Management Discussion | Just Have a Plan

[gringo]

Probably Emile Castonguay. Can you imagine a male with the same credentials going to an AGM position that quickly? She was an intern with the Canadiens. Compare that with her colleague Derek Clancey who was with Pittsburgh for 14 years as Director of professional scouting and a scout for Calgary. How did she leapfrog in fromt of people with more experience like Chris Higgins or Mike Koisarek? How did Cammi Granato go from a cup of coffee with Seattle to AGM?

Yes I agree seems to be a lot of on the job learning which is probably why so little has been done.

 

[sting101]

I know this isn't the point you were trying to make, but it should be mentioned that Demko's injury is basically the only important injury this team has had all year. He's also the only player in the core who had really underperformed. It's a bit of an unfair premise to say "What if our entire core was healthy and all played reasonably well?".

I know it's cloudy because it's a goaltender, but I know you wouldn't have given that benefit of the doubt to previous management group's rosters.

Demko was the single most important player though especially with the gamble on Martin who has been awful as it turns out but to your point a lot of variables happened

Pearson is a pretty good 2/3 LW and would have helped.
Poolman wasn't anything we could bank on but he would have helped early on when Myers and Burroughs were struggling but whatever it should have been nothing but as it goes OEL has been hurting same with Hughes and Dermott was AWOL which meant Burroughs on the left side and Stillman who is terrible had to play. Collaboratively it had impact to an already poor defensive group

The forwards had no excuses other than just being a bad mix with so many turnover machines who end up on the wrong side of the puck. The only thing there when moving Dickinson was the fact that Miller who came in fat and out shape now that his 56 million had been dropped on his lap suddenly couldnt play C and we didnt have a 3C. Boeser bouncing back hasn't really been a thing either. What a passenger he's been

 

[gringo]

I imagine it's her degree in finance and experience as a player agent that landed her the role as AGM in charge of contracts/salary cap. Not her gender or any quota needing filling.

It was another hire by JR into a role they had no experience in before.

 

[sting101]

what are you wanting done this season? you guys do understand that to create a good market for your things that you need as many buyers as possible?

It was always going to be the trade deadline and off season. If you can't wrap your head around that i dont know what to say. Look at how many teams are capped out and tell me who is taking salary for secondary pieces. You either get fleeced or wait its that simple

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

The fact this mgmt group is going to double down on the same shit core just like the old mgmt group....


...really is something you could not make up.

This team has never, ever, ever, proven at any point, that it is nothing more than a potential bubble playoff team.

But hey. Gotta try and get revenue for 2 home games.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Yes, the team defense is bad. But it's been bad for years and Demko has shown himself to be a star-level goalie who could put up top numbers in spite of the defense. Instead our goaltending has absolutely cratered and has been the worst we've received since the 1980s.

I dont think you have a clue about goaltenders.

Im also not sure anymore if you pay attention to what our defence has done if you can't tell a difference between last year and this year.

Our goaltending has been slightly below average.

Our team defence has been AHL level.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

The impact of the ad goaltending is lessened somewhat in that almost every team in our division's goaltending has been bad. The teams with the worst save percentages are all in our division. Vegas is the only team that has a save percentage above .900. I mean LA has a sv% of .882 and they are 17 points up on but they have 3 games in hand. The difference there is not goaltending

Yes we were expecting to Demko to be a top 10 goalie. But goalies have up and down years, and have injuries. Needing top 5-10 goaltending to sneak into the playoffs is how you become the Montreal Canadiens.

 

[iFan]

what are you wanting done this season? you guys do understand that to create a good market for your things that you need as many buyers as possible?

It was always going to be the trade deadline and off season. If you can't wrap your head around that i dont know what to say. Look at how many teams are capped out and tell me who is taking salary for secondary pieces. You either get fleeced or wait its that simple

It’s not so much what we want done this season but what’s been done. Signing Miller to a big contract that kicks in when he’s 30 when the team is in the state it’s in was really frustrating for most fans. It was so clear we had to trade him and clear that cap. Now I don’t mind Mikheyev but we had a lot of cap issues and a lot of money tried up on the wings we didn’t need to do that. Signing Boeser to 6.6 for 3 years was a problem because now we had to lose a 2nd rounder in a deep draft to fit that in, we could’ve avoid this if we didn’t sign Mikheyev.

There’s so many issues with the current team and it was not only ignored but doubled down on. We had a chance to clean up our cap but they decided to make it even worse. Canucks where not in a position to be moving out a 2nd round pick so we can keep a winger either Boeser or a 28 year old in Mikheyev, we need to grow our prospect pool not piss it away. These decisions have put us in a spot where we are going to lose Horvat so we can keep Miller and who knows what happens with Kuzmenko.

