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Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

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Fogelhund said:
Don't look now, but my man, the 6'8" 249lb C down on the Marlies, has 2 goals and 2 assists in the last five games. It's a five game sample, and it's taken him some time to find his feet at the AHL level.. but if he can be anywhere near 0.75 to PPG at that size in the AHL, I think we've got ourselves a useful bottom 6 C in a few years. Who couldn't use a huge physical C, that isn't a complete black hole? Work on that skating more, defense... Curtis Douglas boys and girls.
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Joel Otto 2.0
 
stickty111 said:
He isn't further along because of one thing, and thats his coach. That's not his fault. Good KHl pre season and performed well when he got actual 4th line minutes, and still gets benched. Leafs development shouldn't be happy with how he's being handled.
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Sibir has played 30+ games and only has 3 guys with double digits points (and two of those 3 guys have exactly 10 points). They are the third worst offensive team in the KHL and have practically no competition for an offensive guy like Ovchinnikov to make that roster in a higher role. Plus Ovchinnikov is super cheap, which is even more of an incentive for a poor team to play him.

If he can't crack their top 6 as a guy who plays offense, then it is a perfect opportunity for him to diversify his game and crack their bottom 6, which is even more shallow for them. Pull a Kase or a Kerfoot. At this point, that is probably his only chance of making the NHL anyways. He is almost certainly not making it in a top 6 offensive role, since he was already numerous steps behind most guys who do even before we add this disappointment to the list.

It's two coaches now who don't see a lot in him, and a resume which is generally unimpressive. The only thing on his side right now is that he is still only 19 years old, so he is more likely to have a miraculous, Mikheyev-like leap now than if he was 23 years old. But that clock is ticking fast.
 
SeaOfBlue said:
Sibir has played 30+ games and only has 3 guys with double digits points (and two of those 3 guys have exactly 10 points). They are the third worst offensive team in the KHL and have practically no competition for an offensive guy like Ovchinnikov to make that roster in a higher role. Plus Ovchinnikov is super cheap, which is even more of an incentive for a poor team to play him.

If he can't crack their top 6 as a guy who plays offense, then it is a perfect opportunity for him to diversify his game and crack their bottom 6, which is even more shallow for them. Pull a Kase or a Kerfoot. At this point, that is probably his only chance of making the NHL anyways. He is almost certainly not making it in a top 6 offensive role, since he was already numerous steps behind most guys who do even before we add this disappointment to the list.

It's two coaches now who don't see a lot in him, and a resume which is generally unimpressive. The only thing on his side right now is that he is still only 19 years old, so he is more likely to have a miraculous, Mikheyev-like leap now than if he was 23 years old. But that clock is ticking fast.
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Mr. Doom and Gloom here. I think he's doing fine playing for a super stubborn team. If you look at the roster of Sibir Novosibirsk, you'll notice that out of the 9 rostered players under the age of 24, only 3 have managed to consistently crack playing time in recent memory. 2 of those are defensemen who made it in their age 19 season and 1 is a forward who made it at age 21. None of those guys come remotely close in production in their MHL careers or even in the time they spent in the VHL. I think the general lack of talent and player development on this team speaks for itself. I don't think you can look at 2 coaches from a failed organization who cannot develop young players to save their lives and say that it's the player who is at fault or lacking just because their coaching staff is so inept. This organization hasn't produced and kept any great-to-elite players in their past 10-12 seasons and that to me is a glaring example of how terrible the org is. If you look at any of the good players they've developed over the years, they've turned right around and lost them to the big boys CSKA, SKA, Spartak. I can almost guarantee you, if you give it enough time with the talent Ovchinnikov has, he's going to be on one of those teams before too long.

KHL and Russian leagues are very much a crapshoot when it comes to development because unlike the CHL/NHL where players get drafted based on their abilities and potential and their performance, many times players are drafted because they've been developed with the local teams as local players who have been with the franchise since they were 13/14 years old. It's not Dmitri's fault that he ended up in the Sibir system when he was 13 years old.

