Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

[SprDaVE]

From Kyle Cushman

It's far too early to focus on, but Joseph Woll is going to force some interesting goaltending decisions this summer.

He's now 17-2-0 with a .934 SV% across the NHL and AHL this year. Two years left with a cap hit under league minimum and requires waivers starting in 2023-24.

I really do hope they find a way to dispose of Murray, extend Samsanov and run Sammy and Woll next year. Would need an experienced backup as well.

It's definitely too early to make any sort definitive decision here. Seems like the most obvious move is to just get rid of Murray in some way. With 1 year remaining and playing decently well this year, there will be interest for sure.

But Samsonov's contract will also play a big part here. I don't see the Leafs giving him term so if Samsonov plays hard ball, I wouldn't be surprised if they trade him either. If they can sign Samsonov for 2 or 3 years at around 3M, I think it fits and Murray is gone.

This is the McBackup vs Sparks issue all over again in a way. You always keep the young developing talent and Woll looks like a beast in the making. But goaltenders are completely voodoo and Woll could very likely regress.

 

[613Leafer]

It's way too early to make any sort of pre-emptive moves here. Seems like the most obvious move is to just get rid of Murray in some way. With 1 year remaining and playing decently well this year, there will be interest for sure.

But Samsonov's contract will also play a big part here. I don't see the Leafs giving him term so if Samsonov plays hard ball, I wouldn't be surprised if they trade him either. If they can sign Samsonov for 2 or 3 years at around 3M, I think it fits and Murray is gone.

This is the McBackup vs Sparks issue all over again in a way. You always keep the young developing talent and Woll looks like a beast in the making.

I think Samsanov-Woll is the ideal scenario for next year. Murray is too injury prone to reliably be part of the plans, and we can't realistically afford Murray at 4.5M and Samsanov on his new contract (which let's say will probably be 3.5-4.5M).

I think you go Samsanov-Woll, with someone with NHL experience on the AHL team. If things go really poorly, you address it before next years deadline.

 

[SprDaVE]

I think Samsanov-Woll is the ideal scenario for next year. Murray is too injury prone to reliably be part of the plans, and we can't realistically afford Murray at 4.5M and Samsanov on his new contract (which let's say will probably be 3.5-4.5M).

I think you go Samsanov-Woll, with someone with NHL experience on the AHL team. If things go really poorly, you address it before next years deadline.

I agree for the most part. I just think things change fast and a Murray-Woll tandem could work out if Samsonov doesn't. If the Leafs get lucky, maybe Woll turns into a bonafide #1 and Murray is not a bad veteran to have for just 1 year as opposed to Samsonov over multiple seasons. Goaltenders are so hard to predict so nothing would surprise me.

Petruzzelli is likely going to be the #3 next year with a new #4. McKay will probably be the defacto #5 on his AHL contract but he's not exactly excelling in his rookie season. Hildeby has 1 more SHL season to go and I don't think the Leafs mind if he plays #1 over there.

 

[justashadowof]

Woll is doing exactly what we hope for every goaltending prospect. The waivers exemption expires after this season. He's on the NHL roster next season permanently and getting a significant number of starts. IMO Matt Murray is a viable buyout contract. The cap cost of buying him out is a minor cap hit of $687K for 23/24 and a larger $2M cap hit in 24/25. Maybe another organization can buy him out for a small price.

 

[4thline]

I agree for the most part. I just think things change fast and a Murray-Woll tandem could work out if Samsonov doesn't. If the Leafs get lucky, maybe Woll turns into a bonafide #1 and Murray is not a bad veteran to have.

Petruzzelli is likely going to be the #3 next year.

I'm in the same boat. Some flexibility
If Sammy hasn't convinced us that he's a "true starter" rather than a tandem guy, but wants to be paid as one, and has another team willing to pay him as one, (and us for the right to do so)- you have to look at the exit and run back Murray.

