Management Discussion | Just Have a Plan

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Look at the buyout structure and penalties associated with the obvious targets.

Now look at that same number for retention.

Buyouts add extra years of dead cap vs retention that may help turn those targets in to viable trade assets.

If we buyout Miller, we'd be paying a minimum of $1.5 million until 2037. OEL, $2.4 million through 2031. If you retain $2.4 million in OEL or $1.5 million on Miller, every team in the league is asking about them and you save at+ years of dead cap
The only player that needs buying out is OEL. If you retain an amount that is the same as a buyout, you can trade Garland, Boeser and Miller with no issues at all and we would actually get good assets back. The difficulty is to get good assets and not retain.
 
If you took any team in the NHL and gave them .879 goaltending they are going to suck.

Look what happened to Seattle last year. Turns out they actually weren’t that bad when not getting historically terrible goaltending.

We’d be somewhere around the playoff bubble right now if Demko was playing at the level of 2020-22. Or we were getting what Markstrom provided 2018-2020.

There are obviously some major issues here but the tantrum fans are having is actually blowing my mind.


Seattle is getting .888 and. 895. They are still getting garbage goaltending. I doubt the Canucks would be in a playoff spot with that level goaltending.
 
The only player that needs buying out is OEL. If you retain an amount that is the same as a buyout, you can trade Garland, Boeser and Miller with no issues at all and we would actually get good assets back. The difficulty is to get good assets and not retain.

Yup. OEL is the only guy I see us having a hard time moving with retention. The rest of them you can get value back for that makes sense for the future. Buying out anyone else is mountains of dumb.
 
Is there a team that wants flamingOEL even at that price? That’s illogical.
The going rate right now for a 30-50 point defenseman at any age is over $6 million in the low end.

$2.4 million retained for OEL for the duration of his contract is incredibly attractive as it puts him at or around $5.6 ish million with the percentage already retained by Arizona. That comes off the books in 2026/2027

But if we buy him out it's very ugly. It starts at $2.3 million, then two years at $4.7 million then an easy $2.1 million through 2031.

If there's any way to avoid THAT nightmare of cap hell. You retain and save yourself the issue
 
Our tank was ruined the minute we signed the Boeser and Miller contracts. Though it seems they are trying their best, the team constructed is underperforming right now and they are mid-gauntlet. The weaker opponents are coming.
Dude if we didn’t sign Miller and Boeser, we are still not Chicago bad. They are like a 50ish point team. Do you know how f***ing bad that is? If you want that you will need the Abby Canucks in the NHL.
 
Teams don’t tank/rebuild when they have a quality core of mid-20s players like this team has. Ever. There isn’t a single case in NHL history that I can see.

Teams tank when they’re at the end of a competitive cycle and have zero prime-age (22-28 or so) players and zero hope of competing. Chicago and Montreal were in that position. SJ is in that position and should be selling everything. Nashville will be in that position in a year or two. We are not in that position. And no owner ever would sign off on blowing up a team from the position we are in.

And I’ll keep repeating that we actually have one of the lower amounts committed to 30+ players long-term in the league. Fan perspective is very skewed here.

I’m not sure if that’s true. Isn’t that exactly what BUF just did by trading Eichel, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Hall, etc.

They traded them all, built around Dahlin and the draft picks they got back, and tanked for 2 years to add Power and some other good prospects, and now they’re looking okay.

If we’re going to tank for 2-3 years we’d have to trade Horvat, Kuzmenko, Schenn, and anyone else that may have positive value. Build around Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, Podkolzin, and whoever we get back.
 
Again, the intent wasn't to tank and rebuild but the effect was.

- we finished at the bottom of the league for 5 years.
- we had 6 top-10 selections in the draft.
- the only players remaining from the 2015 playoff team at the start of 19-20 (the year we sort-of made the playoffs next) were Edler, Tanev, and Horvat (a rookie in 2015). Basically the entire roster was turned over in 4 years.

That wasn't a re-tool, in terms of how it turned out. A bunch of stupid contracts signed during the unintentional tank just forced them to bleed veterans in 2020 at a point where they should have been augmenting the young core they'd created to move forward.



Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, Kuzmenko, Horvat. Miller is late 20s.

