Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[SprDaVE]

god I so desperately want to get excited about a goalie prospect.

I think I would be stoked about Peksa's performance maybe a year ago, but seeing how Artur's game has not translated at the next level is concerning given how great he was last year.

Maybe I am just a bit guarded lol. But hey, at least it's better than him sucking at the MHL level

Goaltenders are voodoo, especially Leaf prospects. I thought Woll was a legit top goaltender prospect... The jury is still out I guess but I was wrong.

I'd say until they have a few pro seasons under their belt, it's hard to know what you have. Season to season can vary a lot.

 

[Fogelhund]

god I so desperately want to get excited about a goalie prospect.

I think I would be stoked about Peksa's performance maybe a year ago, but seeing how Artur's game has not translated at the next level is concerning given how great he was last year.

Maybe I am just a bit guarded lol. But hey, at least it's better than him sucking at the MHL level

They are goalies... Don't ever get excited about them, they are like voodoo... you draft them, and let them go through the system. They could excel at every level, and still flop at the NHL. They could languish forever in the system, looking mediocre, and then suddenly become great at the NHL level. Even AHL level goalies, who have won MVP's have flopped in the NHL....

 

[Fogelhund]

Goaltenders are voodoo, especially Leaf prospects. I thought Woll was a legit top goaltender prospect... The jury is still out I guess but I was wrong.

I'd say until they have a few pro seasons under their belt, it's hard to know what you have. Season to season can vary a lot.

I hear an echo... lol

 

[daethfromabove1979]

god I so desperately want to get excited about a goalie prospect.

I think I would be stoked about Peksa's performance maybe a year ago, but seeing how Artur's game has not translated at the next level is concerning given how great he was last year.

Maybe I am just a bit guarded lol. But hey, at least it's better than him sucking at the MHL level

I thought he looked pretty solid in there, watched most of the game afterwards so I could skip through and just watch where the puck was in Peksa's end. It's not great hockey though, it's definitely below the level of the CHL so he should have excellent stats. Next year will be a big year for Peksa, he needs to get some VHL action so we can see how he stacks up against better competition.

 

[Twine Tickler]

First game of the Karjala cup, and Holmberg opens the scoring on a nice finish.
What a prospect he is turning into.

no kidding. This really feels like found gold. He has really come out of nowhere

 

[Twine Tickler]

Goaltenders are voodoo, especially Leaf prospects. I thought Woll was a legit top goaltender prospect... The jury is still out I guess but I was wrong.

I'd say until they have a few pro seasons under their belt, it's hard to know what you have. Season to season can vary a lot.

They are goalies... Don't ever get excited about them, they are like voodoo... you draft them, and let them go through the system. They could excel at every level, and still flop at the NHL. They could languish forever in the system, looking mediocre, and then suddenly become great at the NHL level. Even AHL level goalies, who have won MVP's have flopped in the NHL....

ya I agree, I was hot on Woll for a while. I thought he was a no-doubter. Even Scott to some degree. I thought 100% that at least 1 of them would track to be a starting tendy at some point. But man does that ever look wrong at this point lol.

It seems as if there is this impenetrable wall that these prospects can't break through. They show promise, and then quickly plateau. But @Fogelhund you are absolutely right, until they show it at the NHL level they are far from a guarantee. Even Sparks was an elite AHL tendy. And we all know how that worked for him in the show.

easily the hardest prospects to predict

 

[Morgs]

I just don't see the path to the NHL for Peksa. His numbers seem exciting, but they're middle of the pack for virtually every goalie, every year in that league. Drafted as a D+1 and still in the MHL means the trajectory needed to SKYROCKET for him to even have a case at coming overseas at all.

