Management Discussion | Pre-Season Approaching

[Vector]

I have a sneaking suspicion the Flyers will stumble so hard they land themselves in the lottery.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

What is an Arber Xhekaj

 

[credulous]

You can't make definitive statements based on the eye-test lol. OEL definitely struggles in regards to defending the rush but that one issue doesn't erase the things he does well. I didn't see the issues regarding forechecking and zone exits you're claiming and the stats don't really back that up either. The other thing about OEL is that he arguably helped turn Myers into a passable top 4 defenceman last season which you're completely ignoring and omitting here. He's not perfect and he's absolutely overpaid but stating that the player who was tasked with playing the most difficult minutes "might be passable in a sheltered 3rd pairing role" is hyperbolic nonsense.

i can make the same case with stats if you want

(stats via MoneyPuck.com -NHL Analytics, Playoff Odds, Power Rankings, Player Stats, Evolving-Hockey and All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder)

the regular stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a GA of 2.07 good for 53/170. G% they fall to 50% good for 95/170. at 600 minutes they rank 13/38 for GA and 29/38 for G%. they have an on ice sv% of 93.66 which is good for 30/172 at 200 minutes and 8/38 at 600 minutes

the advanced stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have an xGA of 2.55 which ranks 98/171. their offense was slightly better than their defense and got them a 49.3% xG% good for rank 78/171. if you up the threshold to 600 minutes they rank 26/38 in xGA and 25/38 in xG%

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a corsi against of 58.38 which ranks 135/170. their corsi rel is 48.8% which puts them 105/170. at 600 minutes they rank 30/37 in both corsi against and corsi rel

on the canucks alone (100 min minimum) oel/myers is beat out by hunt/dermott, hughes/schenn and hunt/burroughs for xGA and hughes/myers, hunt/hamonic, hunt/dermott and hughes/schenn for xG%. they did manage to beat hunt/burroughs, hughes/poolman and hughes/hamonic tho

the really advanced stats case against oel/myers

oel allowed zone entries at a rate of 4.284. myers 4.444. (league average: 3.57) oel's carry against was 58.2% and myers 61% (league average: 59.8)

oel's most similar players (considering defending zone entries only) were victor mete, zdeno chara, thomas chabot and adam larsson. myers were riley stillman, rasmus dahlin, rasmus ristolainen and morgan reilly

oel had 3.75 zone exits with possession per 60 (league average: 5.77). myers 3.98. oel had 2.14 clearances per 60. myers 2.34 (league average: 2.41)

most similar players for both (they are their most similar players so this is easy) (considering exits only) were kyle capobianco, mario ferraro, dysin mayo and jan ruuta. erik gudbranson just missed the cut

for zone exits per 60 oel has 5.89 exits. myers 6.31 (league average: 7.59). botched exits (turnovers exiting, lost forechecking battles) oel has 7.5 and myers 6.78 (league average: 5.81)

most similar players for oel (zone exits/botched exits only) were jakub zboril, william lagesson, derek forbot and jan moser. myers were nic meloche, marc edouard vlasic, andrew peeke and erik gudbranson (it's actually derek forbot but i like to get erik gudbranson in where i can)

the eye test case against oel/myers

they suck. are you kidding?

summary

the absolute best case you can make for them based on stats is that they were a middling second pairing or a decent second pairing if you ignore on ice sv%. if you look at literally any commonly accepted stats of defenseman performance they were at best a bottom end middle pairing or an okayish third pairing. this of course only focuses on their performance in their own end. their 'counting stats' were both very underwhelming. i do think oel has a lot to give offensively but he's blocked by hughes so it's not really relevant as to his value

 

[Diamonddog01]

i can make the same case with stats if you want

(stats via MoneyPuck.com -NHL Analytics, Playoff Odds, Power Rankings, Player Stats, Evolving-Hockey and All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder)

the regular stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a GA of 2.07 good for 53/170. G% they fall to 50% good for 95/170. at 600 minutes they rank 13/38 for GA and 29/38 for G%. they have an on ice sv% of 93.66 which is good for 30/172 at 200 minutes and 8/38 at 600 minutes

the advanced stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have an xGA of 2.55 which ranks 98/171. their offense was slightly better than their defense and got them a 49.3% xG% good for rank 78/171. if you up the threshold to 600 minutes they rank 26/38 in xGA and 25/38 in xG%

