Blue Jays Discussion: Manoah gets the Halladay treatment (optioned to rookie-ball to try and fix him)

[Discoverer]

Why did I think Kloffenstein was 25 or something. 22 and putting numbers like that in AA, makes him a legit prospect.

Given the way his last few years have gone, this has completely come out of nowhere. It's pretty great to see him figuring things out after completely falling off the map... hopefully he can keep it up.

 

[canucksfan]

Kloffenstein's performance has been very suprising and he could be finally reaching his projected upside.

View attachment 709831

Sounds like he is sitting around 92-93 and touching 95.

 

[phillipmike]

Who are baseball's top young stars? Ranking the best players at every age from 16 to 25

We identify the biggest stars by birth year, from teenage phenoms to those already starring in the majors.

www.espn.com

Kirk, Vladdy, Tiedemann and Barriera made the list.

But of note, looks like we know who our top IFA signing will be;

I'll cut it off at five here since it's getting very speculative. Holliday is tracking like a first-round pick and has had a ton of visibility, as he batted next to his brother Jackson last spring with every scouting department in baseball checking in. Blanco (likely signing with the Blue Jays), Hurtado (Nationals) and Joseph (Mariners) are the best of the younger players in the next signing class, while Pena (Mets) is arguably the top player in the next class after that. There are more international players with seven-figure deals even further back than this, but I chose to cut things off here.

 

[canucksfan]

Who are baseball's top young stars? Ranking the best players at every age from 16 to 25

We identify the biggest stars by birth year, from teenage phenoms to those already starring in the majors.

www.espn.com

Kirk, Vladdy, Tiedemann and Barriera made the list.

But of note, looks like we know who our top IFA signing will be;

Great to see the Jays still getting top IFA signings.

Looks like Beltre is having a nice season in Dunedin so far.

 

[Hoverhand]

Why did I think Kloffenstein was 25 or something. 22 and putting numbers like that in AA, makes him a legit prospect.

He's 22??? Wow covid really did screw up everyone's perception of time.

I share the sentiments of others in this thread. I had already moved him to the back of my mind. Glad to see him dealing again.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't understand the "it's just left field" argument. A run saved is a run saved, and he's been elite in LF and when filling in in CF.

I'm not following your point. It's well established and self-evident that defense at certain positions (ie. CF, SS, C) is more important than others (ie corner of).

And he’ll be the starting CF following this year. He’s really only an LFer at the moment because the Kiermaier signing has worked out tremendously thus far.

Right now I'm hoping that we bring KK back next season. We'll be needing to spend money on outfielders regardless.

 

[Suntouchable13]

When Jano runs into one, it goes a long way. It looked like the ball just exploded off his bat last night.

 

[ShaneFalco]

What has happened to Espinal?

 

[Discoverer]

I'm not following your point. It's well established and self-evident that defense at certain positions (ie. CF, SS, C) is more important than others (ie corner of).


Right now I'm hoping that we bring KK back next season. We'll be needing to spend money on outfielders regardless.

I understand that, but you said it as if his defense isn't really that valuable because he plays LF. Whether he's a +15 defender in LF or a +10 in CF, he's providing the team with elite defense that has made a huge difference over what they had last year.

 

[Kurtz]

I understand that, but you said it as if his defense isn't really that valuable because he plays LF. Whether he's a +15 defender in LF or a +10 in CF, he's providing the team with elite defense that has made a huge difference over what they had last year.

...but he won't be able to be a +15 defender in LF, that's the whole point. You need to play a premium defensive position to accrue positive defensive value to that extent.

 

[Discoverer]

...but he won't be able to be a +15 defender in LF, that's the whole point. You need to play a premium defensive position to accrue positive defensive value to that extent.

I'm talking about runs saved, not defensive value as a component of WAR.

But also, Varsho is on pace to play just as many innings in CF as he did last year when his total defensive value was +17. That includes his 175 innings as a catcher, but the poor defensive metrics there negate most of that positional value. If you remove his time behind the plate, he was probably around a +15 DEF OF in less than a full season with similar usage to this year.

In Gurriel's last three years in Toronto, he had a 115 wRC+. I'm hopeful, but I don't know if Varsho will match that. But even if he doesn't, he probably as about a 2 WAR headstart just from his defense and baserunning.

 

[Eyedea]

Right now I'm hoping that we bring KK back next season. We'll be needing to spend money on outfielders regardless.

KK's quickly become a fan favourite but he's also entering qualifying offer territory. Not sure I'm into paying him his final contract.

Also some of the "non-prospects" have been performing well in Buffalo and have taken reps in LF. Horwitz, Clement, Schneider, Eden. Wonder if Clement gets a look soon with the way his bat has been heating up.

 

[Kurtz]

I'm talking about runs saved, not defensive value as a component of WAR.

