Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

[nuck]

I do think you have a point that if all goes well it's good to have prospects who can bring some size and physicality, but the fact is drafting for size typically leads to a lot of prospects who don't live up to their draft position. Drafting for upside leads to a lot more success stories of prospects who exceed their draft positions. Just compare the drafting under Hunter to the drafting under Dubas, it's not even really close

To be fair unless you think Durzi and Sandin are stars, no Dubas pick has done any damage in the NHL either, its just been long enough that we know how the Hunter picks have panned out. Other than Korshkov, Hunters picks were mostly taken about where they were ranked so not sure if there was a lot of reaching for size, just some poor choices. Did Hunter take Korshkov where he did because a bias for size, or did Ari Vuori who actually saw the guy play, sell him on the pick? The regional scouts have a lot to do with how the teams list

Drafting for upside doesn't necessarily mean small danglers, since players with size and grit also have upside right? I'm of the opinion that KD knows big guys who can play are harder to find and therefore highly valuable, but he isn't going to tag a guy who they have ranked 20 spots lower in hopes of finding that. Hunter wasn't hooked on trees and Kyle isn't hooked on dwarves.

 

[JTK1967]

Anyone keeping tabs of NCAA UFA's we should be keeping our eyes out for?

Saw Jake Livingstone play recently, and man is he a handful. 6'4 230 RHD who can skate well. Would love to get him into the system

 

[Stephen]

Leafs also took guys like Knies and Minten in the past couple drafts. Detroit also drafted Marco Kasper and Buchelnikov this past draft. You can point to one example, and I can point to another. It will be endless.

Tools do matter but you're basing your whole argument on their size and not what they do on the ice. This isn't the 70s anymore. You can be under 6 foot and make a world of difference with intangibles and more than just "skill". If NA pans out, you have a 60ish point player picked in the 4th round. Soderblom was a good pick for Detroit and I'm sure 31 teams would pick him much sooner if they knew.

Leafs could just draft a bunch of fridges like Mark Hunter tried to do and they could miss out on some major talent. That's what scouting is. It's not just looking at a spreadsheet with height and weight and picking. A bigger player will always be better if they're equal, but this isn't a black and white process.

Hunter's drafts largely fizzled out past the early rounds, but the drafts he oversaw did include high skill, massive upside smaller size picks in Marner, Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov, and to a lesser degree Brooks, Grundstrom. Those kind of guys would be pretty typical of the Dubas drafts. He also brought in higher skilled defensemen in Dermott and Liljegren, who was once a top 2 ranked prospect who fell to the teens.

Maybe Hunter's characterized as a big fridge drafter because of the Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway and Middleton picks, but I think people tend to overlook the fact that it's more about the mix in the pipeline, which I think Hunter got right. Percentage-wise, a guy like Keaton Middleton is likely not anymore likely to a Mac Hollowell, but you want both in the system so they can develop in parallel and compete for different needs. I think the earlier Dubas drafts did a very poor job at that.

 

[LeafSteel]

Hunter's drafts largely fizzled out past the early rounds, but the drafts he oversaw did include high skill, massive upside smaller size picks in Marner, Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov, and to a lesser degree Brooks, Grundstrom. Those kind of guys would be pretty typical of the Dubas drafts. He also brought in higher skilled defensemen in Dermott and Liljegren, who was once a top 2 ranked prospect who fell to the teens.

Maybe Hunter's characterized as a big fridge drafter because of the Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway and Middleton picks, but I think people tend to overlook the fact that it's more about the mix in the pipeline, which I think Hunter got right. Percentage-wise, a guy like Keaton Middleton is likely not anymore likely to a Mac Hollowell, but you want both in the system so they can develop in parallel and compete for different needs. I think the earlier Dubas drafts did a very poor job at that.

Good post.

Well said.

 

[SprDaVE]

Hunter's drafts largely fizzled out past the early rounds, but the drafts he oversaw did include high skill, massive upside smaller size picks in Marner, Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov, and to a lesser degree Brooks, Grundstrom. Those kind of guys would be pretty typical of the Dubas drafts. He also brought in higher skilled defensemen in Dermott and Liljegren, who was once a top 2 ranked prospect who fell to the teens.