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a corsi against of 58.38 which ranks 135/170. their corsi rel is 48.8% which puts them 105/170. at 600 minutes they rank 30/37 in both corsi against and corsi rel

on the canucks alone (100 min minimum) oel/myers is beat out by hunt/dermott, hughes/schenn and hunt/burroughs for xGA and hughes/myers, hunt/hamonic, hunt/dermott and hughes/schenn for xG%. they did manage to beat hunt/burroughs, hughes/poolman and hughes/hamonic tho

the really advanced stats case against oel/myers

oel allowed zone entries at a rate of 4.284. myers 4.444. (league average: 3.57) oel's carry against was 58.2% and myers 61% (league average: 59.8)

oel's most similar players (considering defending zone entries only) were victor mete, zdeno chara, thomas chabot and adam larsson. myers were riley stillman, rasmus dahlin, rasmus ristolainen and morgan reilly

oel had 3.75 zone exits with possession per 60 (league average: 5.77). myers 3.98. oel had 2.14 clearances per 60. myers 2.34 (league average: 2.41)

most similar players for both (they are their most similar players so this is easy) (considering exits only) were kyle capobianco, mario ferraro, dysin mayo and jan ruuta. erik gudbranson just missed the cut

for zone exits per 60 oel has 5.89 exits. myers 6.31 (league average: 7.59). botched exits (turnovers exiting, lost forechecking battles) oel has 7.5 and myers 6.78 (league average: 5.81)

most similar players for oel (zone exits/botched exits only) were jakub zboril, william lagesson, derek forbot and jan moser. myers were nic meloche, marc edouard vlasic, andrew peeke and erik gudbranson (it's actually derek forbot but i like to get erik gudbranson in where i can)

the eye test case against oel/myers

they suck. are you kidding?

summary

the absolute best case you can make for them based on stats is that they were a middling second pairing or a decent second pairing if you ignore on ice sv%. if you look at literally any commonly accepted stats of defenseman performance they were at best a bottom end middle pairing or an okayish third pairing. this of course only focuses on their performance in their own end. their 'counting stats' were both very underwhelming. i do think oel has a lot to give offensively but he's blocked by hughes so it's not really relevant as to his value

Are you factoring in QoC in any of this? Seems somewhat important to this analysis...

And no, the eye test did not indicate they suck.

 

[pitseleh]

Are you factoring in QoC in any of this? Seems somewhat important to this analysis...

And no, the eye test did not indicate they suck.

They grade out about the same if you limit the analysis to ice time against top players. I posted a link in the analytics thread if you want to dig it up.

 

[credulous]

Are you factoring in QoC in any of this? Seems somewhat important to this analysis...

And no, the eye test did not indicate they suck.

nobody really factors in QoC anymore. it's mildly useful for corsi; pretty useless for everything else

since you asked though, oel and myers faced basically identical QoC as hughes, hamonic and poolman. schenn and dermott played slightly worse competition. hunt and burroughs were largely sheltered

 

[pitseleh]

nobody really factors in QoC anymore. it's mildly useful for corsi; pretty useless for everything else

since you asked though, oel and myers faced basically identical QoC as hughes, hamonic and poolman. schenn and dermott played slightly worse competition. hunt and burroughs were largely sheltered

The thing to be careful with is when making cross-team comparisons, play style has an effect on rate stats.

The Canucks opened things up under Boudreau and everyone's defensive stats went down as a result. Hard to compare that across to a team that played more of a lockdown style.

At the same time, the same thing was true under Green when they gave up any pretence of offence to try to limit chances against, and people were losing their shit over OEL and Myers grading out reasonably well (not even great) as if we had found the next great shutdown pairing.

When I watch them, adequate second pairing is what I see too (with OEL carrying the load), though I don't pretend to have any special skill in that regard.

 

[Diamonddog01]

nobody really factors in QoC anymore. it's mildly useful for corsi; pretty useless for everything else

since you asked though, oel and myers faced basically identical QoC as hughes, hamonic and poolman. schenn and dermott played slightly worse competition. hunt and burroughs were largely sheltered

Hmm I haven't looked or explored advanced stats in a long time but when you are looking at very basic stats like GA and things such as zone exits and entries I think QoC would be a huge factor in results. I'll have to take a look at the @pitseleh's analysis. In any case 2nd pairing results are still better than being passable as a sheltered 3rd pairing.

 

[credulous]

The thing to be careful with is when making cross-team comparisons, play style has an effect on rate stats.

The Canucks opened things up under Boudreau and everyone's defensive stats went down as a result. Hard to compare that across to a team that played more of a lockdown style.

