Management Discussion | Just Have a Plan

[m9]

I can admit to being one who did not like that return.

I think a lot of people want to lump this management team in with Benning and I just for the life of me don't get it. Like it makes no sense to me.

I don't know if this new group will be good or bad, but to just lump them in is so ludicrous to me. And this isn't just happening here it is everywhere. I hear media talking about it and it baffles my mind.

I don't understand why you are surprised people lump them together as of now.

The on-ice product looks the same - the team still sucks and their record is basically identical to what we've seen from the previous management group.

The meaningful players are the same - this new management doubled down on key players by giving them new contracts (Boeser, Miller) and haven't moved out a single core or even semi-core player.

Once they put their stamp on the team by either winning games or making meaningful roster moves, you'll see the separation.

 

[StreetHawk]

I can admit to being one who did not like that return.

I think a lot of people want to lump this management team in with Benning and I just for the life of me don't get it. Like it makes no sense to me.

I don't know if this new group will be good or bad, but to just lump them in is so ludicrous to me. And this isn't just happening here it is everywhere. I hear media talking about it and it baffles my mind.

So far this management group hasn't done much. They talked a good game when they arrived but so far....

Mik and Kuz were good signings.

Extending Miller has not been. Boeser, I was fine in bringing him back, but thought they should have done 2 years vs 3. Give him some security in that this season isn't make or break and allows him to hit UFA at 27. Dumping Dickenson for a 2nd in 2024 hurts. Bear has been a fine addition. Depth guys like Joshua and others at low cost way better than paying millions for what Benning did.

But, no clear sense of direction from the organization yet. As well as Mik has played was it worth giving him $4.5 mill if it meant that the team had to pay a 2nd to move off the $2.65 mill of Dickinson? Team is seeing how much great goaltending from Demko and Markstrom over the past few seasons inflated the team's standings.

New coaching additions of Yeo and Cull seem like a downgrade over Hunt and Walker.

In the NHL, hard to get out of the bottom if saddled by bad contracts. NFL you can turn over an entire roster in 2 seasons. Not the same in the NHL.

 

[arttk]

Casual fans read quotes from the press conference on twitter etc.

Casual fans don’t use twitter

 

[arttk]

As someone who works in physio, no. It makes zero f***in sense to employ a chiro, let alone have him run anything at all on an NHL team.

Well he’s listed as a consultant. Seems like the other dr is the guy running the show.

You really need to quit this narrative, we are absolutely not tanking.

Well let’s see where we end up by end of the year. I don’t think they planned for the team to be this bad. But now that the team is doing this bad, they haven’t done anything to stop it.

 

[Nucker101]

Casual fans don’t use twitter

They do but not for Canucks content lol

 

[Canucker]

I can admit to being one who did not like that return.

I think a lot of people want to lump this management team in with Benning and I just for the life of me don't get it. Like it makes no sense to me.

I don't know if this new group will be good or bad, but to just lump them in is so ludicrous to me. And this isn't just happening here it is everywhere. I hear media talking about it and it baffles my mind.

I think the reason why they get "lumped" together is the fact they are pretty much following the same failed blueprint as Benning's group has, and had virtually the same results. Personally, I find JR and PA thoughtful and understanding of the problems this team has, I would just question some of their decision making and how they occasionally contradict themselves, and their ability to read the NHL tea leaves...I wouldn't dream of comparing them to Jim Benning's utter lack of cognitive function and incompetence, but the chosen path of "retooling" has been a failure thus far, for both management groups...Benning's failure has had the distinction of lasting 8 long years, we're only just past 1 with this group...there is time to course correct.

 

[bossram]

I don't understand why you are surprised people lump them together as of now.

The on-ice product looks the same - the team still sucks and their record is basically identical to what we've seen from the previous management group.

The meaningful players are the same - this new management doubled down on key players by giving them new contracts (Boeser, Miller) and haven't moved out a single core or even semi-core player.

Once they put their stamp on the team by either winning games or making meaningful roster moves, you'll see the separation.

