Management Thread | Who needs draft picks Edition

[4th line culture]

The idea that if we tank hard now we’ll be fine in 2-3 years is super optimistic. We would need to hit on a lot it picks for that to be true.

it’s weird to think that one would have more certainty with amateur scouting than pro scouting. Amateur scouting is like x degree less certain than pro scouting.

There is a reason why zero teams have rebuild in 2 seasons.

What team has had success without hitting on a lot of picks?

 

[racerjoe]

What team has had success without hitting on a lot of picks?

The Canucks have hit on Demko, Hughes and Petey...

 

[MS]

The twins at age 32, was a lot different then Hughes and Petey at 24/25.

I see this repeated a lot, and it's just an exceptional false equivalency to say that because it was a bad idea for the worst management in NHL history to try building around two 35 y/o players in steep decline that it's a bad idea for better management to try building around one of the better young cores in the NHL.

The other one is 'they've been doing the same thing for 10 years!' and no they haven't. We tried keeping an old dead core alive for several years, accidentally accumulated some high picks in the process, and then for 1 offseason (2019) kind of built around those young players by adding Miller (good) and Myers (bad) and it actually worked fairly well for one year. Then absolutely no more building around the young core happened beecause they were bit in the ass by all the dumb deals they signed 2015-2018 and spent the 2020 offseason being gutted and the 2021 offseason converting those bad contracts into OEL in the worst deal in the NHL in the last decade.

Very little building around this core has actually happened. It's mostly just been dealing with Jim Benning's mess while the core rots on the vine.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

I'll also maintain that a re-tool in 2014 would have worked had it been executed properly.

Don't screw up the Virtanen pick, don't lose patience on McCann, don't target the wrong Ducks defender, and don't pointlessly blow money on a goalie and you're looking at a 2016-era Canucks team with a core of Horvat/McCann/Nylander/Boeser/Shea Theodore/Tanev ... with the Sedins in a support role and, more importantly, $20M in cap space to bring in another impact piece or two.

 

[MS]

It simply isnt the right time to be moving high picks for help-now players.

Nearly every expert and analyst is saying this. Its only HF Boards that seems to see things on a higher level.

This is what I profoundly disagree with. This is *absolutely* the time to be making moves like this.

We have a set of very good young players. We have another maybe 2 years to make something happen with this group. Either you aggressively back these players and try to open a window for them to be legitimately competitive or we should be trading them right now at maximum value (which no team would ever do with this kind of asset). And if it doesn't work, then you trade all of Pettersson/Hughes/Demko/Hronek in 2025 and kickstart a full rebuild. You've lost 2 years and after we've already lost 10 ... whatever.

But the media and this entire board seems to think the super ultimate best thing to do is to sit on our star players and hoard 2nd and 3rd round draft picks and then somehow magically profit when those picks do nothing to help the current core, and then be left doing the full blow-up in 2025 anyway when those guys force their way out. It makes zero sense and seems to be based on nothing more than draft pick FOMO.

 

[Ernie]

The idea that if we tank hard now we’ll be fine in 2-3 years is super optimistic. We would need to hit on a lot it picks for that to be true.

it’s weird to think that one would have more certainty with amateur scouting than pro scouting. Amateur scouting is like x degree less certain than pro scouting.

There is a reason why zero teams have rebuild in 2 seasons.

I don't see anyone arguing to tank hard. As far as I can see nobody has suggested trading Hughes or Pettersson.

What people are saying is that our cap situation is a mess and it's going to take some time to clean that up, and the team needs to acquire assets to field a truly competitive team. A couple of players picked high in this draft would likely have been able compete in a couple of years. Instead the team will burn what assets remain to field a very mediocre team.

 

[Raistlin]

I'll also maintain that a re-tool in 2014 would have worked had it been executed properly.

Don't screw up the Virtanen pick, don't lose patience on McCann, don't target the wrong Ducks defender, and don't pointlessly blow money on a goalie and you're looking at a 2016-era Canucks team with a core of Horvat/McCann/Nylander/Boeser/Shea Theodore/Tanev ... with the Sedins in a support role and, more importantly, $20M in cap space to bring in another impact piece or two.

