LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016 Draft) V

[93LEAFS]

Without looking up the datapoints one to one, I'd venture a guess that at the moment FEL is less likely to have high quality north american prospects in it (choosing FEL instead of AHL). This might be the reason for skewed stats. Or it's just off by statistical chance (chance by far greater in this sample size than in Desjardins' numbers).

What if we think that this sample size of 11 is now extremely out of date. Since it's only the same effect on sample size (reducing the sample size to 20% of it's original size) we only look at last three years. Looking at these more recent NHL prospects that would have made it as datapoints are Barkov and Ristolainen, who both would have been closer to the Desjardins' numbers than these new and improved numbers. And what happens when you add in this season? You get Joonas Donskoi with 0.56 personal translatability factor, which will up the national translatability factor by 0,05.

I'm not disputing your claims, there are problems with the small sample sizes. What I do think Laine is doing is beyond impressive and I think he will exceed Vollman's numbers, but bashing Matthew's league quality or performance by some in this thread is getting absurd. Some balance is needed. I hope my team gets Laine, he looks like the best scoring winger in the draft since Ovechkin, but I think its within reason to question how it will transfer over and how long, especially when compared to the other prospect people constantly compare him against.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well it's the truth. NLA is the inferior league. The Volman thing is completely useless in this situation (sample size, ancient stats..)
The fact that Laine is the best player on the ice in tougher games than Matthews has ever played in has to mean something.

World championships are going to be interesting when they're on the same stage again (Laine won round 1 in the WJCs)

Matthews won at both under 18's he was at. So its at least 1-1.

 

[armyjoe]

Well AM should go first if he is clearly better than eichel. Hard to believe that tho.

Lol at people comparing Laine to granlund, teravainen etc.
Btw who did have better linemates Laine or am? Or higher icetime. Or easier opponents?

 

[44]

Matthews won at both under 18's he was at. So its at least 1-1.

No point in looking at stuff that happened over a year ago. Laine has made huge improvements in his game this year. Way bigger than Matthews as he has caught him in development

 

[kunekune]

http://www.urheilulehti.fi/jaakiekk...uurimpaan-ongelmaan-uskomatonta-suorittamista

65 touches on puck today. No one else was even close.

 

[QnebO]

Some one should make video of all Laine playoff goals. Or all goals. He is sniping them all basically. Many times creating the chance by himself, too.

 

[Jussi]

You've insulted him for ever saying a player will ever be on his level. Shame.

He'll just have to raise his level. Again.

 

[sooni]

Selänne played only 11games 1989-90 before he got injured in Finland. You cant ever EVER compare hes talent with ANYONE here. Remember that he made 76 goals 56 assists 132 points at hes first year. If you think that Laine would make like Ovie 81 games 52 goals 54 assists 106 points at hes first season you have lost your mind.

Yes and that was so different era. Still no one before him and after him haven't put that kind of numbers in his first season in NHL, not even close. Still, he was actually 22 years old in his rookie season so it's little different play rookie 18 years old.[/QUOTE]

still someone had balls to say that Laine is same kind of talent than Macdavid is. Macdavid played hes first season 1.07 ppg and he was injured a lot of time which loved hes poins because he had to take himself to shape back. We actually have like hmm... Crosby, Malkin, Jagr, Kane which are at moment playing and having more than point for a game producers for their careers right? Crosby is actually fifth 1.327 ppg. That is a freaking lot, actually he is fifth after Gretzky, Lemiux, Bossy and Orr.

So yes Laine is good but you never ever cant compare hes talent to Macdavid who is close to Crosbys lvl already with hes ppg. in nhl.

 

[snipes]

I think I would take Laine at #1. Not sure any other team would though.

 

[Hagged]

I'm not disputing your claims, there are problems with the small sample sizes. What I do think Laine is doing is beyond impressive and I think he will exceed Vollman's numbers, but bashing Matthew's league quality or performance by some in this thread is getting absurd. Some balance is needed. I hope my team gets Laine, he looks like the best scoring winger in the draft since Ovechkin, but I think its within reason to question how it will transfer over and how long, especially when compared to the other prospect people constantly compare him against.

I hope I didn't come off as insulting Matthews' performance. In my view Matthews can be expected to have around 50 points in his rookie season while I expect Laine to be around 40 points. How I come to these numbers is by Desjardin's numbers and adjusting by age (around 25% and 17% increase per year at ages 17 and 18, respectively).

This way we have a sample size of 75 for FEL and 30 for Switzerland in use. While it can lead to an error due to KHL effect on league quality, the error should be quite consistent considering both are euro leagues. And as we have the translatability factors one-way and average age over 21 by Desjardin's methods, I expect both to have increased personal translatability factor due to career curve.

However, I have a gut feeling Laine's shot will make it possible for him to translate his scoring even better even though from translatability factors they should have similar difference in goal scoring from the get go (20% less scoring from Laine). And what I absolutely don't expect to see is Laine having a 17 point, 8 goal season. 17 is going to be closer to his goal total, at least that's my best guess.

 

[IFK]

Also there have happened something in USDP and players make have put lot more points just in a few years than like there it before. There is only 3 players in best 20 in points before 2012 and those players are Grimaldi, Kane and Kessel? Then there are now Alex Tuch, Tyler Kelleher, Luke Kirwan almost same points than Kane and Kessel.

