Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART III

[4thline]

Of course there is always that risk with NCAA prospects, I just cannot see that happening to be honest. He is already 22 years old and in his sophomore season. It would be almost career suicide for him to finish his full 4 years in NCAA to become UFA. Which is how I believe that works, someone can vet me on that.

Doesn't have to play 4 seasons, just be 4 years post draft and graduate. So it's either sign with the Marlies for 2022, or sign wherever he wants 2023. In both cases (barring any end of year burning on our part) he's an RFA for 2024 due to being 24 for signing the hypothetical UDFA ELC. (22 and 23 year old signing age =2 years, 24 = 1)

If he has any inkling of external interest (especially if it comes with performance bonuses and a free-er shot at a roster spot, that and a Harvard degree is a more tempting option than you're giving it credit for

 

[stickty111]

Hawkey was released from his PTO so hopefully it's good news that Woll is okay.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Doesn't have to play 4 seasons, just be 4 years post draft and graduate. So it's either sign with the Marlies for 2022, or sign wherever he wants 2023. In both cases (barring any end of year burning on our part) he's an RFA for 2024 due to being 24 for signing the hypothetical UDFA ELC. (22 and 23 year old signing age =2 years, 24 = 1)

If he has any inkling of external interest (especially if it comes with performance bonuses and a free-er shot at a roster spot, that and a Harvard degree is a more tempting option than you're giving it credit for

I am not sure I totally understood what you were explaining, but I think I got the most important piece. Sign before the start of 2022 season or he is free to sign as a UFA thereafter as he would have 4 years post draft after his junior season at Harvard? He was a double over-ager when we drafted him if I am not mistaken. Which again, if he intends to get that piece of paper from Harvard that would see him as a 25 year old graduate. Not exactly ideal for him to then sign an ELC and begin his pro career. Sure he could play his junior year and then walk himself to UFA, but realistically that still leaves him degreeless and behind the 8-Ball from a professional standpoint. I just don't see it happening for those reasons alone

Usually good NCAA programs have a lifetime scholarship to allow their drafted talent the ability to pursue their career in hockey. Its part of the recruiting of these players. If you want the talented players, reputable schools are not going to be afraid to offer that as part of their signing agreements. Nick more then likely will have the ability to fall back on the pursuit of further education later. If he has any aspirations of playing pro, he would sign at the end of this season. Clock is kind of ticking for him unfortunately.

I donno, I totally get the apprehension one might have with him potentially walking to UFA, I just really don't. Sure drafting in the NCAA is a relatively new thing for the Leafs historically speaking, but when was the last time a notable player was lost in this fashion for us?? I could be drawing a complete blank on this, but the only player I can recall is J.D Greenway? Dakota Joshua?

If anything I feel like we are usually on the winning end of these type of defectors.

 

[4thline]

I am not sure I totally understood what you were explaining, but I think I got the most important piece. Sign before the start of 2022 season or he is free to sign as a UFA thereafter as he would have 4 years post draft after his junior season at Harvard? He was a double over-ager when we drafted him if I am not mistaken. Which again, if he intends to get that piece of paper from Harvard that would see him as a 25 year old graduate. Not exactly ideal for him to then sign an ELC and begin his pro career. Sure he could play his junior year and then walk himself to UFA, but realistically that still leaves him degreeless and behind the 8-Ball from a professional standpoint. I just don't see it happening for those reasons alone

I'm assuming he didn't twiddle his thumbs while recovering from surgery and is one credit year from graduating. He redshirted from hockey last season, that doesn't mean he didn't take classes.

Scenario A
Signs with Leafs This summer
2022- almost certainly a Marlie, max signing bonus, no performance bonus ~130k earnings
2023-dogfight to make the Leafs, max earnings ~900k if he does
2024 RFA

Goes UFA
2022- Harvard (gets degree)
2023- hypotherical handpicked program with guaranteed icetime and atleast schedule A bonuses ~1.7m if structured favourably and he performs
2024- RFA

He's an RFA in 2024 in either scenario because this season his ELC would be signing age 23 and be 2 years, if he signed next year at signing age 24 would be one year.