Yep. The on-ice group is the same. The direction is the same. The fundamental inability to understand the salary cap is the same. The refusal to take an intentional step back is the same. And the perpetual mediocrity is the same.

Is JR/Allvin slightly better at finding "age gap" players? Umm, yeah, sure. But finding one Ethan Bear and a sea of Studnickas isn't going to change the team's fortunes.

 

[gringo]

The more I think about it the more I think that press Comference was pretty extraordinary. You don’t see that sort of thing often. Wow.

 

[bossram]

Goaltending and coaching.

I'm not saying it's super simple, but our goaltending can't get worse. We expected to receive top 7ish goaltending in the league and have received bottom 2 or so.

And the players either aren't following Boudreau's system, or there isn't a system.

I'm certainly not saying that these two issues are fix-alls, we still need to move Horvat and Schenn for futures, get a high pick this year, and regroup. But it's not as catastrophic as it looks if we consider these factors, and so it behooves upper management not to act as if this pathetic showing is as good as this core can be.

I don't think fixing the goaltending is that easy. This is a catastrophic goaltending environment. No goalie is going to put up strong numbers with Vancouver. Demko was working miracles last season and still only managed a .915. Their core forwards, Petey aside, are not strong defensively. The blueline will be exceedingly difficult to fix.

The absolute ceiling of the group JR doubled-down on is to be a Wild Card team. There are no prospects to push the team forward, and the lack of cap flexibility means they won't be able to add useful players when they're sold at a discount. What is the point?

 

[MS]

If that's true then that's a failure of statistics.

There's no doubt that are problems our a lot deeper than just goaltending and our D is entirely too permissive.

But we have had Demko play terribly and then get hurt, and then have been employing two goaltenders who weren't even employable in this league until last year.

It's really interesting to see @MS do a big about face in terms of what he wants to do, because he's become more conservative with regards to rebuilding than I am. But he's not wrong that there's a loooot going wrong here, but goaltending and coaching are making this look a lot worse than it is, and we're all pretty emotional about it.

It's weird when people keep saying I'm changing my tune or doing and about face. I've never been a big tank/rebuild guy. I mean, I was - like almost everyone else - from 2015-2019 when it was obvious the team was f***ed and that's the direction we needed to head. But I was saying that I'd be looked at buying on a trade/sign with Mark Stone at the 2019 deadline to pull us out of the tank. I was furious about the situation in 2020 when we should have been chasing Pietrangelos to add to our group and instead were losing Tanevs. I said in 2021 that Benning should be using picks to move out bad contracts - just not the abject idiocy of the OEL trade. And I've said from the second Benning was fired that the new management group needs to be aggressive about moving out Benning's trash in order to properly flush out the roster and try to get this core somewhat back on the rails that it went off of in 2020.

My messaging hasn't changed an iota in the last 4 years.

I hate tanking. I think incentivized losing goes against the ethos of sport and I badly want the league to go to an unweighted lottery so the whole tanking circus joke is permanently eliminated.

The Devils last year had an appalling save percentage and used like 8 goalies and it netted them the 2nd overall pick. This year, Vanecek is giving them .914 and they are a toppish team in the league.

People who didn't play don't understand how bad goaltending affects a team. It's not a bunch of automatons who play the same way and the results are different. When you don't trust that you will get saves, you start trying to prevent any kind of shots at all, and putting increased pressure on yourself to score, which makes you useless because you're trying to do too much.

There are so many examples of this.

I'll keep saying it - people just aren't grasping how terrible our goaltending has been this year. 32nd and dead last in the NHL. First team in the .870s in 23 years. It's costing us about a goal/game relative to league average and even more than that relative to 'normal Demko' of prior years.

Yes, the team defense is bad. But it's been bad for years and Demko has shown himself to be a star-level goalie who could put up top numbers in spite of the defense. Instead our goaltending has absolutely cratered and has been the worst we've received since the 1980s.

