Management Discussion | You can’t handle the Rebuild!

[m9]

So Bear played as a top 4 a season prior. He is being played with Hughes now. That’s a 4 no?
Dermott I guess will always be behind Hughes and OEL based on how they are paid, but even with Toronto, he seems like he was the guy flirting between 2nd and 3rd pair. So that’s how they have been used.

Do you actually think these players are good?

 

[gringo]

Benn was awful his first year here but quite good in Year 2.

I didn't mean to open up a can of worms with names like these and not every comparison works. Just to say that management should be able to find capable, 6th/7th guys for free every off-season and not trade off assets to get them. Whether a guy is 27 like MDZ was or 25/26 like Dermott and Bear makes virtually no difference.

The market for Dmen is tight so I don’t mind flipping picks that will likely turn into zilch for guys that will actually contribute in the nhl- and if they do- you may be able to flip for an asset down the road.

 

[arttk]

In a couple years, will we say "JR/Allvin buried us with JTM"?

Heck, I get the feeling that some fans are already thinking that. We really need the cap to go up by a lot just to make that one less painful.

You can’t shelter a overpaid D, there are only 6 spots. An overpaid bad D will sink a paring and create more stress for the other 5 guys.

If Miller starts to suck, you can shelter him like Calgary did with Lucic because there are 12 forward spots and last I checked, Calgary was able to ice one of the best teams in the league last year despite Lucic being ass.

Do you actually think these players are good?

Based on their play this year, they look inconsisten but they don’t look as one dimensional as the guys that were brought in previously.
You would have nights were you would think, ok can we get a coach that can get that to show up every night so that makes me feel somewhat cautiously optimistic because I know we will have a new coach next year.

 

[Hit the post]

Benn was awful his first year here but quite good in Year 2.

I didn't mean to open up a can of worms with names like these and not every comparison works. Just to say that management should be able to find capable, 6th/7th guys for free every off-season and not trade off assets to get them. Whether a guy is 27 like MDZ was or 25/26 like Dermott and Bear makes virtually no difference.

Wasn't he outplayed by a journeyman minor leaguer Fanta (who was a fraction of his cap hit?)? I don't know about quite good in year 2. I'd say more like, he didn't outright suck ass in year 2.

 

[Canucker]

Ya man, your comment was not only absurd it’s laughably absurd. How many challenged trades would Benning have made this summer? You should try to think through the logic of your comments before you make them, and especially before you double down with snarky responses.

As I said...Keep at it.

 

[Vector]

Benn was awful his first year here but quite good in Year 2.

I didn't mean to open up a can of worms with names like these and not every comparison works. Just to say that management should be able to find capable, 6th/7th guys for free every off-season and not trade off assets to get them. Whether a guy is 27 like MDZ was or 25/26 like Dermott and Bear makes virtually no difference.

Well the big difference is the room to grow and fairly recent high level play. Plus MDZ and Benn both had slightly higher cap hits at longer term commitments (3m & 2m compared to 2.2m and 1.5m). So to me the acquisition cost is fine compared to potential upside, lowered cap hits, and ability to freely walk away (not issue QOs).

Burroughs and Schenn are good depth examples, though! So I get your point.

 

[Vector]

Wasn't he outplayed by a journeyman minor leaguer Fanta (who was a fraction of his cap hit?)? I don't know about quite good in year 2. I'd say more like, he didn't outright suck ass in year 2.

He only played 31 games in his second season here and my only last memory of him is being flabbergasted that he had an NTC.

 

[arttk]

Benn was awful his first year here but quite good in Year 2.

I didn't mean to open up a can of worms with names like these and not every comparison works. Just to say that management should be able to find capable, 6th/7th guys for free every off-season and not trade off assets to get them. Whether a guy is 27 like MDZ was or 25/26 like Dermott and Bear makes virtually no difference.

Yes every GM can pluck warm bodies from UFA if they have like no standards and minimal expectations expectations.

If you want to only get D that can carry and move the puck, then that gets really expensive in the FA market or you just hope you hit on a Forsling.

 

[m9]

He only played 31 games in his second season here and my only last memory of him is being flabbergasted that he had an NTC.

31 games in the short season before he was traded at the deadline. He played well here that season.

 

[mathonwy]

New management, same unintentional tank.

It’s because the fan base can’t tolerate a rebuild and it wouldn’t be fair to the Sedins.