Every active NA Russian goalie that has at least one career NHL win:

Peksa (6th Round, 2021 [D1])
D0: Russia U18 (1GP)
D1: MHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (19GP ongoing)

-------

Bobrovsky (undrafted):
D0: KHL (8GP)
D1: KHL (24GP)
D2: KHL (32GP)

Varlamov (1st Round, 2006):
D0: Russia3 [MHL] (34GP)
D1: KHL (33GP)
D2: KHL (44GP)

Vasilevsky (1st Round, 2012):
D0: MHL (27GP)
D1: MHL (27GP), KHL (8GP)
D2: KHL (28GP)

Georgiev (undrafted):
D0: 0GP
D1: U20 SM Liiga (25GP), Liiga (14 GP)
D2: U20 Liiga (9GP), Mestis (13GP), Liiga (10GP)

Shesterkin (4th Round, 2014)
D0: MHL (23GP), KHL (9GP)
D1: MHL (3GP), VHL (8GP), KHL (3GP)
D2: MHL (2GP), VHL (25GP), KHL (7GP)

Samsonov (1st Round Pick, 2015)
D0: MHL (18GP), KHL (1GP)
D1: MHL (5GP), KHL (19GP)
D2: KHL (27GP)

Sorokin (3rd Round Pick, 2014 [D+1])
D0: MHL (27GP), KHL (5GP)
D1: MHL (4GP), KHL (27GP)
D2: MHL (4GP), KHL (28GP)

Prosvetov (4th Round Pick, 2018)
D0: USHL (36GP)
D1: OHL (53GP)
D2: AHL (27GP)

Melnichuk (undrafted):
D0: MHL (15GP)
D1: MHL (17GP), VHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (3GP), VHL (19GP), KHL (2GP)

Obviously not every player gets to the NHL the same way, but it sure seems like the really good ones (Bobrovsky, Varlamov, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin) all pretty much took a similar path to get to the NHL from their D0's to D2's. Every single one of them besides Shesty (who had Mikko Koskinen blocking him) played primarily all their games in the KHL by the time their D2's came around, and he ended up playing 39 KHL games the next year with a .937 sv%. Peksa has played less MHL games than most of these guys have played KHL games at the same point. Even Georgiev played 24 games in Liiga, and Melnichuk played 36 games in the VHL and 2 in the KHL at the same point. Prosvetov is completely different because he took the NA route.

I just don't understand the pick whatsoever. 0 track record for a goalie like him, so obviously they must see something they really like.

Edit: Also, this was the year Akhtyamov really needed to take off. Like I said, almost every Russian goalie prospect needs to be a full time KHL player (unless you're as talented as Shesty) at this point. It's very disappointing that he can't make a save at the VHL level currently and seems like he's going to have to repeat the level next season. He's ahead of Peksa still by a lot for me, but he's gone from mid/low tier 3 to low tier 4 in like 20 games for me.

 

[LeafParade]

no kidding. This really feels like found gold. He has really come out of nowhere

I had completely written him off. Especially since he doesn't have the typical profile of a late bloomer.
He looks like he could become a bottom 6 forward.

 

[hockeynorth]

Leafs prospect squad (slotted into the closest thing to their NHL roles):

Robertson - Abbruzesse - Miettinen
Amirov - Abramov - Tverberg
Knies - Hirvonen - Steeves
Holmberg - SDA - Anderson
---
Gogolev - Kressler - Ovchinnikov

Kokkonen - Niemela
Kral - Mennell
Koster - Rindell
---
Rubins - Hollowell

Ian Scott
Joe Woll
---
Artur Ahktyamov
Vladislav Peksa

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

ya I agree, I was hot on Woll for a while. I thought he was a no-doubter. Even Scott to some degree. I thought 100% that at least 1 of them would track to be a starting tendy at some point. But man does that ever look wrong at this point lol.

It seems as if there is this impenetrable wall that these prospects can't break through. They show promise, and then quickly plateau. But @Fogelhund you are absolutely right, until they show it at the NHL level they are far from a guarantee. Even Sparks was an elite AHL tendy. And we all know how that worked for him in the show.

easily the hardest prospects to predict

For Scott, its not even his fault. The guy's hip/groin seems to just not be able to stay healthy, which is crazy at such a young age.

There is still a chance Woll becomes an NHLer. A lot of goalie just take a little longer to figure things out. Look at Thomas,Dubnyk or Campbell. But by the time Woll figures it out he will likely be out of the Leafs organization if he doesn't show improvement in the next year or so.

