Tribute Marner Appreciation Thread

[ULF_55]

Marner in the playoffs the last 3 years.

Looking at the 55 forwards who have played at least 400 5v5 minutes over the last 3 playoffs, here are the top 5 standouts with the best numbers in the most important categories relative their teammates:

REL rankings:

Shot Differential:
1. Tkatchuk
2. Matthews
3. Bennet
4. Verhaeghe
5. Marner

High Danger Chance Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Expected Goal Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Goal Differential:
1. Marner (+23.46%)
2. McDavid
3. MacKinnon
4. Danault
5. Verhaeghe

Nice company ... now we need to know the Cap Cost for each.

And of course actuals are actuals. Expected results don't determine winners.

 

[Notsince67]

Nice company ... now we need to know the Cap Cost for each.

And of course actuals are actuals. Expected results don't determine winners.

Expected is known to have better predictive value. At the end of the day you are correct but from a talent evaluation perspective it is important to know what one can expect in the future.

 

[ULF_55]

Our boys doing well entering their prime.

Nothing wrong with being in the Elite Group, even as a Tier 2 Elite it is great.

Hopefully, some team hardware comes as a result.

 

[ULF_55]

Expected is known to have better predictive value. At the end of the day you are correct but from a talent evaluation perspective it is important to know what one can expect in the future.

Yes, if we're predicting you like those stats, if looking at results expected is meaningless.
Since we can't change the past, we can endorse the predictions, and ignore the past failures.

 

[Zybalto]

Judging PKers with stats such as goals/60 and points/60 is insane and finding this insanity in the same post where you chide someone else for their "surface-level analysis" is hilarious.

Considering I listed QoC, deployment, shot suppression, scoring chance supression, high danger chance supression, takeaways and an in-depth goals against critique all in this post, what are you going on about?

Do you really think the fact Marner is one of the most prolific producers on the PK in the NHL while being a top end penalty killer is not a huge plus?

I mean, do you really think that?

...and, yes, surface level is surface level. I'm not a fan of putting a huge emphasis on GAA or wins/losses to determine the Vezina/Cy Young winners either. Sue me.



(miss me dontcha)

 

[Zybalto]

Nice company ... now we need to know the Cap Cost for each.

And of course actuals are actuals. Expected results don't determine winners.

With actual goals listed last there and Marner dominating the category, I'd say we should be focusing less on what Marner is doing and more on what the rest of the team hasnt done.

When it comes to 5v5 two way play, the stats (both expected and outcomes) say Marner has been one of the league's MVPs over the last 3 seasons.

Maybe the new guys put us over the top.

This team could all of a sudden grab a cup or could be another never made it team like the Sharks.

I'm hoping for the former of course but the goaltending is still scary to me.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You are running into a number of problems with your surface-level analysis here.

I'll address the goals/points after but first of all you are judging PK aptitude on goals against and just leaving it there which is so flawed its hard to take it seriously.

First of all, Marner is a top pairing option on the Leafs which means he faces the best players the other team has to offer. Just to site an example, you do have to admit there is a massive drop off from the 4 forwards Tampa used on their PP1 (Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hagel) to their PP2 (Jeannot, Paul, Sheary, Cirelli). A lot also depends on deployment on the PK. With Marner and Kampf being the top 2 guys the Leafs use on the PK, the go-to guy the last 2 years for the 2nd pairing has been Kerfoot (by far the 3rd most PK minutes of the team) and it's striking to see his deployment compared to Marner:

Offensive Zone starts%:
Marner: 1.01
Kerfoot: 8.43

Offensive Zone Faceoffs%
Marner: 1.83
Kerfoot: 11.67

So not only is Marner facing far more elite talent than Kerfoot, he's being buried in the worst possible situations as well.

It's these reasons as to why you'll see this same level of top PKers actually having more goals scored against them most of the time. I mean, it's more or less expected right? The key is to mitigate the most damage possible against the elite players in the league when they have been handed an advantage.

There is also problem with using goals against in general instead of more reliable defensive metrics like shot and scoring chance suppression to evaluate D as goaltending can be a highly unstable thing to look at, especially on a team that has had wildly inconsistent goaltending the last 2 seasons. I mean, poor goaltending can contribute an insane amount to goals/60 when looking at the league as a whole as guys like Barkov (9.2) the wildy underrated Eriksson Ek (9.16) and LAs two top PK guys (Kopitar(9.67), Danault (8.67)) demonstrate. Those guys are not poor PKers, I assure you.