Maybe Hunter's characterized as a big fridge drafter because of the Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway and Middleton picks, but I think people tend to overlook the fact that it's more about the mix in the pipeline, which I think Hunter got right. Percentage-wise, a guy like Keaton Middleton is likely not anymore likely to a Mac Hollowell, but you want both in the system so they can develop in parallel and compete for different needs. I think the earlier Dubas drafts did a very poor job at that.

I would say he's gets the same charactization that Dubas gets, but reversed. Is one fair over the other?

Not sure what Hunter got right of anything when nothing of what's being discussed here really changed anything while he was here picking more sizeable players for the mix in the pipeline. And while Dermott is a fine player, he's hardly someone anyone would consider "higher skilled".

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hunter's drafts largely fizzled out past the early rounds, but the drafts he oversaw did include high skill, massive upside smaller size picks in Marner, Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov, and to a lesser degree Brooks, Grundstrom. Those kind of guys would be pretty typical of the Dubas drafts. He also brought in higher skilled defensemen in Dermott and Liljegren, who was once a top 2 ranked prospect who fell to the teens.

Maybe Hunter's characterized as a big fridge drafter because of the Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway and Middleton picks, but I think people tend to overlook the fact that it's more about the mix in the pipeline, which I think Hunter got right. Percentage-wise, a guy like Keaton Middleton is likely not anymore likely to a Mac Hollowell, but you want both in the system so they can develop in parallel and compete for different needs. I think the earlier Dubas drafts did a very poor job at that.

Hunter just seemed bad at identifying talent, regardless of size. But it seems like he moved away from the methodology in his 2015 draft to become even worse.

For me, I think the biggest concern with Dubas' drafting is he gives picks away like candy. He also seems pretty bad at finding goalies, but that's extremely common. His overall vision for prospects is pretty hard to argue with though. Keep in mind he's added players like Knies, Minten, Douglas, Steeves, Tverberg, and McMann. All of them bring a degree of physicality and are hard to play against. Then there are guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, and Holmberg who play simple but effective games who should all see NHL action in the near future

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Nick Robertson is just not ready. Too small, not strong enough...if he's not gonna get much faster I don't think he'll ever amount to more than a Bohonos/Jeremy Williams type.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Thanks, using the 2022 rules, it is logical these rules would apply to 2023:

2022 NHL entry draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Rules for 2022:

Ice hockey players born between January 1, 2002, and September 15, 2004, were eligible for selection in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. Additionally, un-drafted, non-North American players born in 2001 were eligible for the draft; and those players who were drafted in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, but not signed by an NHL team and who were born after June 30, 2002, were also eligible to re-enter the draft.[4]

2023 NHL entry draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ice hockey players born between January 1, 2003, and September 15, 2005, are eligible for selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Additionally, un-drafted, non-North American players born in 2002 are eligible for the draft; and those players who were drafted in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, but not signed by an NHL team and who were born after June 30, 2003, are also eligible to re-enter the draft.[2]

Djibril Toure​

Defense -- shoots L
Born Jun 5 2003 -- Dorval, PQ
[19 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 174 [193 cm/79 kg]


Athletic has it wrong?

How to watch the NHL Draft: Date, time, streaming, draft order and eligibility

Answering some key questions about the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

The NHL Draft differs from its NBA and NFL counterparts in that players don’t declare their entry into it. In the NHL Draft, all North American players who are 18 years old by Sept. 15 of the year of their draft and under 20 years old by Dec. 15 of that same year are eligible.

Effectively you can be a D+2 if you are in NA. D+3 if you are a Euro guy.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Hunter just seemed bad at identifying talent, regardless of size. But it seems like he moved away from the methodology in his 2015 draft to become even worse.

