Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[Pookie]

Dreger is long gone on vacation dude. Bobby Mac doesn’t even return calls this time of year he said. They’re off the clock unless something big happens, don’t read anything into his silence.

Aho does help Dubas though.

Eichel helps Marner

 

[Cor]

Mitch Marner won't sit out this season.

Not with a potential lockout looming next season.

 

[Sypher04]

You can only take a hardline stance with a core player to a point guys.
It's nice to say things like set a date and if he's not signed sit him for the year or trade him or the offer will go down every day you don't accept.
The problem with all these is you neither want to be forced to trade him and you also want to still have a good relationship with the player when the negotiations end.
We don't want to bully Marner into a contract any more than we want to be bullied into one by his camp.
There is a middle ground somewhere to be found that will appease both sides and leave enough of a bridge between the camps that negotiations can be made in good faith and spirits again next time around.
That's what they are searching for and I'm willing to bet they will find it.
We just have to be patient. A virtue not known to be in great supply around these parts lol

 

[57 Years No Cup]

The butthurt is strong among some of you "fans". It's the middle of July. Relax.

 

[Pookie]

They don't want another Nylander situation. I like Lou's philosophy - if things don't get done you sit for the year. But if it comes to that I'd rather he be moved.
He wants to be here though, that much is clear. He's sure not making it easy though and his brand is taking a beating unnecessarily IMO

I’m fine if they don’t want to sign him.

But I’m not fine if they don’t trade him.

You can’t burn JT’s good years, Rielly’s remaining years, the 1 year deals to the D and Andersen’s 2 seasons before UFA status.

You need Marner or a Marner equivalent asset on the ice next season. Anything else is a failure on a Dubas’ part.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Context is important:

Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Connor, Boeser, Laine, Trouba, Werenski, Provorov are all still unsigned as well. Trouba was even dealt to a new team and is still working out a deal.

I'm starting to think it's not a Marner-specific issue on him not being signed at this point, the offer sheet leverage he had to dwindling. I would guess that his camp is hanging onto what his peers will sign for as leverage. Aho is a start but there are other big names out there to benchmark. If Rantanen gets a big contract, Marner's camp will cling to that.

The good news is Tampa usually gets their players at a discount ... So Point signing for less and Aho's contract would really help Dubas' case.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I’m fine if they don’t want to sign him.

But I’m not fine if they don’t trade him.

You can’t burn JT’s good years, Rielly’s remaining years, the 1 year deals to the D and Andersen’s 2 seasons before UFA status.

You need Marner or a Marner equivalent asset on the ice next season. Anything else is a failure on a Dubas’ part.

Agreed

 

[nuck]

I think it's become abundantly clear that no team in the NHL is willing to offer sheet Marner based on the term and AAV his camp is demanding. He has no leverage.

Either he accepts terms that make sense for the organization, or let him sit or play in the KHL this season. Enough is enough.

Willie went to the absolute 11th hour before almost losing the season. I don't know what is driving these guys except maybe the knowledge the team will probably make them whole for the games missed. Mitch could go down to the bell also, because he expects Dubas to cave. Maybe he needs a bridge to show the club he has another level before locking in long term but there is a risk factor. After Kane's "Marneresque" year three he had two poor seasons. Imagine Patty if he hadn't won a Cup and was trying to hit a contract home run off of 70pts.

I don't think he sits out the year under any circumstances but he will make the club wait.

 

[Pookie]

Probably no more than Marner is willing to miss out on ~$8M of earnings (or whatever his salary differrential will be between his NHL earnings on a new contract and what he'd make in the KHL).

So Marner misses some salary.

And the Leafs miss better odds at the Cup.

Not a fair trade in my books.

Sign or trade. There is no sit.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Context is important:

Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Connor, Boeser, Laine, Trouba, Werenski, Provorov are all still unsigned as well. Trouba was even dealt to a new team and is still working out a deal.

I'm starting to think it's not a Marner-specific issue on him not being signed at this point, the offer sheet leverage he had to dwindling. I would guess that his camp is hanging onto what his peers will sign for as leverage. Aho is a start but there are other big names out there to benchmark.

Exactly Bert. This is a concerted effort by the NHLPA to bust the CBA system. And it just might work.

I expect a big work stoppage soon.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Context is important:

Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Connor, Boeser, Laine, Trouba, Werenski, Provorov are all still unsigned as well. Trouba was even dealt to a new team and is still working out a deal.

I'm starting to think it's not a Marner-specific issue on him not being signed at this point, the offer sheet leverage he had to dwindling. I would guess that his camp is hanging onto what his peers will sign for as leverage. Aho is a start but there are other big names out there to benchmark. If Rantanen gets a big contract, Marner's camp will cling to that.

The good news is Tampa usually gets their players at a discount ... So Point signing for less and Aho's contract would really help Dubas' case.

The landscape has def changed. I just think if Marner's camp would have kept quiet, they wouldn't be taking so much heat right now.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Exactly Bert. This is a concerted effort by the NHLPA to bust the CBA system. And it just might work.

