Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[JEI]

It's AHL protection.

I wonder if COVID is a factor also. Just as extra insurance (Canadian restrictions and what not potentially being in place next year).

 

[Twine Tickler]

Those articles are rooted in fact, but sensationalized for clicks; omitting tons of relevant info. It's what sells. But here's what's omitted....

THE U23 LAW
A law is being introduced in the Duma that mandates that players who go overseas before age 23 must compensate their team. Hahaha!...it's a token gesture unlikely to go anywhere.
But keep in mind Russian hockey families have a luxury few in this world have. Kids and their parents pay nothing ($0) in hockey costs once a kid hits 10 y.o. KHL hockey schools pay for it all. Everything, from 10 to adult.
Is it ethical for a kid to have his entire hockey education paid only to just leave at, say, 18? If teams don't receive a return on their investment do they have a right to recoup costs from the individual player?...especially if player's new N.A. team refuses to pay transfer fees?
I dunno.
But this law is fundamentally in regards to transfer agreements and compensation for assets. It's something N.A. and Russia have been at odds at for a while. But of course NHL media will portray it as "Evil Russia is now punishing players for chasing their NHL dreams!" LOL
But, again, it's unlikely this law goes anywhere.

ROTENBERG
It's crazy how he's portrayed as some conniving Darth Vader figure. The most powerful man in Russia hellbent on the destruction of the NHL!!! Sweet Jesus.
In reality Rotenberg is an arrogant, incompetent, dumbass, spoiled rich kid with grandois ideas that people roll their eyes at. The son of an oligarch. He's the dude responsible for the ridiculous Big Red Machine media campaign. Few people can stand him.

But he is influential. Like everyone he wants to keep kids in Russia but knows the NHL is the final destination for our better players.
So the objective is to keep kids home as long as possible and develop them properly for the betterment of the sport in this country. Because going to NA too early results in disaster most of the time. Especially for forwards.
The NHL will eventually get the best guys. But the NHL's "I want him now! now! now!" sense of entitlement is what is frowned upon.

To achieve this Rotenberg has turned SKA into a quasi-NTDP, drafting tons of the best kids to SKA offering the best facilities, coaching and development. Khusnutdinov just signed extension because of this. And for those likely to leave there's still a huge incentive for SKA to develop them for future National Team purposes.
And any U20 coach's roster (not just Zubov) will have a boatload of SKA kids. SKA's talent pool alone dictates this. It's kind of like CSKA back in the old Soviet days.

That said, Rotenberg hardly has full authority. He wrestles with the FHR heads. Coaching selections appear to be a compromise, with the established Federation guys having more pull lately.
But how is any of this anti-NHL? Our entire national coaching staff is comprised of NHL-friendly coaches. U20 coach Zubov still works for the Dallas of the NHL. The Senior Team coaches are Zhamnov, Fedorov, Gonchar and Nabokov; all NHL guys who are on record supporting players' NHL aspirations.
Tell again, how exactly are players being punished/coerced?...or at least more than any other country?

I hope this dispels some myths and answers some questions.

Yes I agree, the nature of the article is slightly sensationalized to generate clicks to some degree. There are also some very telling quotes from either Rotenberg or other people in the hockey world that would suggest there is cause for concern when selecting SKA players in particular. I'd even go as far as suggesting this concern could potentially extend to other KHL playing Russians from other clubs as well.

It's entirely understandable why a KHL club would want to retain their star players after all they've invested in their growth and development. Especially when you say they've paid for their entire youth hockey, which is super cool.

Unless the players are slam dunk/can't miss players that 100% eventually will come over at some point and play meaningful minutes immediately when they arrive, I just don't think they are worth a selection anymore. The fringe NHL prospects will never be swayed away from KHL money to play lower roles in the NHL or be 2-way AHL/NHL players. And certainly not on a team like Toronto that requires those role players to make next to nothing.

I also think SKA St. Petersburg and their management staff is clearly trying to make their club as appealing to their homegrown stars as any NHL teams. I would not be surprised one bit if a player like Michkov stays in Russia his entire career. He is an elite player that SKA could give the entire bag to. His presence in the KHL could drastically change the outlook for future Russians looking to make the jump. Wherein, if Matvei stays as a career KHL'er it provides more validity to a league that is already widely viewed as the second best in the world. Future players may end up following his lead. For the record, that doesn't bother me one bit. The NHL will still always appeal more to NA birthed players and most other European nations as well. So the talent pool will still be very strong in the NHL.