 

[Morgs]

Leafs prospect squad (slotted into the closest thing to their NHL roles):

Robertson - Abbruzesse - Miettinen
Amirov - Abramov - Tverberg
Knies - Hirvonen - Steeves
Holmberg - SDA - Anderson
---
Gogolev - Kressler - Ovchinnikov

Kokkonen - Niemela
Kral - Mennell
Koster - Rindell
---
Rubins - Hollowell

Ian Scott
Joe Woll
---
Artur Ahktyamov
Vladislav Peksa

Really shows the lack of depth at C in the pool as neither Abruzzese or Hirvonen play the position. Holmberg plays some, but he's primarily a winger afaik.

Not a lot of flash, but I could see every single one of those (top-4 line) forwards playing NHL games, and ~5 of those defenseman. Too bad the goalies suck.

 

[supermann_98]

Leafs prospect squad (slotted into the closest thing to their NHL roles):

Robertson - Abbruzesse - Miettinen
Amirov - Abramov - Tverberg
Knies - Hirvonen - Steeves
Holmberg - SDA - Anderson
---
Gogolev - Kressler - Ovchinnikov

Kokkonen - Niemela
Kral - Mennell
Koster - Rindell
---
Rubins - Hollowell

Ian Scott
Joe Woll
---
Artur Ahktyamov
Vladislav Peksa

Based on this year's play so far you gotta swap Steeves and Miettinen

 

[Leafs1991]

ya I agree, I was hot on Woll for a while. I thought he was a no-doubter. Even Scott to some degree. I thought 100% that at least 1 of them would track to be a starting tendy at some point. But man does that ever look wrong at this point lol.

It seems as if there is this impenetrable wall that these prospects can't break through. They show promise, and then quickly plateau. But @Fogelhund you are absolutely right, until they show it at the NHL level they are far from a guarantee. Even Sparks was an elite AHL tendy. And we all know how that worked for him in the show.

easily the hardest prospects to predict

Look at Lehner, Campbell and so many other goalies hitting their stride late in their twenties. You just never know with goalies.

 

[Knies iT]

I just don't see the path to the NHL for Peksa. His numbers seem exciting, but they're middle of the pack for virtually every goalie, every year in that league. Drafted as a D+1 and still in the MHL means the trajectory needed to SKYROCKET for him to even have a case at coming overseas at all.

Every active NA Russian goalie that has at least one career NHL win:

Peksa (6th Round, 2021 [D1])
D0: Russia U18 (1GP)
D1: MHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (19GP ongoing)

-------

Bobrovsky (undrafted):
D0: KHL (8GP)
D1: KHL (24GP)
D2: KHL (32GP)

Varlamov (1st Round, 2006):
D0: Russia3 [MHL] (34GP)
D1: KHL (33GP)
D2: KHL (44GP)

Vasilevsky (1st Round, 2012):
D0: MHL (27GP)
D1: MHL (27GP), KHL (8GP)
D2: KHL (28GP)

Georgiev (undrafted):
D0: 0GP
D1: U20 SM Liiga (25GP), Liiga (14 GP)
D2: U20 Liiga (9GP), Mestis (13GP), Liiga (10GP)

Shesterkin (4th Round, 2014)
D0: MHL (23GP), KHL (9GP)
D1: MHL (3GP), VHL (8GP), KHL (3GP)
D2: MHL (2GP), VHL (25GP), KHL (7GP)

Samsonov (1st Round Pick, 2015)
D0: MHL (18GP), KHL (1GP)
D1: MHL (5GP), KHL (19GP)
D2: KHL (27GP)

Sorokin (3rd Round Pick, 2014 [D+1])
D0: MHL (27GP), KHL (5GP)
D1: MHL (4GP), KHL (27GP)
D2: MHL (4GP), KHL (28GP)

Prosvetov (4th Round Pick, 2018)
D0: USHL (36GP)
D1: OHL (53GP)
D2: AHL (27GP)

Melnichuk (undrafted):
D0: MHL (15GP)
D1: MHL (17GP), VHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (3GP), VHL (19GP), KHL (2GP)

Obviously not every player gets to the NHL the same way, but it sure seems like the really good ones (Bobrovsky, Varlamov, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin) all pretty much took a similar path to get to the NHL from their D0's to D2's. Every single one of them besides Shesty (who had Mikko Koskinen blocking him) played primarily all their games in the KHL by the time their D2's came around, and he ended up playing 39 KHL games the next year with a .937 sv%. Peksa has played less MHL games than most of these guys have played KHL games at the same point. Even Georgiev played 24 games in Liiga, and Melnichuk played 36 games in the VHL and 2 in the KHL at the same point. Prosvetov is completely different because he took the NA route.