I expect a big work stoppage soon.

Yup the entire league is setup to help small markets teams and create parity.

RFAs getting paid top dollar will really really hurt small market teams so we will see a change to ensure that doesnt happen. Bettman #1 priority is making sure the small market american teams stay afloat

 

[Sypher04]

Willie went to the absolute 11th hour before almost losing the season. I don't know what is driving these guys except maybe the knowledge the team will probably make them whole for the games missed. Mitch could go down to the bell also, because he expects Dubas to cave. Maybe he needs a bridge to show the club he has another level before locking in long term but there is a risk factor. After Kane's "Marneresque" year three he had two poor seasons. Imagine Patty if he hadn't won a Cup and was trying to hit a contract home run off of 70pts.

I don't think he sits out the year under any circumstances but he will make the club wait.

Well Dubas never caved with Nylander so that'd be an odd stance to take.
Nevermind that the Leafs cannot afford to do what they did for Nylander this time around for Marner.
Marner needs to sign by Oct 2nd or the cap dictates that either the offer will have to worsen or we'll be looking at trading a player to accommodate him.

 

[Pookie]

Context is important:

Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Connor, Boeser, Laine, Trouba, Werenski, Provorov are all still unsigned as well. Trouba was even dealt to a new team and is still working out a deal.

I'm starting to think it's not a Marner-specific issue on him not being signed at this point, the offer sheet leverage he had to dwindling. I would guess that his camp is hanging onto what his peers will sign for as leverage. Aho is a start but there are other big names out there to benchmark. If Rantanen gets a big contract, Marner's camp will cling to that.

The good news is Tampa usually gets their players at a discount ... So Point signing for less and Aho's contract would really help Dubas' case.

It’s a CBA issue.

I raised this point last year with Nylander. Very good players coming off ELC deals have just one point of leverage.

Sit.

If they gave them arbitration rights, you’d have a resolution mechanism in place without the need to drag players and GMs through the mud.

Shanahan wouldn’t need to come out and paint players as greedy (and himself as a saint even though he held out too).

Fans wouldn’t need to criticize Dubas for finding resolutions they deem as too expensive.

And most deals would get resolved without needing Arbitration.

It’s set up to be silly right now and it’s really silly.

 

[al secord]

Dreger is long gone on vacation dude. Bobby Mac doesn’t even return calls this time of year he said. They’re off the clock unless something big happens, don’t read anything into his silence.

Aho does help Dubas though.

I'm sure Dreg's can answer at text from Ferris from whatever Florida time share he's at.

 

[FlareKnight]

I think it is just a long road. Have to wait until Marner's camp gets over this stupid obsession with making Matthews their comparable. Going to be a long Summer until the pressure mounts enough for Marner to tell his agent to just take the best offer. The only positive is that the pressure is going to mount so much harder than it did with Nylander. Good luck hanging around anywhere in Ontario while being a holdout.

But for the time being it will be a slow crawl. There is a line for the Leafs on where they can or can't go with Marner. Once he figures out which side of that line is which it will get done.

 

[Clark4Ever]

So you are willing to tank a season with less than the best roster then?

Of course I would prefer to sign him to a reasonable contract or trade him for equivalent assets.

The problem is, any team willing to trade for him is ultimately going to have come to terms with Marner's camp. Based on the rhetoric to this point, that doesn't seem likely.

 

[DarkKnight]

I'm sure Dreg's can answer at text from Ferris from whatever Florida time share he's at.

Kind of misses the point. He isn’t on the air or reporting, just like Bobby Mac, Kipper, Leafs Lunch, Hockey Central, there gone after free agent frenzy, especially the high profile ones. Like I said, Bobby Mac even tells people in hockey to not contact him after free agent frenzy. So yes people can read a text, but to say he’s gone quiet because of anything other than it’s the summer and he’s gone is irrelevant. Point stands.

 

[Menzinger]

Or trade him for two nice young pieces, RHD and RW, and be done with it.

I would lean towards this because we need pieces in our lineup short term and long term if Marner isn't in it. Trade him for a youngish RHD locked up for 4-5 million annually, and a young RW that is proven that is locked up 3-5 million annually.

LATER

The trade is my preferred route. The Blue Jackets have a need for a high profile winger and with Jones they'd likely be willing to move Weresnki + if need be.

 

[Mr Hockey]

not long ago Leafs fans woould have given there left nut for a Marner type player ...

 

[Menzinger]

It’s a CBA issue.

I raised this point last year with Nylander. Very good players coming off ELC deals have just one point of leverage.

Sit.

If they gave them arbitration rights, you’d have a resolution mechanism in place without the need to drag players and GMs through the mud.

Shanahan wouldn’t need to come out and paint players as greedy (and himself as a saint even though he held out too).

Fans wouldn’t need to criticize Dubas for finding resolutions they deem as too expensive.