 

[Canucker]

It’s basically what Benning has been doing for the past 8 years, make moves like exactly what I have listed.
Like saying he would’ve signed guys like Gagner, Beagle, Del Zotto isn’t hypothetical because it happened every single year he was here.
Saying he would throw in a pick and deplete our picks pick is something that happened every single year, remember how we don’t have our 2nd last draft and the 9th OA?
Saying he would re-up an expiring free agent that he acquired with what we they asked for is something that happened every single year, remember how he gave Pearson 3.25 because the agent said so?

To pretend any of the stuff I said it’s just pure hypothetical is to pretend that Benning doesn’t operate with remarkable consistency.

How are we better today. Let’s start with the farm. The farm is actually functional, we have an influx of young kids that are actually getting developed. We see reports about kids like Klimovich, Karlsson making observable improvements. If you don’t think that matters that you are just wrong. Everything starts by having a strong dev system.

Second, majority of the players he brought in actually follows some kind of consistent logic. They said they want faster and tougher players. Kuz, Mik, Joshua, Stud all fits in the mold. They said they want a mobile defense, well Bear and Dermott fits that. So you can at least see that they can get players based on some kind of vision.
You don’t replace the whole roster with players in one off-season but at least you can see oh they know a style they want and they are consistent in acquiring players that will get them towards achieving it. That’s why I can see myself waiting till this off-season because I want to see if they can replace all the misfits in this roster with pieces that perhaps are lower skipped but can actually have characteristics they want and end up at a spot where the sum of the parts are greater. I don’t know if they will do it but there is something there that points to perhaps they can do it.

Those two things are like complete opposite to what Benning did. The farm was an afterthought. Benning said he wants faster, tougher and more skilled and managed to get slower players that was soft or faster players that had no skills. The reason why the team is a mess right now is because Benning just brought in “real good” players that had completely different characteristics with zero vision.

The roster is in transition and the fact that we still have a bunch of guys that are essentially misfits, the transition is going to be rough. Never mind they haven’t gone out to get a guy they want to run the system they want in the style they want.

The farm is only "better" because they demoted guys who used to be developing in the NHL (although rather poorly)...last year they had a pretty strong farm team as well...this isn't some new revelation.

Listen, I'm not going to defend Jim Benning for a second but the lengths you are going to praise the current group is a bridge too far for me...I can give credit where credit is due, they convinced Kuzmenko to sign in Van....great. Mikheyev? Don't really care about him. Joshua? Run of the mill depth player. Same as Studnicka, Bear and Dermott...these are replacement level players, not some unearthed gems. I don't see a tangible plan in effect here, and there has been no tangible benefit to this team, other than the simple fact Benning is no longer employed.

 

[credulous]

Hi sir this you?

i clearly meant the trade was as bad, not that dermott was as bad as pedan

 

[arttk]

The farm is only "better" because they demoted guys who used to be developing in the NHL (although rather poorly)...last year they had a pretty strong farm team as well...this isn't some new revelation.

Listen, I'm not going to defend Jim Benning for a second but the lengths you are going to praise the current group is a bridge too far for me...I can give credit where credit is due, they convinced Kuzmenko to sign in Van....great. Mikheyev? Don't really care about him. Joshua? Run of the mill depth player. Same as Studnicka, Bear and Dermott...these are replacement level players, not some unearthed gems. I don't see a tangible plan in effect here, and there has been no tangible benefit to this team, other than the simple fact Benning is no longer employed.

Uhhh let’s see, the AHL team playing better is a good thing. Winning environment helps development. On top of that, if you go and check the Abby thread, Klimovich, Karlsson, Lockwood are all taking steps and improved. Hell it even sounds like Woo is improving as well as he has been stagnating for the past several seasons. We haven’t had an environment where you hear actual prospects improving since we had the Moose as our farm team.
Last year’s team was awful for development. You don’t remember our prospects getting benched because development wasn’t as important for reasons.

What is happening in the A right now is what all of us has been hoping to see for years.

I don’t see myself as praising them, it’s more like, there are some stuff here and because of that I don’t mind waiting till this off-season when more data point comes in to make a more informed decision. I don’t understand why you guys feel like waiting 6 months before deciding is such a travesty. Do you think you can make enough noise to convince the owner to fire Allvin and JR within 6 months?