The silver lining is that we suck and should hopefully get a good pick in this draft as along as they don’t decided to start showing up and win games now that the playoffs are basically a lost hope, which is probably going to happen only adding to the fans frustration.

 

[Hodgy]

We currently have $14.5 million in cap space against an $83.5 million cap, but really that's probably $17 million because it's hugely likely Poolman will be Ferlanded as a LTIR case.

I've said I'd do 3 things :

1) Buy out OEL.
2) Trade Myers once his bonus is paid and he only has $1 million in salary owing for next year. He should be very tradeable at that stage. If you need to add a pick, do it.
3) Retain down to $5 million on Boeser and hopefully get a pick or something back.

Do those 3 things and we clear $18 million in cap space.

That leaves $32.5 million (or really $35 million) of cap space for 23-24, of which Kuzmenko and Horvat will only take ~$14.5 million. Bear will probably take another $2 million.

Once you fill in a couple depth signings that should still leave a reasonable amount to try and make a couple smart mid-level UFA signings to replace Myers and OEL. Or what I'd really like is some sort of Boeser-Provorov trade.

I'm also not even touching a Garland trade or a Pearson buyout (or dump with a pick) here, which are also possibilities.

It is sort of uncertain as to whether either of 2 or 3 above are actually doable. I know lots of us have discussed these type of trades, and hope for them, but the number under performing contracts with term or high cap hits, or both, that are traded every off season is exceedingly small and it wouldn't surprise me that there are no takers and that we would need to attached significant picks to move them.

I am also not a fan of paying Horvat long term based on him being a 50 goal scorer. It seems like a bad bet, and frankly, even ignoring all of the other relevant facts, I don't think I would sign Horvat at this point. And this isn't to say I am necessarily against signing a 28 year old to a long term deal, I would just want that player to have had a sustained period of success before doing so. In fact, I'd be fine paying a bit more.

And sure, you can use a combination of dumping players for picks and buyouts to free up cap space, but at the end of the day, you are then going to need to fill that cap space with very good players, and you won't have much draft capital given the picks traded so you are going to largely need to look at the UFA market (which in the case of defense, is actually pretty poor this summer) and in that case you likely won't be getting any value of those players. So while I get that cap space could be freed up, in practice, I struggle to see how this will work.

I think MS covered all this a few pages back. Opening up capspace really shouldn't be a huge issue assuming they're open to buyouts, retention and moving some picks here and there. The issue will be a lack of assets(those picks needed to move contracts also come in handy acquiring players) to actually constructively build the team.

Yes, exactly.

What a f***ing moron.

'My performance got critical acclaim' says the guy who signed almost all of the bad contracts that f***ed over this organization, including the current too-short Pettersson deal.

Yes, he does come off like an idiot. But keep in mind he was the assistant GM and general counsel, and it likely wasn't up to him what kind of general terms he could offer.

I did miss Moser.

Peterka is a 13-minute, 30 point player. He isn’t doing anything over and above a Jimmy Vesey or Sam Gagner.

I think the team should be doing everything possible to sign Horvat. If the trade him, yes, they should be going after one prime asset with a large chance of hitting.

If they take a Lapierre/1st package or that sort of thing - which is what most people seem to want - that is absolute dog shit. It’s an idiotic trade.

Are you willing to pay Horvat as a 50 goal scorer? I am surprised you are so insistent on "doing everything possible to sign Horvat" as this would mean signing him to a huge contract the value of which would be based on a very small sample size which frankly, in my view, is not sustainable. Seems like a terrible idea to me.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Bopping over from Flyers Hell to say I've been seeing the quotes over the past couple days and holy shit, your management and ours are completely aligned right now. Some of Rutherford's language is verbatim what Fletcher was saying last winter (before he traded for Tony D and signed Ristolainen long-term). "Retool" and all that.

Now they're allegedly gonna hire a hardass TV bonehead to be coach? Tocchet was one of our potential hires, too, before we went for the guy at ESPN. Like, you can't make this shit up.

The cap situation, the broken "retool" mindset. Just...I'm sorry. We feel for you. I've never seen such mirror situations happening at once. There is no cure but a gutting of the front office or a sale. Jesus.

 

[MS]

I dont think you have a clue about goaltenders.

Im also not sure anymore if you pay attention to what our defence has done if you can't tell a difference between last year and this year.

Our goaltending has been slightly below average.

Our team defence has been AHL level.

Yeah, no.

Our defense has been shit for years and near the bottom of the HD% rankings. It might be a bit worse, but that doesn't even remotely explain one of the statistically worst team goaltending performances of this century.

Tanking teams not even trying to ice competent teams or win games haven't been able to get goaltending results this bad.