I think the best move for him is to bring him over to the Marlies next year along with Amirov who also isn't getting a ton of playing time even when healthy. Let the Russian kids grow up together (Amirov, Ovch, SDA, Abramov, Gogolev). I think we definitely have NHL talent to some extent in all of these guys.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
Sibir has played 30+ games and only has 3 guys with double digits points (and two of those 3 guys have exactly 10 points). They are the third worst offensive team in the KHL and have practically no competition for an offensive guy like Ovchinnikov to make that roster in a higher role. Plus Ovchinnikov is super cheap, which is even more of an incentive for a poor team to play him.

If he can't crack their top 6 as a guy who plays offense, then it is a perfect opportunity for him to diversify his game and crack their bottom 6, which is even more shallow for them. Pull a Kase or a Kerfoot. At this point, that is probably his only chance of making the NHL anyways. He is almost certainly not making it in a top 6 offensive role, since he was already numerous steps behind most guys who do even before we add this disappointment to the list.

It's two coaches now who don't see a lot in him, and a resume which is generally unimpressive. The only thing on his side right now is that he is still only 19 years old, so he is more likely to have a miraculous, Mikheyev-like leap now than if he was 23 years old. But that clock is ticking fast.
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Aside from this post pretty much saying you don't like the guy, another thing it says is his performance clearly doesn't matter to the coaches. This seems like an organization problem and not a Ovichinikov problem.
@nobody pretty much just showed the organization is garbage.
 
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nobody said:
Mr. Doom and Gloom here. I think he's doing fine playing for a super stubborn team. If you look at the roster of Sibir Novosibirsk, you'll notice that out of the 9 rostered players under the age of 24, only 3 have managed to consistently crack playing time in recent memory. 2 of those are defensemen who made it in their age 19 season and 1 is a forward who made it at age 21. None of those guys come remotely close in production in their MHL careers or even in the time they spent in the VHL. I think the general lack of talent and player development on this team speaks for itself. I don't think you can look at 2 coaches from a failed organization who cannot develop young players to save their lives and say that it's the player who is at fault or lacking just because their coaching staff is so inept. This organization hasn't produced and kept any great-to-elite players in their past 10-12 seasons and that to me is a glaring example of how terrible the org is. If you look at any of the good players they've developed over the years, they've turned right around and lost them to the big boys CSKA, SKA, Spartak. I can almost guarantee you, if you give it enough time with the talent Ovchinnikov has, he's going to be on one of those teams before too long.

KHL and Russian leagues are very much a crapshoot when it comes to development because unlike the CHL/NHL where players get drafted based on their abilities and potential and their performance, many times players are drafted because they've been developed with the local teams as local players who have been with the franchise since they were 13/14 years old. It's not Dmitri's fault that he ended up in the Sibir system when he was 13 years old.

I think the best move for him is to bring him over to the Marlies next year along with Amirov who also isn't getting a ton of playing time even when healthy. Let the Russian kids grow up together (Amirov, Ovch, SDA, Abramov, Gogolev). I think we definitely have NHL talent to some extent in all of these guys.
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The KHL is no different than any other league out there. If you are good enough to play and contribute as a young player, you play and contribute. In fact, it is far more likely for that to happen on a team like Sibir than CSKA because they have a lot less money to spend and a lot less of an opportunity to get older guys who are really high end.

Of course, as you pointed out, they often have worse development programs and fewer KHL-quality guys come out of those programs. So they don't have many young guys in their lineup because their young guys are often not good enough to make it. But if they are good enough, they do make it.

Case in point: Nikita Shashkov had no trouble cracking the Sibir roster full time by 19 (3 years ago) and was even on the Russian U20 team, where he was a PPG. He is not a high end prospect, but he was taking regular shifts by 19. So unless 2 different Sibir coaches are equally as stupid, they seem to have no issues playing young guys in their lineup if they are good enough.

The KHL, much like the rest of Europe, is not a crapshoot. The guys who are good enough to crack an NHL full time roster someday are often (and I am talking about 90+% of cases) capable of playing in a European pro league by the time they are 18 or 19 years old. Maybe it is not as a top 6 guy, but they are taking an every day shift and playing a role... And by the time they are in their early 20's, they are impact players. They are also often on the U18 and U20 squads for their countries as well.