Of course, this is only relevant if both he and atleast one other NHL team devoutly believe he is a top 6 player in 2023 AND he's willing to give up a guaranteed ELC to risk sitting the year. But if he has a "loud" olympics and back half of season...

 

[Twine Tickler]

I'm assuming he didn't twiddle his thumbs while recovering from surgery and is one credit year from graduating. He redshirted from hockey last season, that doesn't mean he didn't take classes.

Scenario A
Signs with Leafs This summer
2022- almost certainly a Marlie, max signing bonus, no performance bonus ~80k earnings
2023-dogfight to make the Leafs, max earnings ~900k if he does
2024 RFA

Goes UFA
2022- Harvard (gets degree)
2023- hypotherical handpicked program with guaranteed icetime and atleast schedule A bonuses ~1.7m if structured favourably and he performs
2024- RFA

He's an RFA in 2024 in either scenario because this season his ELC would be signing age 23 and be 2 years, if he signed next year at signing age 24 and be one year.

Of course, this is only relevant if both he and atleast one other NHL team devoutly believe he is a top 6 player in 2023 AND he's willing to give up a guaranteed ELC to risk sitting the year. But if he has a "loud" olympics and back half of season...

Got it, this makes more sense to why it may be more appealing for him to wait. Thanks!

And yes, I don't know why I would have thought he didn't take classes last year lol. He likely graduates in 2023 which would make the appeal to stick around a little bit more enticing.

I still have faith in our management to get a deal done if that's something we end up wanting to do at the end of year. We may appear to be a hard roster to crack but the reality of it is this is one of the more ideal places for him to sign. We need cheap 2 way contracts more than almost anyone else in the league. The opportunity to play could be there as early as next year if he plays and trains well.

I am not trying to say other GM's don't lay the ground work for their players, but I really do believe Kyle makes it very well known what his intentions with the player is, and outlines what trajectory he sees fit. All of the times he's been willing to move players to seek better opportunities is just part of that ground work that should provide Nick comfort in signing here. Of course that could all change with another 1st round exit and a subsequent Kyle Dubas departure, but the fact he has personally gone to Harvard to watch Nick would suggest he believes strongly in Nick. I am sure part of his visit involved potential future plans, and if he even hinted at returning as a junior I am sure Kyle would feel less apprehensive about including him in any future trades.

Still don't think it will come to that personally, but I appreciate you laying out the 2 scenarios. Definitely not as cut and dry as I once thought

 

[Maplebeasts]

Just popping in to say Filip Kral has been incredible and I think he deserves a cup of coffee post trade deadline. I'd easily move Holl, promote Liljegren and let Kral rotate in for the occasional game over Dermott.

 

[Apex Predator]

Just popping in to say Filip Kral has been incredible and I think he deserves a cup of coffee post trade deadline. I'd easily move Holl, promote Liljegren and let Kral rotate in for the occasional game over Dermott.

I think this is the last season with Dermott. I see Dubas trading him for a chance somewhere else.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I think this is the last season with Dermott. I see Dubas trading him for a chance somewhere else.

It seems likely to me. Unfortunately for Dermott he crushes bottom pairing assignments but hasn't been able to improve to the point where he does the same on the second pairing. He's a good candidate to move.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I only think Dermott would be moved in a trade as a package for an upgrade elsewhere on the roster otherwise or Dubas lands another top 4 d-man and somehow keeps Lily and Sandin.. Otherwise he'll probably stay .. signed through next year at a $1.5 mill cap hit is extremely valuable depth for a guy that can excel on the third pairing. Some defensemen can take some years to mature and Dermott has barely started hitting his prime.

 

[D00bis]

Some defensemen can take some years to mature and Dermott has barely started hitting his prime.

