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Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

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weems said:
His skill level is extremely high.

If you watched those clips and knew nothing about the player, There's no way you'd think he's 6'3 210 because he's very agile and changes direction very quickly and that's not very common with players that size.

Another thing you notice is just how much more wide open the college game is vs pro hockey and that's definitely something that he will have to adjust too with not as much time or space to make certain plays and the chance you also get flattened increases.
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I would have have been worried about adjustment to pro as well but his defensive skill set (forecheck, takeaways, puck possession) is super high which will translate well while he finds those areas for his offensive game.
 
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Thornbury said:
I sure hope not. We already have 4 viable prospects. We need D and C prospects.
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Woll - 1998 born , 2016 draft year - soon to be 25 years old
Petruzelli - 1999 born, 2017 draft year - 24 years old
Hildeby- 2001 born - 2019 draft year - soon to be 22
Akhtyamov 2001 born - 2020 draft year, 22 in the fall
Peksa - 2002 born, 2020 draft year, 21 this summer

Hrabal/Augustine - 2005 born, both committed to college

Assuming they play three years and come out, the above group with be the following ages in the first full pro year for a 2023 pick -28/27/25/25/24


I'm not saying that we need to take a goalie high, (I agree we need C & D), but we don't have a single goalie from the 03 or 04 age groups. An 05 certainly slots into the pipe/timeline without getting blocked
 
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4thline said:
Woll - 1998 born , 2016 draft year - soon to be 25 years old
Petruzelli - 1999 born, 2017 draft year - 24 years old
Hildeby- 2001 born - 2019 draft year - soon to be 22
Akhtyamov 2001 born - 2020 draft year, 22 in the fall
Peksa - 2002 born, 2020 draft year, 21 this summer

Hrabal/Augustine - 2005 born, both committed to college

Assuming they play three years and come out, the above group with be the following ages in the first full pro year for a 2023 pick -28/27/25/25/24


I'm not saying that we need to take a goalie high, (I agree we need C & D), but we don't have a single goalie from the 03 or 04 age groups. An 05 certainly slots into the pipe/timeline without getting blocked
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If the Leafs don't hit on any of their assets it's trouble.

If they do hit, they're looking for a backup at most over the next decade.

I don't think Rangers or Lightning are worried about goalie prospects.

But that brings to mind, how much would Shesterkin get as UFA?
 
The good thing with Samsonov is, he just turned 26. We have him for the foreseeable future and he’s a former 1st round pick. No need to waste our 1st this year for a goalie unless he’s actually the BPA.

Samsonov, Woll, Hildeby, Peksa and Akhtyamov is pretty solid in the pipeline.
 
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ULF_55 said:
If the Leafs don't hit on any of their assets it's trouble.

If they do hit, they're looking for a backup at most over the next decade.

I don't think Rangers or Lightning are worried about goalie prospects.

But that brings to mind, how much would Shesterkin get as UFA?
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There are at most a handful of true starters (not tandem guys) with decade long staying power in the league now. The dichotomy of bust vs. solid for a decade just isn't reflected in reality, and doesn't take into account the need for a minor league pipeline, waiver exempt 3rd/4th string etc.

Even if Sammy and Woll have us set for the next 5 years as the opening day tandem, and one of the others "hits", 2-3 years from now the Marlies crease will be empty of Leaf's owned tendies.

2-3 years after that when a 2023 pick should be ready (4-6 years total) at 22-24 Samsonov will be 30-32, Woll 29-31, Hildeby/Akhyamov 26-28.
 
4thline said:
There are at most a handful of true starters (not tandem guys) with decade long staying power in the league now. The dichotomy of bust vs. solid for a decade just isn't reflected in reality, and doesn't take into account the need for a minor league pipeline, waiver exempt 3rd/4th string etc.

Even if Sammy and Woll have us set for the next 5 years as the opening day tandem, and one of the others "hits", 2-3 years from now the Marlies crease will be empty of Leaf's owned tendies.