There are exceptions of course, and there is slight variations based on the position (forwards have a lot more spots than defenseman and both have a lot more than goalies), but Ovchinnikov has the easiest road out of anyone... He is a forward playing for a shallow system with little competition for spots. If he was good enough to make the KHL, then he would have made it. And if he felt like he was getting shafted and not given a fair shake, for whatever reason, he didn't need to sign the extension he signed before this year and he could have either gone to the CHL, where he is facing much tougher competition than the MHL East and would excel in a high end role too (if he was truly good enough), or jumped ship to another KHL program where he would have had more opportunities. That is what Nikita Zaitsev did by going from a stacked Moskva system to a shallow Sibir system; and that got him into the KHL full time, as a defenseman, at 18.



Just so people don't think I am pulling this out of my butt, I will use the Leafs' European drafting record (and a few more successful Euro UFA's) as an example:

Stralman: Allsvenskan at 18, SHL at 19, Sweden U20 as an 18 and 19 year old; drafted at 18.
Kulemin: KHL at 19; Russian U20 as a 19 year old; drafted at 19.
Komarov: Liiga at 18; Finland U20 as a 18 and 19 year old; drafted at 18.
Rask: Liiga at 18; Finland U20 as a 17, 18, and 19 year old; drafted at 17.
Gunnarsson: Allsvenskan at 17; SHL at 20; drafted at 20.
Johnsson: SHL at 19; Sweden U20 at 19; drafted at 18.
Engvall: Allsvenskan at 19; SHL at 21; drafted at 17.
Nylander: SHL at 17; Sweden U20 at 18 and 19; drafted at 17.
Grundstrom: SHL at 17; Sweden U20 at 18 and 19; drafted at 18
Liljegren: SHL at 16; Sweden U20 at 18 (injured for his 19 year old tournament); drafted at 17.
Zaitsev: KHL at 18; Russia U20 at 18 and 19; Undrafted.
Mikheyev: KHL at 21; undrafted

Sandin played in the OHL at 17, so I didn't include him, but Sandin started his draft year in the SHL and played Sweden U20 at 18 and 19.

Our top prospects in Europe right now:
Holmberg: SHL at 19; Sweden U20 at 19; drafted at 18.
Kokkonen: Liiga at 17; Finland U20 at 18 and 19; drafted at 17.
Hirvonen: Liiga at 17; Finland U20 at 18 (and likely 19); drafted at 17.
Niemela: Liiga at 17; Finland U20 at 18 (and likely 19); drafted at 17.
Amirov: KHL at 18; Russia U20 at 19; drafted at 18.

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Summary: Ovchinnikov is almost certainly not playing right now because he is just not a good enough player. You say it is doom and gloom, but history dictates that his chances of getting anywhere are pretty much non-existent if he can't figure out a way to crack Sibir's roster full time by the end of this year, even if he is just taking a regular bottom 6 shift like Amirov has been doing the past few years in a much deeper system.
 
stickty111 said:
Aside from this post pretty much saying you don't like the guy, another thing it says is his performance clearly doesn't matter to the coaches. This seems like an organization problem and not a Ovichinikov problem.
@nobody pretty much just showed the organization is garbage.
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It seems odd that this coach, much like the one he had the two years prior, would have a grudge specifically against him when other young guys have historically played in the KHL full time for that organization, and for those coaches in other organizations.

Shashkov specifically started playing at 19 under Sibir's old HC, and their new HC had a couple of guys who were 19 or 20 who played full time when he was coaching Yekaterinburg a couple of years ago. None of them had remotely the same kind of pedigree that Ovchinnikov has, so Ovchinnikov should have been able to crack Sibir a lot earlier than those guys were able to. Instead, we are finding he can't even keep up with guys with a lesser pedigree.

We don't really know if his performances are really all that good, because his MHL production is not really worth all that much and he is not getting more ice time to show what he can do at the KHL level. As it stands right now, however, there are three different HC's who are saying he is not good enough: 2 for Sibir, and one for the Russian U20 squad.
 
SeaOfBlue said:
It seems odd that this coach, much like the one he had the two years prior, would have a grudge specifically against him when other young guys have historically played in the KHL full time for that organization, and for those coaches in other organizations.

Shashkov specifically started playing at 19 under Sibir's old HC, and their new HC had a couple of guys who were 19 or 20 who played full time when he was coaching Yekaterinburg a couple of years ago. None of them had remotely the same kind of pedigree that Ovchinnikov has, so Ovchinnikov should have been able to crack Sibir a lot earlier than those guys were able to. Instead, we are finding he can't even keep up with guys with a lesser pedigree.