I maintained that it came down to one bad pick. If instead of Juolevi, we picked our RHD in McAvoy. let him marinate with BU until '18

thats a core of EP, QH, Horvat, Demko, McAvoy

 

[4th line culture]

The Canucks have hit on Demko, Hughes and Petey...

Yes, not enough hits and no success

 

[mriswith]

Just stop with the “Petey and Hughes won’t stick around”. If the alternative is a middling team with absolutely no hope of winning, that’s not better for them. The excuse was dumb with the Sedins (who had to endure futile losing with veterans instead of losing while rebuilding, supposedly in their name), and it’s nonsense that younger players would be dead set against building a contender if the alternative is a fringe playoff team at best.

Also stop with the “picks won’t make an impact for years”. Even if true (it’s not), that logic means we should simply trade all our picks every year (and also never plant trees while we’re at it). Eventually you get to the years where the lack of a pipeline matters… like right now, for instance. We’ll need the help in a few years too.

Rebuild is also a fake argument, no one was advocating 5 years of scorched earth. The compete immediately arguments have always been chock full of dishonest polemic.

Too late now though, we're all in on the Kuzmenko contract timeline. May as well embrace it. Buy out OEL and trade this years pick if it's outside the top 8-10. 3-4 years from now is some other GM's problem.

 

[MarkMM]

This is what I profoundly disagree with. This is *absolutely* the time to be making moves like this.

We have a set of very good young players. We have another maybe 2 years to make something happen with this group. Either you aggressively back these players and try to open a window for them to be legitimately competitive or we should be trading them right now at maximum value (which no team would ever do with this kind of asset). And if it doesn't work, then you trade all of Pettersson/Hughes/Demko/Hronek in 2025 and kickstart a full rebuild. You've lost 2 years and after we've already lost 10 ... whatever.

But the media and this entire board seems to think the super ultimate best thing to do is to sit on our star players and hoard 2nd and 3rd round draft picks and then somehow magically profit when those picks do nothing to help the current core, and then be left doing the full blow-up in 2025 anyway when those guys force their way out. It makes zero sense and seems to be based on nothing more than draft pick FOMO.

For me it comes down to whether Petersson is willing to commit long-term here, and if we can move some cap this off-season (say, Boeser). I think there's enough then (especially if we get some luck like signing Livingstone) that a case can be made to build around this core.

But if Petersson won't re-sign then it'll force our hand into what could be a good opportunity, auction off Petersson, Kuzmenko, Beauvillier and maybe Hughes and/or Demko (not necessarily right away, but for the right offer sure), see if you can get out of the Miller contract, ride out OEL, Garland and Myers's contracts, and then you find yourself with a clean cap structure and a plethora of high picks and prospects and just set out for a 5 year rebuild.

 

[Cancuks]

A lot depends on where the Canucks pick. IF they somehow manage to get 1st or 2nd overall pick then I think Miller is dealt for picks before his NMC kicks in.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I'll also maintain that a re-tool in 2014 would have worked had it been executed properly.

Don't screw up the Virtanen pick, don't lose patience on McCann, don't target the wrong Ducks defender, and don't pointlessly blow money on a goalie and you're looking at a 2016-era Canucks team with a core of Horvat/McCann/Nylander/Boeser/Shea Theodore/Tanev ... with the Sedins in a support role and, more importantly, $20M in cap space to bring in another impact piece or two.

There were many mistakes under the Dim Jim era. We ought to have had some combination of Nylander/Ehlers, McCann, Forsling, Tanev, Tkachuk/Sergachev, DeBrincat, Dunn/Andersson/Siegethaler, Guenther/Sillinger, Stankoven, etc.

 

[Diogenes92]

What team has had success without hitting on a lot of picks?

In the cap era? Very few, if any.

People who want to say Pittsburgh. They had generational players in Crosby and Malkin and hit on Guentzel in the draft.

This is what I profoundly disagree with. This is *absolutely* the time to be making moves like this.

We have a set of very good young players. We have another maybe 2 years to make something happen with this group. Either you aggressively back these players and try to open a window for them to be legitimately competitive or we should be trading them right now at maximum value (which no team would ever do with this kind of asset). And if it doesn't work, then you trade all of Pettersson/Hughes/Demko/Hronek in 2025 and kickstart a full rebuild. You've lost 2 years and after we've already lost 10 ... whatever.

