Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

It was better last year too, once he started putting up points and got away from Poirier.

Hopefully he is a huge boost to that Marlies RD next year. We can afford to take it slow with him, but he should be in the Marlies rotation on Day 1 and it would help if he fixes our RD problem.

So you're saying he'll start on LW on the 3rd line in Greg Moore's system?

 

[hockeynorth]

So where would Villeneuve rank within our prospect pool? What's his realistic projection? I figured he was below Kral before the year.

 

[WTFMAN99]

So where would Villeneuve rank within our prospect pool? What's his realistic projection? I figured he was below Kral before the year.

Still think Kral is ahead just based on Kral maybe being ready for 3rd pairing duties as soon as next season although likely to get another year of seasoning in the AHL.

 

[nuck]

Still think Kral is ahead just based on Kral maybe being ready for 3rd pairing duties as soon as next season although likely to get another year of seasoning in the AHL.

Yeah well below Kral IMO. The AHL separates the wheat from the chaff and most excellent Juniors never become become solid pros unless they can keep improving after graduation. You gotta like him as a 122 pick though and they don't need him any time soon.. If they resign Bush and Gio there is no room on either side next season without trades. The window for new D is 24-25 when Muzz and Brodie are done and they need some cheap contracts.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah well below Kral IMO. The AHL separates the wheat from the chaff and most excellent Juniors never become become solid pros unless they can keep improving after graduation. You gotta like him as a 122 pick though and they don't need him any time soon.. If they resign Bush and Gio there is no room on either side next season without trades. The window for new D is 24-25 when Muzz and Brodie are done and they need some cheap contracts.

Villeneuve is on par with Kral at the same age, if not ahead of him.

 

[nuck]

Villeneuve is on par with Kral at the same age, if not ahead of him.

I guess if I expected the progression from Junior to pro to be linear I would give the last Junior season more weight but to me, any player breaking out at 19 might just mean they figured out how to dominate 17 years olds, Kral is 23 but has only 68 pro games and has shown growth every season since entering the WHL so I feel he hasn't plateaued yet. I don't think he is a great prospect but I am kind of looking at next year for him to be where he hits his level. Not to say Villeneuve can't leapfrog him before the end of next season but its still just Junior success until WV shows up against men..

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I guess if I expected the progression from Junior to pro to be linear I would give the last Junior season more weight but to me, any player breaking out at 19 might just mean they figured out how to dominate 17 years olds, Kral is 23 but has only 68 pro games and has shown growth every season since entering the WHL so I feel he hasn't plateaued yet. I don't think he is a great prospect but I am kind of looking at next year for him to be where he hits his level. Not to say Villeneuve can't leapfrog him before the end of next season but its still just Junior success until WV shows up against men..

We don't know what Villeneuve's progression will be like in the pros because he hasn't played there yet. Maybe he totally flops or maybe he progresses well. Kral, for the most part, has been in the middle; he is not exactly exceeding expectations but not failing to meet them either. His junior career was similar.

Villeneuve, right now, is meeting expectations himself. He is not an elite-level prospect, but he brings a very strong two-way game (better than most of his peers) that can play up well in the pros. If you want to give the edge to Kral because he is ahead in his development and has a little bit less uncertainty, then nobody would blame you. I have Kral just ahead of Villeneuve myself for that reason (I think I have them 13th and 14th in our pool respectively), but in general, they have similar upside, styles, weaknesses, and career trajectories (with Villeneuve being a RD; Kral being a LD).

 

[supermann_98]

For those of you who don’t know
Leafs draft pick William villienuve who plays for
Saint John sea dogs has finished the season with the number one plus minus in the Quebec major junior hockey league with a plus60.
Well done William

This is nice to hear considering when he was drafted his player profile said he was an all-offense, no-defense kinda defenseman

 

[kerk]

pretty good, though from his small write up (see here) liljegren and sandin are both included in the ranking

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

pretty good, though from his small write up (see here) liljegren and sandin are both included in the ranking

The Oilers having the number 1 ranked goalie system is a complete joke.

 

[The Iceman]

Villeneuve is on par with Kral at the same age, if not ahead of him.