I just don't understand the pick whatsoever. 0 track record for a goalie like him, so obviously they must see something they really like.

Edit: Also, this was the year Akhtyamov really needed to take off. Like I said, almost every Russian goalie prospect needs to be a full time KHL player (unless you're as talented as Shesty) at this point. It's very disappointing that he can't make a save at the VHL level currently and seems like he's going to have to repeat the level next season. He's ahead of Peksa still by a lot for me, but he's gone from mid/low tier 3 to low tier 4 in like 20 games for me.

It’s never been done until it has. Looking at historic precedents for past goalies in the MHL-KHL (or any league) is a fine reference point but doesn’t mean he can’t beat the trend.

To me it seems like they’re doubling down on the Kazan development system. If Akhtyamov busts, Peksa will be given the reigns and vice versa. They’ve essentially ensured they have a future KHL starter in the system with the best outcome being a KHL tandem. Unlikely both don’t become KHLers as Kazan is depending on at least one panning out.

 

[SprDaVE]

I just don't see the path to the NHL for Peksa. His numbers seem exciting, but they're middle of the pack for virtually every goalie, every year in that league. Drafted as a D+1 and still in the MHL means the trajectory needed to SKYROCKET for him to even have a case at coming overseas at all.

Every active NA Russian goalie that has at least one career NHL win:

Peksa (6th Round, 2021 [D1])
D0: Russia U18 (1GP)
D1: MHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (19GP ongoing)

-------

Bobrovsky (undrafted):
D0: KHL (8GP)
D1: KHL (24GP)
D2: KHL (32GP)

Varlamov (1st Round, 2006):
D0: Russia3 [MHL] (34GP)
D1: KHL (33GP)
D2: KHL (44GP)

Vasilevsky (1st Round, 2012):
D0: MHL (27GP)
D1: MHL (27GP), KHL (8GP)
D2: KHL (28GP)

Georgiev (undrafted):
D0: 0GP
D1: U20 SM Liiga (25GP), Liiga (14 GP)
D2: U20 Liiga (9GP), Mestis (13GP), Liiga (10GP)

Shesterkin (4th Round, 2014)
D0: MHL (23GP), KHL (9GP)
D1: MHL (3GP), VHL (8GP), KHL (3GP)
D2: MHL (2GP), VHL (25GP), KHL (7GP)

Samsonov (1st Round Pick, 2015)
D0: MHL (18GP), KHL (1GP)
D1: MHL (5GP), KHL (19GP)
D2: KHL (27GP)

Sorokin (3rd Round Pick, 2014 [D+1])
D0: MHL (27GP), KHL (5GP)
D1: MHL (4GP), KHL (27GP)
D2: MHL (4GP), KHL (28GP)

Prosvetov (4th Round Pick, 2018)
D0: USHL (36GP)
D1: OHL (53GP)
D2: AHL (27GP)

Melnichuk (undrafted):
D0: MHL (15GP)
D1: MHL (17GP), VHL (17GP)
D2: MHL (3GP), VHL (19GP), KHL (2GP)

Obviously not every player gets to the NHL the same way, but it sure seems like the really good ones (Bobrovsky, Varlamov, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin) all pretty much took a similar path to get to the NHL from their D0's to D2's. Every single one of them besides Shesty (who had Mikko Koskinen blocking him) played primarily all their games in the KHL by the time their D2's came around, and he ended up playing 39 KHL games the next year with a .937 sv%. Peksa has played less MHL games than most of these guys have played KHL games at the same point. Even Georgiev played 24 games in Liiga, and Melnichuk played 36 games in the VHL and 2 in the KHL at the same point. Prosvetov is completely different because he took the NA route.