And when you get goaltending like this, absolutely everything just falls apart.

I think we need to move on from Bo and get what we can for him, bottom out this year, and retool. So basically a hard rebuild for the next 8 months, and then start building in earnest again. MS is correct that no team is going to dump Petey and Hughes and Demko so they can be pathetic for 8 years, it just doesn't make sense.

Disagree on Horvat. This team is already in a poor position at C and D and you simply can't replace a high-producing, high-leverage C if you trade that player away. And we're going to get absolutely bent over at rental prices in a Horvat trade.

Once you re-sign Miller, you can't just let Horvat walk 40 games later.

As for the last sentence, yeah. It's not just our bad owner. This just isn't how sports works in real life. Fans have set an expectation for what should happen that is grounded in video games instead of reality, and then are having a tantrum when that expectation isn't what's happening.

 

[Peen]

Once again, scoring is up so goaltending overall is down. So this 23 years stuff is relative even without our own team context which is we give up 600 scoring chances per game.

The Canucks are scoring at equally high rates.

If we are speaking in ridiculous absolutes without context, this is the second best canucks offensive season in 38 years.

 

[racerjoe]

I don't understand why you are surprised people lump them together as of now.

The on-ice product looks the same - the team still sucks and their record is basically identical to what we've seen from the previous management group.

The meaningful players are the same - this new management doubled down on key players by giving them new contracts (Boeser, Miller) and haven't moved out a single core or even semi-core player.

Once they put their stamp on the team by either winning games or making meaningful roster moves, you'll see the separation.

So far this management group hasn't done much. They talked a good game when they arrived but so far....

Mik and Kuz were good signings.

Extending Miller has not been. Boeser, I was fine in bringing him back, but thought they should have done 2 years vs 3. Give him some security in that this season isn't make or break and allows him to hit UFA at 27. Dumping Dickenson for a 2nd in 2024 hurts. Bear has been a fine addition. Depth guys like Joshua and others at low cost way better than paying millions for what Benning did.

But, no clear sense of direction from the organization yet. As well as Mik has played was it worth giving him $4.5 mill if it meant that the team had to pay a 2nd to move off the $2.65 mill of Dickinson? Team is seeing how much great goaltending from Demko and Markstrom over the past few seasons inflated the team's standings.

New coaching additions of Yeo and Cull seem like a downgrade over Hunt and Walker.

In the NHL, hard to get out of the bottom if saddled by bad contracts. NFL you can turn over an entire roster in 2 seasons. Not the same in the NHL.

I think the reason why they get "lumped" together is the fact they are pretty much following the same failed blueprint as Benning's group has, and had virtually the same results. Personally, I find JR and PA thoughtful and understanding of the problems this team has, I would just question some of their decision making and how they occasionally contradict themselves, and their ability to read the NHL tea leaves...I wouldn't dream of comparing them to Jim Benning's utter lack of cognitive function and incompetence, but the chosen path of "retooling" has been a failure thus far, for both management groups...Benning's failure has had the distinction of lasting 8 long years, we're only just past 1 with this group...there is time to course correct.

The simple answer is painting by a broad brush you can make most managers look the same.

Did you paint Benning with the same Brush as Gillis after the first year?

Last year people were saying this is going to take a long time to untangle. We can all see the mess still here. Is less than a year a long time? It seems to me for the most part people want to just keep critizing because they can. I don't know if they will be good, but they haven't done much to sway me either way. The worst thing they have done in my eyes is this coach debacle that seems to be tied to ownership. Even the Miller deal that I didn't want to sign isn't as bad as people keep saying, and honestly 90% of the complaining of him is overblown. He was always lazy, and many of the plays are not even that bad. The stick thing was way overblown.

I also see so much double speak, where people complain no matter what. A prime example was yesterdays press conference, both here and on podcasts I heard people saying JR needed to speak to the media. He does, then they lambasted him for doing so. Don't get me wrong I understand some of it, as I get some people not being happy with what he said, but there was still why is he speaking, or when he answers a question people equating it to Benning and I am just like really we want to equate this to a guy who was so bad at speaking they stopped him talking at all?