But the media and this entire board seems to think the super ultimate best thing to do is to sit on our star players and hoard 2nd and 3rd round draft picks and then somehow magically profit when those picks do nothing to help the current core, and then be left doing the full blow-up in 2025 anyway when those guys force their way out. It makes zero sense and seems to be based on nothing more than draft pick FOMO.

Will Petey and Hughes be in their 30s in three years? No.

If the Canucks had a couple of massive drafts and stocked up on some great talent, there would be a good chance they'd have some cost-controlled, young impact players within 2 years.

The funny thing is, if they'd committed to tanking for even just this year, they'd have a small chance at Bedard, and have Fantilli or Carlsson as consolation prizes. What's more meaningful than that for a quick turnaround?

 

[arttk]

What team has had success without hitting on a lot of picks?

I feel like this question implies that I am for trading all the picks away, I am not.

Like I think almost all the rebuilders here assume hey we can get like 20 picks in the next 2 season and we’ll hit on so many of them the we’ll be golden.

Let’s do some f***ing math here. Let’s say to get those picks we trade away Miller, Kuzmenko, Demko and let’s factor Bo in as well. That’s like 2 70+ point guys, 1 60pt guy and 1 starting goaltender. You need to hit on 4 picks just to be even. On top of that you guys are imagining that we are going to get NJ level of depth that we can contender. That’s like ok 2 more top 4 D at the very least and like 2-3 more top6 - middle 6 quality forwards. That’s like nailing 9 picks in 2 years, like not nailing as in oh we got nhl players from the draft , we are talking nailing as in like home run picks. Just for context, Dallas hit on 3 picks in one draft and that was considered one of the best draft any team did in cap era. Like even if you end up drafting that well, almost all prospects don’t hit the NHL in like their D+2 season so your rebuild is still taking longer than 2 seasons.

 

[MS]

In the cap era? Very few, if any.

People who want to say Pittsburgh. They had generational players in Crosby and Malkin and hit on Guentzel in the draft.

Will Petey and Hughes be in their 30s in three years? No.

If the Canucks had a couple of massive drafts and stocked up on some great talent, there would be a good chance they'd have some cost-controlled, young impact players within 2 years.

The funny thing is, if they'd committed to tanking for even just this year, they'd have a small chance at Bedard, and have Fantilli or Carlsson as consolation prizes. What's more meaningful than that for a quick turnaround?

They aren't staying here for 3 more years of rebuilding. All 3 of Hughes/Pettersson/Demko have already expressed unhappiness. Both Pettersson and Demko have a clear road to force themselves out if the team isn't on the right track in the next two years, and I doubt Hughes would be too far behind.

Players don't like wasting their careers in rebuilds and will leverage their way out of situations like this.

It's absolute pie in the sky to think these guys will be joining hands and signing kumbaya because the team is adding draft picks that do nothing to help the team win. If we don't make moves to compete, these guys are gone.

 

[arttk]

I don't see anyone arguing to tank hard. As far as I can see nobody has suggested trading Hughes or Pettersson.

What people are saying is that our cap situation is a mess and it's going to take some time to clean that up, and the team needs to acquire assets to field a truly competitive team. A couple of players picked high in this draft would likely have been able compete in a couple of years. Instead the team will burn what assets remain to field a very mediocre team.

Well yeah I agree, I am not too big of a fan of the Hronek trade.
I wished that they waited to the draft before making that kind of move.

Like the pick that irked me was the 2nd rounder. I would’ve rather they trade 2 3rd rounders instead of that 2nd. That 2nd rounder really really really irks me.

 

[canucksfan]

There were many mistakes under the Dim Jim era. We ought to have had some combination of Nylander/Ehlers, McCann, Forsling, Tanev, Tkachuk/Sergachev, DeBrincat, Dunn/Andersson/Siegethaler, Guenther/Sillinger, Stankoven, etc.

He f***ed up the team in so many ways. Even now, the team is still feeling the negative impacts of his tenure with Vancouver.

