Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[Twine Tickler]

I don't think there are many holes at all, the weak link is MAYBE the #4 dman slot, but even then it is fine

Ya that's kind of the way I see it as well. I know there is always logic that when you are contending you have to double down and acquire someone at the deadline, I just don't know if that is something that would drastically improve our team. We are not in a position to acquire a major piece without significant retention.

Of course this can happen with 50% retention via 2 teams which effectively puts the cap hit at 25% the AAV. Similar to the Foligno deal. But that type of transaction comes at a heavy price. If we do go ahead and make that level of transaction, I'd much prefer that player to have 1 more year remaining on his deal. Of course that would require a heavier compensation for both teams retaining, but at least that gives us 2 cracks at the cup vs. a one and done. There would likely be a sticker shock on the price the Leafs would be forced to pay, but that is realistically the only way we will be able to acquire a game changing level of player IMO.

I think I am more in favor of spending higher prospects like say Robertson as well as draft capital to get that upper echelon talent on retention, vs. Hirvonen and Draft capital for a middle six forward that barely moves the needle (ie. Foligno 2.0)

It's a massive risk to part with a piece like Robertson, he has star potential. But if the return gave us 2 very healthy runs at the mug, I think that is a risk we need to take. Especially with the LW depth we have in our system (Knies, Amirov, Steeves, Holmberg)

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Makes perfect sense and I would agree about using Hirvonen as a trade chip. I'm not as high on Hirvonen as other peeps but definitely a pretty good B prospect.

I do not know anyone who is super high on him TBH. I am probably the highest and even I only have him as a good middle 6 center/winger who can contribute similar to Kerfoot.

I'd move him if the price was right, but not for a rental. He is probably the best guy I would move in a trade. I am confident in the Leafs ability to draft these guys on a semi-regular basis (Abramov, etc.).

SDA is probably the first guy I would move personally though. Unless he develops into a Kerfoot, I don't see his role with a team like the Leafs.

 

[Morgs]

Give him a chance in the KHL plz

 

[Zine]

I watched the tournament just like everyone else on here... If Abramov resembled a kid on a swing, than what exactly did the rest of that team resemble to the Russian Hockey Federation?

it was a terrible assessment at the time, and still a terrible assessment now.

I fully understand other teams make questionable decisions all the time as well, and as I stated earlier Canada is equally, if not more so guilty of this type of political shit. It's the downside of having a large pool of players to choose from. The fact that Brandt Clarke was not even invited to Team Canada camp is 10x more ridiculous than Ovchinikov not being named to Russia's camp. So it is not exclusively Russia, far from it. The fact that coincidently there were 4 drafted players who play in North America, 2 of which would have been returnee's to the tournament, and were conveniently left off of Russia's lineup for undrafted 19 YO's is a bit alarming to me. If that does not sound the alarm bells for you, I don't know what to say. I really don't think the idea of there being some hidden agenda is all that far from being possible.

for the record, those same alarm bells are ringing for most Canadians with respect to the Brandt Clarke omission. These alarm bells also ring when you have the team Canada head coach refer to 16 year old Connor Bedard as not "dynamic offensively" after putting up 4 pts in 2 games at selection camp. This old school logic of this tournament needing a style of player or this tournament being a 19 year old tournament is such a stupid way to build the roster. Select the 23 best players, and manage the roster thereafter. There is always room for 1 or 2 heart and soul guys on any team, but to leave obvious talent off the ice seems ridiculous to me.

Perhaps Canada is different? Maybe Hockey Canada micromanages everything including roster selections and coaching decisions?
At U20 in Russia everything is on the coach. The coach and his staff decide everything, and are then held accountable by Russian Hockey Federation for results.

That why I laugh when people say Zubov's roster picks (or Larionov;s usage of Abramov) is part of some grand political agenda to by the Federation punish the NA-based kids.
These coaches aren't conservative stooges. Larionov is also an agent who brings kids to North America; and Zubov is senior consultant to the Dallas Stars. The senior NT staff is Zhamnov, Gonchar, Fedorov and Nabokov.
If the Federation is rife with bias, how the hell are the NHL-friendly guys getting jobs, much less being put in positions of great influence?

