's unacceptable. Either this team is literally cursed and doomed to failure, or there is an orchestrated league-wide agenda against us.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

only thing that looks silly to me there is somebody actually making their entire valuation system based on raw points and nothing else. and trust me, it looks super silly.

Last 2yrs:

Matthews ES (A qoc), 2.94p/60, 2.52p1/60 --- PP 6.48p/60, 5.10p1/60
Malkin ES (B+ qoc), 2.55p/60, 2.11p1/60 ----- PP 7.33p/60, 4.30p1/60
Marner ES (A qoc), 2.47p/60, 2.06p1/60 ----- PP 7.11p/60, 4.79p1/60
Ehlers ES (B+ qoc), 2.06p/60, 1.70p1/60 ----- PP 4.86p/60, 3.64p1/60

Malkin and Marner are fairly comparable offensively, but nowhere near Matthews. (though marner has a more promising career arc at this point than malkin, of course.) Ehlers is well behind all of them.

Regardless of all spin, rhetoric, and stat-mining... this would NEVER be acceptable in reverse. We would NEVER compare 70 point players on other teams to 110 point leaf players.

We would NEVER compare 20 goal/60 point players on other teams to 34 goal/70 point leaf players. NEVER.

If I took 110 point Matthews and suggested that some other 70 point player was "just as good" based on /60 type stats, I would be laughed right out of this place.

The whole /60 thing has become a meme at this point. I was on a reddit thread asking about Toronto's night life, and someone responded that it's mediocre, but the best "nightlife /60". It was heavily upvoted and everyone laughed in response. I'm just fed up and wish we didn't always have such a horrible reputation.

I mean, come on. Our rookie gm was in over his head and handed out horrible contracts. Our mediocre team has never passed the 1st round. Why is that so hard to admit to? Why not just accept it?

 

[zeke]

Regardless of all spin, rhetoric, and stat-mining... this would NEVER be acceptable in reverse. We would NEVER compare 70 point players on other teams to 110 point leaf players.

We would NEVER compare 20 goal/60 point players on other teams to 34 goal/70 point leaf players. NEVER.

If I took 110 point Matthews and suggested that some other 70 point player was "just as good" based on /60 type stats, I would be laughed right out of this place.

The whole /60 thing has become a meme at this point. I was on a reddit thread asking about Toronto's night life, and someone responded that it's mediocre, but the best "nightlife /60". It was heavily upvoted and everyone laughed in response. I'm just fed up and wish we didn't always have such a horrible reputation.

I mean, come on. Our rookie gm was in over his head and handed out horrible contracts. Our mediocre team has never passed the 1st round. Why is that so hard to admit to? Why not just accept it?

The only thing I find unacceptable is somebody actually believing that evaluating players by their raw point totals is smart or reality based.

 

[PromisedLand]

No way bro, if he signs for 3 years and the AAV is under 9M I'll be shocked, shocked I tell you

i will finally give dubas credit for getting at least one high profile done right if it were to happen. Personally I am hoping between 9AAV to 10AAV for 6 years so that Marner is up for new contract right when JT is off the books