I really do believe there eventually will be a Russian bred superstar who pioneers that movement to stay home in the KHL. Especially when you have the leader of one of the most powerful organizations in Russia as openly pro-KHL as he is.

If the Player is not given top 6F/Top 4D TOI and top 6F/Top 4D money I think it will be very challenging for Russian players to leave what would appear to be a very good situation for them in SKA. It appears very clear by Rotenberg's quotes that if he had it his way they'd stay in Russia their entire career, and anything outside of top 6F/top 4D in the NHL they are essentially encouraged to not leave Russia. Definitely concerning for Leaf fans like myself when we select anything outside of the sure things from Russia. As I've said many times before, I'm not thrilled with Amirov's development thus far but I am also not 1 bit concerned. It's more Dmitry that I am worried about

Unlike the NHL's need for instant gradification, Russians view development as a marathon, not a sprint.
Russia takes its time to develop players. It's why a lot of youths receive few KHL minutes initially, but also why a lot of late developers come from Russia. There's no rush. Again, practice is the basis of the hockey. Practice makes perfect.


Speaking of Ovchinnikov - Cool story. In the media it talked about Sibir's coach reaction to Ovchinnikov's u20 omission.
(I'm paraphrasing) Ovchinnikov was sad, and the coach told him to look at Mikheyev for motivation. He told Dima that Mikheyev also never played at the U20 but is now in the NHL with Toronto! Keep working, keep getting better and you can achieve your objectives like Mikheyev!

Nice to hear Dmitry was upset about the snub. IMO he has every right to be upset. Who knows what will come of it, but a little chip on his shoulder wouldn't hurt that's for sure. I still find him a wildly intriguing prospect TBH. Just a great skater, and looks to be able to play at that high speed as well.

As far as I am aware we never actually lose KHL drafted players rights. So even if he doesn't get any real opportunities for the next 3 years, he could still be an option later down the road. Hopefully he practices hard enough like you suggest to continually progress his game, although I'd still prefer him see some real ice time in the near future.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I wonder if COVID is a factor also. Just as extra insurance (Canadian restrictions and what not potentially being in place next year).

I was thinking the same thing. I think in his mind, why would he leave Finland, away from friends and family only to be locked down in Toronto on the Marlies. I am sure his recent experience in Edmonton/Red Deer didn't help the case to convince him to come over to the Marlies

I'd obviously prefer him on the Marlies, but he is also getting great opportunities with Karpat. If he were getting buried on lower pairings and not being used effectively I'd be far more concerned.

 

[Twine Tickler]

on a lighter note, What about this Putin Guy @Zine??? looks like the real deal lol

7 goals wow.

wonder who has his rights

I love how he was the only one with a white bucket as well haha. Surprised it wasn't a gold or flaming bucket with that scoring touch TBH

 

[Zine]

Yes I agree, the nature of the article is slightly sensationalized to generate clicks to some degree. There are also some very telling quotes from either Rotenberg or other people in the hockey world that would suggest there is cause for concern when selecting SKA players in particular. I'd even go as far as suggesting this concern could potentially extend to other KHL playing Russians from other clubs as well.

It's entirely understandable why a KHL club would want to retain their star players after all they've invested in their growth and development. Especially when you say they've paid for their entire youth hockey, which is super cool.

Unless the players are slam dunk/can't miss players that 100% eventually will come over at some point and play meaningful minutes immediately when they arrive, I just don't think they are worth a selection anymore. The fringe NHL prospects will never be swayed away from KHL money to play lower roles in the NHL or be 2-way AHL/NHL players. And certainly not on a team like Toronto that requires those role players to make next to nothing.

I also think SKA St. Petersburg and their management staff is clearly trying to make their club as appealing to their homegrown stars as any NHL teams. I would not be surprised one bit if a player like Michkov stays in Russia his entire career. He is an elite player that SKA could give the entire bag to. His presence in the KHL could drastically change the outlook for future Russians looking to make the jump. Wherein, if Matvei stays as a career KHL'er it provides more validity to a league that is already widely viewed as the second best in the world. Future players may end up following his lead. For the record, that doesn't bother me one bit. The NHL will still always appeal more to NA birthed players and most other European nations as well. So the talent pool will still be very strong in the NHL.

I really do believe there eventually will be a Russian bred superstar who pioneers that movement to stay home in the KHL. Especially when you have the leader of one of the most powerful organizations in Russia as openly pro-KHL as he is.