For me, I think the biggest concern with Dubas' drafting is he gives picks away like candy. He also seems pretty bad at finding goalies, but that's extremely common. His overall vision for prospects is pretty hard to argue with though. Keep in mind he's added players like Knies, Minten, Douglas, Steeves, Tverberg, and McMann. All of them bring a degree of physicality and are hard to play against. Then there are guys like Niemela, Hirvonen, and Holmberg who play simple but effective games who should all see NHL action in the near future

In 5 drafts since Dubas took over the Leafs have picked:

2 times in round 1
5 times in round 2
5 times in round 3
6 times in round 4
5 times in round 5
5 times in round 6
7 times in round 7

Has he traded the 1st rounder a few times? Sure, but if it were up to some people here each first rounder would be traded 3 or 4 times if that were allowed. He's also made up for that with a history of impressive 2nd round picks(to this point in the prospects development). I'd hardly classify the overall approach as giving away picks like candy.

 

[uncleben]

Thanks, using the 2022 rules, it is logical these rules would apply to 2023:

2022 NHL entry draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Rules for 2022:

Ice hockey players born between January 1, 2002, and September 15, 2004, were eligible for selection in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. Additionally, un-drafted, non-North American players born in 2001 were eligible for the draft; and those players who were drafted in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, but not signed by an NHL team and who were born after June 30, 2002, were also eligible to re-enter the draft.[4]

2023 NHL entry draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ice hockey players born between January 1, 2003, and September 15, 2005, are eligible for selection in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Additionally, un-drafted, non-North American players born in 2002 are eligible for the draft; and those players who were drafted in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, but not signed by an NHL team and who were born after June 30, 2003, are also eligible to re-enter the draft.[2]

Djibril Toure​

Defense -- shoots L
Born Jun 5 2003 -- Dorval, PQ
[19 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 174 [193 cm/79 kg]


Athletic has it wrong?

How to watch the NHL Draft: Date, time, streaming, draft order and eligibility

Answering some key questions about the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

The NHL Draft differs from its NBA and NFL counterparts in that players don’t declare their entry into it. In the NHL Draft, all North American players who are 18 years old by Sept. 15 of the year of their draft and under 20 years old by Dec. 15 of that same year are eligible.

Not sure where the Athletic is pulling from. Let's call it a typo.

Here's the CBA:

All Players age 18 or older are eligible for claim in the Entry Draft, except:
(i) a Player on the Reserve List of a Club, other than as a try-out;
(ii) a Player who has been claimed in two prior Entry Drafts;
(iii) a Player who previously played in the League and became a Free Agent pursuant to this Agreement;
(iv) a Player age 21 or older who: (A) has not been selected in a previous Entry Draft and (B) played hockey for at least one season in North America when he was age 18, 19, or 20 and shall be eligible to enter the League as an Unrestricted Free Agent pursuant to Article 10.1(d); and
(v) a Player age 22 or older who has not been selected in a previous Entry Draft and shall be eligible to enter the League as an Unrestricted Free Agent pursuant to Article 10.1(d).

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

In 5 drafts since Dubas took over the Leafs have picked:

2 times in round 1
5 times in round 2
5 times in round 3
6 times in round 4
5 times in round 5
5 times in round 6
7 times in round 7

Has he traded the 1st rounder a few times? Sure, but if it were up to some people here each first rounder would be traded 3 or 4 times if that were allowed. He's also made up for that with a history of impressive 2nd round picks(to this point in the prospects development). I'd hardly classify the overall approach as giving away picks like candy.

I don't know if you can really count 2018, since he wasn't the GM until May.