Now I'm not claiming politics doesn't exist, it does everywhere. But it isn't some all-encompassing agenda driven ploy like some people say it is.


Again, people should look beyond the bubble their own worldview to fully grasp situations. When they don't (or can't), they're prone to propaganda out of sheer ignorance, or at worse, Don Cherry-like thinking to explain the world.
Unfortunately NHL media is full of this crap when it comes to Russia/KHL. One glance at twitter verifies this. I come away asking myself how many crayons have these people eaten today.

 

[Fogelhund]

 

[Zine]

Regarding Abramov --
Larionov's full quote was: "Unstable. The guy seemed to be on a swing - up and down".

Keep in mind, in interviews Larionov preached poise and self control like crazy. He detested dumb penalties.
Then Abramov goes and gets himself suspended in his 2nd game. Slew footed someone.
Maybe that was Larionov's issue from the beginning - unsteady, inconsistent self control from Abramov. Maybe he exhibited this in camp and practice.
Who knows.

 

[LeafChief]

I do not know anyone who is super high on him TBH. I am probably the highest and even I only have him as a good middle 6 center/winger who can contribute similar to Kerfoot.

I'd move him if the price was right, but not for a rental. He is probably the best guy I would move in a trade. I am confident in the Leafs ability to draft these guys on a semi-regular basis (Abramov, etc.).

SDA is probably the first guy I would move personally though. Unless he develops into a Kerfoot, I don't see his role with a team like the Leafs.

This is exactly what I said to a friend today. If Hirvonen hits his highest potential, he is probably a Kerfoot level player, just more feisty.

That could be a pretty valuable player to have. That's if he hits his potential, though.

 

[Byron Bitz]

This is exactly what I said to a friend today. If Hirvonen hits his highest potential, he is probably a Kerfoot level player, just more feisty.

That could be a pretty valuable player to have. That's if he hits his potential, though.

Kerfoot is a way better skater, I doubt Hirvonen becomes a regular NHLer, hope I’m wrong

 

[Twine Tickler]

Give him a chance in the KHL plz

Dmitry is a very intriguing player to me. I know the Leafs like him as well as he is one of only 3 players that Kyle Dubas has traded up in the draft to acquire in his tenure (Holmberg, Ovchinikov, Tverberg)

I know it's extremely uncommon for fringe Russian prospects to make the jump to NA and play in the coast or AHL, but I really wonder if there is anything the Leafs can do with Dmitry to make this more appealing. Even if it were SDA, Micheyev, or Nik Antropov personally reaching out to him and helping him transition to North American lifestyle. Someone needs to sell that as an option IMO. I can imagine the transition from Russia to NA must be terrible, especially if you don't speak English. But If we can do anything to make that easier or more appealing I really think we have to try. We are wasting crucial years of his development IMO.

I know he is still very much a long shot in terms on NHL success, but he will never make it to the NHL if he continues to "develop" in Sibir's system IMO. Maybe next year will be different, but I really don't have high hopes that things will change.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Kerfoot is a way better skater, I doubt Hirvonen becomes a regular NHLer, hope I’m wrong

Hirvonen is more refined everywhere else though. His skating can, and already has, improved. And I think he is more likely to be able to stick as a grinder.

The thing is that Holmberg is very similar in many regards.

 

[LeafChief]

Dmitry is a very intriguing player to me. I know the Leafs like him as well as he is one of only 3 players that Kyle Dubas has traded up in the draft to acquire in his tenure (Holmberg, Ovchinikov, Tverberg)

I know it's extremely uncommon for fringe Russian prospects to make the jump to NA and play in the coast or AHL, but I really wonder if there is anything the Leafs can do with Dmitry to make this more appealing. Even if it were SDA, Micheyev, or Nik Antropov personally reaching out to him and helping him transition to North American lifestyle. Someone needs to sell that as an option IMO. I can imagine the transition from Russia to NA must be terrible, especially if you don't speak English. But If we can do anything to make that easier or more appealing I really think we have to try. We are wasting crucial years of his development IMO.