Dermott is 25 he is in his prime I’m sorry but this is all he is. If you can’t solidify your self on the 3rd pairing where can you expect this growth to come from? I love his skating but his lack of tenacity, hockey iq and offence makes me expendable imo

 

[Kiwi]

I'm assuming he didn't twiddle his thumbs while recovering from surgery and is one credit year from graduating. He redshirted from hockey last season, that doesn't mean he didn't take classes.

Scenario A
Signs with Leafs This summer
2022- almost certainly a Marlie, max signing bonus, no performance bonus ~130k earnings
2023-dogfight to make the Leafs, max earnings ~900k if he does
2024 RFA

Goes UFA
2022- Harvard (gets degree)
2023- hypotherical handpicked program with guaranteed icetime and atleast schedule A bonuses ~1.7m if structured favourably and he performs
2024- RFA

He's an RFA in 2024 in either scenario because this season his ELC would be signing age 23 and be 2 years, if he signed next year at signing age 24 would be one year.

Of course, this is only relevant if both he and atleast one other NHL team devoutly believe he is a top 6 player in 2023 AND he's willing to give up a guaranteed ELC to risk sitting the year. But if he has a "loud" olympics and back half of season...

So be it

We can't guarantee him anything except a top class developmental environment and organization, if there's better opportunities for him elsewhere and he wants his degree there's very little we can do about it, we are going for the cup so best player plays

That's his choice to make

Just popping in to say Filip Kral has been incredible and I think he deserves a cup of coffee post trade deadline. I'd easily move Holl, promote Liljegren and let Kral rotate in for the occasional game over Dermott.

He's been great but I'd rather leave him where he is to continue dominating the AHL and get top pair minutes

If we get injuries I'd be comfortable with him playing but I'd still be careful with him

 

[BertCorbeau]

Dermott is 25 he is in his prime I’m sorry but this is all he is. If you can’t solidify your self on the 3rd pairing where can you expect this growth to come from? I love his skating but his lack of tenacity, hockey iq and offence makes me expendable imo

I'm not suggesting he'll make crazy steps into the top 4 and be beast, but you're wrong in writing a 25 year old off that he is what he is. Holl broke into the league at 25. Lots of d-man solidly their game in their late 20's as they mature.

But at the end of the day the Leafs have a reliable bottom pairing defender signed for $1.5 million next season, with control beyond that. That's incredibly valuable for a team that wants to contend.

He's not untouchable and could be moved should an upgrade come available but there's no reason to just move on from him.

 

[Morgs]

Steeves in some good company here

 

[Kiwi]

Steeves in some good company here

As good as you could have hoped for when we grabbed him as a free wallet

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hawkey was released from his PTO so hopefully it's good news that Woll is okay.

Or Scott is ready. I'd take that too.

I think if neither were ready, Petruzzelli or Hutch would be on the roster by now.

 

[uncleben]

Or Scott is ready. I'd take that too.

I think if neither were ready, Petruzzelli or Hutch would be on the roster by now.

Hutch was sent down from taxi

 

[Thornbury]

Dermott is 25 he is in his prime I’m sorry but this is all he is. If you can’t solidify your self on the 3rd pairing where can you expect this growth to come from? I love his skating but his lack of tenacity, hockey iq and offence makes me expendable imo

I'd like to see one of Holl or Dermott moved to get a Bogosian like defender for the playoff run. They both have value, with one more year left on their contracts at a reasonable cost.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Steeves in some good company here

I had no clue what to expect from Steeves when we picked him up last year. But man has he been a great addition to the organization.

he's pretty well penciled into the 2022-23 roster already IMO, and realistically could see time if injuries occur late in the season and/or playoffs.