But also, Varsho is on pace to play just as many innings in CF as he did last year when his total defensive value was +17. That includes his 175 innings as a catcher, but the poor defensive metrics there negate most of that positional value. If you remove his time behind the plate, he was probably around a +15 DEF OF in less than a full season with similar usage to this year.

In Gurriel's last three years in Toronto, he had a 115 wRC+. I'm hopeful, but I don't know if Varsho will match that. But even if he doesn't, he probably as about a 2 WAR headstart just from his defense and baserunning.

Yes, and the same metric that shows that he was +17 defensively last year shows that he's negative -0.2 defensively this year.

So either he's completely fallen apart as a defender, or this is a pretty clear example of the effect of positional value. I think we can all agree that it's the latter.

Thus again, he just has significantly less value to the team playing primarily in LF. And I think my point stands - given the choice between a bad defensive LF who OPS .929 vs a good defensive LF who OPS .676, anyone would easily choose the latter.

 

[Kurtz]

KK's quickly become a fan favourite but he's also entering qualifying offer territory. Not sure I'm into paying him his final contract.

Also some of the "non-prospects" have been performing well in Buffalo and have taken reps in LF. Horwitz, Clement, Schneider, Eden. Wonder if Clement gets a look soon with the way his bat has been heating up.

Going by this front office's MO, I could definitely see us bringing back KK and cannot see us bringing back Chapman.

Speculating here obviously, but given his age, KK will probably get a 2 year deal at maybe $15m/year. Chapman will get 5-6 years at around $25/year.

Given everything we've seen from this mgmt group, they have a voracious appetite for deals like the former, and absolutely no taste for deals like the latter.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yes, and the same metric that shows that he was +17 defensively last year shows that he's negative -0.2 defensively this year.

So either he's completely fallen apart as a defender, or this is a pretty clear example of the effect of positional value. I think we can all agree that it's the latter.

Thus again, he just has significantly less value to the team playing primarily in LF. And I think my point stands - given the choice between a bad defensive LF who OPS .929 vs a good defensive LF who OPS .676, anyone would easily choose the latter.

But Gurriel has never been a .929OPS hitter. He came close in 2020 while playing his home games in a minor league park.

He's a notoriously streaky hitter who happens to be on a hot stretch.

 

[Kurtz]

But Gurriel has never been a .929OPS hitter. He came close in 2020 while playing his home games in a minor league park.

He's a notoriously streaky hitter who happens to be on a hot stretch.

He's a .929 hitter currently.

Again, we won't know who won the deal for months, maybe years. But if we are evaluating the deal right now, which was what the original post was all about, then yeah it was a devastatingly bad trade for us.

 

[Emerica]

You really should try learning a bit about baseball. It's a really fun game.

Maybe try looking at more than batting average because it sure seems like that's the only thing you care about. Like... what do you think of a hitter with a .340 OBP and a .400 SLG?

@shaner89 when someone tells him stats other than batting avg matter:

 

[GoonieFace]

He's a .929 hitter currently.

Again, we won't know who won the deal for months, maybe years. But if we are evaluating the deal right now, which was what the original post was all about, then yeah it was a devastatingly bad trade for us.

Not sure why we are even including Gurriel while evaluating the trade. I doubt he had any trade value whatsoever, and was a throw in. Having Kirk and Jansen, it made sense to deal Moreno, regardless of what he turns into

 

[Eyedea]

Going by this front office's MO, I could definitely see us bringing back KK and cannot see us bringing back Chapman.

Speculating here obviously, but given his age, KK will probably get a 2 year deal at maybe $15m/year. Chapman will get 5-6 years at around $25/year.

Given everything we've seen from this mgmt group, they have a voracious appetite for deals like the former, and absolutely no taste for deals like the latter.

Not sure I agree with this. Having absolutely no taste for deals like Chapman's is inaccurate when they've signed Springer and Gausman in free agency. I can see them not signing Chapman, but they could just as easily fill that hole with another premier signing. They've already accomplished that with the Ray/Gausman swap. On the flip side of things, they also didn't bring back Stripling and went and got Bassitt (who declined a QO) at a significantly higher price point and at an additional year. This may have been their MO pre-Ryu when the Jays weren't competitive but I don't think that's how they're operating currently.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He's a .929 hitter currently.

Again, we won't know who won the deal for months, maybe years. But if we are evaluating the deal right now, which was what the original post was all about, then yeah it was a devastatingly bad trade for us.

Well that just seems dumb lol you recognize that we can't make an evaluation on the trade for months/years and then come to the conclusion in the next sentence that the trade is devastatingly bad 6 weeks into the season.

Going by this front office's MO, I could definitely see us bringing back KK and cannot see us bringing back Chapman.

Speculating here obviously, but given his age, KK will probably get a 2 year deal at maybe $15m/year. Chapman will get 5-6 years at around $25/year.