I just don't understand the pick whatsoever. 0 track record for a goalie like him, so obviously they must see something they really like.

Edit: Also, this was the year Akhtyamov really needed to take off. Like I said, almost every Russian goalie prospect needs to be a full time KHL player (unless you're as talented as Shesty) at this point. It's very disappointing that he can't make a save at the VHL level currently and seems like he's going to have to repeat the level next season. He's ahead of Peksa still by a lot for me, but he's gone from mid/low tier 3 to low tier 4 in like 20 games for me.

Throw a dart at a long project in the KHL with decent athleticism and hope that you have his rights if he turns out good enough to sign.

 

[Twine Tickler]

For Scott, its not even his fault. The guy's hip/groin seems to just not be able to stay healthy, which is crazy at such a young age.

There is still a chance Woll becomes an NHLer. A lot of goalie just take a little longer to figure things out. Look at Thomas,Dubnyk or Campbell. But by the time Woll figures it out he will likely be out of the Leafs organization if he doesn't show improvement in the next year or so.

oh 100%

I guess my worry though is that Dubnyk and Campbell never really seemed to struggle at the AHL level. Or at least not to the same extent as our Tendies. Yes the Marlies have been shit, but Woll has had a sub .900 S% since joining the club. Ian Scott's aren't much better, albeit far less of a sample.

Point being, is that Dubby and Campbell really only struggled at the NHL level. That's not to say that the same maturation can't happen for Woll and/or Scott, but they have way more ground to make up IMO.

I think the second I write these 2 off will coincide with the second they shove it down my throat. So I will do us all a favor and completely, officially, Write off Joseph Woll.

The good ole' reverse jinx.

We'll see how he fairs Saturday lol

 

[stickty111]

First game of the Karjala cup, and Holmberg opens the scoring on a nice finish.
What a prospect he is turning into.

Holmberg added an assist too

 

[Morgs]

It’s never been done until it has. Looking at historic precedents for past goalies in the MHL-KHL (or any league) is a fine reference point but doesn’t mean he can’t beat the trend.

To me it seems like they’re doubling down on the Kazan development system. If Akhtyamov busts, Peksa will be given the reigns and vice versa. They’ve essentially ensured they have a future KHL starter in the system with the best outcome being a KHL tandem. Unlikely both don’t become KHLers as Kazan is depending on at least one panning out.

Of course it's never been done until it has. The issue is that although the Leafs will have Peksa in their system for longer than virtually any other prospect they currently have, he just doesn't seem to be worth it. Most of us have almost no idea on how to judge goalies except for historic trends and current statistics (me included), and there is no reason to believe that Peksa has what it takes to become a NHL goalie as there has been exactly 0 (zero) guys that have ever bucked the trend. I'm a statistics guy. Unless he shows me differently, he's a complete non-prospect in my eyes at this point as I don't believe there is a NHL future whatsoever.

Might not be a bad idea to go after a future KHL goalie, but that's all it seems like they're going to get unless one of them all of a sudden show they can not only play in the KHL, but succeed in it. And soon.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

oh 100%

I guess my worry though is that Dubnyk and Campbell never really seemed to struggle at the AHL level. Or at least not to the same extent as our Tendies. Yes the Marlies have been shit, but Woll has had a sub .900 S% since joining the club. Ian Scott's aren't much better, albeit far less of a sample.

Point being, is that Dubby and Campbell really only struggled at the NHL level. That's not to say that the same maturation can't happen for Woll and/or Scott, but they have way more ground to make up IMO.

I think the second I write these 2 off will coincide with the second they shove it down my throat. So I will do us all a favor and completely, officially, Write off Joseph Woll.

The good ole' reverse jinx.

We'll see how he fairs Saturday lol

Except Campbell hasn't really ever struggled at the NHL level. He played 1 game for Dallas, the team that drafted him allowing 6 goals in that game. Then didn't play another NHL game until he got to LA where he put up good numbers.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

oh 100%

I guess my worry though is that Dubnyk and Campbell never really seemed to struggle at the AHL level. Or at least not to the same extent as our Tendies. Yes the Marlies have been shit, but Woll has had a sub .900 S% since joining the club. Ian Scott's aren't much better, albeit far less of a sample.