 

[arttk]

i clearly meant the trade was as bad, not that dermott was as bad as pedan

You compared a Pedan trade to Dermott/ Bear. You compared a trade where we spent a 3rd / 5th to get 2 players with 200+ games NHL experience vs A trade where we spent a 3rd for a unwanted prospect that played a grand total of like 15 NHL games and said they are similar.

So tell me how are they similar? You seem to have a broad definition of “awful” and that getting a NHL player is just as awful as getting a guy that is barely a AHL player.

 

[MS]

Well first off, they have hundreds of games of NHL experience and played on some fairly decent NHL teams rather than languishing in the AHL. That’s a big distinction. As mentioned, the assets traded for them were also much less significant than what Benning offered.

They also appear to be better on both the eye test and statistically.

Yes agreed on the Dickinson trade, the trade involved a 2nd for Stillman as well as freeing up $1.3 mill in cap space for the next two seasons. That was the point I was making. I agree with @MS ’s take on it, Stillman probably wasn’t the focal point of the trade but probably saw him as defensive depth that could have had some upside and this obviously was incorrect.

Yes. This discussion is f***ing bizarre.

The hardest step in a player's development is being able to stick permanently in the NHL and show they can compete in this league. There are lots of good AHL players who can play a couple games in the NHL. There are comparatively very few who can make that next step.

Every single player of this type that Benning acquired was a guy approaching or past waiver eligibility who had never shown that they could play at the NHL level or stuck in the league more than ever-so-briefly, and none of them ever stuck in the NHL again after leaving Vancouver. Vey, Baertschi, Granlund, Pouliot. Etem, Pedan. All just not NHL players and never were NHL players.

Ethan Bear is a guy who cracked the NHL as a regular, got Calder votes, and played 22 minutes/game for an NHL playoff team. It's a totally different level of player. Same with Dermott who had 250 NHL games and some stretches of very good play as a regular NHLer. Nobody is saying that these are 'huge success stories' yet (nice strawman), just that this is not even remotely the same thing as Benning paying a 2nd round pick for a busting prospect.

Young players who have shown they could play well in this league in a reasonable sample size but have stagnated in their current situation are generally quite likely to continue being NHL players in a new, fresh situation. And might build on that and break out. Guys who hit age 23 and haven't been able to stick in the NHL - especially when they're pedigree guys whose organizations really wanted them to succeed - are unlikely to be NHL players, full stop.

 

[iceburg]

As in like today? How long do you think that will last? The dude comes up lame at least once a game and limps back to the bench. He could easily be replacement-level by next year. At any rate, it's a question of a couple years before the fat lady.

Perfectly reasonable point.

 

[credulous]

the bizaare thing is that ethan bear and travis dermott are guys who were on their way out of the league before vancouver picked them up. they definitely hadn't solidified their places in the nhl. dermott's ice time dropped three straight seasons until he was being healthy scratched for guys like justin holl, zach bogosian, ilya lubushkin and mark giordano. bear was dumped by edmonton and carolina in consecutive seasons for not sticking in their lineups

these aren't young players with upside they're fringe nhlers. they're exactly the same idea as benning's "age gap" acquisitions like baertschi, pedan, clendening, vey, etc

 

[Canucker]

Uhhh let’s see, the AHL team playing better is a good thing. Winning environment helps development. On top of that, if you go and check the Abby thread, Klimovich, Karlsson, Lockwood are all taking steps and improved. Hell it even sounds like Woo is improving as well as he has been stagnating for the past several seasons. We haven’t had an environment where you hear actual prospects improving since we had the Moose as our farm team.
Last year’s team was awful for development. You don’t remember our prospects getting benched because development wasn’t as important for reasons.

What is happening in the A right now is what all of us has been hoping to see for years.

I don’t see myself as praising them, it’s more like, there are some stuff here and because of that I don’t mind waiting till this off-season when more data point comes in to make a more informed decision. I don’t understand why you guys feel like waiting 6 months before deciding is such a travesty. Do you think you can make enough noise to convince the owner to fire Allvin and JR within 6 months?

We have no choice but to wait, but some people are able to make evaluations on the fly…there is enough data to make an evaluation and its a very mixed bag with no real aim…in 6 months from now, we can evaluate again. I’m not expecting anyone (other than Bruce) to get fired within 6 months…and I’m not looking for anyone to be fired, I’m simply evaluating performance to date.