I think I was expecting a Christian Hanson like impact instead of a Tyler Bozak like impact. I don't know if it was because of the Notre Dame connection between Hanson and Steeves, but needless to say I really didn't have a lot of hope for him TBH. But he has done absolutely nothing but impress this year, from Dev camp until now. Seems like just a matter of time before he is in the show TBH

 

[LeafChief]

I had no clue what to expect from Steeves when we picked him up last year. But man has he been a great addition to the organization.

he's pretty well penciled into the 2022-23 roster already IMO, and realistically could see time if injuries occur late in the season and/or playoffs.

I think I was expecting a Christian Hanson like impact instead of a Tyler Bozak like impact. I don't know if it was because of the Notre Dame connection between Hanson and Steeves, but needless to say I really didn't have a lot of hope for him TBH. But he has done absolutely nothing but impress this year, from Dev camp until now. Seems like just a matter of time before he is in the show TBH

I'd really love to see him get a shot with Kampf-Kase at some point (if we have more injuries/COVID scares). He played a few games with the Leafs but I believe he was on the 4th line. He's got blazing speed and a great shot. We may have something with this kid.

 

[hockeynorth]

saw someone do this the other day so I'll take my shot at it

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]#[/TD][TD]LW[/TD][TD]C[/TD][TD]RW[/TD][TD]LD[/TD][TD]RD[/TD][TD]G[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1[/TD][TD]Amirov[/TD][TD]Abramov[/TD][TD]Malgin[/TD][TD]Kral[/TD][TD]Niemela[/TD][TD]Woll[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2[/TD][TD]Knies[/TD][TD]Holmberg[/TD][TD]J. Anderson[/TD][TD]Kokkonen[/TD][TD]Villeneuve[/TD][TD]Kallgren[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3[/TD][TD]Robertson[/TD][TD]Hirvonen[/TD][TD]Tverberg[/TD][TD]Koster[/TD][TD]Duszak[/TD][TD]Petruzelli*[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4[/TD][TD]Steeves[/TD][TD]Abruzzese[/TD][TD]Miettinen[/TD][TD]Rubins[/TD][TD]Hollowell[/TD][TD]Scott[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5[/TD][TD]Voit[/TD][TD]SDA[/TD][TD]Miller[/TD][TD]Krys[/TD][TD]Menell[/TD][TD]Ahktyamov[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Gogolev, Kressler, Ovchinnikov, Fusco, Rindell, Peksa would be next at their positions.

Some observations:
- Our D prospects are very old for prospects, not many that look like legitimate NHL threats, it's worse than I thought there
- G depth is better than I thought (because it's my list I get to include Petruzelli), likely to get at least one NHL G from there IMO
- RW is kind of shallow as far as ceiling goes, but I like their floors
- LW is stacked
- C isn't that bad since Voit/Tverberg/Steeves could all potentially move to the middle
- LD looks like somewhere we will definitely get a bottom pair D from

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I'd like to see one of Holl or Dermott moved to get a Bogosian like defender for the playoff run. They both have value, with one more year left on their contracts at a reasonable cost.

you'd like to trade for a worse defenseman?

I get wanting to add that type of player but there should be depth guys available that fit that mold at the deadline that won't cost you one of those guys.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Just popping in to say Filip Kral has been incredible and I think he deserves a cup of coffee post trade deadline. I'd easily move Holl, promote Liljegren and let Kral rotate in for the occasional game over Dermott.

Kral and Niemela look like they could be pushing down the door a little sooner than expected.

I would not mind one bit starting next season with this D-core out of camp with some Biega/Dahlstrom depth signings:

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Sandin-Niemela
Kral

Ideally they play well as a group and when Muzzin/Brodie are up you only have to worry about one spot on the right side.