If you just look at his more recent work and when he's had full control, he's traded away his first round pick 4/4 times (he did bring one back and a high second) and only selected 8 players between the last 2 drafts. Now I'm not saying that's unforgivable but it is his biggest weakness. His actual selections are good

 

[kk87]

I do think you have a point that if all goes well it's good to have prospects who can bring some size and physicality, but the fact is drafting for size typically leads to a lot of prospects who don't live up to their draft position. Drafting for upside leads to a lot more success stories of prospects who exceed their draft positions. Just compare the drafting under Hunter to the drafting under Dubas, it's not even really close

This is the key right here; for all Dubas' talk of market inefficiencies, it's a very real phenomenon. Of course getting a player with a perfect blend of speed, skill, and size would be amazing, but the reality is there are very few of them and they almost always go high in the draft. Then, many teams revert to drafting for size over skill - and although there's the occasional diamond in the rough, that strategy simply has a way lower probability of panning out than picking small skill guys. Anyone with an ability to find hockeydb could've told you Brayden Point was worthy of a pick in the first two rounds based on numbers alone, but he fell because he wasn't big enough.

Until this paradigm shifts around the league, it will always be the most prudent strategy, probabilistically, to take small players late, because they will inevitably be the most skilled players remaining.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

The sad thing about Dubas' draft record is the lack of impact in the forward ranks. He's had a couple of good picks with Sandin & Lilly, forwards?? Zilch

Robertson is the closest thing and he's highly inefficient so far this season. Teams like Tampa, Boston, Avs keep plugging in young picks in their bottom 6...we have to go out and dumpster dive for PTO/bargain basement types. Really hoping Knies pans out cause holy shit

 

[Stephen]

I would say he's gets the same charactization that Dubas gets, but reversed. Is one fair over the other?

Not sure what Hunter got right of anything when nothing of what's being discussed here really changed anything while he was here picking more sizeable players for the mix in the pipeline. And while Dermott is a fine player, he's hardly someone anyone would consider "higher skilled".

Hunter got the mix right in choosing high end skill in 2015 during the Marner draft and then diversifying the prospect pool with some big body picks, power forwards, defensemen with reach in the 2016-2017 drafts. Where he fell short was the players he drafted either didn't develop or weren't any good at all. But conceptually you can see that if 1 or 2 of Bracco, Timashov or Brooks developed into NHL players, they could fill a top six skill role, whereas a Middleton, Gordeev, Rasanen could have filled a Holl-Lyubushkin role. Andrew Nielsen could have been higher in the lineup. Korshkov probably would have been something like a slower Mikheyev.

I don't see that diversity and parallel track in the Dubas drafts, especially the earlier ones, and the paths to real NHL roles isn't clear to me either.

 

[Stephen]

This is the key right here; for all Dubas' talk of market inefficiencies, it's a very real phenomenon. Of course getting a player with a perfect blend of speed, skill, and size would be amazing, but the reality is there are very few of them and they almost always go high in the draft. Then, many teams revert to drafting for size over skill - and although there's the occasional diamond in the rough, that strategy simply has a way lower probability of panning out than picking small skill guys. Anyone with an ability to find hockeydb could've told you Brayden Point was worthy of a pick in the first two rounds based on numbers alone, but he fell because he wasn't big enough.

Until this paradigm shifts around the league, it will always be the most prudent strategy, probabilistically, to take small players late, because they will inevitably be the most skilled players remaining.

This is a conceptual blind spot that needs to be scrutinized in more detail.

Yes, there is a market inefficiency because teams traditionally have prejudices against small players. But there is sometimes a reason for this, and it's because unless that small player is in the 0.1 percentile or whatever, they aren't that versatile playing the non skilled roles on a team.

A good example is Jeremy Bracco. He was an extremely skilled junior player and was even a PPG player in the AHL. But he had a narrow window to be a top 6 NHLer and failing that he couldn't hold a bottom 6 job at all. So are you better off with a less "skilled" player who can fit more roles and be a viable NHLer? Or are you constantly picking AAAA guys? There's no right or wrong answer on an individual pick, but if you pick a whole boat load of these guys, you don't have a lot of help at the bottom of the lineup.

Dubas compounds the problem by his trade down strategy. If the goal is to look for big AND skilled players you want to pick higher in the draft to maximize the probability of finding that high quality. Not trade down to play the percentages on worse options. A good example of this would be the Danila Yurov pick in the 2022 draft.

 

[kk87]

This is a conceptual blind spot that needs to be scrutinized in more detail.