Thoughts on Chad Krys?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Thoughts on Chad Krys?

Vanilla as Vanilla gets.

He was a solid addition as a "4th pairing" guy. Was a steady defensive presence for the role he had and that was much needed with how brutal some of the other guys were (Kivihalme), but if we are aiming towards an ideal AHL roster next year, he doesn't fit. He is not really a prospect anymore and doesn't have a ton of upside, and he doesn't really bring enough to be considered a veteran either. He is AHL contract quality, but I thought he was better than Hoefenmayer, Hellickson, and the other guys we had on AHL deals on the back end.

Rubins is somewhat similar, but I think Rubins has higher highs to justify keeping him as a 3rd or 4th pairing guy with Hollowell/Villeneuve, even if Rubins doesn't have much NHL upside himself. If we are really building an ideal lineup, you probably don't have either of Rubins or Krys, and instead you have a guy like Kokkonen and a better veteran to pair with Dahlstrom and Kral on the left side. Although I can live with Rubins as one of the 3rd or 4th pairing guys for one more year as long as the other one is at least as good as he is. He just needs to be used properly.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

On a positive note, the Growlers are on the verge of pulling a reverse Leafs. They were down 3-1 in their series against Reading and fought back to tie the series 3-3 with a 5-1 and 4-2 victory.

Petruzzelli hasn't been good in the ECHL playoffs but he came up big in those two games.

 

[keonsbitterness]

On a positive note, the Growlers are on the verge of pulling a reverse Leafs. They were down 3-1 in their series against Reading and fought back to tie the series 3-3 with a 5-1 and 4-2 victory.

Petruzzelli hasn't been good in the ECHL playoffs but he came up big in those two games.

Staying healthy would be a big victory for a Leafs goalie prospect.

 

[Future]

Pressure has to be on for some of our prospects to make an impact next year and win roster spots.

Looking at Steeves, Holmberg, and Robertson in particular.

Also, I’m kind of getting tired of drafting these 160lb kids who take half a decade to develop. To me, it’s only worth the wait if you think they can be top line impact players.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Pressure has to be on for some of our prospects to make an impact next year and win roster spots.

Looking at Steeves, Holmberg, and Robertson in particular.

Also, I’m kind of getting tired of drafting these 160lb kids who take half a decade to develop. To me, it’s only worth the wait if you think they can be top line impact players.

You're expecting a lot to consistently find top line players outside the top 1-2 rounds.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Pressure has to be on for some of our prospects to make an impact next year and win roster spots.

Looking at Steeves, Holmberg, and Robertson in particular.

Also, I’m kind of getting tired of drafting these 160lb kids who take half a decade to develop.

You draft the guys who can turn into NHLers, and preferably key NHLers. Should we continue drafting Korshkov's over DeBrincat's? Should we ignore guys like Anthony Cirelli because he was a 160lbs kid?

Sure, the Leafs probably should not be chasing after one-dimensional guys like Bracco. Dubas has also not drafted guys with Bracco's profile (at least not with high draft picks). Smaller guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, Amirov, etc. have two-way profiles. Niemela was actually lauded for his defensive game more than his offensive game when he was drafted, and now he is one of the most productive young defensemen in Liiga history without compromising on his defensive game.

Pontus Holmberg, Alex Steeves, Joey Anderson, Ty Voit, Mikhail Abramov, etc. are all guys who have the potential to factor in on both special teams, get in hard on the forecheck, and can put up offense while also being very reliable defensive players. The types of guys you want in your bottom 6, even if they aren't big players.

 

[Future]

You're expecting a lot to consistently find top line players outside the top 1-2 rounds.

Never said that. I just meant that if you’re going to consistently draft undersized players that will take 5 years to develop, you better be confident in them as future impact players that’ll play in key roles. In short, they better be worth the wait.

It just seems like we have a lot of guys approaching their mid 20s that have yet to make any sort of push for an NHL roster spot in the top 6 or bottom 6 after all this time.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You're expecting a lot to consistently find top line players outside the top 1-2 rounds.