 

[LeafChief]

saw someone do this the other day so I'll take my shot at it

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]#[/TD][TD]LW[/TD][TD]C[/TD][TD]RW[/TD][TD]LD[/TD][TD]RD[/TD][TD]G[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1[/TD][TD]Amirov[/TD][TD]Abramov[/TD][TD]Malgin[/TD][TD]Kral[/TD][TD]Niemela[/TD][TD]Woll[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2[/TD][TD]Knies[/TD][TD]Holmberg[/TD][TD]J. Anderson[/TD][TD]Kokkonen[/TD][TD]Villeneuve[/TD][TD]Kallgren[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3[/TD][TD]Robertson[/TD][TD]Hirvonen[/TD][TD]Tverberg[/TD][TD]Koster[/TD][TD]Duszak[/TD][TD]Petruzelli*[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4[/TD][TD]Steeves[/TD][TD]Abruzzese[/TD][TD]Miettinen[/TD][TD]Rubins[/TD][TD]Hollowell[/TD][TD]Scott[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5[/TD][TD]Voit[/TD][TD]SDA[/TD][TD]Miller[/TD][TD]Krys[/TD][TD]Menell[/TD][TD]Ahktyamov[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Gogolev, Kressler, Ovchinnikov, Fusco, Rindell, Peksa would be next at their positions.

Some observations:
- Our D prospects are very old for prospects, not many that look like legitimate NHL threats, it's worse than I thought there
- G depth is better than I thought (because it's my list I get to include Petruzelli), likely to get at least one NHL G from there IMO
- RW is kind of shallow as far as ceiling goes, but I like their floors
- LW is stacked
- C isn't that bad since Voit/Tverberg/Steeves could all potentially move to the middle
- LD looks like somewhere we will definitely get a bottom pair D from

I like this. Good job.

Hopefully we draft a C with our 1st rounder this year. We could desperately use it. Also hopefully adding Jack McBain to this list. Probably would instantly become our most NHL ready centre prospect.

 

[hockeynorth]

I like this. Good job.

Hopefully we draft a C with our 1st rounder this year. We could desperately use it. Also hopefully adding Jack McBain to this list. Probably would instantly become our most NHL ready centre prospect.

I'm pretty big on Abramov, I think he'll be a good 3C but yeah for sure. McBain would also be nice but I feel good about the odds of getting a C from this draft, there's guys like Lambert, Ludwinski, Hughes, Nazar, Kasper (my favourite), McConnell-Barker, Goyette, Gaucher who could all be there

 

[Stigma]

saw someone do this the other day so I'll take my shot at it

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]#[/TD][TD]LW[/TD][TD]C[/TD][TD]RW[/TD][TD]LD[/TD][TD]RD[/TD][TD]G[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1[/TD][TD]Amirov[/TD][TD]Abramov[/TD][TD]Malgin[/TD][TD]Kral[/TD][TD]Niemela[/TD][TD]Woll[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2[/TD][TD]Knies[/TD][TD]Holmberg[/TD][TD]J. Anderson[/TD][TD]Kokkonen[/TD][TD]Villeneuve[/TD][TD]Kallgren[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3[/TD][TD]Robertson[/TD][TD]Hirvonen[/TD][TD]Tverberg[/TD][TD]Koster[/TD][TD]Duszak[/TD][TD]Petruzelli*[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4[/TD][TD]Steeves[/TD][TD]Abruzzese[/TD][TD]Miettinen[/TD][TD]Rubins[/TD][TD]Hollowell[/TD][TD]Scott[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5[/TD][TD]Voit[/TD][TD]SDA[/TD][TD]Miller[/TD][TD]Krys[/TD][TD]Menell[/TD][TD]Ahktyamov[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
Gogolev, Kressler, Ovchinnikov, Fusco, Rindell, Peksa would be next at their positions.

Some observations:
- Our D prospects are very old for prospects, not many that look like legitimate NHL threats, it's worse than I thought there
- G depth is better than I thought (because it's my list I get to include Petruzelli), likely to get at least one NHL G from there IMO
- RW is kind of shallow as far as ceiling goes, but I like their floors
- LW is stacked
- C isn't that bad since Voit/Tverberg/Steeves could all potentially move to the middle
- LD looks like somewhere we will definitely get a bottom pair D from

This is awesome. Makes thing much clearer and helps all of us who are more visual. Well done.