If the Player is not given top 6F/Top 4D TOI and top 6F/Top 4D money I think it will be very challenging for Russian players to leave what would appear to be a very good situation for them in SKA. It appears very clear by Rotenberg's quotes that if he had it his way they'd stay in Russia their entire career, and anything outside of top 6F/top 4D in the NHL they are essentially encouraged to not leave Russia. Definitely concerning for Leaf fans like myself when we select anything outside of the sure things from Russia. As I've said many times before, I'm not thrilled with Amirov's development thus far but I am also not 1 bit concerned. It's more Dmitry that I am worried about



Nice to hear Dmitry was upset about the snub. IMO he has every right to be upset. Who knows what will come of it, but a little chip on his shoulder wouldn't hurt that's for sure. I still find him a wildly intriguing prospect TBH. Just a great skater, and looks to be able to play at that high speed as well.

As far as I am aware we never actually lose KHL drafted players rights. So even if he doesn't get any real opportunities for the next 3 years, he could still be an option later down the road. Hopefully he practices hard enough like you suggest to continually progress his game, although I'd still prefer him see some real ice time in the near future.

No way Michkov stays in the KHL. Staying would be a laughable joke.

Michkov said he signed his KHL deal to ensure his parents are set for life. Any 15/16 year old would do the same if given the immediate opportunity. Smart kid because the money is guaranteed I believe. He could get hit by a bus tomorrow, career over at 17...but financial security remains.
He can always buy-out his contract if need be anyways.

But the KHL will never rival the NHL. The money just doesn't exist anymore. Those Kovalchuk/Radulov level contracts are over.
But the KHL is a very lucrative alternative for a lot of potential NHL guys because it provides security. The NHL offers insecurity.
The NHL is insurcure because success is often predicated on opportunity, luck, coach preference, open role on a team. It's not always talent. Look at Barabanov as example. The potential of toiling in the AHL for peanuts is always around the corner. Nothing is guaranteed.
But the elite guys will always go to the NHL. They're on a different level.

 

[Zine]

on a lighter note, What about this Putin Guy @Zine??? looks like the real deal lol

7 goals wow.

wonder who has his rights

I love how he was the only one with a white bucket as well haha. Surprised it wasn't a gold or flaming bucket with that scoring touch TBH

Good lord Putin is nauseating.

Nonetheless at least its cool to have a president playing hockey. He was centering Kovalchuk and Kamensky. Kasatonov and Fetisov were on defense.

 

[Twine Tickler]

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Huge game for Woll. 45 saves to help the Marlies win.

Kyle Clifford with his first career AHL goal and first career regular season point. About time he got on the board... It's been like 11 years since he first made his AHL debut in the playoffs for the Manchester Monarchs.

The Marlies can definitely score, but 47 shots against is a major yikes.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Will he burn a year off of his ELC next year if he plays in Liga?

It's AHL protection.

Not sure Bert, I used to know this stuff but older and dumber now, I will defer to those who know.

Dave, are you suggesting it's to avoid playing in the AHL at all or in case something like covid derails the AHL? Have to imagine Topi would be in tough to transition from LIGA right to the NHL.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Huge game for Woll. 45 saves to help the Marlies win.

Kyle Clifford with his first career AHL goal and first career regular season point. About time he got on the board... It's been like 11 years since he first made his AHL debut in the playoffs for the Manchester Monarchs.

The Marlies can definitely score, but 47 shots against is a major yikes.

Let's hope his stint with the leafs really helped his game and gained some confidence to go on a big run with the Marlies.

I wonder what its going to take for the Leafs staff to fire Moore? They always look lost in their own end

 

[SprDaVE]

Not sure Bert, I used to know this stuff but older and dumber now, I will defer to those who know.

Dave, are you suggesting it's to avoid playing in the AHL at all or in case something like covid derails the AHL? Have to imagine Topi would be in tough to transition from LIGA right to the NHL.

Probably both. He won't have much of a hard time finding a job in the Liga regardless.

I'm sure he'll play with the Marlies at some point. Seems like next season Niemela would rather play in Finland than be in the AHL if he isn't ready for the NHL. Many players do that.

 

[justashadowof]

Looks like Woll had an insane game last night: stopped 45 of 47 shots.

 

[aingefan]

Steeves and Kral with a couple apples each.

And I’m hopeful for SDA, but that guy always seems to be a negative on the scoresheet.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Mocha Joe is on fire this year

 

[LeafChief]

Mocha Joe is on fire this year

Was literally just about to post about him. Weird lol.