If people want to criticize, that is fine. I am not dumb, I see there is lots to do that with. It is just the equating to benning, and the double speak that just blows my mind.

 

[m9]

It's weird when people keep saying I'm changing my tune or doing and about face. I've never been a big tank/rebuild guy. I mean, I was - like almost everyone else - from 2015-2019 when it was obvious the team was f***ed and that's the direction we needed to head. But I was saying that I'd be looked at buying on a trade/sign with Mark Stone at the 2019 deadline to pull us out of the tank. I was furious about the situation in 2020 when we should have been chasing Pietrangelos to add to our group and instead were losing Tanevs. I said in 2021 that Benning should be using picks to move out bad contracts - just not the abject idiocy of the OEL trade. And I've said from the second Benning was fired that the new management group needs to be aggressive about moving out Benning's trash in order to properly flush out the roster and try to get this core somewhat back on the rails that it went off of in 2020.

My messaging hasn't changed an iota in the last 4 years.

I hate tanking. I think incentivized losing goes against the ethos of sport and I badly want the league to go to an unweighted lottery so the whole tanking circus joke is permanently eliminated.

Not specific to all this, but if I recall last year leading up to the trade deadline you were very open to trading Miller for a package that didn't include a "blue-chip" prospect. For example, I think you liked a Connor McMichael + late 1st package from Washington and there were probably some others.

Why did you feel that was good value for Miller with 1 extra cheap year left but are strongly against that being good value for Horvat? Is it just the Miller signing that changed things for you in terms of direction of this team?

 

[Nucker101]

Once again, scoring is up so goaltending overall is down. So this 23 years stuff is relative even without our own team context which is we give up 600 scoring chances per game.

The Canucks are scoring at equally high rates.

If we are speaking in ridiculous absolutes without context, this is the second best canucks offensive season in 38 years.

Was just about to type out something similar. The Canucks have company with their historically bad goaltending, there are multiple other teams getting brutal goaltending. Times have changed.

 

[m9]

The simple answer is painting by a broad brush you can make most managers look the same.

Did you paint Benning with the same Brush as Gillis after the first year?

The first year of Benning's regime they took a non-playoff team to 2nd in the division and made the playoffs. They also made substantial changes to the core of the roster with the Kesler trade. That is a tangible, on-ice difference and we haven't seen that yet here. That's why the situations aren't similar. It is an absolutely awful comparison.

 

[TruGr1t]

Greg Wyshynski with a top quote on Halford and Brough this morning: "The fact you doubled down on a roster somebody got fired for building ... is insane. You wasted all this time and you figured out what half the city already knew about this roster."

 

[VanJack]

Rutherford basically admitting that Horvat has priced himself out of the Canucks salary cap structure with his career year. They had a budget to re-sign him, and now it's blown out of the water.

So at the end of the day, it did come down to a choice of extending Horvat or Miller. So it was Miller. Why...why...why?

 

[cabinessence]

Which person on staff has an irrelevant resume and is filling a quota?

Probably Emile Castonguay. Can you imagine a male with the same credentials going to an AGM position that quickly? She was an intern with the Canadiens. Compare that with her colleague Derek Clancey who was with Pittsburgh for 14 years as Director of professional scouting and a scout for Calgary. How did she leapfrog in fromt of people with more experience like Chris Higgins or Mike Koisarek? How did Cammi Granato go from a cup of coffee with Seattle to AGM?

 

[Nucker101]

Rutherford basically admitting that Horvat has priced himself out of the Canucks salary cap structure with his career year. They had a budget to re-sign him, and now it's blown out of the water.

So at the end of the day, it did come down to a choice of extending Horvat or Miller. So it was Miller. Why...why...why?

It should either be both or neither(preferably neither). Not this in between shit

 

[MS]

Once again, scoring is up so goaltending overall is down. So this 23 years stuff is relative even without our own team context which is we give up 600 scoring chances per game.