 

[credulous]

You compared a Pedan trade to Dermott/ Bear. You compared a trade where we spent a 3rd / 5th to get 2 players with 200+ games NHL experience vs A trade where we spent a 3rd for a unwanted prospect that played a grand total of like 15 NHL games and said they are similar.

So tell me how are they similar? You seem to have a broad definition of “awful” and that getting a NHL player is just as awful as getting a guy that is barely a AHL player.

the pedan trade was bad; i'm not defending it. benning gave up a 3rd for a 22 year old player they felt had upside that was blocked by the deep islanders lineup. it was an okay idea but bad because they probably didn't bother to scout him and just went off old reports they had lying around. it was especially bad because pedan failed to stick in vancouver at all. it was a longshot bet with a bad outcome. apart from that it's basically the same idea as the studnicka trade

the dermott trade was also bad. maybe a little better. maybe a little worse. i think worse but it's close and it doesn't really matter. dermott was a 25 year old who was shipped out of town by a stanley cup contender leading up to the playoffs because the leafs decided they'd rather have justin holl, mark giordano and ilya lubushkin play over him. they had zero reason they needed to move him and their depth past that was two rookies in rasmus sandin and timothy liljegren. why would a contender give up a useful depth piece for a mid round pick? the answer is that he wasn't very useful and had played his way down to 9th on their not-very-good depth chart

the only way the dermott trade works out is if toronto badly misevaluated what they had in dermott and he shows much better here than he ever did in toronto. i think the odds of that are much worse than the odds that pedan turned out to be a useful nhl player

 

[arttk]

the pedan trade was bad; i'm not defending it. benning gave up a 3rd for a 22 year old player they felt had upside that was blocked by the deep islanders lineup. it was an okay idea but bad because they probably didn't bother to scout him and just went off old reports they had lying around. it was especially bad because pedan failed to stick in vancouver at all. it was a longshot bet with a bad outcome. apart from that it's basically the same idea as the studnicka trade

the dermott trade was also bad. maybe a little better. maybe a little worse. i think worse but it's close and it doesn't really matter. dermott was a 25 year old who was shipped out of town by a stanley cup contender leading up to the playoffs because the leafs decided they'd rather have justin holl, mark giordano and ilya lubushkin play over him. they had zero reason they needed to move him and their depth past that was two rookies in rasmus sandin and timothy liljegren. why would a contender give up a useful depth piece for a mid round pick? the answer is that he wasn't very useful and had played his way down to 9th on their not-very-good depth chart

the only way the dermott trade works out is if toronto badly misevaluated what they had in dermott and he shows much better here than he ever did in toronto. i think the odds of that are much worse than the odds that pedan turned out to be a useful nhl player

the pedan trade was bad; i'm not defending it. benning gave up a 3rd for a 22 year old player they felt had upside that was blocked by the deep islanders lineup. it was an okay idea but bad because they probably didn't bother to scout him and just went off old reports they had lying around. it was especially bad because pedan failed to stick in vancouver at all. it was a longshot bet with a bad outcome. apart from that it's basically the same idea as the studnicka trade

the dermott trade was also bad. maybe a little better. maybe a little worse. i think worse but it's close and it doesn't really matter. dermott was a 25 year old who was shipped out of town by a stanley cup contender leading up to the playoffs because the leafs decided they'd rather have justin holl, mark giordano and ilya lubushkin play over him. they had zero reason they needed to move him and their depth past that was two rookies in rasmus sandin and timothy liljegren. why would a contender give up a useful depth piece for a mid round pick? the answer is that he wasn't very useful and had played his way down to 9th on their not-very-good depth chart

the only way the dermott trade works out is if toronto badly misevaluated what they had in dermott and he shows much better here than he ever did in toronto. i think the odds of that are much worse than the odds that pedan turned out to be a useful nhl player

A) are you trump? Who the f*** talks like that. Bad, little better, could be bad, could be great, definitely the bestest and the worse

B) you are stretching this so much it’s amazing. We spent a 3rd and the worst outcome is that if he doesn’t put it together and he stays as a 3rd paring guy that can play both sides while being on a cheap comtract. That’s an acceptable return for a 3rd rounder and a reasonable gamble.
And you want to compare him to Pedan who couldn’t even stick in the freaking AHL. What did we get for that 3rd rounder? Not even 3 seasons of AHL play.
We’ve already gotten more out of Dermott than we ever did from Pedan and you are acting like oh time will tell!

