Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Winter is coming

[PromisedLand]

My buddy is worried his work contract won't be extended.

I wonder if Marner is worried about him?

am sure matthews, nylander and dubas are doing hail marys for your buddy right about now...

or for that matter every celebrity in the world is praying for your buddy; some have given up on food and drink until your buddy's contract is extended

 

[baton elevated]

Can you imagine... imagine... if he were a leaf and Dubas signed him? At three years, I'd guess closer to 7.

Can you imagine the way that his stats would be nitpicked by the usual suspects? The level they would be going to rationalize what Dubas gave him?

It just goes to show that, other than Dubas, there doesn't really seem to be a "new paradigm" for rfa's. All the other hold outs are waiting for Dubas to double down on overpayment on Marner (like he already did with Matthews), but as of RIGHT NOW, the new "rfa paradigm" is ENTIRELY created by Dubas.

I would agree with this statement Waffles except now Werenski has added a variable to this theory.

 

[PromisedLand]

Is Mirtle a chief negotiator that he knows how much is offered by the Leafs?

here is a hint: mirtle is a MORON

 

[Menzinger]

No offense but seeing you in the Nylander threads when he was RFA and in Marner threads; comparing your posts it is pretty evident your posts are very biased towards nylander

As a brosd rule I'd rather see players make a way bigger share of revenue than ownerships. I won't expect Marner to take a it's not the players job to balance the salary cap, but that doesnt mean we have to be content with absurd demands. Nylanders ask for 8.5 mil was absurd, as is Marner asking for Matthew's money.

If Nylanders camp had been as "public"with their negation strategy Marners camp seemingly has I probably would have taken a different tone. Instead Gross kept his head down and kept things out of the news cycle

 

[kb]

Are you happy with him scoring 70 points with 40 goals every year.

Please tell me what you think Matthews should get this year in goals and points to justify his contract.

He comes close to doing that in 60-65 games while playing hurt, and with no real help last year. He's healthy now that he had the pin removed from his leg.

 

[ULF_55]

am sure matthews, nylander and dubas are doing hail marys for your buddy right about now...

or for that matter every celebrity in the world is praying for your buddy; some have given up on food and drink until your buddy's contract is extended

Hunter Harrison never would.

 

[Menzinger]

Is Mirtle a chief negotiator that he knows how much is offered by the Leafs?

here is a hint: mirtle is a MORON

More likely the Athletic has several connections to the Leafs front office which should be pretty clear at this point (though you're likely not a subcriber). One of their main Leafs writers literally used to work for Duba with the .arlies lol

 

[nuck]

Is Mirtle a chief negotiator that he knows how much is offered by the Leafs?

here is a hint: mirtle is a MORON

No, I think Mirtle probably has a pseudo-source inside somewhere. Sometimes he gets solid intel, and other times his source wasn't privy to the right conversations. So that means some times his knowledge is spot on and other times a whole bunch of stuff happened his link wasn't in on. That is pretty common because the deciders don't usually leak stuff unless they want it to be leaked. Unless he is just a tap for MLSE of course, but he doesn't quite look like that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you are saying that each of 2 #1 class centers are worth relatively the same to a team relative to another team that lacks even one? Are you just being purposely obtuse?

In trade value, a team may be willing to overpay to fill a hole.
In actual added value to the team, it's the same.

This is specious. 1.5MM/year is not minor.

But the amount that he is paid more, whatever that may be, is because he's a better player, not just because he's a center or whatever.

We should be worried about this because he is already pissed off from being screwed out of bonuses 4 years ago and if he is our best player, the team is playing with fire.

There's no actual evidence that Marner is "pissed off", or that even if he was, it would affect anything. And he's not our best player.

At what threshold. Marner will get paid more than Gauthier and Spezza who are centers. As for goals, are you prepared to go on the record to state that Cam Atkinson is better than Marner and worth more because he had more goals last year?

...are you being serious? This is beyond ridiculous.

If Marner puts up 102 points and 35 goals vs Matthews at 88 points and 47 goals would you consider that an equal perform, an under perform or an over perform?

As I said, it depends on a lot of factors. There is also no evidence that that is how things will play out production-wise.

Additionally, is that evidence that the Leafs have miscalculated?