The Canucks are scoring at equally high rates.

If we are speaking in ridiculous absolutes without context, this is the second best canucks offensive season in 38 years.

No matter how you cut it, it's last in the NHL. Same goalies last year were T-6 behind basically the same team.

We're 0.021 worse than the league average. There are 6 teams in those 23 years who have been more than 0.020 worse than average, only 3 of those have been more than .021 worse, and the absolute worst is .023.

It is some of the absolute worst goaltending we've seen in the NHL this century, not just because scoring is up.

The Canucks are not scoring at 'equally high rates'. We're .012 over the league average in terms of shooting %, which is barely half the difference of our goaltending. And we have a team that would be expected to shoot at a league average rate. As I've said before - team PDO over a season isn't something that is expected to default to 100 and if it isn't it's bad luck. Teams with good shooters and a top goalie (like us) should be expected to drive a positive PDO.

 

[racerjoe]

The first year of Benning's regime they took a non-playoff team to 2nd in the division and made the playoffs. They also made substantial changes to the core of the roster with the Kesler trade. That is a tangible, on-ice difference and we haven't seen that yet here. That's why the situations aren't similar. It is an absolutely awful comparison.

See that is the broad brush, and it isn't what people were saying at the time either.

The core of that team was still a gillis team. It was second on the back of the bounce back of the Gillis players. They were doubling down on that roster. I can compare them using the same broad strokes its actually pretty easy. Again if using the same broad brush. They had an easier time making moves because they were left in a better spot no doubt.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Say what?

The 'next Nieuwendyk' story was from when he was with Calgary.

The only 'interviews' he did were in-house CanucksTV hits for intermissions, usually during the prospects camp etc. so he could talk about how great our developmental system was.

I don't recall him answering questions at a press conference or with an independent media outlet once during his entire 8 years here.

2 minutes of googling. I don't have a lot of time at the moment to dig through a bunch of dead links, but here's three instances of him talking to the media. I am positive that there are more.

And yeah, Jankowski was when he was in Calgary. I was referring to how he's a blowhard who likes to hear the sound of his own self-congratulatory voice.

Good interview with John Weisbrod

Recap: -Good scouts left for promotions in other teams, and were replaced after consulting with Jim Benning and Judd Bracket. New scouts covering the Mid-West, Ontario and Europe added. Very interesting conversation about Jim's philosophy on his recruiting. -Talks about finding players in the lat...

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[Peen]

No matter how you cut it, it's last in the NHL. Same goalies last year were T-6 behind basically the same team.

We're 0.021 worse than the league average. There are 6 teams in those 23 years who have been more than 0.020 worse than average, only 3 of those have been more than .021 worse, and the absolute worst is .023.

It is some of the absolute worst goaltending we've seen in the NHL this century, not just because scoring is up.

The Canucks are not scoring at 'equally high rates'. We're .012 over the league average in terms of shooting %, which is barely half the difference of our goaltending. And we have a team that would be expected to shoot at a league average rate. As I've said before - team PDO over a season isn't something that is expected to default to 100 and if it isn't it's bad luck. Teams with good shooters and a top goalie (like us) should be expected to drive a positive PDO.

When you account for quality of chances, any public or hinted at private model has the canucks significantly outperforming their expected goals.

Sure I can agree that with the way this team is built, when healthy, will have a positive PDO.

But you’ve been taking it to extremes. We are not some ridiculously unlucky team that is the unluckiest in 20+ years.

 

[drax0s]

Probably Emile Castonguay. Can you imagine a male with the same credentials going to an AGM position that quickly? She was an intern with the Canadiens.

She was a player agent and had worked as one for 8 years, has a bachelor in finance and a law degree. It's a bit disingenuous to claim she's a nobody who went from an internship to AGM, no?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

John “Cody Glass” Weisbrod did a significant amount of damage to this franchise, as he did to Calgary. He really embodied the Dunning-Kruger effect during his time here.