Edit : and if you want numbers to back it up, we were 31st in all-situations xGA in 2020-21, 20th in 2021-22, and are currently 22nd in 2022-23.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

As much as I think this plan that JR has outlined is stupid and is definitely going to fail, I commend him for going in front of the media and planting a flag. Now we can judge the plan on its execution, rather than the late JB years where they were determined to never made a declarative statement of intent lest it be used to demonstrate their failure later.

JR might be a misguided old dinosaur but he at least has the courage to make a choice.

 

[tradervik]

I find the comments along the lines of "this management team is inept" or "JR is the same as Benning" way over the top. The current management team has displayed a baseline competency that we never had with Benning.

Once you accept they were never going to do a complete tear-down, the big mistake from JR and company was to take make aggressive player signings/extensions (Boeser, Miller, Mikheyev) under the faulty assumption that they would be able to deal with their cap issues.

I have to wonder if anyone in Canucks management pointed out that the big moves they made would create major problems if the cap did not go up by as much as they expected. My impression is that management teams tend towards "group think" and "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down" (Japanese proverb). Wasn't Gilman fired because he argued against some of Benning's early moves?

Anyway, now we need to see if they have learned from their mistakes. JR's comment about the cap going up to $90+ million makes me nervous that they have not (not to mention a decade of failure under the ownership of the Aquilinis).

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Yeah, no.

Our defense has been shit for years and near the bottom of the HD% rankings. It might be a bit worse, but that doesn't even remotely explain one of the statistically worst team goaltending performances of this century.

Tanking teams not even trying to ice competent teams or win games haven't been able to get goaltending results this bad.

Edit : and if you want numbers to back it up, we were 31st in all-situations xGA in 2020-21, 20th in 2021-22, and are currently 22nd in 2022-23.

Again.

If you think we are just a we bit worse defensively this year you dont know what is going on.

The data not publicly available referenced by Woodley and Drance had us 3rd last, 2nd last against the rush this year.

xGA doesnt account for pre shot movement in any way.

 

[valkynax]

As much as I think this plan that JR has outlined is stupid and is definitely going to fail, I commend him for going in front of the media and planting a flag. Now we can judge the plan on its execution, rather than the late JB years where they were determined to never made a declarative statement of intent lest it be used to demonstrate their failure later.

JR might be a misguided old dinosaur but he at least has the courage to make a choice.

This is one of the few things that's still separating him from JEB.

 

[MS]

I find the comments along the lines of "this management team is inept" or "JR is the same as Benning" way over the top. The current management team has displayed a baseline competency that we never had with Benning.

Once you accept they were never going to do a complete tear-down, the big mistake from JR and company was to take make aggressive player signings/extensions (Boeser, Miller, Mikheyev) under the faulty assumption that they would be able to deal with their cap issues.

I have to wonder if anyone in Canucks management pointed out that the big moves they made would create major problems if the cap did not go up by as much as they expected. My impression is that management teams tend towards "group think" and "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down" (Japanese proverb). Wasn't Gilman fired because he argued against some of Benning's early moves?

Anyway, now we need to see if they have learned from their mistakes. JR's comment about the cap going up to $90+ million makes me nervous that they have not (not to mention a decade of failure under the ownership of the Aquilinis).

The really foundational mis-step was the Boeser deal.

You can justify the other deals pretty easily - Miller was 8th in NHL scoring last year, Mikheyev has been very solid value - and if they hadn't done the absolutely idiotic Boeser contract you could still tie everything together pretty easily.

And even if they just gave Boeser a one-year 'prove it' deal, it would still be fine and there would be financial flexibility when we said bye-bye to him this summer. But giving that deal for 3 years to a soft, slow complementary scorer was absolutely absurd.

 

[racerjoe]

The really foundational mis-step was the Boeser deal.

You can justify the other deals pretty easily - Miller was 8th in NHL scoring last year, Mikheyev has been very solid value - and if they hadn't done the absolutely idiotic Boeser contract you could still tie everything together pretty easily.

And even if they just gave Boeser a one-year 'prove it' deal, it would still be fine and there would be financial flexibility when we said bye-bye to him this summer. But giving that deal for 3 years to a soft, slow complementary scorer was absolutely absurd.

I was defending the Boeser deal at the time, but am able to admit I was wrong.

I did just see a better bounce back than we have seen.

 

[MS]

Again.

If you think we are just a we bit worse defensively this year you dont know what is going on.

The data not publicly available referenced by Woodley and Drance had us 3rd last, 2nd last against the rush this year.

xGA doesnt account for pre shot movement in any way.

This team isn't as bad defensively as the 20-21 team which was absolutely horrific and bled more odd-man rushes than any team I've ever watched. We're worse than last year but not even remotely close enough to explain going from 6th to 32nd in goalie statistics.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

The really foundational mis-step was the Boeser deal.