No, it would mean players develop and things change after signings sometimes. What matters is doing the right thing with the information you have at the time.

I want them both to do well... Will another injury give Matthews another pass?

 

[PromisedLand]

As a brosd rule I'd rather see players make a way bigger share of revenue than ownerships. I won't expect Marner to take a it's not the players job to balance the salary cap, but that doesnt mean we have to be content with absurd demands. Nylanders ask for 8.5 mil was absurd, as is Marner asking for Matthew's money.

If Nylanders camp had been as "public"with their negation strategy Marners camp seemingly has I probably would have taken a different tone. Instead Gross kept his head down and kept things out of the news cycle

Your posts about Nylander are biased and based on metrics that are filled with data biases.

your posts on marner are purely based on hearsay and your nylander/dubas fandom over the quality of player maner really is

marner has led the team in points 2 years in a row
marner meanwhile has played against oppositions' top lines for a season and a half (JT and then with kadri-komorov/marleau)

marner asking matthews money is basically speculation nothing has been proven yet; only thing that came out of paul marner's mouth that was reported in the media last year was that marner is easily 10 million dollar player;

the thing that is holding all the talk is term; a freakin' 5 year term that was given to matthews but is denied to marner

if dubas offered 10x5 to marner the deal would be done already; dubas screwed up by giving only a 5 year term to matthews at that ridiculous cap hit

 

[notdoneyet]

Conn Smythe

Honestly, I don't think any of them justify their contracts, just some are worse than others.

Well you must have an opinion after all you think he is worth that contract.

Are you afraid to give a number

At 11.6 he should be at the very least a 50/50 guy
After all you speak of him as a generational talent.

 

[ORRFForever]

am sure matthews, nylander and dubas are doing hail marys for your buddy right about now...

or for that matter every celebrity in the world is praying for your buddy; some have given up on food and drink until your buddy's contract is extended

Hopefully those Hail Mary's / rosaries will be enough to push him over the goal line.

 

[PromisedLand]

More likely the Athletic has several connections to the Leafs front office which should be pretty clear at this point (though you're likely not a subcriber). One of their main Leafs writers literally used to work for Duba with the .arlies lol

first yes am not a subscriber; I work hard for my money and prefer not wasting it on people claiming to do "statistics" who do not even have a freakin bachelors degree in math or stats but keep posting numbers/graphs on twitter as if it is alpha and omega (p.s. they are not).

second, i don't believe a word mirtle says; if dubas is so "tight lipped" about the deals I doubt he would let it slip to the so called "person" who would make the info available on a public platform like twitter

and if dubas is spewing information in confidence that then ends up being on a public platform like twitter then dubas just goes on showing that he is still an amateur with a lot to learn

 

[PromisedLand]

No, I think Mirtle probably has a pseudo-source inside somewhere. Sometimes he gets solid intel, and other times his source wasn't privy to the right conversations. So that means some times his knowledge is spot on and other times a whole bunch of stuff happened his link wasn't in on. That is pretty common because the deciders don't usually leak stuff unless they want it to be leaked. Unless he is just a tap for MLSE of course, but he doesn't quite look like that.

I used to read mirtle's stuff when he was employed at the globe and mail; from experience i can tell you his "insight" info cannot be trusted.

 

[Leaffanforlife]

At what point do we say it’s okay to end this Marner saga with a trade? Don’t get me wrong, the kid is a special player and is good at what he does but I don’t see him scoring 90 plus point without a guy like Tavares down the middle. I’m not going to lie the longer this drags the less passion I have for the player and more I just want it to be over. Trade Marner for another promising young RW, 1st round pick and the cap room is sounding nicer and nicer by the day.

 

[Warden of the North]

At no point until such time as he actually misses meaningful games. And then it would have to be a rock solid package of NHL ready talent. Our window is now, we dont have 3-4 years to wait for a 1st to develop.

 

[ULF_55]

Well you must have an opinion after all you think he is worth that contract.

Are you afraid to give a number

At 11.6 he should be at the very least a 50/50 guy
After all you speak of him as a generational talent.

I was waiting for this reply ...

I'd expect over 40 goals and over 80 points.

Points don't tell the entire story, so I won't base satisfaction based solely on points.