At the same time, the same thing was true under Green when they gave up any pretence of offence to try to limit chances against, and people were losing their shit over OEL and Myers grading out reasonably well (not even great) as if we had found the next great shutdown pairing.

When I watch them, adequate second pairing is what I see too (with OEL carrying the load), though I don't pretend to have any special skill in that regard.

absolutely. i think all of the metrics presented above need to be taken with a grain of salt. i don't particularly believe oel and myers are a bottom pairing caliber duo but "the eye test" tells me they are an average to below average second pairing and the stats mostly back that up

given their contracts i'm pretty secure in calling them the worst value pairing in the league

Hmm I haven't looked or explored advanced stats in a long time but when you are looking at very basic stats like GA and things such as zone exits and entries I think QoC would be a huge factor in results. I'll have to take a look at the @pitseleh's analysis. In any case 2nd pairing results are still better than being passable as a sheltered 3rd pairing.

when i say oel would be passable sheltered on a 3rd pairing i mean you don't want him taking tough defensive minutes and you want to try to leverage his offensive ability. he could probably be the second best guy on your top pairing you mostly deploy in the opponent's zone or the power play specialist you try to keep off the ice in his own end but he can't be a shutdown defenseman given how bad he is at all the things a shutdown defenseman needs to do. in an ideal world even ignoring his contract he's like the 4th or 5th best defenseman on a contender or the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a bottom feeder

 

[andora]

i can make the same case with stats if you want

(stats via MoneyPuck.com -NHL Analytics, Playoff Odds, Power Rankings, Player Stats, Evolving-Hockey and All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder)

the regular stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a GA of 2.07 good for 53/170. G% they fall to 50% good for 95/170. at 600 minutes they rank 13/38 for GA and 29/38 for G%. they have an on ice sv% of 93.66 which is good for 30/172 at 200 minutes and 8/38 at 600 minutes

the advanced stats case against oel/myers

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have an xGA of 2.55 which ranks 98/171. their offense was slightly better than their defense and got them a 49.3% xG% good for rank 78/171. if you up the threshold to 600 minutes they rank 26/38 in xGA and 25/38 in xG%

with a threshold of 200 minutes oel and myers have a corsi against of 58.38 which ranks 135/170. their corsi rel is 48.8% which puts them 105/170. at 600 minutes they rank 30/37 in both corsi against and corsi rel

on the canucks alone (100 min minimum) oel/myers is beat out by hunt/dermott, hughes/schenn and hunt/burroughs for xGA and hughes/myers, hunt/hamonic, hunt/dermott and hughes/schenn for xG%. they did manage to beat hunt/burroughs, hughes/poolman and hughes/hamonic tho

the really advanced stats case against oel/myers

oel allowed zone entries at a rate of 4.284. myers 4.444. (league average: 3.57) oel's carry against was 58.2% and myers 61% (league average: 59.8)

oel's most similar players (considering defending zone entries only) were victor mete, zdeno chara, thomas chabot and adam larsson. myers were riley stillman, rasmus dahlin, rasmus ristolainen and morgan reilly

oel had 3.75 zone exits with possession per 60 (league average: 5.77). myers 3.98. oel had 2.14 clearances per 60. myers 2.34 (league average: 2.41)

most similar players for both (they are their most similar players so this is easy) (considering exits only) were kyle capobianco, mario ferraro, dysin mayo and jan ruuta. erik gudbranson just missed the cut

for zone exits per 60 oel has 5.89 exits. myers 6.31 (league average: 7.59). botched exits (turnovers exiting, lost forechecking battles) oel has 7.5 and myers 6.78 (league average: 5.81)

most similar players for oel (zone exits/botched exits only) were jakub zboril, william lagesson, derek forbot and jan moser. myers were nic meloche, marc edouard vlasic, andrew peeke and erik gudbranson (it's actually derek forbot but i like to get erik gudbranson in where i can)

the eye test case against oel/myers

they suck. are you kidding?

summary

the absolute best case you can make for them based on stats is that they were a middling second pairing or a decent second pairing if you ignore on ice sv%. if you look at literally any commonly accepted stats of defenseman performance they were at best a bottom end middle pairing or an okayish third pairing. this of course only focuses on their performance in their own end. their 'counting stats' were both very underwhelming. i do think oel has a lot to give offensively but he's blocked by hughes so it's not really relevant as to his value

What site do you use for entries exits

 

[RandV]

You nailed it. I also think it's a cowardice mindset (i.e. we're not going to win the cup anyways, and I don't want to see my fragile heart get broken, so we should BLOW IT UP so we can live in this fantasy world where we accumulate a bunch 4.5 green star prospects on ELC's and become a dynasty!).