 

[canucksfan]

They aren't staying here for 3 more years of rebuilding. All 3 of Hughes/Pettersson/Demko have already expressed unhappiness. Both Pettersson and Demko have a clear road to force themselves out if the team isn't on the right track in the next two years, and I doubt Hughes would be too far behind.

Players don't like wasting their careers in rebuilds and will leverage their way out of situations like this.

It's absolute pie in the sky to think these guys will be joining hands and signing kumbaya because the team is adding draft picks that do nothing to help the team win. If we don't make moves to compete, these guys are gone.

If the Nucks are really bad next year again, I could easily see EP wanting out next off-season.

 

[Diogenes92]

They aren't staying here for 3 more years of rebuilding. All 3 of Hughes/Pettersson/Demko have already expressed unhappiness. Both Pettersson and Demko have a clear road to force themselves out if the team isn't on the right track in the next two years, and I doubt Hughes would be too far behind.

Players don't like wasting their careers in rebuilds and will leverage their way out of situations like this.

It's absolute pie in the sky to think these guys will be joining hands and signing kumbaya because the team is adding draft picks that do nothing to help the team win. If we don't make moves to compete, these guys are gone.

Then good riddance.

 

[kanucks25]

Then good riddance.

I see the argument (in theory) for just trading them now and jumpstarting a proper rebuild if they don't want to stick around for one, but no NHL team is ever going to operate this way.

 

[Josepho]

I'll also maintain that a re-tool in 2014 would have worked had it been executed properly.

Don't screw up the Virtanen pick, don't lose patience on McCann, don't target the wrong Ducks defender, and don't pointlessly blow money on a goalie and you're looking at a 2016-era Canucks team with a core of Horvat/McCann/Nylander/Boeser/Shea Theodore/Tanev ... with the Sedins in a support role and, more importantly, $20M in cap space to bring in another impact piece or two.

It's so weird that people act like execution wasn't the main problem of Benning's "plan". I even saw posts comparing the Hronek move to the "impatient" Gudbranson and Clendening trades, when the main problem with those trades is that the targets sucked ass. If Gudbranson actually became a top 4 player, he would either be a strong contributor or someone we could've farmed for similar assets from another team.

The 2016-2019 Sharks showed it's definitely possible to get a final push out of an agente core.

Admittedly, execution has been a problem with the new regime as well, but I've vastly preferred their targets.

 

[MS]

If the Nucks are really bad next year again, I could easily see EP wanting out next off-season.

Regardless of the team’s record even, I think he’ll want out if it isn’t clear the team is building around him.

But yeah - if the team sucks, player elected arbitration in 2024 which is an auto 1-year deal and buh-bye at the 2025 trade deadline.

 

[canuckfan75]

I would not be surprised if they traded away the 1st round pick if it is outside the top 5

anything is possible with this management group lead by chairman of hockey operations - Francesco Aquilini

 

[MS]

Then good riddance.

Saying ‘good riddance’ to two of the 5 most talented players this franchise has ever had because they want to win hockey games is beyond bizarre to me.

 

[4th line culture]

I feel like this question implies that I am for trading all the picks away, I am not.

Like I think almost all the rebuilders here assume hey we can get like 20 picks in the next 2 season and we’ll hit on so many of them the we’ll be golden.

Let’s do some f***ing math here. Let’s say to get those picks we trade away Miller, Kuzmenko, Demko and let’s factor Bo in as well. That’s like 2 70+ point guys, 1 60pt guy and 1 starting goaltender. You need to hit on 4 picks just to be even. On top of that you guys are imagining that we are going to get NJ level of depth that we can contender. That’s like ok 2 more top 4 D at the very least and like 2-3 more top6 - middle 6 quality forwards. That’s like nailing 9 picks in 2 years, like not nailing as in oh we got nhl players from the draft , we are talking nailing as in like home run picks. Just for context, Dallas hit on 3 picks in one draft and that was considered one of the best draft any team did in cap era. Like even if you end up drafting that well, almost all prospects don’t hit the NHL in like their D+2 season so your rebuild is still taking longer than 2 seasons.

"The idea that if we tank hard now we’ll be fine in 2-3 years is super optimistic. We would need to hit on a lot it picks for that to be true."
Is what you originally said. Can you name a team that has been successful without hitting on a lot of picks? Rebuild or retool you need to hit on lots of picks