That's a lot of ducks to line up though

 

[SprDaVE]

Side note, heck of a turn around season for the Marlies. There's the AHL trade deadline tomorrow so I hope they can bolster the team a bit. They lost a lot of firepower because of the NHL deals.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Side note, heck of a turn around season for the Marlies. There's the AHL trade deadline tomorrow so I hope they can bolster the team a bit. They lost a lot of firepower because of the NHL deals.

Who are we going to move though? We don't really have much to give up on an AHL deal, short of maybe a guy like Hoefenmayer, who can return an offensive player who can replace a guy like Gaudette or Anderson. Shaw is obviously not going anywhere and moving Blandisi is counter productive if we need offense.

Hoefenmayer may leave next year and we should have ample defensive options to use for the playoffs (Benn, Kral, Kokkonen, Niemela, Rifai, Villeneuve, Hollowell/Mete/Dahlstrom if they return from injury and some ECHLers that have been decent fill ins like Miller)... so it could make sense to move him. Same could go for Rifai. However, he is also huge for the offense on the back end.

Offensively, Ovchinnikov should be joining soon since his team is down 3-1 in the KHL playoffs, but he is unlikely going to be any kind of factor, nevermind a top 9 guy who can put up offense. Hirvonen is another guy but who knows how he does.

Seems like the route to go is either trust what we have or get some guys from the NCAA on AHL deals and see if they can contribute right away. Holmberg and Steeves will probably continue to get games too, but I don't see them playing 4 games in 4 days.

 

[SprDaVE]

Who are we going to move though? We don't really have much to give up on an AHL deal, short of maybe a guy like Hoefenmayer, who can return an offensive player who can replace a guy like Gaudette or Anderson. Shaw is obviously not going anywhere and moving Blandisi is counter productive if we need offense.

Hoefenmayer may leave next year and we should have ample defensive options to use for the playoffs (Benn, Kral, Kokkonen, Niemela, Rifai, Villeneuve, Hollowell/Mete/Dahlstrom if they return from injury and some ECHLers that have been decent fill ins like Miller)... so it could make sense to move him. Same could go for Rifai. However, he is also huge for the offense on the back end.

Offensively, Ovchinnikov should be joining soon since his team is down 3-1 in the KHL playoffs, but he is unlikely going to be any kind of factor, nevermind a top 9 guy who can put up offense. Hirvonen is another guy but who knows how he does.

Seems like the route to go is either trust what we have or get some guys from the NCAA on AHL deals and see if they can contribute right away. Holmberg and Steeves will probably continue to get games too, but I don't see them playing 4 games in 4 days.

I don't know but there's always some AHL level deals to be had for future considerations. AHL trade deadline is vastly different for sure. I'm confident they can find find something that works in improving the team. They are at the veteran limit already, so it further complicates things.

Any depth additions will likely improve a bit to a lot since they are using a lot of ECHL level depth at this time, especially upfront.

 

[tmlfan98]

Any injury updates on Bobby McMann? Would imagine if he was healthy he would be up with the team right now instead of Steeves.

I guess the Marlies are a vault for injury info/updates?

 

[TMLAM34]

I think Samsanov-Woll is the ideal scenario for next year. Murray is too injury prone to reliably be part of the plans, and we can't realistically afford Murray at 4.5M and Samsanov on his new contract (which let's say will probably be 3.5-4.5M).

I think you go Samsanov-Woll, with someone with NHL experience on the AHL team. If things go really poorly, you address it before next years deadline.

I agree for the most part. The only way I see Murray on this roster next year is if he goes on some magical run in the playoffs and we win the Stanley Cup.

Otherwise for cap purposes, I definitely see a Samsonov - Woll tandem next year. Which I’m more than okay with.

 

[Machinae]

Woll is doing exactly what we hope for every goaltending prospect. The waivers exemption expires after this season. He's on the NHL roster next season permanently and getting a significant number of starts. IMO Matt Murray is a viable buyout contract. The cap cost of buying him out is a minor cap hit of $687K for 23/24 and a larger $2M cap hit in 24/25. Maybe another organization can buy him out for a small price.

