Don Waddell does have a chance to look like a genius if he plays Kotkaniemi on the wing and he succeeds. He however has a chance to make Bergevin look like a genius by letting him go as well if he doesn’t show any growth. This is a move that can only be judged with time given the age of Kotkaniemi.
yup... risk/reward.
i tend to think evaluating trades needs to happen at the time of the trade/signing et. So many variables can affect the subsequent success or failure of a player, or team, that all hindsight-based takes are less about the decision at the time and more about evaluating how it turned out.
in this case, from the Canes POV, i think it's a pretty good move. The risk is that JKO makes no progression this year and plays hardball with the QO so that they have to either walk away, or pay an inlfated premium for him a second year in a row, which would have negative effects on both their cap situation and their other RFA negotiations. But, if he struggles and he's willing to sign a "bridge" or performance-related next RFA deal with them at a number much closer to his actual level of play... then it's still solid for them. JKO doesn't need to shine this year.
the reward is that either this year, or in the next 2-3 years, JKO takes a big step forward and establishes himself as a quality top-6 or top-line caliber performer. at the cost of what is likely to be a late 1st and late 3rd, that is great value for them.
For the habs... it was a bad situation. A loss at the time of the move. That we salvaged it a bit by making an ok (though not without risk) move for a player that is sure to be a solid middle 6 C, with some potential to be an elite 2C and maybe even a quality top-line caliber, lessens the risk and the overall negative impact of the blunder... but even if we take the two moves together, we're left with JKO+2nd for Dvorak + 3rd... not great asset management today, with 50/50 that hindsight comes out in our favor on that scale.
MB continues to show a very poor ability to roster build and manage assets. That so many of his enthusiast are still, 10 years in, talking about how he's "learning" and how "THIS time, if it doesn't work out"... does show that his biggest ability in the role is in spin and excuse-making that, amazingly, keeps working on some... maestro indeed.
