Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[Mr Hockey]

I've been fairly critical of how public this negotiation process has been, but I've also remained fairly optimistic that a reasonable compromise would be eventually happen. And while that still may bE the case, a guy like Bobby Mac is smart enough that he needs to be fairly sure from a source before dropping a bombshell like that.

Do you mean this?

"As for Marner, my view from afar is that it’s probably close to or at the point where TOR hopes an offer sheet is tendered. That would allow/force closure, one way or the other. Match the offer sheet or take the compensation, but it would be done."

 

[Menzinger]

Do you mean this?

"As for Marner, my view from afar is that it’s probably close to or at the point where TOR hopes an offer sheet is tendered. That would allow/force closure, one way or the other. Match the offer sheet or take the compensation, but it would be done."

Yep.

Its speculation, but its an educated one. He doesnt have full reputation of pulling stuff put of thin air

 

[Ziggdiezan]

They cannot because we have LTIR to juggle this time around.

But why? If Marner signs late into the year the cap hit that is applied to year 1 is actually lower than what it would be if he signed the same contract in the summer. Sure the total cap hit is higher but he missed game time and wasnt signed so that cap hit isnt actually applied to the leafs.

Why this is done is to stop teams signing their players mid seasons to lower the pro rated cap hit in year 1 if they are in a cap bind for that season. For example, if they didnt inflate the first year and Marner signed 10 x 8 after missing 1/3rd the leafs would only be hit with a 6.66 million dollar cap hit the first year. The league didnt want teams using this strategy as they didnt want star players missing time so they inflate the first year to make sure there are no cap savings that year.

 

[4thline]

The trade is my preferred route. The Blue Jackets have a need for a high profile winger and with Jones they'd likely be willing to move Weresnki + if need be.

Had a decent talk with Jackets fans. I think we overestimate what the + would be in a Werenski deal, and what an overall package would look like.

Odds are if he's being traded there its because he decides to accept "the big long term offer" and they're trying to find a trade they like better than 4x 1st rounder. In terms of getting a significant forward back most of them had a reserve point of Savard/Nutivaara + Anderson/Bjorkstrand. Any more and they'd prefer to give us the picks, which is probably a reasonable valuation. There was at least one that would prefer dealing Werenski to the above pairs.

 

[Sypher04]

But why? If Marner signs late into the year the cap hit that is applied to year 1 is actually lower than what it would be if he signed the same contract in the summer. Sure the total cap hit is higher but he missed game time and wasnt signed so that cap hit isnt actually applied to the leafs.

Why this is done is to stop teams signing their players mid seasons to lower the pro rated cap hit in year 1 if they are in a cap bind for that season. For example, if they didnt inflate the first year and Marner signed 10 x 8 after missing 1/3rd the leafs would only be hit with a 6.66 million dollar cap hit the first year.

The Leafs need to get as close to the cap as possible before they put Horton on LTIR. If they did so now with 3.8 million of space they only would receive 1.5 million in relief. If they opt to delay putting him on LTIR then his actual cap hit at 5.3 begins to accrue. We need the full cap relief to accomodate a big salary for Marner, otherwise we're shipping out bodies and we've already stripped down pretty bare.

I get what you're saying about not inflating year 1 to pay him out in full and sure, technically, I think that could work, but if it costs Marner like 3-4M in year 1 because he can't be made whole what's even the point of pushing for the extra AAV?

 

[Menzinger]

Had a decent talk with Jackets fans. I think we overestimate what the + would be in a Werenski deal, and what an overall package would look like.

Odds are if he's being traded there its because he decides to accept "the big long term offer" and they're trying to find a trade they like better than 4x 1st rounder. In terms of getting a significant forward back most of them had a reserve point of Savard/Nutivaara + Anderson/Bjorkstrand. Any more and they'd prefer to give us the picks, which is probably a reasonable valuation. There was at least one that would prefer dealing Werenski to the above pairs.

Weresnki + younger top 9 winger/1st round pick +capspace would be enough for me if no compromise with Marner can be found. Werenski is the main return

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The Leafs need to get as close to the cap as possible before they put Horton on LTIR. If they did so now with 3.8 million of space they only would receive 1.5 million in relief. If they opt to delay putting him on LTIR then his actual cap hit at 5.3 begins to accrue.

I understand but I imagine the leafs would keep Horton off the LTIR until Marner signs then throw him on the LTIR right after when the leafs are close to the cap ceiling. Depending on how late Marner signs the leafs might accrue a decent amount of Horton's cap onto their cap structure but the reduction in the cap hit due to Marner signing late may help compensate for that.

All I'm saying is I'm not sure that this signing has to be done before opening day or else Marner sits for the year.