I know he is still very much a long shot in terms on NHL success, but he will never make it to the NHL if he continues to "develop" in Sibir's system IMO. Maybe next year will be different, but I really don't have high hopes that things will change.

We have a few Russians with the Marlies in Abramov and SDA. Maybe that would be enticing. I agree he is a long shot but I'd love to see him come to NA.

 

[nuck]

Kerfoot is a way better skater, I doubt Hirvonen becomes a regular NHLer, hope I’m wrong

Hirvonen is a pretty good skater, you will see at the WJ unless he has gotten slower trying to bulk up. His size and his pure offense are against him now but I could see him in an NHL lineup in a couple of years. Really looking to see how he will produce against some known quantities his own age.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Perhaps Canada is different? Maybe Hockey Canada micromanages everything including roster selections and coaching decisions?
At U20 in Russia everything is on the coach. The coach and his staff decide everything, and are then held accountable by Russian Hockey Federation for results.

That why I laugh when people say Zubov's roster picks (or Larionov;s usage of Abramov) is part of some grand political agenda to by the Federation punish the NA-based kids.
These coaches aren't conservative stooges. Larionov is also an agent who brings kids to North America; and Zubov is senior consultant to the Dallas Stars. The senior NT staff is Zhamnov, Gonchar, Fedorov and Nabokov.
If the Federation is rife with bias, how the hell are the NHL-friendly guys getting jobs, much less being put in positions of great influence?

Now I'm not claiming politics doesn't exist, it does everywhere. But it isn't some all-encompassing agenda driven ploy like some people say it is.


Again, people should look beyond the bubble their own worldview to fully grasp situations. When they don't (or can't), they're prone to propaganda out of sheer ignorance, or at worse, Don Cherry-like thinking to explain the world.
Unfortunately NHL media is full of this crap when it comes to Russia/KHL. One glance at twitter verifies this. I come away asking myself how many crayons have these people eaten today.

Trust me, I have never claimed to know more about Russia or Russian hockey than you. I've even gone as far as saying that in this very thread. I've even admitted that that there is potentially a level of ignorance to how I am perceiving this development of drafted Russian players (page 11, if you need reference). This has nothing to do with not being able to look beyond my bubble or not being worldly. I live in one of the more multicultural cities on the planet, and have travelled extensively. I know beyond my own back yard.

I am looking at how historically NHL drafted prospects from Russia in rounds 4-7 are conveniently not developing to the same degree as undrafted players in the same situation. In fact, there are more current undrafted Russians in the NHL then there are players that were drafted in rounds 4 through 7 combined. I broke that down earlier in this thread as well. Is it not possible that undrafted Russians are given a better development path and better opportunities than those who had NHL affiliations? Maybe their KHL clubs felt like they had a better chance at retaining the Undrafted player with no affiliation vs. the one with an affiliation? Seems pretty logical to me. It's also a logic I've said many times I fully understand.

There will always inherently be a self-serving agenda for the KHL club with respect to how they use NHL drafted Russians. Again, developing our prospects is not going to be a priority in that agenda. The non-interference agreement between the 2 leagues further complicates the matter. Wherein the player must honor their valid, still-active contracts in full before transferring to the other league. Without a mutually terminated deal that is, which does happen on occasion.

This Non-interference agreement is not in place for any other league in the world to my understanding. Which gives the player the entire control on their career path at all times. So when a fringe prospect like Ovchinikov gets burried like he is, and is offered big bucks by a KHL club regardless of results, there is little to no chance the NHL club could entice that player to come to NA and develop in their system. They will never be able to match the money they will make, and they cannot provide the comforts of home to the player. But above all else, the NHL club cannot guarantee the player NHL time because they've not seen what he is fully capable of in the KHL based on little to no TOI. Conversely, the player themselves may think they can't make the NHL because they can't even make the KHL roster.