The reality of the NHL is that most teams' cores have to go through some growing pains before taking the next step. Teams like Tampa, Colorado, St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA, and Boston are of no exception.

This is something that I never want to accuse anyone specifically of but I assume it happens pretty frequently, fans using the EA 'be a gm' experience as a basis for what you want your team to do. I haven't played an EA NHL game almost two decades but I'd imagine the experience remains the same that it is trivially easy to tank hard and come out a powerhouse contender.

 

[credulous]

What site do you use for entries exits

All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder

All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder

www.allthreezones.com

 

[MarkMM]

I don't think signing Horvat to a contract hurts our cap. People like to say you can't have that much money tied to Centre, and I think it is more tied to forwards, as Both Petey and Miller can play wing. I also think you build from the centre out.

To give an example or two, Tamp this season is spending 21 million on their centres Toronto 27 mil, and the Oilers 26 mil. Yes some of these guys play wing at times too, but again so do Miller and Petey.

Preferably we can move out a winger for a top 4 d, and then move myers in the offseason to reset the cap allocation, and find another top 4.

As long as we trade one of our expensive wingers (Boeser / Garland) we can keep the rest of the team together, but without room to fix the defence. That's where the appeal of moving Horvat comes in (unless we move BOTH Boeser and Garland, if we can find takers, even just for cap space), but that would address the cap space but likely not the asset(s) needed to get a good RHD in return. Even Horvat might not get it done but would be a lot closer than either Boeser or Garland I'd think.

Horvat is 27. Statistically speaking, his best years are probably behind him.

He's being lowballed because people assign him all these intangible qualities that in reality don't pan out. He's a quality 2nd line scoring center with average defensive awareness who has entered the 2nd half of his career. It would be nice to re-sign him for a 3-4 year deal but that's not what he's looking for.

Low key I wouldn't be surprised if management wants to move on to new leadership for the team.

I really like Horvat, and love how he's grown to be so much more than an elite third line centre many (myself included) projected him to be, but as much as he's surprised to the upside, I think there's also a risk that we're now over-valuing him to the upside. He's better than we thought he would be, but not the irreplaceable star that would tank us if we lost him.

 

[StreetHawk]

As long as we trade one of our expensive wingers (Boeser / Garland) we can keep the rest of the team together, but without room to fix the defence. That's where the appeal of moving Horvat comes in (unless we move BOTH Boeser and Garland, if we can find takers, even just for cap space), but that would address the cap space but likely not the asset(s) needed to get a good RHD in return. Even Horvat might not get it done but would be a lot closer than either Boeser or Garland I'd think.



I really like Horvat, and love how he's grown to be so much more than an elite third line centre many (myself included) projected him to be, but as much as he's surprised to the upside, I think there's also a risk that we're now over-valuing him to the upside. He's better than we thought he would be, but not the irreplaceable star that would tank us if we lost him.

Bo is like a complete 180 on what we thought he was good at and what he ended up being good at.

Defensive 3C with questions offensively.

Turns out to be an offensive 2C who is good at FO but not a strong defensive C.

 

[thefeebster]

What is an Arber Xhekaj

Jack-eye is really fun to watch!

Habs have a lot of youth this year, but Guhle looks like a top pair defender in the making.

The bigger concern is Allen, i think he is pretty awful.

 

[Hit the post]

This is something that I never want to accuse anyone specifically of but I assume it happens pretty frequently, fans using the EA 'be a gm' experience as a basis for what you want your team to do. I haven't played an EA NHL game almost two decades but I'd imagine the experience remains the same that it is trivially easy to tank hard and come out a powerhouse contender.

 

[racerjoe]

As long as we trade one of our expensive wingers (Boeser / Garland) we can keep the rest of the team together, but without room to fix the defence. That's where the appeal of moving Horvat comes in (unless we move BOTH Boeser and Garland, if we can find takers, even just for cap space), but that would address the cap space but likely not the asset(s) needed to get a good RHD in return. Even Horvat might not get it done but would be a lot closer than either Boeser or Garland I'd think.