As I've said, I wouldn't be trading any of them. I'd be far more aggressive in terms of moving cap than they've been and signing both Kuzmenko and Horvat.

Ya... I don't see it, particularly with JT Miller at $8 mil unless we can assume at 33+ he's going to be a 60+ point player.
The real other problem is there's nothing in the Canucks system save for a couple of fill-in type wingers.
Even if we assume the Canucks could flush Boeser and Myers ... and if Pearson and Poolman are basically out for all of next year...

Horvat $7.5 mil, Kuzmenko $6.5 mil = $14 ... that would leave the Canucks with 16 players and about $15 mil in Cap space to fill 8 spots.

Worse, the defense would look like:

OEL, Hughes, Stillman... ???? ?????? ??????????

The only shot they may have is to try to time everything for being able to buy-out OEL in 2 and a bit years.

If the cap is up $4 mil that basically washes out OEL's cost for a few years but, again, they have no prospects coming. No top 4 d-men on the horizon, none in the system and they don't have the cap room to bid on them.

They aren't accumulating picks... so maybe a couple shots this year but that's it. 🤷

Here's the top UFA d-men 2023 btw:
1673926739989.png
 
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Yup. OEL is the only guy I see us having a hard time moving with retention. The rest of them you can get value back for that makes sense for the future. Buying out anyone else is mountains of dumb.
OEL is playing like Clendenning so he’s like below replacement level. Yeah nobody is going to want to play 4M for that.
Ya... I don't see it, particularly with JT Miller at $8 mil unless we can assume at 33+ he's going to be a 60+ point player.
The real other problem is there's nothing in the Canucks system save for a couple of fill-in type wingers.
Even if we assume the Canucks could flush Boeser and Myers ... and if Pearson and Poolman are basically out for all of next year...

Horvat $7.5 mil, Kuzmenko $6.5 mil = $14 ... that would leave the Canucks with 16 players and about $15 mil in Cap space to fill 8 spots.

Worse, the defense would look like:

OEL, Hughes, Stillman... ???? ?????? ??????????

The only shot they may have is to try to time everything for being able to buy-out OEL in 2 and a bit years.

If the cap is up $4 mil that basically washes out OEL's cost for a few years but, again, they have no prospects coming. No top 4 d-men on the horizon, none in the system and they don't have the cap room to bid on them.

They aren't accumulating picks... so maybe a couple shots this year but that's it. 🤷

Here's the top UFA d-men 2023 btw:
View attachment 636565
The cap is going to be 90+ 3 years down the road. 8M cap in terms of cap% is going to be obviously lower. Based on inflation, ppg players should be paid around 9M. Miller would not need to be ppg to be worth his contract.
 
The only player that needs buying out is OEL. If you retain an amount that is the same as a buyout, you can trade Garland, Boeser and Miller with no issues at all and we would actually get good assets back. The difficulty is to get good assets and not retain.
It is absolutely not the same as retaining on a contract wtf.

You buy him out our next three years are 2+ million $4+ million then 2+ Milliken through 2031.

Retain and it's only through 2027. Seriously the idea of a buyout and that much dead cap for 4 extra years being preferable is not only insane it's outright stupid after years of whining about the dead cap for Luongo
 
It is absolutely not the same as retaining on a contract wtf.

You buy him out our next three years are 2+ million $4+ million then 2+ Milliken through 2031.

Retain and it's only through 2027. Seriously the idea of a buyout and that much dead cap for 4 extra years being preferable is not only insane it's outright stupid after years of whining about the dead cap for Luongo
Are uou repeating what I said?
 
Are uou repeating what I said?
I'm...not sure I am?

The way I read your response is that buying out would be the better way to go over retention which makes no sense to me.

If I'm misunderstanding I'll absolutely apologize for and to that
 
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On goaltending. LA are legitimately bottom 4 in Team Save Percentage and also like 8th in team Shooting percentage. Blaming goaltending is weak.
There are teams with garbage goaltending that are still in playoff positions. If you have a good roster, that’s possible. The Canucks do not have a good roster.

And that’s ignoring that a large reason the goaltending is so bad is that the Canucks’ defensive play is simply horrific.
 