The Leafs were given a 3rd to take Murray for 2 years, why would it cost more than a 3rd to get someone else to take him next year? He's only proven to be good when healthy.

 

[sxvnert]

I think Samsanov-Woll is the ideal scenario for next year.

Its probably why Dubas kept those 1st rounders. To dump yet another goaltending mistake.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Its probably why Dubas kept those 1st rounders. To dump yet another goaltending mistake.

huh. Murray has an above average SV% and one year left on his retained deal. Thinking he would cost a 1st to move is actual lunacy.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't know but there's always some AHL level deals to be had for future considerations. AHL trade deadline is vastly different for sure. I'm confident they can find find something that works in improving the team. They are at the veteran limit already, so it further complicates things.

Any depth additions will likely improve a bit to a lot since they are using a lot of ECHL level depth at this time, especially upfront.

I think a lot of those future considerations trades are guys who are stuck on the depth chart and moved to teams where they can play more. I doubt the Marlies are dumping anyone since the Growlers could use anyone the Marlies don't need, and the Marlies have enough depth guys themselves. Not too many FC guys are any more AHL caliber than the ECHL guys we are using right now.

I think this Sunday is when the non-tournament NCAA teams have their seasons end. A few weaker teams are done already, but I don't think anyone from there is helping us. Swankler for Bowling Green is probably the only forward who will attract any kind of attention out of the current group, and he may not even leave the NCAA this year.

But next week we should start seeing the first wave of guys and maybe the Marlies can find some help, either in the form of future ELCs, ATOs, or AHL contracts that can help. On top of hoping Ovchinnikov can be better than the ECHL guys we are putting out there, since he should be able to come over relatively soon too.

 

[Fogelhund]

Who are we going to move though? We don't really have much to give up on an AHL deal, short of maybe a guy like Hoefenmayer, who can return an offensive player who can replace a guy like Gaudette or Anderson. Shaw is obviously not going anywhere and moving Blandisi is counter productive if we need offense.

Hoefenmayer may leave next year and we should have ample defensive options to use for the playoffs (Benn, Kral, Kokkonen, Niemela, Rifai, Villeneuve, Hollowell/Mete/Dahlstrom if they return from injury and some ECHLers that have been decent fill ins like Miller)... so it could make sense to move him. Same could go for Rifai. However, he is also huge for the offense on the back end.

Offensively, Ovchinnikov should be joining soon since his team is down 3-1 in the KHL playoffs, but he is unlikely going to be any kind of factor, nevermind a top 9 guy who can put up offense. Hirvonen is another guy but who knows how he does.

Seems like the route to go is either trust what we have or get some guys from the NCAA on AHL deals and see if they can contribute right away. Holmberg and Steeves will probably continue to get games too, but I don't see them playing 4 games in 4 days.

Let me be honest, and say I don't know how this works completely.. but what I do notice, is that most of the top AHL offensive guys, are on NHL contracts. We are at 49 contracts, with needing one for Knies. I don't really see a path to trading any of those 49 guys at this point... If we were at 47 or 48, I can see a team trading an expiring contract for future considerations.. just to get them off the payroll... like Carcone in the Coyotes franchise. But, we don't have the contract space to do that.

 

[kb]

Its probably why Dubas kept those 1st rounders. To dump yet another goaltending mistake.

Trying this crap again, eh?

Murray will not need anything of the sort.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Its probably why Dubas kept those 1st rounders. To dump yet another goaltending mistake.

Murray is 11-6-2 with a .908 sv% and came here with a 3rd and 7th round pick attached to him. We gave up nothing in the deal. That 3rd rounder was used in the O'Rielly + Acciari deal. Where exactly is the problem?

 

[WTFMAN99]

The Leafs were given a 3rd to take Murray for 2 years, why would it cost more than a 3rd to get someone else to take him next year? He's only proven to be good when healthy.