Filtering the last 2 seasons by 250+ minutes (67 players) will give you a far better sample of the players putting up with the tougher usage (although a few 2nd unit guys get through) and looking at those numbers, you have Marner putting up the 2nd most goals/60, 6th in points/60, 3rd most takeaways/60 all while having defensive underlying numbers placing him at 28th for shot suppression, 7th for scoring chance suppression and 6th for fewest high danger scoring chances allowed/60. These numbers would look even better if so many of the 2nd unit guys hadnt snuck in above him in the data.

He's easily one of the better PK guys in the league but the eye test confirms this as well no? A puck hound who is consistently an offensive threat and has the other teams PP on its toes is what I usually see out there.

Actually, I didn't argue anything at all - all I did was post some other numbers, using the same criteria as the poster I responded to.

Not sure why you focus on Kerfoot when Kampf had the most PK time.

But even limiting it to 250 minutes, Marner scored the most goals and was also on for the most goals against. Considering that Kerfoot and Kampf had many more assists, maybe they were the ones doing the real PK work, and Mitch was just the beneficiary?

 

[Notsince67]

Yes, if we're predicting you like those stats, if looking at results expected is meaningless.
Since we can't change the past, we can endorse the predictions, and ignore the past failures.

Failure is a bad word in stats. Good and Bad is more precise.

 

[Zybalto]

Actually, I didn't argue anything at all - all I did was post some other numbers, using the same criteria as the poster I responded to.

Not sure why you focus on Kerfoot when Kampf had the most PK time.

But even limiting it to 250 minutes, Marner scored the most goals and was also on for the most goals against. Considering that Kerfoot and Kampf had many more assists, maybe they were the ones doing the real PK work, and Mitch was just the beneficiary?

Why would I be talking about Kampf when I was pointing out the difference between a 1st pairing PK forward like Marner with an example of a second pairing one like Kerfoot?

It feels like either I have written my last post poorly or you have misunderstood me....and that I have may have misunderstood your original post even though you have basically doubled down on what I thought in the first place?

Is Barkov the worst PKer on the Panthers?
Is Ek on the Wild?
Are Danault and Kopitar on the Kings?
Is Bergeron only the 4th best option on the Bruins?

Of course not.

....which is why I wrote what I did showing why Marner is so good on the PK as it generally applies to all these guys as well.

Heck, of you want to even use goals, go to differential and realize Marner is in the top ten for those 67 250+ guys with a near 20% goal differential on the PK!....and as a top pairing guy with some of the lowest ozone starts in the league!

I could write a decent critique on Marner but that he's not good on the PK is a tough one.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Considering I listed QoC, deployment, shot suppression, scoring chance supression, high danger chance supression, takeaways and an in-depth goals against critique all in this post, what are you going on about?

Do you really think the fact Marner is one of the most prolific producers on the PK in the NHL while being a top end penalty killer is not a huge plus?

I mean, do you really think that?

...and, yes, surface level is surface level. I'm not a fan of putting a huge emphasis on GAA or wins/losses to determine the Vezina/Cy Young winners either. Sue me.



(miss me dontcha)

I don't know how I could explain it any more clearly than I already did. Maybe try reading what I said again, not sure what else to suggest.

 

[Arzak]

Considering I listed QoC, deployment, shot suppression, scoring chance supression, high danger chance supression, takeaways and an in-depth goals against critique all in this post, what are you going on about?

Do you really think the fact Marner is one of the most prolific producers on the PK in the NHL while being a top end penalty killer is not a huge plus?

I mean, do you really think that?

...and, yes, surface level is surface level. I'm not a fan of putting a huge emphasis on GAA or wins/losses to determine the Vezina/Cy Young winners either. Sue me.



(miss me dontcha)

He is dead last at actually preventing goals on PK. Another false narrative pushed around Mitch Money.

He is top producer on PK, but he can only do it by not defending all that much, hence why he is DEAD LAST on PK.

TOP end penalty killer

 

[thewave]

He is dead last at actually preventing goals on PK. Another false narrative pushed around Mitch Money.

He is top producer on PK, but he can only do it by not defending all that much, hence why he is DEAD LAST on PK.

TOP end penalty killer

When you bring facts to the fight and the cult is left to spin spin spin everything to support the narrative.

Love it. Pile on the facts, each one is a haymaker in its own right.

 

[ACC1224]

Looked great last night, super elite vision on display. Going to be fun to watch him light it up this year.

 

[Notsince67]

Looked great last night, super elite vision on display. Going to be fun to watch him light it up this year.

Had the puck a lot. Definitely a top player.
Good start. Hope he shoots a few times more.

 

[ACC1224]

Had the puck a lot. Definitely a top player.
Good start. Hope he shoots a few times more.