 

[Leaffanforlife]

I feel like the leafs are in good enough shape to use a good young RW coming back to put with Tavares and the first would be to just keep the system pumping out good young talent. Cap relief would allow us to sign some D for next season and keep this window open. No way can the league afford to have these young kids holding out till the last minute and have their teams cave, if that happens I feel like this will become the new norm in the NHl

 

[MattySnipes]

At no point. Trading him is not an avenue the Leafs should want to take. If you listened to Dubas' recent interview he went over this topic.

A deal will get done. Trades will not be explored until he is missing significant time for reasons only Marner is aware of. I'm optimistic both sides will come to agreement. I'm happy Werenski signed today too, hopefully the others follow suit.

 

[PromisedLand]

At what point do we say it’s okay to end this Marner saga with a trade? Don’t get me wrong, the kid is a special player and is good at what he does but I don’t see him scoring 90 plus point without a guy like Tavares down the middle. I’m not going to lie the longer this drags the less passion I have for the player and more I just want it to be over. Trade Marner for another promising young RW, 1st round pick and the cap room is sounding nicer and nicer by the day.

there is an easy answer:

trade nylander for a defenceman; sign marner net gain on cap; keep special player marner


Out: Nylander (7AAV)

In: Pesce (4AAV) + (pick/prospect)

Net gain: 3 AAV


Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Kapanen
Moore-Kerfoot-(Trade) use 3AAV net gain
Micheyev-Goat-Spezza

Muzzin Barrie
Rielly Pesce
Dermott Ceci (flip the guy at the TDL for a solid top6 D-man)
XXX

Next off season: give Ceci+Spezza+Cap increase to both Muzzin+Barrie fill bottom 6 role internally

Balance in the line up

top6 forwards and top4D-men are going to be consistent at least for the foreseeable future. Which is only going to help.

 

[Stephen]

I think the point Apotheosis is trying to make, is that if the Oilers dangled McDavid, they would absolutely demand Matthews in return. In that situation, yes, Matthews+Nylander is a much better choice than Matthews+Marner. I would say no ****ing way to the second, even considering how good McDavid actually is...

My hypothetical McDavid scenario was more like a kill two birds with one stone. Get rid of the headache whilst acquiring a true upgrade.

But yes, I agree. Edmonton would be demanding Matthews. Which also goes to show the rest of the league probably would much prefer Matthews over Marner as well.

 

[PromisedLand]

I was waiting for this reply ...

I'd expect over 40 goals and over 80 points.

Points don't tell the entire story, so I won't base satisfaction based solely on points.

That is partially a wrong way to view things. Marner's primary job on that line is to carry teh puck and make plays.

If JT/Hyman can make plays to set up Marner for goals then your statement would be fair; but that is not the case

 

[Kiwi]

More likely the Athletic has several connections to the Leafs front office which should be pretty clear at this point (though you're likely not a subcriber). One of their main Leafs writers literally used to work for Duba with the .arlies lol

If anybody knows anything from the Leafs side it's definitely him

You can argue that's Leafs management trying to help there position but I wouldn't be shocked if there's some truth to what Mirtle is being feed as biased as that may be

My concern is this has become personal and people have become emotionally invested which doesn't tend to end well

Even though I think we will get hosed we should be exploring trade options, it's time the team started resting some control from Marner's camp because enough is enough

Either sign something acceptable or he's got to go, I'm through being bullied with almost zero pushback

 

[ULF_55]

You trade him as soon as he no longer fits within a Cap system.

Leafs have enough Cap to fit him in today, and if they don't he should be traded.

If he wants a 3 year term, he doesn't get close to double digits.

 

[PromisedLand]

If anybody knows anything from the Leafs side it's definitely him

You can argue that's Leafs management trying to help there position but I wouldn't be shocked if there's some truth to what Mirtle is being feed as biased as that may be

My concern is this has become personal and people have become emotionally invested which doesn't tend to end well

Even though I think we will get hosed we should be exploring trade options, it's time the team started resting some control from Marner's camp because enough is enough

Either sign something acceptable or he's got to go, I'm through being bullied with almost zero pushback

Just out of curiosity there a reason you taking such a stance for Marner when you had a completely different stance for Nylander?
William Nylander Part XIII