You can justify the other deals pretty easily - Miller was 8th in NHL scoring last year, Mikheyev has been very solid value - and if they hadn't done the absolutely idiotic Boeser contract you could still tie everything together pretty easily.

And even if they just gave Boeser a one-year 'prove it' deal, it would still be fine and there would be financial flexibility when we said bye-bye to him this summer. But giving that deal for 3 years to a soft, slow complementary scorer was absolutely absurd.

How on earth can you defend spending 7 x 8 mil on a tantrum throwing offense only winger when wingers can be had for free in trades...?

He is not a 99 point player. He is a player who had 99 points.

 

[MS]

How on earth can you defend spending 7 x 8 mil on a tantrum throwing offense only winger when wingers can be had for free in trades...?

He is not a 99 point player. He is a player who had 99 points.

He played exclusively C last year, didn't throw tantrums, and was absolutely outstanding.

The guy is basically an impulse-control-lacking weathervane for where the team is at. When things are good, he's great. When things are bad, he's awful.

$8 million for the guy who played in the 19-20 and 21-22 seasons is a totally defendable signing.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

This team isn't as bad defensively as the 20-21 team which was absolutely horrific and bled more odd-man rushes than any team I've ever watched. We're worse than last year but not even remotely close enough to explain going from 6th to 32nd in goalie statistics.

JT Miller becoming unplayable at center.

Lazar being a complete failure of a signing as 4th C.

OEL & Myers going from a matchup pair to unplayable.

xGA doesn't capture the shitshow we are icing.


I don't really understand how someone as smart as you can suddenly be so f***in off point consistently.

He played exclusively C last year, didn't throw tantrums, and was absolutely outstanding.

The guy is basically an impulse-control-lacking weathervane for where the team is at. When things are good, he's great. When things are bad, he's awful.

$8 million for the guy who played in the 19-20 and 21-22 seasons is a totally defendable signing.

And it was unsustainable. Elevated on ice shooting% and insane IPP.
And I said it was unsustainable.
And now he has show it is unsustainable.

You don't give 30 year old wingers retirement contracts. Especially when your team is capped out and has made the f***in playoffs once in a decade...

 

[drax0s]

Calling it now:

Horvat getting traded straight up for a 21/22/23yr C or RHD.

And that's it.

You calling for our Taylor Hall "the trade is one for one" moment?

Shiiiiit....

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Calling it now:

Horvat getting traded straight up for a 21/22/23yr C or RHD.

And that's it.

That is what Friedman was reporting.

Draft picks and prospects are not the target for Horvat.

Like I've been saying for a while now; People need to seriously temper their expectations on a potential Horvat trade return. The kind of players that teams acquiring Horvat for playoff run are willing to give back are not going to move the needle, those kind of young players dont get traded. They get extended.

 

[MS]

JT Miller becoming unplayable at center.

Lazar being a complete failure of a signing as 4th C.

OEL & Myers going from a matchup pair to unplayable.

xGA doesn't capture the shitshow we are icing.


I don't really understand how someone as smart as you can suddenly be so f***in off point consistently.

... and Pettersson has given a far better all-around performance and we've replaced essentially Alex Chiasson with a very good defensive forward in Kuzmanko. It isn't all one way.

Again : none of this comes even remotely close to explaining a team's goaltending stats going from 6th to 32nd.

If Demko was healthy and at .905 or something, maybe this is a legitimate argument. It isn't a legitimate argument for .879.

This is a bad defensive team. It isn't a generationally terrible defensive team, or even the worst defensive team we've iced in the last 3 seasons.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

... and Pettersson has given a far better all-around performance and we've replaced essentially Alex Chiasson with a very good defensive forward in Kuzmanko. It isn't all one way.

Again : none of this comes even remotely close to explaining a team's goaltending stats going from 6th to 32nd.

If Demko was healthy and at .905 or something, maybe this is a legitimate argument. It isn't a legitimate argument for .879.

This is a bad defensive team. It isn't a generationally terrible defensive team, or even the worst defensive team we've iced in the last 3 seasons.

I disagree.

This is as bad or worse as the 2 teams before.

The public models don't capture how bad the team is in the dzone.


Yes. Our goaltending has declined. Not to the extent you are trying to use as an excuse for the shit show on ice, not even close. Our goaltending was expected to decline.

Kuzmenko is a lot of things, but defensively he is quite an adventure for most of this season... Mikheyev has also not been as advertised... Instead of a PK ace and a defensive stalwart he has been a extremely opportunistic scorer and not much else. (Im not making any judgment on his play, he isn't skating healthy)