Tribute Marner Appreciation Thread

[Sypher04]

I would want to see MM play less on the PK and more on even strength.
I know he is great at PK but just want to see him focus on even strength more esp right after the PK to catch opposing team having tired players on the ice.

While I agree, I’m not sure we have enough penalty killers anymore to make that change

 

[ACC1224]

I would want to see MM play less on the PK and more on even strength.
I know he is great at PK but just want to see him focus on even strength more esp right after the PK to catch opposing team having tired players on the ice.

I think we all would like to see this. Tough one though with him being such a crazy elite PKer.

 

[Zybalto]

Marner on the PK the last 2 seasons:

Goals: tied for 1st in the NHL
Points: tied for 4th in the NHL

All defensive numbers well above average.

Don't think he's going to be dropped off the PK.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner on the PK the last 2 seasons:

Goals: tied for 1st in the NHL
Points: tied for 4th in the NHL

All defensive numbers well above average.

Don't think he's going to be dropped off the PK.

It really is amazing how underrated he is by some.

 

[Notsince67]

So does your average 17 year old

Next to Rielly, most men who aren't fat would look small.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'll make it simple to the math challenged.
Marner is about 15 inches past verticle from the picture. Basic pythagorean theorum will yield a verticle adjustment of about 1.56 inches. Add the slouch and any shoe sole adjustment and there is no conspiracy...just poor value for a paid education.

Lol....all that and you coincidentally left out the height of Marners hat...let me guess Marner has a very long forehead and triangular shaped skull? Haha your bias is laughable and sad at the same time.

 

[Gabriel426]

While I agree, I’m not sure we have enough penalty killers anymore to make that change

I think we all would like to see this. Tough one though with him being such a crazy elite PKer.

That’s the thing though, there is just not a lot of options for Keefe to put on the PK. Lafferty, Kampf, Calle and MM. Maybr Holmberg if he wins the 12th spot. Reaves is not going to be on the PK and same with AM, JT, Knies and Bert. Maybe Keefe will try Willie and Domi but I doubt it.

 

[Voodoo Child]

Marner on the PK the last 2 seasons:

Goals: tied for 1st in the NHL
Points: tied for 4th in the NHL

All defensive numbers well above average.

Don't think he's going to be dropped off the PK.

Mitch is fantastic, nobody denies that, but…

1. He isn’t Auston and his shrimp dick of a father should have had bricks launched at him for even mentioning him in the same sentence.

And 2. How about some points in games 4-7 here? Padding it up with points in the first three games is fine, when you win all three, but that’s not happened yet.

I’d have sent him out after the CBJ play ‘in’ but that’s just me. He’d win a Cup elsewhere, because they all do.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner on the PK the last 2 seasons:

Goals: tied for 1st in the NHL
Points: tied for 4th in the NHL

All defensive numbers well above average.

Don't think he's going to be dropped off the PK.

If you look at it per 60 (minimum 40 minutes PK forwards only), he's 25th in goals and 38th in points.

His 7.53 goals allowed per 60 puts him at 141st of 286. (Kase is actually first, and Nylander is third behind Wheeler.)

Leafs forwards with 40+ minutes PK time, goals allowed per 60:

Kase 1.90
Nylander 2.76
Acciari 4.44
Aston-Reese 4.63
Jarnkrok 5.62
Mikheyev 5.67
Kerfoot 6.34
Kampf 7.14
Engvall 7.38
Marner 7.53

 

[Notsince67]

That’s the thing though, there is just not a lot of options for Keefe to put on the PK. Lafferty, Kampf, Calle and MM. Maybr Holmberg if he wins the 12th spot. Reaves is not going to be on the PK and same with AM, JT, Knies and Bert. Maybe Keefe will try Willie and Domi but I doubt it.

Matthews is going to try playing pk

 

[Antropovsky]

If you look at it per 60 (minimum 40 minutes PK forwards only), he's 25th in goals and 38th in points.

His 7.53 goals allowed per 60 puts him at 141st of 286. (Kase is actually first, and Nylander is third behind Wheeler.)

Leafs forwards with 40+ minutes PK time, goals allowed per 60:

Kase 1.90
Nylander 2.76
Acciari 4.44
Aston-Reese 4.63
Jarnkrok 5.62
Mikheyev 5.67
Kerfoot 6.34
Kampf 7.14
Engvall 7.38
Marner 7.53

So is he good or bad on PK?

 

[Gary Nylund]

So is he good or bad on PK?

Looks like people decide whether they want him to be good or bad, then they choose the stats that seem to support their POV and yell at everyone who disagrees.

 

[Arzak]

If you look at it per 60 (minimum 40 minutes PK forwards only), he's 25th in goals and 38th in points.

His 7.53 goals allowed per 60 puts him at 141st of 286. (Kase is actually first, and Nylander is third behind Wheeler.)