Edit: the league may also not allow something like that as the leafs would likely be over the cap for a few mins it takes to get Horton on the LTIR

 

[hfman]

so

has Mitch MOREner signed yet?

 

[Sypher04]

I understand but I imagine the leafs would keep Horton off the LTIR until Marner signs then throw him on the LTIR right after when the leafs are close to the cap ceiling. Depending on how late Marner signs the leafs might accrue a decent amount of Horton's cap onto their cap structure but the reduction in the cap hit due to Marner signing late may help compensate for that.

All I'm saying is I'm not sure that this signing has to be done before opening day or else Marner sits for the year.

To be clear, I don't think there's any scenario where Marner sits the year.
I get what you're saying about not inflating year 1 to pay him out in full and sure, technically, I think that could work, but for example, if this went to the deadline and it costs Marner like 3-4M in year 1 because we can't afford to make him whole like we did for Nylander what's even the point of pushing for the extra AAV after Oct 2? Keeping in mind all the negative effects of missing camp/season start. I guess without knowing where negotiations sit that's hard to judge, but I mean, if say the Leafs made it up to even 10.5, it's probably far more advantageous to just take it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yep.

Its speculation, but its an educated one. He doesnt have full reputation of pulling stuff put of thin air

Yup don't threaten to sign an offersheet, do it
But that won't happen

 

[Ziggdiezan]

To be clear, I don't think there's any scenario where Marner sits the year.
I get what you're saying about not inflating year 1 to pay him out in full and sure, technically, I think that could work, but for example, if this went to the deadline and it costs Marner like 3-4M in year 1 because we can't afford to make him whole like we did for Nylander what's even the point of pushing for the extra AAV after Oct 2? Keeping in mind all the negative effects of missing camp/season start.

There isnt really a benefit to leaving it late for the leafs. The only benefit is not getting strong armed into a bad contract. Marner benefit is obvious, trying to get as much cash as possible and as much AAV so he feels 'equal' to Matthews

We saw Nylander come crawling back at the last minute when the idea of missing an entire season was almost a reality. Maybe Mitch would do that too.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner for Dahlin would be similar to the RyJo for Jones trade. Sabres are deep with RHD and get a stud to play with Eichel. Leafs get a franchise dman and cap relief. I doubt Sabres do it though.

 

[biotk]

The trade is my preferred route. The Blue Jackets have a need for a high profile winger and with Jones they'd likely be willing to move Weresnki + if need be.

But as Werenski is a LHD and Toronto has Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin etc, why would the Leafs want Werenski as the main piece of a deal?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Had a decent talk with Jackets fans. I think we overestimate what the + would be in a Werenski deal, and what an overall package would look like.

Odds are if he's being traded there its because he decides to accept "the big long term offer" and they're trying to find a trade they like better than 4x 1st rounder. In terms of getting a significant forward back most of them had a reserve point of Savard/Nutivaara + Anderson/Bjorkstrand. Any more and they'd prefer to give us the picks, which is probably a reasonable valuation. There was at least one that would prefer dealing Werenski to the above pairs.

I'd rather have 4 first round picks if it was anything less than Werenski and a 1st for Marner straight up. I'd also consider Dubois + short term cap dump + high futures for Marner as well.

Originally thought we would add to Marner and Dermott to get both Werenski and Dubois, but really we don't need Werenski on this team with our LD depth so it may be better just to get Dubois and maybe a 1st.

Those 4 first round picks, on a team with arguably a bottom 5 center and goaltending group (depending on how Merzilkins and Dubois do), are a lot more valuable to this team than those pieces.

 

[Sypher04]

There isnt really a benefit to leaving it late for the leafs. The only benefit is not getting strong armed into a bad contract. Marner benefit is obvious, trying to get as much cash as possible and as much AAV so he feels 'equal' to Matthews

We saw Nylander come crawling back at the last minute when the idea of missing an entire season was almost a reality. Maybe Mitch would do that too.

The money Marner doesn't earn in the first 2 months of the year, if it went the distance, he simply may not make back.
Let's say hypothetically, the Leafs cave and give him 11.634M per for 5 years (the Matthews deal). Given they cannot make him whole, as we've seemingly already agreed on, so Marner would lose approximately one third of the first year of the contract or 3.878M

3.878M divided by 5 years, effectively shaves 0.7756M per year off his AAV, while cost us that against the cap. Nobody wins here, it's dead money effectively.

I'm just not sure the difference between say 10.5 and 10.8584 is that wide that someone should be able to justify losing training camp and the first 2 months of the regular season to achieve it.

This all said, I don't claim to know these numbers have been offered, I'm talking purely hypotheticals

 

[IPS]

Marner for Dahlin would be similar to the RyJo for Jones trade. Sabres are deep with RHD and get a stud to play with Eichel. Leafs get a franchise dman and cap relief. I doubt Sabres do it though.