My viewpoints on this matter are not as close minded as you are insinuating. I am well aware of the success stories from Russian development. But the motives behind the way these clubs operate is highly suspicious IMO.

My attempts to draw parallels between the KHL motives and RHF is definitely the most "hot takey" thing I have said for sure. It's probably unfair. As you said there is plenty of NHL influence on staff. I don't know how much I believe it's entirely their call on who makes the team or not, but I will defer to your knowledge on this one.

 

[Morgs]

Dmitry is a very intriguing player to me. I know the Leafs like him as well as he is one of only 3 players that Kyle Dubas has traded up in the draft to acquire in his tenure (Holmberg, Ovchinikov, Tverberg)

I know it's extremely uncommon for fringe Russian prospects to make the jump to NA and play in the coast or AHL, but I really wonder if there is anything the Leafs can do with Dmitry to make this more appealing. Even if it were SDA, Micheyev, or Nik Antropov personally reaching out to him and helping him transition to North American lifestyle. Someone needs to sell that as an option IMO. I can imagine the transition from Russia to NA must be terrible, especially if you don't speak English. But If we can do anything to make that easier or more appealing I really think we have to try. We are wasting crucial years of his development IMO.

I know he is still very much a long shot in terms on NHL success, but he will never make it to the NHL if he continues to "develop" in Sibir's system IMO. Maybe next year will be different, but I really don't have high hopes that things will change.

I have no idea what his contract status is right now with Sibir. Him coming over isn't essential, but he needs to either play some non-MHL minutes in some other organization or Sibir needs to play him at least 4th line minutes. I knew this was going to be a waste year, but it's way harder to deal with it than I thought lol.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I have no idea what his contract status is right now with Sibir. Him coming over isn't essential, but he needs to either play some non-MHL minutes in some other organization or Sibir needs to play him at least 4th line minutes. I knew this was going to be a waste year, but it's way harder to deal with it than I thought lol.

Sibir has a VHL team. That is where Yegor Spiridonov is playing right now.

I guess they don't think he is good enough to play there either?

 

[stickty111]

Sibir has a VHL team. That is where Yegor Spiridonov is playing right now.

I guess they don't think he is good enough to play there either?

No he's good enough. Sibir is just clueless and thats not a first time for them.

 

[stickty111]

Give him a chance in the KHL plz

Yeah he's good enough to at least get a regular 4th line role in the KHL. It's too bad the organization doesn't know what it's doing.

 

[stickty111]

And of course Kokkonen with a 2 assist game. I don't know what to think of him.

 

[nobody]

And of course Kokkonen with a 2 assist game. I don't know what to think of him.

I think he's going to be an NHL player one day. Just not sure if it's going to be for us.

 

[Morgs]

Sibir has a VHL team. That is where Yegor Spiridonov is playing right now.

I guess they don't think he is good enough to play there either?

It's an affiliate. They don't own the team, another team lets them use it.

As one poster put when I asked about it last year: "It's like getting sent to Siberia". The VHL affiliate is over 2,700km away. They only send guys they don't care about there.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It's an affiliate. They don't own the team, another team lets them use it.

As one poster put when I asked about it last year: "It's like getting sent to Siberia". The VHL affiliate is over 2,700km away. They only send guys they don't care about there.

Most teams work like that. Same goes with the NHL/AHL.

I don't see how constantly benching a guy shows they care any more about him either? They aren't using him, so why do they care if he is 2000km away? At least he would be playing and developing. They haven't had issues sending other prospects/young players to the VHL in the past, and they have even sent them to unaffiliated VHL teams that are geographically closer to them as well.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

And of course Kokkonen with a 2 assist game. I don't know what to think of him.

There's not much to think about. He's an extremely reliable defensive player who moves the puck efficiently. Liiga has always been a low scoring league, where most goals are generated off the cycle. We saw it briefly last year when he joined the Marlies what he can do when his teammates can score off the rush. He's going to pick up a lot more points than anyone ever expected of him just because of this.