Again, the intent wasn't to tank and rebuild but the effect was.

- we finished at the bottom of the league for 5 years.
- we had 6 top-10 selections in the draft.
- the only players remaining from the 2015 playoff team at the start of 19-20 (the year we sort-of made the playoffs next) were Edler, Tanev, and Horvat (a rookie in 2015). Basically the entire roster was turned over in 4 years.

That wasn't a re-tool, in terms of how it turned out. A bunch of stupid contracts signed during the unintentional tank just forced them to bleed veterans in 2020 at a point where they should have been augmenting the young core they'd created to move forward.



Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, Kuzmenko, Horvat. Miller is late 20s.

As I've said, I wouldn't be trading any of them. I'd be far more aggressive in terms of moving cap than they've been and signing both Kuzmenko and Horvat.
Well the team he inherited had a lot of old players. Most of them retiring and needing to be replaced would lead to an essentially new team. I guess rebuild when viewed in the more traditional sense is when you just decided to trade EVERYONE and hit that hard reset button.
 
Seattle is getting .888 and. 895. They are still getting garbage goaltending. I doubt the Canucks would be in a playoff spot with that level goaltending.

Again, they are .008 worse than league average. Last year they were .024 worse than league average. They’ve improved significantly. Last year’s goaltending was comparable to ours this year.

I agree that we wouldn’t be in the playoffs with their current goaltending - they are obviously a far superior coached team.
 
Well the team he inherited had a lot of old players. Most of them retiring and needing to be replaced would lead to an essentially new team. I guess rebuild when viewed in the more traditional sense is when you just decided to trade EVERYONE and hit that hard reset button.

I mean, obviously. But the effect was exactly the same - lots of terrible finishes, entire roster turned over, lots of high draft picks, new young core going forward.
 
"I'll say the obvious. we all want the first overall pick”

It sounds like he wants to tank but ownership doesn't.

Jr has done stuff like tank on a good draft year like he did in 2003 and in 2013 knowing you can add that so player that can get you many playoff runs.
 
@MS ,you can’t just isolate svp. and assume it’s only bad because of goaltending. Sure, our goaltending has been bad, but our defense has been equally bad. Even with average goaltending we are going to have a poor svp and be out of the playoffs.
 
@MS ,you can’t just isolate svp. and assume it’s only bad because of goaltending. Sure, our goaltending has been bad, but our defense has been equally bad. Even with average goaltending we are going to have a poor svp and be out of the playoffs.
I saw a tweet where it stated the Nucks are getting slightly below-average goaltending based on the quality of shots the team gives up.
 
Some teams will have inconsistent goaltending, with a bad average. 1-3GA with a bi weekly 8GA route.

Nucks have consistently bad goaltending. Every game it's 4-5 against. a 2 goal performance will never get them a point.
 
I saw a tweet where it stated the Nucks are getting slightly below-average goaltending based on the quality of shots the team gives up.
If that's true then that's a failure of statistics.

There's no doubt that are problems our a lot deeper than just goaltending and our D is entirely too permissive.

But we have had Demko play terribly and then get hurt, and then have been employing two goaltenders who weren't even employable in this league until last year.

It's really interesting to see @MS do a big about face in terms of what he wants to do, because he's become more conservative with regards to rebuilding than I am. But he's not wrong that there's a loooot going wrong here, but goaltending and coaching are making this look a lot worse than it is, and we're all pretty emotional about it.

The Devils last year had an appalling save percentage and used like 8 goalies and it netted them the 2nd overall pick. This year, Vanecek is giving them .914 and they are a toppish team in the league.

People who didn't play don't understand how bad goaltending affects a team. It's not a bunch of automatons who play the same way and the results are different. When you don't trust that you will get saves, you start trying to prevent any kind of shots at all, and putting increased pressure on yourself to score, which makes you useless because you're trying to do too much.

The way management kneecapped Bruce means there's not much systems buy-in either.

I think we need to move on from Bo and get what we can for him, bottom out this year, and retool. So basically a hard rebuild for the next 8 months, and then start building in earnest again. MS is correct that no team is going to dump Petey and Hughes and Demko so they can be pathetic for 8 years, it just doesn't make sense.
 
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