Or ones who take less than half a decade to develop. I know Leafs fans have been spoiled with development paths like Robertson, Sandin, Knies, etc. on a consistent basis, but if you look around the NHL, it doesn't really happen for a lot of teams.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Never said that. I just meant that if you’re going to consistently draft undersized players that will take 5 years to develop, you better be confident in them as future impact players that’ll play in key roles. In short, they better be worth the wait.

It just seems like we have a lot of guys approaching their mid 20s that have yet to make any sort of push for an NHL roster spot in the top 6 or bottom 6 after all this time.

You're drafting 18 year-olds. All but a select few take multiple years to develop.

Even legends can take time. Darryl Sittler, when it was a 20 year-old draft, did not hit top-line status until his 3rd year. Guy Lafeur was considered a bust until his 4th.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Never said that. I just meant that if you’re going to consistently draft undersized players that will take 5 years to develop, you better be confident in them as future impact players that’ll play in key roles. In short, they better be worth the wait.

It just seems like we have a lot of guys approaching their mid 20s that have yet to make any sort of push for an NHL roster spot in the top 6 or bottom 6 after all this time.

Dubas took over the draft board in 2018, and even then he only had a few weeks to toss it together.

In that draft, he picked Sandin (in the NHL full time), Durzi (in the NHL full time), Holmberg (could be in the NHL full time next year), and Kral (a 6'2", 200lbs defenseman who needs another year but could challenge for a bottom pairing job the year after). SDA and Hollowell are 'meh' but we will see with SDA especially, and Stotts/Kizimov/Bouthillier are busts/likely busts.

The next year, we have Robertson who has been knocking on the NHL for years and could end up as a full time NHLer this year. Abruzzese is also knocking on the door. Abramov, Koster, and Kokkonen have progressed well. Kokkonen may only be a year away himself. That was 3 years ago.

Amirov was unfortunate. We couldn't predict that, but we have Hirvonen and Niemela who look a year or two away. Villeneuve, Miettinen, Tverberg are all progressing extremely well. We'll see about the rest.

And then last year, we have Matthew Knies who was a realistic consideration for a top 6 NHL job as a D+1 despite being a late 2nd round pick. And as a bonus, we added a two-way forward in the 5th round who was a top 20 OHL scorer despite having 20+ more points than the next best guy on his team and was 6th in OHL U19 scoring.

That doesn't include the UFA's he developed either. Trevor Moore, Justin Holl, Mason Marchment, Alex Steeves. I won't count Curtis Douglas because Dubas is no longer in charge of the Marlies.

Just out of the guys he has drafted in the last 4 years, we are talking about 2 full time NHLers with top 4 upside, another 3 who are going to be competing for full time jobs this September (and a 4th who would have competed if he didn't want to go back to the NCAA for another year), and then another 5 or 6 who could realistically compete for an NHL job in the next year or two? And he did that with only 2 top round picks (one of which is suffering from a brain tumor right now). Short of a team like Detroit who has numerous top picks every year due to being in a rebuild, where exactly is the grass greener right now when it comes to drafting and developing young talent?

Just look at the Leafs between 2015-2017. It has been more than half a decade and what do we have to show for it? Marner/Matthews obviously. But beyond them? Liljegren is really it. Grundstrom was solid too. Dermott was traded for less than his pick. Woll might still turn into something, and Scott was screwed by injuries. Brooks and Middleton are decent AAAA options. The rest are complete busts who are not even close to NHLers right now, and there were some high 2nd and 3rd round picks in there.

 

[Future]

Dubas took over the draft board in 2018, and even then he only had a few weeks to toss it together.

In that draft, he picked Sandin (in the NHL full time), Durzi (in the NHL full time), Holmberg (could be in the NHL full time next year), and Kral (a 6'2", 200lbs defenseman who needs another year but could challenge for a bottom pairing job the year after). SDA and Hollowell are 'meh' but we will see with SDA especially, and Stotts/Kizimov/Bouthillier are busts/likely busts.

The next year, we have Robertson who has been knocking on the NHL for years and could end up as a full time NHLer this year. Abruzzese is also knocking on the door. Abramov, Koster, and Kokkonen have progressed well. Kokkonen may only be a year away himself. That was 3 years ago.