We don't really know if his performances are really all that good, because his MHL production is not really worth all that much and he is not getting more ice time to show what he can do at the KHL level. As it stands right now, however, there are three different HC's who are saying he is not good enough: 2 for Sibir, and one for the Russian U20 squad.
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Yeah I don't know. He was brilliant in the MHL and deserves some time to see what he is. I think there is a good chance in another organization he would have got some time by now.
 
stickty111 said:
Yeah I don't know. He was brilliant in the MHL and deserves some time to see what he is. I think there is a good chance in another organization he would have got some time by now.
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That is the problem though. A lot of guys are brilliant in the MHL and many of them don't amount to anything. The best guys don't even end up playing all that much in the MHL once they are 17 or 18 years old, because they are already up in the KHL.

The other problem is that there are not too many organizations out there that have a more clear path to a KHL spot for him than Sibir right now. There are only two teams who have scored fewer goals this year than them, and you can just take a look at Sibir's forward roster... It sucks. If Ovchinnikov can't play better than them, then I don't think he has much of a chance with anyone else.

Ovchinnikov's KHL deal expires after this year. If he feels shafted, then he should sign an AHL deal with the Marlies and go to the Growlers next year. I doubt he is good enough to crack the Marlies right away but he can work his way up, and we all know the Growlers definitely play young, talented players. If he is truly good enough, he will quickly work his way up to the Marlies and maybe earn an ELC in due time as well.

Might as well do the same with Kizimov while you are at it.
 
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It's actually quite rare for the Leafs to have NCAA forwards with a PPG especially before Junior and Senior seasons. This is very encouraging. Remember that it's been a long time since the Leafs have drafted and developed an NCAA forward into a bonafide NHL forward.

I see that Rindell got loaned out to a top of the table team. Looks like it's been good for him so far. I wonder if the NHL would consider the loan mechanism in a future CBA. It could be a different way to handle the trade deadline for some teams. Imagine a perennial loser deciding to loan out its star player in the middle of the contract to give him a taste of the playoffs. For consideration of course. Also might be great for a playoff team to develop a young player while contending like for example Liljegren could have spent the 2nd half of a season with non-playoff contender a few seasons back. And put a limit on the number of these type of transactions like 1 per year and only 1 per player's time with an organization.
 
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If Abruzzese doesn't go pro at the end of this season with Harvard, I have a hard time getting excited about him. He's 2 and 3 years older than most of the high end prospects on Harvard this year.
 
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daethfromabove1979 said:
This is a good point, he's older than Alex Steeves for example. Would be good to see how he stacks up in the AHL next year.
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The college season should be over in early April, no? He reasonably could be playing for Marlies in the last ~5 games of the season and playoffs if he signs.

He's so interesting due to his elite production and play style, but the dude is just straight old. We'll know almost nothing until he plays pro.
 
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One guy I'm interested in seeing what they do with is Tverberg. He'd be going into his junior season next year and if he is as good as his production shows, he should massacre hockey east with almost no help from teammates next year. It would be a little surprising for the Leafs to pull him, but if they have a spot where he'd get consistent playing time with the Marlies I don't see why they shouldn't sign him to his ELC. Let their development staff turn him into the player they want and give him a challenge.
 
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Morgs said:
One guy I'm interested in seeing what they do with is Tverberg. He'd be going into his junior season next year and if he is as good as his production shows, he should massacre hockey east with almost no help from teammates next year. It would be a little surprising for the Leafs to pull him, but if they have a spot where he'd get consistent playing time with the Marlies I don't see why they shouldn't sign him to his ELC. Let their development staff turn him into the player they want and give him a challenge.
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Let him go for his Junior year for sure. We will see about him after that. Same for Miettinen.

Abruzzese is a more interesting question. I think we can fit him in next year, even with Holmberg and Amirov coming and most of the current guys likely not graduating.

However the year after, we will have Hirvonen, Voit, Kressler, and maybe even Knies/Miettinen on top of Tverberg, but a number of guys will likely be graduating by then (Amirov, Steeves, Robertson, etc.)
 
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