2-3 years after that when a 2023 pick should be ready (4-6 years total) at 22-24 Samsonov will be 30-32, Woll 29-31, Hildeby/Akhyamov 26-28.
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But this is also ignoring the possibility of picking up goalies that weren’t drafted by the leafs. Heck look at our system right now, Kallgren and Petruzelli are viable AHL guys who weren’t our picks. There are always some Euro or NCAA guys that can fill lower-upside roles assuming the NHL crease is well taken care of.
 
dangomon said:
But this is also ignoring the possibility of picking up goalies that weren’t drafted by the leafs. Heck look at our system right now, Kallgren and Petruzelli are viable AHL guys who weren’t our picks. There are always some Euro or NCAA guys that can fill lower-upside roles assuming the NHL crease is well taken care of.
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Granted, and I like Petruzelli as a legitimate prospect, but while depth filler can work as a stop gap if the upside isn't there it still leaves a gap in the pipeline in terms of actually likely graduates.

I'll repeat the end of the initial post

"I'm not saying that we need to take a goalie high, (I agree we need C & D), but we don't have a single goalie from the 03 or 04 age groups. An 05 certainly slots into the pipe/timeline without getting blocked"

The current state of our goalie pipeline is no (zero/nada) justification for not using a 2023 pick on an 05/04 born G that our scouts think has starters upside. Thinking so requires completed ignoring the ages and contract status of the pipeline.

People just don't want to take a goalie and are trying to justify it.
 
ULF_55 said:
They've taken a goalie 3 straight years.

1 or 2 years difference is age really doesn't matter when their expected arrival is about 6 years after 1st. draft age.
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It does when the most recent is an 01 with waiver clock already started (Hildeby would not be waiver exempt in Hrabal/Augustine's first pro season if they come out after their junior year), and the other two are Russian hail mary's that are behind the curve developmentally and would likely be coming over on one and done ELC's with out clauses (if they ever get good enough).

An 05 2023 pick is 4,4, and 3, years younger than our last three G picks, not 1-2. That's the point.
 
I really do not see the need to draft a goalie within the top 4 rounds this season. We have a decent amount of goaltending prospects in the pipeline and we hardly have the space to play them under our own umbrella. Of course 2023 selections will not transition into our system right away anyways, but I just don't think we need to spend the very limited high end draft capital that we have on a position of depth at this point. Some may disagree with the quality of our goaltending prospects, and there would be some truth to that in the sense that we do not have a blue chip prospect in that bunch. But between Hildeby, Petruzelli, Akhtyamov, Peska, and the recent reemergence of Joe Woll, we have some very good quality there.

I know @SeaOfBlue may not be overly high on the Russian tendies, and often references the fact that neither one of them is currently in the KHL and that they may technically be behind in their development as a result. I just disagree. Goaltending is and always has been equally about opportunity as it is ability. With so little spots available at each level, goaltenders can only progress so far in a given year without injury. Joe Woll is a perfect example of this. He has been absolutely excellent this season at both the AHL and NHL level. There is no reason to suggest he hasn't earned his way onto the big club. Unfortunately for him, a healthy Murr and Sammy will always be ahead of him in our organizational depth chart and only in the event of an injury will Joe get a shot to showcase his stuff.

Artur has clearly shown that he can dominate the VHL level, but with a healthy Bilyalov and Miftakhov at the big club, it was always unlikely for Artur to se KHL action this season. So realistically what more could we have expected from the kid? I do not view him as much of a long shot as @SeaOfBlue but I also respect where that logic comes from.

Taking it back to Joe Woll for a sec, I think he is a prime example of what we hope to achieve with some of those aforementioned goaltending prospects. Slow burn these guys in whatever league we can get them regular ice time, and when vacancies open up at the next level give them the shot. I think Joe has earned himself a real shot at one of the 2 spots on the Maple Leafs roster for the 2023-24 season at this point. I actually think a Sammy/Woll tandem is the clubhouse leader for likeliest combo's. I also think we've seen what we need to see from Kallgren at this point, and I think we can all agree he is no longer worth his spot in our organizational depth chart. His departure and a Woll promotion will open up more ice time at the Marlie and Growler level. Which bodes well for one of the Russians to come over, or McKay/Petruzelli or even Hildeby to take the crease and run with it.