Amirov was unfortunate. We couldn't predict that, but we have Hirvonen and Niemela who look a year or two away. Villeneuve, Miettinen, Tverberg are all progressing extremely well. We'll see about the rest.

And then last year, we have Matthew Knies who was a realistic consideration for a top 6 NHL job as a D+1 despite being a late 2nd round pick. And as a bonus, we added a two-way forward in the 5th round who was a top 20 OHL scorer despite having 20+ more points than the next best guy on his team and was 6th in OHL U19 scoring.

That doesn't include the UFA's he developed either. Trevor Moore, Justin Holl, Mason Marchment, Alex Steeves. I won't count Curtis Douglas because Dubas is no longer in charge of the Marlies.

Just out of the guys he has drafted in the last 4 years, we are talking about 2 full time NHLers with top 4 upside, another 3 who are going to be competing for full time jobs this September (and a 4th who would have competed if he didn't want to go back to the NCAA for another year), and then another 5 or 6 who could realistically compete for an NHL job in the next year or two? And he did that with only 2 top round picks (one of which is suffering from a brain tumor right now). Short of a team like Detroit who has numerous top picks every year due to being in a rebuild, where exactly is the grass greener right now when it comes to drafting and developing young talent?

Just look at the Leafs between 2015-2017. It has been more than half a decade and what do we have to show for it? Marner/Matthews obviously. But beyond them? Liljegren is really it. Grundstrom was solid too. Dermott was traded for less than his pick. Woll might still turn into something, and Scott was screwed by injuries. Brooks and Middleton are decent AAAA options. The rest are complete busts who are not even close to NHLers right now, and there were some high 2nd and 3rd round picks in there.

I agree with and understand all of this. But at some point here our prospects need to take that next step and make an impact in the NHL. Haven’t seen that from our system since, what? Matthews? Engvall?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I agree with and understand all of this. But at some point here our prospects need to take that next step and make an impact in the NHL. Haven’t seen that from our system since, what? Matthews? Engvall?

We will start seeing that from Dubas' drafts likely starting this upcoming year. Don't blame Hunter's ineptitude on Dubas. The guys you are expecting right now are guys we would have drafted in 2015-2017. We got literally nothing out of 2017 outside of Liljegren. Nothing to show for 2015 outside of Marner with Dermott gone now. We had a crap ton of picks in 2016 and what is there to show for it? Grundstrom I guess. Maybe Woll at some point. Most of the guys from those drafts didn't even get to the point where they were good enough to develop in our system, which just tells you how bad the drafting was.

 

[Future]

We will start seeing that from Dubas' drafts likely starting this upcoming year. Don't blame Hunter's ineptitude on Dubas. The guys you are expecting right now are guys we would have drafted in 2015-2017. We got literally nothing out of 2017 outside of Liljegren. Nothing to show for 2015 outside of Marner with Dermott gone now. We had a crap ton of picks in 2016 and what is there to show for it? Grundstrom I guess. Maybe Woll at some point. Most of the guys from those drafts didn't even get to the point where they were good enough to develop in our system, which just tells you how bad the drafting was.

I’m not, believe me

Hunter’s drafts were among the worst I’ve ever seen outside of the top 5 picks.

I’m a big fan of Dubas’ body of work thus far. I just need to see some results at this point heading into next year which will be year 5 for him. We will be banking on some of these guys making that jump and having a significant impact considering our cap situation and departing vets.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I’m not, believe me

Hunter’s drafts were among the worst I’ve ever seen outside of the top 5 picks.

I’m a big fan of Dubas’ body of work thus far. I just need to see some results at this point heading into next year which will be year 5 for him. We will be banking on some of these guys making that jump and having a significant impact considering our cap situation and departing vets.

We almost certainly will. I find it hard to believe we won't see two of Anderson (who we didn't technically draft or even fully develop, but oh well), Steeves, Holmberg, Abruzzese, etc. on the 4th line next year. Or it will be Simmonds and one of those guys, and then Simmonds could lose his job to a younger guy by the middle of the year.