I think Murray has seen his stock increase a bit to the point where he's not a dump but likely a minimal return.

Carolina maybe could be interested in Murray as both Raanta/Andersen are leaving and only the young Russian kid signed for cheap. 3rd-5th rounder most likely.

 

[aingefan]

It's definitely too early to make any sort definitive decision here. Seems like the most obvious move is to just get rid of Murray in some way. With 1 year remaining and playing decently well this year, there will be interest for sure.

But Samsonov's contract will also play a big part here. I don't see the Leafs giving him term so if Samsonov plays hard ball, I wouldn't be surprised if they trade him either. If they can sign Samsonov for 2 or 3 years at around 3M, I think it fits and Murray is gone.

This is the McBackup vs Sparks issue all over again in a way. You always keep the young developing talent and Woll looks like a beast in the making. But goaltenders are completely voodoo and Woll could very likely regress.

Indeed. It’s possible he’s having *his year*.
Interesting that Sammy has one year before UFA. They could keep him for the lone RFA year and revisit, or go up to 2 years before Woll is up and then revisit.

 

[Fogelhund]

After more digging, I did find some guys on AHL contracts. Grimaldi was recently traded, on a AHL contract, just as I suggested, for future considerations....

Chris Terry plays for Bridgeport... they are "just" outside of the playoffs, so maybe they won't make a move...

I don't know anything about this guy... Gage Quinney... 39 points in 51 games... most points by someone on an expiring AHL deal, with a team solidly out of the playoffs.. Gage Quinney at eliteprospects.com

He is the only player, on an expiring AHL contract, in the top 100 for AHL scoring.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think Murray has seen his stock increase a bit to the point where he's not a dump but likely a minimal return.

Carolina maybe could be interested in Murray as both Raanta/Andersen are leaving and only the young Russian kid signed for cheap. 3rd-5th rounder most likely.

San Jose and Chicago as rebuilding teams may have interest

Flyers might too.

 

[Thornbury]

Let me be honest, and say I don't know how this works completely.. but what I do notice, is that most of the top AHL offensive guys, are on NHL contracts. We are at 49 contracts, with needing one for Knies. I don't really see a path to trading any of those 49 guys at this point... If we were at 47 or 48, I can see a team trading an expiring contract for future considerations.. just to get them off the payroll... like Carcone in the Coyotes franchise. But, we don't have the contract space to do that.

I'm not sure how the rule works with regard to signing players to contracts for next season. Whether you can go above 50 contracts for a period in the off season. Also not sure how many of the current 49 contracts expire at the end of this season to give us open slots.

 

[aingefan]

Worth pointing out McMann will be 27 by the start of next season. He's the same age as Nylander and a year older than Matthews/Marner.

Steeves/Abruzzese/Holmberg will all be in their 24YO seasons as well so while pro (or NA pro for Holmberg) experience is limited for them they need to show they belong. Although I'd say Holmberg has shown he's capable as a bottom 6 player.

Agreed, nows a good time for the youth on the team to ‘put up’. May be a case of opportunity again if the minimal cap increase floods the botto of the market.
Might be worth offering McMann a guaranteed extension.
I can see Holmberg securing a 3rd line job, McMann and Steeves being fine complementary wingers, maybe even spreading out and rolling four lines consistently early in the year.
Matthews Marner plus
Tavares Lafferty plus
Nylander Jarnkrok plus
O’Reilly Acciari plus

San Jose and Chicago as rebuilding teams may have interest

Flyers might too.

Any team who goes into FA needing a goalie, really.
Can do a lot worse than Murray on a one year deal.

 

[WTFMAN99]

San Jose and Chicago as rebuilding teams may have interest

Flyers might too.

The only issue is the NTC.

 

[Fogelhund]

The only issue is the NTC.

and $8 mil in salary... It's a 10 team NTC... so it shouldn't be too prohibitive. We've helped revive his game, and brand some, you'd think he'd be accommodating if necessary.