Given everything we've seen from this mgmt group, they have a voracious appetite for deals like the former, and absolutely no taste for deals like the latter.

Have you just checked out during the off seasons the last 3 years? How is this perception that the front office won't spend money still out there lol that said Chapman likely is still gone.

 

[Discoverer]

Yes, and the same metric that shows that he was +17 defensively last year shows that he's negative -0.2 defensively this year.

So either he's completely fallen apart as a defender, or this is a pretty clear example of the effect of positional value. I think we can all agree that it's the latter.

Thus again, he just has significantly less value to the team playing primarily in LF. And I think my point stands - given the choice between a bad defensive LF who OPS .929 vs a good defensive LF who OPS .676, anyone would easily choose the latter.

There's a change in the positional adjustment because he's not catching now, but an equally large part of is that his defensive metrics (at least the ones used by Fangraphs - DRS still loves him) have been just average. Whether that will continue or is just a tiny sample size thing, I have no idea, but I think he's looked great.

And yeah, I would take Gurriel over Varsho based solely on what they've done in the first 25% of the season. I don't think that should be controversial. And I would have loved to keep Gurriel when the trade happened because he would have been a great fit to platoon, but I also didn't care that much because Varsho is a much, much better player. Refusing to pull the trigger because they wouldn't give up one year of Gurriel would have been dumb. The only thing that matters in evaluating the trade is what Moreno and Varsho do, and, like you said, that will take years to know.

 

[Bjindaho]

There's a change in the positional adjustment because he's not catching now, but an equally large part of is that his defensive metrics (at least the ones used by Fangraphs - DRS still loves him) have been just average. Whether that will continue or is just a tiny sample size thing, I have no idea, but I think he's looked great.

And yeah, I would take Gurriel over Varsho based solely on what they've done in the first 25% of the season. I don't think that should be controversial. And I would have loved to keep Gurriel when the trade happened because he would have been a great fit to platoon, but I also didn't care that much because Varsho is a much, much better player. Refusing to pull the trigger because they wouldn't give up one year of Gurriel would have been dumb. The only thing that matters in evaluating the trade is what Moreno and Varsho do, and, like you said, that will take years to know.

You do realize that our asymmetrical ballpark is delivering one heck of a wallop to Varsho and Springer's defensive metrics by UZR? Springer has a 0 DRS (23rd) and is the 28th best RF in baseball by UZR while Varsho has 5 (1st) and is 21st? Kiermaier is 1st across the board, but CF is far closer to symmetrical.

Gurriel has more HR this month than he hit all of last year. And he has been streaky his whole career. I'm not taking guy who with his hot streak has a .817OPS for his career, who can't play a position defensively, and who is out of contract in a few months over a guy who is 3 years younger, is a stellar defender, and has a .729OPS (while being in a slump).

I'm okay with the opinion that we might regret trading Moreno if he pans out (versus one of the other two catchers), but Gurriel Jr was unplayable when he wasn't on a hot streak.

 

[Kurtz]

Well that just seems dumb lol you recognize that we can't make an evaluation on the trade for months/years and then come to the conclusion in the next sentence that the trade is devastatingly bad 6 weeks into the season.


Have you just checked out during the off seasons the last 3 years? How is this perception that the front office won't spend money still out there lol that said Chapman likely is still gone.

Dude, you either have reading comprehension issues or you haven't followed the thread. The original reply was to a person who suggested that right now the Varsho trade looks fine. Right now, it does not look fine.

And no one has suggested that this front office won't spend money. They just have a certain predilection for contract lengths (with Springer and Ryu being the lone exceptions).

 

[Kurtz]

You do realize that our asymmetrical ballpark is delivering one heck of a wallop to Varsho and Springer's defensive metrics by UZR? Springer has a 0 DRS (23rd) and is the 28th best RF in baseball by UZR while Varsho has 5 (1st) and is 21st? Kiermaier is 1st across the board, but CF is far closer to symmetrical.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by this? We've had a road-heavy schedule, so is your insinuation that our OF design will naturally have devastating effects to the defensive value of our LF? Why and how? And do Varsho's defensive metrics in left vary substantially in home games vs road?

By the way, as I pointed out in the offseason, while I wanted us to sign KK, having both him and Varsho in the OF is not optimal as that is almost too much range. KK's range when Teo and Gurriel were here would have been invaluable, but with 2 rangy corners, it's not quite as impactful.

In short, KK's taking outs away from Varsho, which is probably part of the reason Varsho is showing up as a negative value defender. (just my hypothesis, I haven't the numbers to back this up).

 

[MS]

I loved Gurriel, but his history was that he'd go on a 150 OPS+ run for 2-3 months and then regress back to a league average hitter who was atrocious defensively (or start horrifically and finish hot). He's one of the streakiest hitters in baseball and is on a heater right now. If he has a ~.930 OPS at the end of the season I'll eat my hat.