I really like Horvat, and love how he's grown to be so much more than an elite third line centre many (myself included) projected him to be, but as much as he's surprised to the upside, I think there's also a risk that we're now over-valuing him to the upside. He's better than we thought he would be, but not the irreplaceable star that would tank us if we lost him.

I think fixing the D in terms of cap has to come from D. It is already one of the most expensive, we can't take from the forwards to fix it - in terms of cap. I am ok with trading a winger as we have lots of good ones at the moment.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

What is an Arber Xhekaj

Last name is pronounced Jack-eye..a lot of east coast media praising the player..

Apparently,he’s big..and plenty tough..

 

[StreetHawk]

Last name is pronounced Jack-eye..a lot of east coast media praising the player..

Apparently,he’s big..and plenty tough..

Habs D, the vets are Savard, Edmonton, Matheson. Romanov got moved so that created another opening. I think one of the vets is out for a while iirc.

 

[sting101]

absolutely. i think all of the metrics presented above need to be taken with a grain of salt. i don't particularly believe oel and myers are a bottom pairing caliber duo but "the eye test" tells me they are an average to below average second pairing and the stats mostly back that up

given their contracts i'm pretty secure in calling them the worst value pairing in the league



when i say oel would be passable sheltered on a 3rd pairing i mean you don't want him taking tough defensive minutes and you want to try to leverage his offensive ability. he could probably be the second best guy on your top pairing you mostly deploy in the opponent's zone or the power play specialist you try to keep off the ice in his own end but he can't be a shutdown defenseman given how bad he is at all the things a shutdown defenseman needs to do. in an ideal world even ignoring his contract he's like the 4th or 5th best defenseman on a contender or the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a bottom feeder

Jeesh no offense but all that stat analysis to come to a bad conclusion?

 

[Ruthervin]

This is something that I never want to accuse anyone specifically of but I assume it happens pretty frequently, fans using the EA 'be a gm' experience as a basis for what you want your team to do. I haven't played an EA NHL game almost two decades but I'd imagine the experience remains the same that it is trivially easy to tank hard and come out a powerhouse contender.

My last EA NHL game played was in 2014.

Be a GM mode.

The recipe was simple.

Trade anyone over 25 for a prospect with 4.5 Green star potential.

Sit back, eat some popcorn, and watch your 4.5 Green star prospects grow like magic beans within a 2-3 year time span.

Rebuild complete + no free market competition + win the cup + go on a date with Vanna White.

Rinse, repeat, lather.

 

[Yultron]

I have a sneaking suspicion the Flyers will stumble so hard they land themselves in the lottery.

Chuck Fletcher is likely the first GM to be fired if what you’re saying happens , and I think he will be fired , they should have started a rebuild . What major retool? Deangelo , Deslauriers and resigning Justin Braun is a major retool?

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Chuck Fletcher is likely the first GM to be fired if what you’re saying happens , and I think he will be fired , they should have started a rebuild . What major retool? Deangelo , Deslauriers and resigning Justin Braun is a major retool?

I have to guess Chuck Fletcher is a product of the owner. Much like the shenanigan's we saw here for 8 years. Owners shouldn't meddle but they also shouldn't be this disconnected to reality. It's like giving the keys to an alcoholic and asking him to drive the morning school bus.

 

[Vector]

I have to guess Chuck Fletcher is a product of the owner. Much like the shenanigan's we saw here for 8 years. Owners shouldn't meddle but they shouldn't also be this disconnected to reality. It's like giving the keys to an alcoholic and asking him to drive the morning school bus.

I think Fletcher and Comcast are similar to Benning and FA. Not identical because FA treats the Canucks like his personal toy while Comcast is a corporate entity that has a mandate to constantly generate profit. When you rebuild you take a hit. So Fletcher is instructed to make the team successful. The problem is, like Benning, he's just not good at his job.

 

[Yultron]

I have to guess Chuck Fletcher is a product of the owner. Much like the shenanigan's we saw here for 8 years. Owners shouldn't meddle but they also shouldn't be this disconnected to reality. It's like giving the keys to an alcoholic and asking him to drive the morning school bus.

You are right , but I can’t see Dave Scott being much more patient if the losing continues another reason torts was brought in instead of a younger coach to guide a rebuild .

Last year when The Flyers lost 13 in a row Scott said he was sick of losing and was going to right the ship and was going for a major retool and not a rebuild .

And Scott knows the fans are against Chuck Fletcher more than ever as he just finished last place in a fan aprroval rating league wide .

Another lost season of losing and with declining attendance I can’t see how Fletcher survives