Yes, there is a market inefficiency because teams traditionally have prejudices against small players. But there is sometimes a reason for this, and it's because unless that small player is in the 0.1 percentile or whatever, they aren't that versatile playing the non skilled roles on a team.

A good example is Jeremy Bracco. He was an extremely skilled junior player and was even a PPG player in the AHL. But he had a narrow window to be a top 6 NHLer and failing that he couldn't hold a bottom 6 job at all. So are you better off with a less "skilled" player who can fit more roles and be a viable NHLer? Or are you constantly picking AAAA guys? There's no right or wrong answer on an individual pick, but if you pick a whole boat load of these guys, you don't have a lot of help at the bottom of the lineup.

Dubas compounds the problem by his trade down strategy. If the goal is to look for big AND skilled players you want to pick higher in the draft to maximize the probability of finding that high quality. Not trade down to play the percentages on worse options. A good example of this would be the Danila Yurov pick in the 2022 draft.

Fair, but you're still far more likely to come up with an impact player in the 2nd round onward if they were productive in junior than a player who isn't productive at lower levels. That seems pretty obvious to me, and isn't inherently linked to size - but the fact of the matter is that the majority of productive players available later in the draft are smaller in stature.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The sad thing about Dubas' draft record is the lack of impact in the forward ranks. He's had a couple of good picks with Sandin & Lilly, forwards?? Zilch

Robertson is the closest thing and he's highly inefficient so far this season. Teams like Tampa, Boston, Avs keep plugging in young picks in their bottom 6...we have to go out and dumpster dive for PTO/bargain basement types. Really hoping Knies pans out cause holy shit

Like which players? The only guy Boston drafted in their bottom 6 is Frederic, who's a 2016 pick. Tampa does have a 2018 pick, but he has 0 points in 12 games and I bet you've never heard of him so I don't know what you have to be envious about

 

[meefer]

The sad thing about Dubas' draft record is the lack of impact in the forward ranks. He's had a couple of good picks with Sandin & Lilly, forwards?? Zilch

Robertson is the closest thing and he's highly inefficient so far this season. Teams like Tampa, Boston, Avs keep plugging in young picks in their bottom 6...we have to go out and dumpster dive for PTO/bargain basement types. Really hoping Knies pans out cause holy shit

Nick Robertson:

*Tied for 8th in scoring for the team with Jarnkrok and Kerfoot with 5 points, 2G/3A
*Is one point behind Bunting, 2 behind Kamph.
*Though a flawed stat, he is a +1, I'd guess due to Ozone starts.
*Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Bunting and Kamph have dressed for 16 games. Robertson, 10.
*TOI: 16:02(K), 15:33(B), 14:24(Kamph), 13:05(J)...11:19 Robertson (ranked 19th on the team)
*7th in team scoring at equal strength, 6th if you remove Rielly.
*7th in team P/60, 5th if you remove Benn and Clifford.
*3rd in ESG/60, behind Benn and Liljegren.
*4th in ESA/60, 2nd behind Marner if you remove Clifford and Simmonds.
*3rd in ESP/60, 1st if you remove Clifford and Benn.
*8th in SH%, 6th if you remove Liljegren (50%) and Benn (33.3%)
*15th in BS, with 8 of the others ahead of him being defensemen.

You have high standards

 

[Martin Skoula]

Hunter's drafts largely fizzled out past the early rounds, but the drafts he oversaw did include high skill, massive upside smaller size picks in Marner, Bracco, Dzierkals, Timashov, and to a lesser degree Brooks, Grundstrom. Those kind of guys would be pretty typical of the Dubas drafts. He also brought in higher skilled defensemen in Dermott and Liljegren, who was once a top 2 ranked prospect who fell to the teens.

Maybe Hunter's characterized as a big fridge drafter because of the Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway and Middleton picks, but I think people tend to overlook the fact that it's more about the mix in the pipeline, which I think Hunter got right. Percentage-wise, a guy like Keaton Middleton is likely not anymore likely to a Mac Hollowell, but you want both in the system so they can develop in parallel and compete for different needs. I think the earlier Dubas drafts did a very poor job at that.