 

[credulous]

B) you are stretching this so much it’s amazing. We spent a 3rd and the worst outcome is that if he doesn’t put it together and he stays as a 3rd paring guy that can play both sides while being on a cheap comtract. That’s an acceptable return for a 3rd rounder and a reasonable gamble.
And you want to compare him to Pedan who couldn’t even stick in the freaking AHL. What did we get for that 3rd rounder? Not even 3 seasons of AHL play.
We’ve already gotten more out of Dermott than we ever did from Pedan and you are acting like oh time will tell!

this just boils down to whether you think getting a 3rd/4th pairing guy for 70 games is worth a third. i think it's a disaster especially when it's someone like dermott where you have tons of evidence he's not anything more than that staring you in the face. if you think that's good value then great, we can stop discussing this

 

[arttk]

this just boils down to whether you think getting a 3rd/4th pairing guy for 70 games is worth a third. i think it's a disaster especially when it's someone like dermott where you have tons of evidence he's not anything more than that staring you in the face. if you think that's good value then great, we can stop discussing this

You are the one equating that trade to the Pedan trade where we got barely 3 seasons worth of AHL play out of that 3rd rounder.

 

[credulous]

You are the one equating that trade to the Pedan trade where we got barely 3 seasons worth of AHL play out of that 3rd rounder.

yeah. that's my point. i think giving up a 3rd for play you could have got for free from burroughs or wolanin or stillman is just as bad as giving up a 3rd for a guy who isn't good enough to crack your lineup. they're both awful trades that shouldn't have been made

 

[F A N]

Yes. This discussion is f***ing bizarre.

The hardest step in a player's development is being able to stick permanently in the NHL and show they can compete in this league. There are lots of good AHL players who can play a couple games in the NHL. There are comparatively very few who can make that next step.

Every single player of this type that Benning acquired was a guy approaching or past waiver eligibility who had never shown that they could play at the NHL level or stuck in the league more than ever-so-briefly, and none of them ever stuck in the NHL again after leaving Vancouver. Vey, Baertschi, Granlund, Pouliot. Etem, Pedan. All just not NHL players and never were NHL players.

Ethan Bear is a guy who cracked the NHL as a regular, got Calder votes, and played 22 minutes/game for an NHL playoff team. It's a totally different level of player. Same with Dermott who had 250 NHL games and some stretches of very good play as a regular NHLer. Nobody is saying that these are 'huge success stories' yet (nice strawman), just that this is not even remotely the same thing as Benning paying a 2nd round pick for a busting prospect.

Young players who have shown they could play well in this league in a reasonable sample size but have stagnated in their current situation are generally quite likely to continue being NHL players in a new, fresh situation. And might build on that and break out. Guys who hit age 23 and haven't been able to stick in the NHL - especially when they're pedigree guys whose organizations really wanted them to succeed - are unlikely to be NHL players, full stop.

Don't disagree with the gist of your take here but as usual you're exaggerating and throwing a blanket over everything here. Doesn't Leivo and Dickinson (Benning acquisitions) fit into the "has played NHL games and some stretches of very good play as a regular NHLer?" Meanwhile, Shinkaruk (while you overrated him as an asset) fit into the category of never having shown that he could play at the NHL level? While Gaunce (who you thought would be a 20 goal scorer if given Sutter's minutes) seem to fit more into the category of "not a NHL player and never was a NHL player" category. I'm also not sure why you lumped Pedan with the others. Pedan was 21 at the time of acquisition, had previously showed growth since he was drafted, and had two years of waiver exempt status left.

The truth is that trading for a soon to be waiver eligible "prospect" is a different type of trade. You are getting a younger player. So a guy like Nils Lundkvist at age 21 is going to have more value than a 25 year old Ethan Bear. Of course there's more risk than acquiring guys who have shown an ability to at least stick in the NHL. Bear/Dermott. Let's not forget that while we bought low on Bear, Bear could have easily cost us a 3rd like Dermott did.

 

[arttk]

yeah. that's my point. i think giving up a 3rd for play you could have got for free from burroughs or wolanin or stillman is just as bad as giving up a 3rd for a guy who isn't good enough to crack your lineup. they're both awful trades that shouldn't have been made

Actually your point was that the Dermott and Bear trade was just like the Pedan trade.