We have steadily selected Goaltenders in the middle to late rounds since 2016. We are starting to see the benefits of this. I think we keep the status quo on that philosophy TBH. If the value presents itself in the later rounds to select a tendy do so, but don't reach.
 
I think it depends on opportunity as well. If we trade down and get a couple picks in the 2nd/3rd, and Trey Augustine/Mike Hrabel is available in the late 2nd or early 3rd? I do it. If we're talking about trying to grab him in the 1st, that would be a bit out of character.
 
4thline said:
It does when the most recent is an 01 with waiver clock already started (Hildeby would not be waiver exempt in Hrabal/Augustine's first pro season if they come out after their junior year), and the other two are Russian hail mary's that are behind the curve developmentally and would likely be coming over on one and done ELC's with out clauses (if they ever get good enough).

An 05 2023 pick is 4,4, and 3, years younger than our last three G picks, not 1-2. That's the point.
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If the best player is a goaltender, why wouldn't you take him?

However, with just 3 picks, Leafs would be better signing a college grad or undrafted player from try-out camp.

How many drafted goalies actually become starters in the NHL?
Curious of the odds, per round.
 
ULF_55 said:
If the best player is a goaltender, why wouldn't you take him?

However, with just 3 picks, Leafs would be better signing a college grad or undrafted player from try-out camp.
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Bold 1 - Apparently because we have pair of 20+ guys in the VHL. That's the whole point. If there's a high upside G available and identified as BPA at any of our picks we take him. The current G pipeline doesn't impact that decision.

Bold 2- that applies moreso to other positions. At G the reverse is true. We currently have a lot of pro depth at G, we lack unsigned/U20 depth. Different stages of the pipeline. Suppose we could sign a CHL player that gets passed over and push their ELC back twice (G version of Kressler) but what are the odds that said player (that's worth the contract) gets passed over?
 
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ULF_55 said:
If the best player is a goaltender, why wouldn't you take him?

However, with just 3 picks, Leafs would be better signing a college grad or undrafted player from try-out camp.

How many drafted goalies actually become starters in the NHL?
Curious of the odds, per round.
Click to expand...

Lankinen, Francouz, Georgiev, Thompson, Vejmelka (5th rounder but signed as UFA prospect), Raanta, DeSmith, Talbot, Rittich, Bobrovsky, Copley, and Lindgren. The rest are probably not worth mentioning.

If you go CHL route, then you pretty much need to go for a guy drafted in the top 125. Drafting a late round CHLer is pretty much a waste, with Kuemper being the only one who really worked out. He is also really the only guy not drafted in their first go-round, with Hill, Ingram, and Thompson (who breaks a lot of rules) being the others off of the top of my head. Even in the 4th round it was mostly Grubauer and Reimer.

You can find some steals from Europe and the NCAA in the later rounds. Although I think teams are getting a little bit wiser to it... I don't think you will find too many Shetyerkins falling to the 4th round or Bobrovsky going undrafted 4 times anymore. Especially with the dearth of good CHL goaltending over the past decade... teams are looking at the Russian and Finnish goalie factories for talent.
 
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4thline said:
Bold 2- that applies moreso to other positions. At G the reverse is true. We currently have a lot of pro depth at G, we lack unsigned/U20 depth. Different stages of the pipeline. Suppose we could sign a CHL player that gets passed over and push their ELC back twice (G version of Kressler) but what are the odds that said player (that's worth the contract) gets passed over?
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Yeah, with the Leafs seemingly always struggling with contracts openings, Leafs drafting throwaways is kind of required SOP.
 
ULF_55 said:
They've taken a goalie 3 straight years.

1 or 2 years difference is age really doesn't matter when their expected arrival is about 6-7 years after 1st. draft age.
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And the fact there is only 1 starting goalie and they can play for 10 years once they make it.
We just need to hit on 1 guy.
 
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