Rasanen, Korshkov, Gordeev, Greenway wouldn't be able to compete with Hollowell considering none of them could even manage to become AHL regulars. Middleton is the only one who managed to become a mid range AHL player out of them. How bad are their skills that they can't even make the AHL with their size?

Not that AHLers are a good result for picks in that range but going 1/5 with those picks is inexcuseable. We'd be looking at a Marlies roster of a bunch of Mike Zigomanis' again instead of having 2 lines of bottom-6 ready early-mid 20s ELC talent ready to step up at a moment's notice.

I agree with you about adding more variety to our draft profile at this stage but most of Hunters fridges are the equivalent of picking a 5'4 offensive winger on the flip side of the coin.

 

[Clyde Brewer]

the marlies are incredibly easy to watch lol ahltv for one team is $65 and you can watch them on desktop, mobile or pretty much any way to watch on tv that isn't cable (roku, amazon fire, appletv, android tv)

I appreciate that. Can you go back and watch any game on demand with that deal? Or is it live only?


I was thinking more if the games being regularly televised on a channel that I already subscribe to, like one of the TSN channels.

$65 isn't a lot of money, but it's one more subscription and I need to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I do think you have a point that if all goes well it's good to have prospects who can bring some size and physicality, but the fact is drafting for size typically leads to a lot of prospects who don't live up to their draft position. Drafting for upside leads to a lot more success stories of prospects who exceed their draft positions. Just compare the drafting under Hunter to the drafting under Dubas, it's not even really close

This this and this. Even if you have similar in your organization, they remain trade capital whereas the other do not. It’s also far easier to land intangible types at lower cost.

 

[Stephen]

Fair, but you're still far more likely to come up with an impact player in the 2nd round onward if they were productive in junior than a player who isn't productive at lower levels. That seems pretty obvious to me, and isn't inherently linked to size - but the fact of the matter is that the majority of productive players available later in the draft are smaller in stature.

It’s a judgement call, but there are some late round reach picks who weren’t even productive juniors.

 

[Fogelhund]

The sad thing about Dubas' draft record is the lack of impact in the forward ranks. He's had a couple of good picks with Sandin & Lilly, forwards?? Zilch

Robertson is the closest thing and he's highly inefficient so far this season. Teams like Tampa, Boston, Avs keep plugging in young picks in their bottom 6...we have to go out and dumpster dive for PTO/bargain basement types. Really hoping Knies pans out cause holy shit

Impact forwards?

You really think you get impact forwards very often, from where we've been picking? This is a disconnect with reality moment.

 

[Stephen]

I do think you have a point that if all goes well it's good to have prospects who can bring some size and physicality, but the fact is drafting for size typically leads to a lot of prospects who don't live up to their draft position. Drafting for upside leads to a lot more success stories of prospects who exceed their draft positions. Just compare the drafting under Hunter to the drafting under Dubas, it's not even really close

There’s just a conceptual hangover from drafting Tyler Biggs, Jamie Devane, Kenny Ryan and Freddy Gauthier. The picks and development were incorrect in the end but it doesn’t invalidate the player type since if any of them had panned out you’d have a bottom of the lineup piece. In the end it doesn’t matter if they just. Bracco and Timashov aren’t NHLers either. But like I said, make sure that pipeline has the mix so there’s a chance different player types can break through and have different jobs waiting for them.

 

[Americanadian]

The sad thing about Dubas' draft record is the lack of impact in the forward ranks. He's had a couple of good picks with Sandin & Lilly, forwards?? Zilch

Robertson is the closest thing and he's highly inefficient so far this season. Teams like Tampa, Boston, Avs keep plugging in young picks in their bottom 6...we have to go out and dumpster dive for PTO/bargain basement types. Really hoping Knies pans out cause holy shit

Dubas didn’t draft Liljegren. As good as Liljegren looks now you also have to keep in mind Thomas and Norris went 2/3 spots after him in the 2017 draft.