He's putting up really great stats this year. I haven't watched so I wonder if it's as a result of playing with Fantilli who will likely be a top 5 pick in the 2023 draft.

Miller is pacing at better numbers than Abbruzzese was with the Chicago Steel in his second year. Maybe this kid could be something. He's slated to join Knies and Koster with U of Minnesota next year.

Speaking of Abbruzzese, he's now leading Harvard in points. Being one of the older players, I wonder if he gets a look for Team USA at the Olympics now.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Was literally just about to post about him. Weird lol.

He's putting up really great stats this year. I haven't watched so I wonder if it's as a result of playing with Fantilli who will likely be a top 5 pick in the 2023 draft.

Miller is pacing at better numbers than Abbruzzese was with the Chicago Steel in his second year. Maybe this kid could be something. He's slated to join Knies and Koster with U of Minnesota next year.

Speaking of Abbruzzese, he's now leading Harvard in points. Being one of the older players, I wonder if he gets a look for Team USA at the Olympics now.

Didn't Miller switch to Harvard?

 

[LeafChief]

Didn't Miller switch to Harvard?

Oh maybe - I was just going based off of what is listed on Elite Prospects.

 

[nobody]

Didn't Miller switch to Harvard?

Oh maybe - I was just going based off of what is listed on Elite Prospects.

Checks out

Also, I guess maybe this whole time what Miller really lacked was just ice time? It seems like ever since he's found his way to the top of the lineup, his offense has exploded compared to when he was played sparingly on the bottom 2 lines. Maybe the kid had it all this time and just wasn't given the opportunity.

Fantilli is the crown jewel of that team and probably going to be a top 3/5 pick in a stupidly loaded 2023 draft class but from the few times I've seen Miller play and from the Twitter clips, he never really looks out of place. Fantilli knows where to go on the ice to make himself dangerous and Miller seems very aware and capable of feeding him plays. I don't think an average Joe hockey player has those abilities and vision.

 

[Twine Tickler]

He's putting up really great stats this year. I haven't watched so I wonder if it's as a result of playing with Fantilli who will likely be a top 5 pick in the 2023 draft.

Ya there is definitely something there, but Mr. Knies Guy also tweeted this about a month ago that kind of illustrates Millers impact on Fantilli with and without him on his line:

Clearly Fantilli is the better player, and has easily more projectable NHL talent. I am not trying to insinuate otherwise. But I do think Joe Miller deserves some praise.

I remember for the longest time Connor Brown was just the guy who benefitted from McJesus. Until he put up 61 pts in his first season with the Marlies.

There is obviously a Fantilli effect with his numbers, but he is still a prospect worth our attention IMO

 

[4thline]

I remember for the longest time Connor Brown was just the guy who benefitted from McJesus. Until he put up 61 pts in his first season with the Marlies.

There is obviously a Fantilli effect with his numbers, but he is still a prospect worth our attention IMO

Too bad he hasn't had the C.Brown growth spurt. I'm the last person to discount a prospect based on size but at 5'8 150 he's basically Gaudreau 2.0 or a Marlie, with nothing inbetween

 

[Twine Tickler]

Too bad he hasn't had the C.Brown growth spurt. I'm the last person to discount a prospect based on size but at 5'8 150 he's basically Gaudreau 2.0 or a Marlie, with nothing inbetween

I agree 147 lbs is ridiculously undersized. That will be his downfall if he cannot put on some weight.

However at the end of the day we should expect some physical maturation from a late 2002 birthed kid. He's still only 19, and given that he was drafted in the 2020 draft he has likely never even been to Toronto let alone met our strength and conditioning staff

I'd imagine his playing weight in pro will be closer to 165lbs, similar to Johnny Hockey as you said.

I am still far more in favor of drafting these small skilled type of kids vs mutants with very little skill. It is far more likely that these undersized players like Voit, Miettenen, Abruzzese, and Miller physically mature to a point that they can play pro reliably vs. drafting a mutant like Rasanen, Middleton, Biggs and hope they develop a set of hands or IQ.

If you look at SDA for example, He was drafted at 155Lbs if I remember correctly. Size doesn't appear to be the issue with him anymore. He's managed to play the pro game quite fine IMO. If anything his ability to translate his skill consistently at the AHL level and eventually the next level will likely be the thing that ends up holding him back ironically.