And most deals would get resolved without needing Arbitration.

It’s set up to be silly right now and it’s really silly.

I do agree part of this problem has been brought on by the league. If they'd done right by younger players years earlier we wouldnt see agents be taking such bullish tactics now.

But that said, without a time machine we cant change the current system and Dubas has to use every advantage he has for the competitiveness of the team.

 

[ToneDog]

not long ago Leafs fans woould have given there left nut for a Marner type player ...

Some Leaf fans in general do not support players they think are greedy (Marner, Nylander) or make too much money and suck (Djon, Murphy, McCabe, Clarkson).

 

[Menzinger]

I've been fairly critical of how public this negotiation process has been, but I've also remained fairly optimistic that a reasonable compromise would be eventually happen. And while that still may bE the case, a guy like Bobby Mac is smart enough that he needs to be fairly sure from a source before dropping a bombshell like that.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well Dubas never caved with Nylander so that'd be an odd stance to take.
Nevermind that the Leafs cannot afford to do what they did for Nylander this time around for Marner.
Marner needs to sign by Oct 2nd or the cap dictates that either the offer will have to worsen or we'll be looking at trading a player to accommodate him.

This is an interesting thing, I'm pretty sure the leafs can do the same thing with Marner as the pro rated cap hit will be equal to the cap hit for the rest of the contract.

Say Marner signs a 10 x 8 contract after missing 1/3rd of the season. That means he would forfeit around 3.33 million dollars. 10 x 8 = 80 million - 3.3 = 76.7 million. His cap hit would then be 9.5875 for the remainder of the contract.

However the first year total cap hit is inflated to ensure the pro rated cap hit for the first season is equal to the cap hit for the remained of the contract.

If X= AAV
N = number of years
M = % of first year missed
C = cap hit for all years
T = total (non pro rated) cap hit in year 1

C= ((X*N) - (X *M))/N

However we also need to ensure that the total cap hit% is also inflated properly:

T *(1- M) = C
Whereby 1-M= % a player actually plays in year 1

Using my example for Marner (10x8) and missing 1/3rd of the season:

C =((10*8)-(33.3%*10))/8
C = 9.5875

T * (1-33.3%)= 9.5785
T = 14.3 million

Double checking my math with Nylander contract:
C = ((7.5 x 6) - (34%x7.5))/6
C = 7.075 million

T = 7.075/ (1-0.34)
T = 10.72 million.

May have the % of the season missed incorrect or they (as I suspect) are using a different formula to calculate the inflated value.


Edit: Regardless the important takeaway is that the leafs will only be hit with C, the cap hit% for the remaining years which is equal to the pro rated cap hit in the first year.

 

[Pookie]

Of course I would prefer to sign him to a reasonable contract or trade for him equivalent assets.

The problem is, any team willing to trade for him is ultimately going to have come to terms with Marner's camp. Based on the rhetoric to this point, that doesn't seem likely.

Trades are the worst case scenario.

Salary can be retained. Contracts can move. So while worst case, I don’t see it as a non starter.

I don’t think the terms are the issue with other teams. It’s that the length is too short to give up 4 picks.

A trade would presumably be for less than 4 picks.

 

[Pookie]

I do agree part of this problem has been brought on by the league. If they'd done right by younger players years earlier we wouldnt see agents be taking such bullish tactics now.

But that said, without a time machine we cant change the current system and Dubas has to use every advantage he has for the competitiveness of the team.

Sure.

No disagreement.

 

[Sypher04]

This is an interesting thing, I'm pretty sure the leafs can do the same thing with Marner as the pro rated cap hit will be equal to the cap hit for the rest of the contract.

Say Marner signs a 10 x 8 contract after missing 1/3rd of the season. That means he would forfeit around 3.33 million dollars. 10 x 8 = 80 million - 3.3 = 76.7 million. His cap hit would then be 9.5875 for the remainder of the contract.

However the first year total cap hit is inflated to ensure the pro rated cap hit for the first season is equal to the cap hit for the remained of the contract.

If X= AAV
N = number of years
M = % of first year missed
C = cap hit for all years
T = total (non pro rated) cap hit in year 1

C= ((X*N) - (X *M))/N

However we also need to ensure that the total cap hit% is also inflated properly:

T *(1- M) = C
Whereby 1-M= % a player actually plays in year 1

Using my example :

C =((10*8)-(33.3%*10))/8
C = 9.5875

T * (1-33.3%)= 9.5785
T = 14.3 million

Double checking my math with Nylander contract:
C = ((7.5 x 6) - (34%x7.5))/6
C = 7.075 million

T = 7.075/ (1-0.34)
T = 10.72 million.

May have the % of the season missed incorrect or they (as I suspect) are using a different formula to calculate the inflated value.


Edit: Regardless the important takeaway is that the leafs will only be hit with C, the cap hit% for the remaining years which is equal to the pro rated cap hit in the first year.

They cannot because we have LTIR implications to juggle this time around.