 

[Knies iT]

This is exactly what I said to a friend today. If Hirvonen hits his highest potential, he is probably a Kerfoot level player, just more feisty.

That could be a pretty valuable player to have. That's if he hits his potential, though.

I think his ceiling is considerably higher than a Kerfoot. He has more goal scoring potential than his Liiga stats suggest, as we saw in the WJSS (over GPG) and last WJC. He lives around the net and that translates better in the NHL than European leagues.

Statistically he's pacing similarly to a Hoglander, albeit in a slightly worse league. Both had strong WJC showings. If his foot speed was better he'd have considerably higher potential but that will hold him back.

I agree he is the most logical prospect trade chip in a substantial deal though because of the depth in his range (Holmberg, Steeves, Tverberg, etc.). He's a high floor type and I envision him being a strong 3rd liner in a realistic scenario unless his skating takes off.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

where my ryan o'connell stans at?!?

 

[Zine]

Trust me, I have never claimed to know more about Russia or Russian hockey than you. I've even gone as far as saying that in this very thread. I've even admitted that that there is potentially a level of ignorance to how I am perceiving this development of drafted Russian players (page 11, if you need reference). This has nothing to do with not being able to look beyond my bubble or not being worldly. I live in one of the more multicultural cities on the planet, and have travelled extensively. I know beyond my own back yard.

I am looking at how historically NHL drafted prospects from Russia in rounds 4-7 are conveniently not developing to the same degree as undrafted players in the same situation. In fact, there are more current undrafted Russians in the NHL then there are players that were drafted in rounds 4 through 7 combined. I broke that down earlier in this thread as well. Is it not possible that undrafted Russians are given a better development path and better opportunities than those who had NHL affiliations? Maybe their KHL clubs felt like they had a better chance at retaining the Undrafted player with no affiliation vs. the one with an affiliation? Seems pretty logical to me. It's also a logic I've said many times I fully understand.

There will always inherently be a self-serving agenda for the KHL club with respect to how they use NHL drafted Russians. Again, developing our prospects is not going to be a priority in that agenda. The non-interference agreement between the 2 leagues further complicates the matter. Wherein the player must honor their valid, still-active contracts in full before transferring to the other league. Without a mutually terminated deal that is, which does happen on occasion.

This Non-interference agreement is not in place for any other league in the world to my understanding. Which gives the player the entire control on their career path at all times. So when a fringe prospect like Ovchinikov gets burried like he is, and is offered big bucks by a KHL club regardless of results, there is little to no chance the NHL club could entice that player to come to NA and develop in their system. They will never be able to match the money they will make, and they cannot provide the comforts of home to the player. But above all else, the NHL club cannot guarantee the player NHL time because they've not seen what he is fully capable of in the KHL based on little to no TOI. Conversely, the player themselves may think they can't make the NHL because they can't even make the KHL roster.

My viewpoints on this matter are not as close minded as you are insinuating. I am well aware of the success stories from Russian development. But the motives behind the way these clubs operate is highly suspicious IMO.

My attempts to draw parallels between the KHL motives and RHF is definitely the most "hot takey" thing I have said for sure. It's probably unfair. As you said there is plenty of NHL influence on staff. I don't know how much I believe it's entirely their call on who makes the team or not, but I will defer to your knowledge on this one.

The answer is very easy....


Unlike SWE, FIN, or CZE, Russia is freakin massive. NHL teams don't have the resources to thoroughly scout it. Shit, it took the Russian Ice Hockey Federation nearly 20 years to implement a cohesive monitoring system after the country collapsed when USSR fell. And you think individual NHL teams have the resources for this?

It's no secret that later round Russians are considered gambles more than any other country; because:
a. the KHL is a very lucrative alternative to NHL
b. players aren't scouted as heavily.

This leads to some ridiculous draft choices. I mean, good lord, NHL teams were taking MHL back-up goalies over some really talented players this past draft. It's freakin hilarious.

It would go against the law of averages if the few (as they say in USA) 'home run' later round picks weren't overtaken by many late developers who come from a massive talent pool of under-scouted undrafted talent.