You cannot teach skill and IQ. If they don't have it they cannot play in todays NHL period. You see far more small skill in the NHL vs. knuckle dragging mutants nowadays

 

[4thline]

I agree 147 lbs is ridiculously undersized. That will be his downfall if he cannot put on some weight.

However at the end of the day we should expect some physical maturation from a late 2002 birthed kid. He's still only 19, and given that he was drafted in the 2020 draft he has likely never even been to Toronto let alone met our strength and conditioning staff

I'd imagine his playing weight in pro will be closer to 165lbs, similar to Johnny Hockey as you said.

I am still far more in favor of drafting these small skilled type of kids vs mutants with very little skill. It is far more likely that these undersized players like Voit, Miettenen, Abruzzese, and Miller physically mature to a point that they can play pro reliably vs. drafting a mutant like Rasanen, Middleton, Biggs and hope they develop a set of hands or IQ.

If you look at SDA for example, He was drafted at 155Lbs if I remember correctly. Size doesn't appear to be the issue with him anymore. He's managed to play the pro game quite fine IMO. If anything his ability to translate his skill consistently at the AHL level and eventually the next level will likely be the thing that ends up holding him back ironically.

You cannot teach skill and IQ. If they don't have it they cannot play in todays NHL period. You see far more small skill in the NHL vs. knuckle dragging mutants nowadays

Like I said, not the guy to discount based on size, but Miller is particularly small PLUS behind the curve developmentally. Longshot of longshots.

Also going to take issue with the mutants list. Middleton was a damn good OHL defender with a solid first pass, that has seen NHL time. Personally I believe letting him go in favour of Rubins was more more about who was this management team's "guy" more than anything. And Biggs... was a better player at 19-20 (and arguably ready for a 4th line NHL shift ) than he was at 23. Something about his career just screams off-ice issues to me. There is zero (ability related) reason a Matt Martin career wasn't his floor.

 

[nobody]

Like I said, not the guy to discount based on size, but Miller is particularly small PLUS behind the curve developmentally. Longshot of longshots.

Also going to take issue with the mutants list. Middleton was a damn good OHL defender with a solid first pass, that has seen NHL time. Personally I believe letting him go in favour of Rubins was more more about who was this management team's "guy" more than anything. And Biggs... was a better player at 19-20 (and arguably ready for a 4th line NHL shift ) than he was at 23. Something about his career just screams off-ice issues to me. There is zero (ability related) reason a Matt Martin career wasn't his floor.

I think this is a pretty ridiculous statement. There's no standard development curve for players. High picks never pan out to anything and guys overlooked drafted later sometimes develop quicker. He's by no means a surefire NHLer but I think he's progressing pretty well for a prospect at his own pace.

As for Rubins, I agree that he definitely is one of those guys that Keefe/ Dubas love (similar to Holl) and him working his way up from the ECHL gives the team a bit of clout around the league with free agents because they can use him as an example. With that said Rubins is far better than Middleton was. Middleton only really took off in his last year or so in the OHL. Before that he couldn't skate or handle a puck let alone make passes. I definitely did hope that we'd give him a shot as we were so damn deprived in terms of big body shutdown type D-men and I think he should have been kept. Rubins to me however is a much better player overall and though his skating is the biggest downfall for him right now, if he can sort that out, we can have a guy that can arguably play up in the middle pair.

Tyler Biggs was a case of a shitty management team who was obsessed with size and drafted guys with limited skill and then proceeded to stuff them down in the AHL because these guys weren't lighting it up. Similar to David Broll and Brad Ross and even Jerry D'Amigo all guys who had some promise but didn't ever really put up big numbers. Unlike many of the teams around the league who would at least give the guy a one time audition in the NHL before giving up on them, the old Leafs management would just dispose of guys instead of ever giving them a chance in the NHL to show if they can at least be role players. We wasted so many assets and draft picks without ever really fully getting a chance to see what they were.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Let's hope his stint with the leafs really helped his game and gained some confidence to go on a big run with the Marlies.

I wonder what its going to take for the Leafs staff to fire Moore? They always look lost in their own end

The Marlies should be one of the best teams in the league but they consistently look like a tire fire under Moore regardless of personnel. He has to go.

 

[weems]

Looking at that Chicago Steel roster its unreal how much the size of players has changed

They have 16 players in total that are 5'10 or shorter
They have 8 players that are 5'8 or shorter
They have 3 players that are 5'6

They have 11 players that are 160lbs or lighter
They have 3 players that are 150lbs or ligher
They have 1 player that weighs just 135lbs