Leafs forwards with 40+ minutes PK time, goals allowed per 60:

Kase 1.90
Nylander 2.76
Acciari 4.44
Aston-Reese 4.63
Jarnkrok 5.62
Mikheyev 5.67
Kerfoot 6.34
Kampf 7.14
Engvall 7.38
Marner 7.53

Elite PK means scoring the most, on PK, while being dead last at preventing goals.
This explains why we have the best PK elite unicorn forward while having an average PK.

I can see how this demands a raise. $13M x 8 years pls

 

[thewave]

Looks like people decide whether they want him to be good or bad, then they choose the stats that seem to support their POV and yell at everyone who disagrees.

Pretty much.

Nylander is a really good player until someone goes to hit and he drops like he got shot by their eyes before impact.

Marner is factually a product of hype. Good player, amazingly clever passes when time and space is given. Top notch entertainment value.

 

[Yall are crazy]

He was not. I've provided a lot of comparisons, including one that you just responded to, but the problem with saying show me a direct comparable with a similar pre-signing period and X contract with X term is that that doesn't really exist, especially recently among wingers. Not because Marner is overpaid, but because Marner as a player is quite unique even within the rare group of high-end young forwards in the cap era, and both Marner's pre-signing period and contract fall in a bit of a dead zone - not quite at the top top tier of a handful of generational players, but pretty easily a clear step above pretty much everybody else, with Rantanen being the only winger even remotely close to come along in a decade.

The closest contracts to Marner are Vanek and Heatley, but I assume you don't want me doing that comparison, because it would just make Marner look good, and I'm sure you'll argue that Vanek was an offer sheet and Heatley was so long ago. We could look at Kovalchuk and Nash, who got bigger contracts than Marner too, but same thing, right? Just makes Marner look good. So we step down a tier and look at the likes of Rantanen/Kane, which I've shown a number of times, but people refuse to accept the clear and obvious gap that existed between them and Marner that's consistent with their contracts, because they don't think Marner's lead in P/GP over their ELCs is enough, and they refuse to acknowledge the impacts of PP time (which those players got pumped full of) on that raw production, that's inflating the perception of their relative quality.

So I'm open to looking at whatever comparisons you want, but it's got to come with an acceptance that raw points don't always tell the full story of offensive impact, and like anybody else in his position, Marner was never going to and should not be expected to not get compensated appropriately relative to his offensive impact just because he came up in an era of low special teams time, on a team that got abnormally low special teams time, under a coach that intentionally tried to neuter his production as he mentally abused him.

Literally what everyone says about him. He has no true comparable as he's very unique

 

[Notsince67]

Literally what everyone says about him. He has no true comparable as he's very unique

Kid is headed to the hall of fame. By next year, he will hit #5 in all time leaf career points and likely top 5 in assists this year. Amazing for a 26 year old.

 

[Arzak]

Kid is headed to the hall of fame. By next year, he will hit #5 in all time leaf career points and likely top 5 in assists this year. Amazing for a 26 year old.

Yeah, the hall is full of players who can showcase peak like 11th in the league in points or Selke nomination.

It's amazing you can already praise him for next year's numbers, hell in your fantasy he might still be 26 by then.

Thank you for your daily contract lobbying post. A shocker on Monday!

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Mitch is fantastic, nobody denies that, but…

1. He isn’t Auston and his shrimp dick of a father should have had bricks launched at him for even mentioning him in the same sentence.

And 2. How about some points in games 4-7 here? Padding it up with points in the first three games is fine, when you win all three, but that’s not happened yet.

I’d have sent him out after the CBJ play ‘in’ but that’s just me. He’d win a Cup elsewhere, because they all do.

This is the problem with Mitch, he doesn't have the extra gear when it really matters. I'm not talking about the extra gear he showed in the last game of the season when he was trying to get point #100, he really displayed the heart then.

I'm talking about playoffs, deciding games, when things get physical...he simply has not shown up.

 

[Nineteen67]

Marner’s ability to knock down a puck in mid air and turn it into a scoring chance is tops in the world. He’s a crazy skater, too.
I thought he was going to be the best player in the Tampa series, but it didn’t translate as I expected.

Literally what everyone says about him. He has no true comparable as he's very unique

 

[Zybalto]

If you look at it per 60 (minimum 40 minutes PK forwards only), he's 25th in goals and 38th in points.

His 7.53 goals allowed per 60 puts him at 141st of 286. (Kase is actually first, and Nylander is third behind Wheeler.)

Leafs forwards with 40+ minutes PK time, goals allowed per 60:

Kase 1.90
Nylander 2.76
Acciari 4.44
Aston-Reese 4.63
Jarnkrok 5.62
Mikheyev 5.67
Kerfoot 6.34
Kampf 7.14
Engvall 7.38
Marner 7.53

You are running into a number of problems with your surface-level analysis here.

I'll address the goals/points after but first of all you are judging PK aptitude on goals against and just leaving it there which is so flawed its hard to take it seriously.