Yeah he could easily score 40 plus if he were a little more selfish. I think he’s always going to be an elite pass first, minimum 100 point, Selke type player.

 

[Zybalto]

When you bring facts to the fight and the cult is left to spin spin spin everything to support the narrative.

Love it. Pile on the facts, each one is a haymaker in its own right.

When those same facts say that many of the best PKing forwards in the league are actually bad, friggin Bergeron is meh on the PK and the prime Datsyuk that won 3 selkies in a row isnt all that great then I dont think the haymakers are hitting in the way you imagine....and that the cult is not on the side you realize. Quality of competition and initial dzone starts are absolutely massive variables here among other things like inconsistent goaltending in such a small sample.


Facts matter...but facts without context can be spun pretty hard for those prone to confirmation bias.

What if I did this:

Goals allowed on the PK/60 the last 2 years and looking at it with 40+ minutes criteria):

Horvat: 11.12
Lundell: 10.4
Kopitar: 9.67
Barkov: 9.2
Eriksson Ek: 9.16
Suzuki: 8.76
Danault: 8.63
Marner: 7.5
Cirelli: 6.85
Bergeron: 5.06

Should I now say Marner is the 3rd best Pker on this list? That seems to be what works with y'all.

Actually, 4 of these guys are dead last on their team for goals allowed on the PK and none of them except Bergron (barely at 4th best out of 9) is above average on their teams.

They are all great penalty killers though. You just have to watch them to see that....and look at all of the stats to see why.

....and why the hell are you guys trolling in an appreciation thread anyways? Havnt you got the "trade Marner" thread to spread this stuff.

 

[ACC1224]

He was in super elite mid-season form last night, looks like he will start the season in high gear.

 

[diceman934]

Love Marner and his vision is so elite. I predict 120 points this year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Love Marner and his vision is so elite. I predict 120 points this year.

I don't care if he gets 60 or 120, I just hope he can change the narrative of getting smaller in the playoffs as the games get bigger. That game 3 against Florida was just putrid and it's gonna take a lot of playoff success to wash away the smell of that one.

 

[thewave]

I don't care if he gets 60 or 120, I just hope he can change the narrative of getting smaller in the playoffs as the games get bigger. That game 3 against Florida was just putrid and it's gonna take a lot of playoff success to wash away the smell of that one.

There are some players that this happens to. A lot of the time they put extra weight on to compensate. The downside to this is that they get slower which doesn't work for Mitch because he is already slow to get going. I know he is the one we should move on from to get cap and a Dman but we wont.

Painful is a rapidly slowing down JT and the prospect of having to overpay Nylander and Marner. Nothing amazing is going on with the young Dmen and our tender situation is just ok.

Most teams have these issues sorted with their stars by this point. We dont

 

[Antropovsky]

I don't care if he gets 60 or 120, I just hope he can change the narrative of getting smaller in the playoffs as the games get bigger. That game 3 against Florida was just putrid and it's gonna take a lot of playoff success to wash away the smell of that one.

Compared to the season, his shot distance was 10' further from the net, his slot shots were by far the worst on the team too.

No question, playoff hockey intimidates him.

On the contrary the other two 11 million players, Tavares and Matthews, season vs playoffs stats stayed similar in terms of areas around the net they played. In fact Tavares and Matthews had stats that they actually improved on in the playoff vs season.

 

[Notsince67]

 

[ACC1224]

https://x.com/jonassiegel/status/1712128564118638861?s=20

What's it say?

 

[Notsince67]

What's it say?

Lots of stuff.
This seems pertinent...
Marner has long been one of the NHL’s better players, better in the regular season anyway than he arguably gets credit for. And yet, it’s at this point in his career, when he’s fully grown and smack in the middle of his prime, playoff disappointments piling up behind him, that the Leafs need him to reach another level still.
Whether he gets there or not may just determine whether the Leafs finally make a serious challenge for the Stanley Cup — or fall short yet again.

 

[Gabriel426]

Lots of stuff.
This seems pertinent...
Marner has long been one of the NHL’s better players, better in the regular season anyway than he arguably gets credit for. And yet, it’s at this point in his career, when he’s fully grown and smack in the middle of his prime, playoff disappointments piling up behind him, that the Leafs need him to reach another level still.
Whether he gets there or not may just determine whether the Leafs finally make a serious challenge for the Stanley Cup — or fall short yet again.

That’s pretty much what everyone have been saying except for a few.
There is no denying MM is an amazing player but the gap between his regular season and playoffs are huge.
If he can elevate his playoffs games to his regular season level, Leafs should advance.