Point being, is that Dubby and Campbell really only struggled at the NHL level. That's not to say that the same maturation can't happen for Woll and/or Scott, but they have way more ground to make up IMO.

I think the second I write these 2 off will coincide with the second they shove it down my throat. So I will do us all a favor and completely, officially, Write off Joseph Woll.

The good ole' reverse jinx.

We'll see how he fairs Saturday lol

To be fair to Woll and his numbers in the AHL, the Marlies have been garbage since Moore took over for Keefe and many of the prospects have graduated or busted. The Marlies have been pretty thin the last 2 years. I can give him a bit of break on the numbers because of that but what I was concerned with was how he looked. I hadn't seen much growth there. He was giving up a lot of unnecessary rebounds, a little over active in the net, a tendency to fall to his belly or his rear and some soft goals. I think I've only seen 3 Marlies games this year but from what I've seen from him so far this year, his game looked quieter.

Has it been said he is playing for the Leafs on Saturday?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Except Campbell hasn't really ever struggled at the NHL level. He played 1 game for Dallas, the team that drafted him allowing 6 goals in that game. Then didn't play another NHL game until he got to LA where he put up good numbers.

He wasn't great in the year we acquired him from LA. Was only a .900 in 20 games.

Had a very up and down AHL career as well, and it wasn't like his teams were ever that bad either.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

To be fair to Woll and his numbers in the AHL, the Marlies have been garbage since Moore took over for Keefe and many of the prospects have graduated or busted. The Marlies have been pretty thin the last 2 years. I can give him a bit of break on the numbers because of that but what I was concerned with was how he looked. I hadn't seen much growth there. He was giving up a lot of unnecessary rebounds, a little over active in the net, a tendency to fall to his belly or his rear and some soft goals. I think I've only seen 3 Marlies games this year but from what I've seen from him so far this year, his game looked quieter.

Has it been said he is playing for the Leafs on Saturday?

I think he was much better last year than he was the year before. Still gave up weak goals and had bad games, but had just as many great games. Then so far this year, I think he has had one good performance, one solid performance where he mostly just did his part, and one bad performance.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

C/LW Brendan Gaunce


LD Teemu Kivihalme
LW/C Marc Michaelis (traded by Marlies to Cleveland)

Once Robertson returns, and assuming Semyonov is not back from the AHL:

Robertson - SDA - Ho-Sang
Seney - Abramov - Anderson
Gogolev - Gaunce - Steeves
Kopacka - Douglas - McKenna
Clune - Suomela - Gabriel

Dahlstrom - Biega
Rubins - Duszak
Kral - Menell
Hoefenmayer - Hollowell
Hellickson - Finkelstein

Kallgren - Woll
Hutchinson

If we got Brooks and Amadio back from waivers too... That is a pretty stacked lineup.

Robertson - Brooks - Ho-Sang
Seney - SDA - Anderson
Gogolev - Abramov - Steeves
Gaunce - Douglas - Amadio
Kopacka - Suomela - McKenna
Clune/Gabriel

The defense could be better, but I think Menell has a lot more to bring and the other 5 guys have played fairly well. If we get those 6 guys providing even average defenese, then we should at least be able to survive long enough to wait out Kokkonen, Niemela, Rindell, etc. coming into the mix at the end of the year and we should be able to compete if we also have a forward group like the one above.

 

[GoodNewfieBoy]

Surprised no one has mentioned this yet , but Wheeler posted his predicted lineups for the top five nations at the upcoming world juniors.

Has Knies first line left wing, Hirvonen first line centre , Niemela first D pair , and Ovichnikov second line left wing.

 

[Zookeeper]

Surprised no one has mentioned this yet , but Wheeler posted his predicted lineups for the top five nations at the upcoming world juniors.

Has Knies first line left wing, Hirvonen first line centre , Niemela first D pair , and Ovichnikov second line left wing.

Link?