Dahlin is a LHD.

 

[4thline]

Those 4 first round picks, on a team with arguably a bottom 5 center and goaltending group (depending on how Merzilkins and Dubois do), are a lot more valuable to this team than those pieces.

I think you're under rating "those pieces."

Savard is IMO a Muzzin level 3D, the perfect RHD for Rielly that would complete the picture and pretty unequivocally turn our D into a strength.

Bjorkstrand/Anderson are very different players. Anderson brings an element that we lack and could like be a Lee level powerfoward (but with way more nasty) on Tavares wing, but as a Ferris client one year out from RFA Bjorkstrand might be more enticing as a Kap+ level winger that could likely go 30-30 playing with JT for 2.5 million dollars.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

Marner for Dahlin would be similar to the RyJo for Jones trade. Sabres are deep with RHD and get a stud to play with Eichel. Leafs get a franchise dman and cap relief. I doubt Sabres do it though.

Marner's camp will never tell you this but wingers don't have the kind of value to get a player like Dahlin. Even if we added.

 

[Subway Schenn]

Marner for Dahlin would be similar to the RyJo for Jones trade. Sabres are deep with RHD and get a stud to play with Eichel. Leafs get a franchise dman and cap relief. I doubt Sabres do it though.

I'd move Kapanen, Marner and Liljegren for Dahlin. And Buffalo still probably wouldn't do it.

 

[Advanced stats]

so

has Mitch MOREner signed yet?

No, and neither has
Payden Point
Money Rantanen
Patcheck Laine
Matthew Fatcheck


Note: the point is not that these players haven't signed, but that nicknames are stupid.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think you're under rating "those pieces."

Savard is IMO a Muzzin level 3D, the perfect RHD for Rielly that would complete the picture and pretty unequivocally turn our D into a strength.

Bjorkstrand/Anderson are very different players. Anderson brings an element that we lack and could like be a Lee level powerfoward (but with way more nasty) on Tavares wing, but as a Ferris client one year out from RFA Bjorkstrand might be more enticing as a Kap+ level winger that could likely go 30-30 playing with JT for 2.5 million dollars.

Savard is not Muzzin level. He could play well with Rielly, but he's not Muzzin level. He's also 29 years old with two years remaining before he gets a big pay day himself.

Just like Anderson and Bjorkstrand are cheap for a little bit but they will soon want to get paid, and they are not core players on cup winning teams. At best they are high end role players who play up besides our good players, but you are not giving up as valuable as Marner for those pieces. I'm not underrating anything.

One (or more) of Dubois, Werenski, Jones or 1st round picks have to be a part of the package for the Leafs to even consider it value-wise.

 

[Menzinger]

But as Werenski is a LHD and Toronto has Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin etc, why would the Leafs want Werenski as the main piece of a deal?

Opens up room to move Muzzin or Dermott for another rhd

 

[Pookie]

Sure.

No disagreement.

I’d like too but have to wait it out

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Some Potential Marner Trades:
​

Leafs - Blues
Colton Parayko, Braden Schenn, 2nd
for
Mitch Marner, Cody Ceci

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Schenn - Tavares - Kapanen

Rielly - Parayko
Muzzin - Barrie

Leafs - Ducks
Rickard Rakell, Josh Manson, Nick Ritchie, 1st
for
Mitch Marner, Cody Ceci

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - Tavares - Rakell

Rielly - Manson
Muzzin - Barrie

Leafs - Blue Jackets
Zack Werenski, Josh Anderson
for
Mitch Marner, Trevor Moore, 3rd

Johnsson - Matthews - Anderson
Hyman - Tavares - Nylander

Rielly - Werenski
Muzzin - - Barrie

Leafs - Red Wings
Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, 1st
for
Mitch Marner, 2nd/3rd

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Nylander
Mantha - Tavares - Kapanen

Rielly - Ceci
Muzzin - Barrie

Leafs - Flames
Matthew Tkachuk, Tavis Hamonic
for
Mitch Marner, Cody Ceci

Tkachuk - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Nylander

Rielly - Hamonic
Muzzin - Barrie

Leafs - Flyers
Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny
for
Mitch Marner, Cody Ceci

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - Tavares - Konecny

Rielly - Provorov
Muzzin - Barrie

Some of those are good starting points, but none of them really jump out enough for the Leafs to really consider them as is IMO.

LOL. Most of these already favour the Leafs. Good luck.

 

[justafan22]

Opens up room to move Muzzin or Dermott for another rhd

Bingo. Dermott's nice but he might not be anything more than a #4 d which is fine.

Rielly - Barrie

Werenski - Dermott

Borgman - Liljegren