First of all, Marner is a top pairing option on the Leafs which means he faces the best players the other team has to offer. Just to site an example, you do have to admit there is a massive drop off from the 4 forwards Tampa used on their PP1 (Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hagel) to their PP2 (Jeannot, Paul, Sheary, Cirelli). A lot also depends on deployment on the PK. With Marner and Kampf being the top 2 guys the Leafs use on the PK, the go-to guy the last 2 years for the 2nd pairing has been Kerfoot (by far the 3rd most PK minutes of the team) and it's striking to see his deployment compared to Marner:

Offensive Zone starts%:
Marner: 1.01
Kerfoot: 8.43

Offensive Zone Faceoffs%
Marner: 1.83
Kerfoot: 11.67

So not only is Marner facing far more elite talent than Kerfoot, he's being buried in the worst possible situations as well.

It's these reasons as to why you'll see this same level of top PKers actually having more goals scored against them most of the time. I mean, it's more or less expected right? The key is to mitigate the most damage possible against the elite players in the league when they have been handed an advantage.

There is also problem with using goals against in general instead of more reliable defensive metrics like shot and scoring chance suppression to evaluate D as goaltending can be a highly unstable thing to look at, especially on a team that has had wildly inconsistent goaltending the last 2 seasons. I mean, poor goaltending can contribute an insane amount to goals/60 when looking at the league as a whole as guys like Barkov (9.2) the wildy underrated Eriksson Ek (9.16) and LAs two top PK guys (Kopitar(9.67), Danault (8.67)) demonstrate. Those guys are not poor PKers, I assure you.

Filtering the last 2 seasons by 250+ minutes (67 players) will give you a far better sample of the players putting up with the tougher usage (although a few 2nd unit guys get through) and looking at those numbers, you have Marner putting up the 2nd most goals/60, 6th in points/60, 3rd most takeaways/60 all while having defensive underlying numbers placing him at 28th for shot suppression, 7th for scoring chance suppression and 6th for fewest high danger scoring chances allowed/60. These numbers would look even better if so many of the 2nd unit guys hadnt snuck in above him in the data.

He's easily one of the better PK guys in the league but the eye test confirms this as well no? A puck hound who is consistently an offensive threat and has the other teams PP on its toes is what I usually see out there.

 

[Zybalto]

This is the problem with Mitch, he doesn't have the extra gear when it really matters. I'm not talking about the extra gear he showed in the last game of the season when he was trying to get point #100, he really displayed the heart then.

I'm talking about playoffs, deciding games, when things get physical...he simply has not shown up.

Marner in the playoffs the last 3 years.

Looking at the 55 forwards who have played at least 400 5v5 minutes over the last 3 playoffs, here are the top 5 standouts with the best numbers in the most important categories relative their teammates:

REL rankings:

Shot Differential:
1. Tkatchuk
2. Matthews
3. Bennet
4. Verhaeghe
5. Marner

High Danger Chance Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Expected Goal Differential:
1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Tkatchuk
4. McDavid
5. Verhaeghe

Goal Differential:
1. Marner (+23.46%)
2. McDavid
3. MacKinnon
4. Danault
5. Verhaeghe

 

[ULF_55]

Kid is headed to the hall of fame. By next year, he will hit #5 in all time leaf career points and likely top 5 in assists this year. Amazing for a 26 year old.

Interesting to play around with:

NHL era adjusted stats

This analysis uses Hockey Reference's adjusted Statistics, which allows us to more fairly compare players from different scoring eras. We're also going to limit our analysis to post WW2 (actually I included Maurice Richard too, who started in 1943). Why exclude season's prior to 1945? Because...

observablehq.com

 

[Gary Nylund]

You are running into a number of problems with your surface-level analysis here.

I'll address the goals/points after but first of all you are judging PK aptitude on goals against and just leaving it there which is so flawed its hard to take it seriously.
...
Fltering the last 2 seasons by 250+ minutes (67 players) will give you a far better sample of the players putting up with the tougher usage (although a few 2nd unit guys get through) and looking at those numbers, you have Marner putting up the 2nd most goals/60, 6th in points/60 ...

Judging PKers with stats such as goals/60 and points/60 is insane and finding this insanity in the same post where you chide someone else for their "surface-level analysis" is hilarious.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Interesting to play around with:

NHL era adjusted stats

This analysis uses Hockey Reference's adjusted Statistics, which allows us to more fairly compare players from different scoring eras. We're also going to limit our analysis to post WW2 (actually I included Maurice Richard too, who started in 1943). Why exclude season's prior to 1945? Because...

observablehq.com

View attachment 748199

Strange comment about McDavid entering his prime - he's been in his prime for some time now.

For a Dman to be as high as Orr is, is simply mind boggling. 99/66 were both great players but Orr is still the GOAT, wonder what he could have been with two good knees. Mind boggling!!

 

[Notsince67]

Interesting to play around with:

NHL era adjusted stats

This analysis uses Hockey Reference's adjusted Statistics, which allows us to more fairly compare players from different scoring eras. We're also going to limit our analysis to post WW2 (actually I included Maurice Richard too, who started in 1943). Why exclude season's prior to 1945? Because...

observablehq.com

View attachment 748199

Our boys doing well entering their prime.