Tableau Public
So Cudmore fixed his draft valuation to give more value to players perceived as "BPA" aka it doesn't punish a team like the Kings or Ottawa as much for taking the ranking 2nd and 3rd best player. The reason they're still negative value picks though is because each pick has a perceived value (1st OA - 1000, 2nd OA - 904, 3rd OA - 809) and each player has their own value that's based on the 50 rankings Cudmore takes from. For example, Lafreniere wasn't ranked 1st OA by all 50 scouting services, so his value is "only" 998, meaning his value difference is -2. So the reason why guys like Stutzle, Sanderson, and Quinn have massive negative value difference is because their player value was much lower than where they were taken: Stutzle had an xRank of 2-5 (5th OA has a pick value at 658 so his massive player difference is because of the people that ranked him 5th), Sanderson's was 7-16, and Quinn was 10-21. It's not to say those players are bad players, but Cudmore is essentially saying they were just not "good value" for where they were taken.
Here are the Leafs based on their "value" based on the 50 rankings consolidated:
Best Leafs Player Value:
1. Rodion Amirov - 321.8
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2. Roni Hirvonen - 142.6
3. Topi Niemela - 124.9
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4. Veeti Miettinen - 84.5
5. William Villeneuve - 73.7
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6. Dimitri Ovchinnikov - 34.5
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7. Artur Akhtyamov - 10.5
T-8. Axel Rindell - 5.8
T-8. Wyatt Schingoethe - 5.8
10. Joe Miller - 2.5
T-11. John Fusco - 0
T-11. Ryan Tverberg - 0
Of the 217 players drafted, here is the "value" of
each pick when taking into account player value (based on their 50 consolidated rankings)
Anything above +30 value should be considered a steal.
Anything positive is considered a "good value pick".
Anything between 10 to -10 should be considered a "net neutral pick" as it's so close.
Anything negative is considered a "not good value pick".
Anything above -30 value should be considered a reach.
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11th - Veeti Miettinen: +76.94
18th - William Villeneuve: +57.76
---------- Steals
19th - Roni Hirvonen: +51.04
22nd - Topi Niemela: +48.14
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44th - Dmitri Ovchinnikov: +22.78
---------- Good Value Pick
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81st - Wyatt Schingoethe: +0.04
87th - Axel Rindell: -1.56
107th - Joe Miller: -4.74
----------------------- Net Neutral Picks
108th - Ryan Tverberg: -4.8
121st - John Fusco: - 6.08
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152nd - Artur Akhtyamov: -15.14
------------- Not Good Value
154th - Rodion Amirov: -16.22
Remember though: like Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell, and Jarvis who went before him, Amirov was considered BPA of who was left at our pick. The issue of Amirov's negative value isn't because he wasn't considered BPA, but it was because his xrank had him between 11-20. It's kind of screwed up, but thats the issue with the 1st round. The value difference between the 15th and 20th OA picks is 73 points of value (aka a late second/early 3rd).