 

[QnebO]

Transfer ability indexes mean nothing on player aged 17. It is better for Average joe about in his prime Jumping in to NHL. Why? Because Laine will be that much better in say 5 years from now.

 

[Ippenator]

There is absolutely no comparison. Did you watch Granlund when he was playing? Have you watched Laine?

Granlund was of course hyped in media, but he wasn't anything better than say Teravainen a couple of years later. Young kid with lots of hype but he wasn't a world beater at 18. If you went by the hype, then I'm sorry for you. But nobody who knew hockey would think Granlund will rise to the absolute top in NHL (his frame alone doesn't allow it). Laine is on a very different level, Puljujarvi is way above Granny too.

I've watched Liiga hockey when Selanne and then Koivu were up and coming stars. They weren't this level at this age. The only one I can think of is Barkov, but he is a different type of player who should have went 1st overall.

Laine is the best player in the draft.

Amen. Wise writing. No need to write more. Case closed.

 

[IFK]

Yes and that was so different era. Still no one before him and after him haven't put that kind of numbers in his first season in NHL, not even close. Still, he was actually 22 years old in his rookie season so it's little different play rookie 18 years old.

still someone had balls to say that Laine is same kind of talent than Macdavid is. Macdavid played hes first season 1.07 ppg and he was injured a lot of time which loved hes poins because he had to take himself to shape back. We actually have like hmm... Crosby, Malkin, Jagr, Kane which are at moment playing and having more than point for a game producers for their careers right? Crosby is actually fifth 1.327 ppg. That is a freaking lot, actually he is fifth after Gretzky, Lemiux, Bossy and Orr.

So yes Laine is good but you never ever cant compare hes talent to Macdavid who is close to Crosbys lvl already with hes ppg. in nhl.[/QUOTE]

I wont say that, no one is Eichel, Matthews, Laine, all are so far away McDavid level. I can say Laine has better shot than McDavid and someone can maybe some other thing better, but McDavid in full person and player is just a different level.

 

[93LEAFS]

Also there have happened something in USDP and players make have put lot more points just in a few years than like there it before. There is only 3 players in best 20 in points before 2012 and those players are Grimaldi, Kane and Kessel? Then there are now Alex Tuch, Tyler Kelleher, Luke Kirwan almost same points than Kane and Kessel.

Go by PPG, but USNDP hasn't been around that long. This seems to make more sense. I have a feeling certain exhibition games weren't tracked early on, and the USHL wasn't fully developed til recently. Either way, can't wait for April 30th to find out if Leafs get one of the two, and then the World Championships to watch them vs higher level competition.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/leagu...SDP&leagueteam=&sort=&nation=&name=&order=PPG

 

[Ippenator]

He's got that Kobe Bryant style of game

Why the hell use some funny basketball example, when the truth is that statistically it is exactly Ovechkin type of game. Of course without the choking in the most meaningful games...

 

[IFK]

Go by PPG, but USNDP hasn't been around that long. This seems to make more sense. I have a feeling certain exhibition games weren't tracked early on, and the USHL wasn't fully developed til recently. Either way, can't wait for April 30th to find out if Leafs get one of the two, and then the World Championships to watch them vs higher level competition.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/leagu...SDP&leagueteam=&sort=&nation=&name=&order=PPG

Still, like Sonny Milano, really. And someone cry here that Matthews wasn't have good linemates WJC but there was like Milano and White 2 older first rounder in USA team when Finland have too one of the youngest and non drafted in same line and one 2nd rounder.

Also Keller, Bracco close to Kane tels that there have had been easier put up points. Still, don't say that Matthews points aren't good but i think 10 years ago those would be much lower.

 

[Booster*]

How people neglect Laines astonishing developement curve is beyond me.

Matthews is steadily becoming better, like a "normal" top prospect while Laine improves so much all the time, from month to month even, and always excels in the most important games.

The fact that Matthews has been #1 for so long, and now it´s fairly even actually speaks so much for Laine, i dont really see a roof to his potential because he just keeps improving.

Over a course of 5 years of NHL playing and training it´s likely that all aspects of his game will improve a lot.

Shooting will be a lot better. Which itself is mind blowing, skating will be top priority and will improve drasticly and add 20-25 pounds of muscle to that, maybe an inch in height. Hockey iq, puckhandling and so on, he will be an absolute monster.

He is ready and determined to do all the hard work it requires.

Think about all these aspect and see that player in front of you... by then he will be turning 23.

 

[jonlin]

First off all Finnish idiots... im from Finland too and i think Laine is good but still wake up. Everyone hyped Granlund same way after one dreamy World Championships and great Gold with HIFK. How is had it ended again?? Same with freaking Armia, Teräväinen etc.. all over hyped. Really.

Laine is not yet played even one game in NHL. He is good prospect. He will never be like Gretzky, Lemieux, Crubaby. Macdavid kind of talent. There is only one of them in the freaking wolrd in 10 years so on. Reality is that he is good and sometimes even i say that he is like a god. Still there is talents like "next one"... Lindros who lost it. Still reality is if all gm.s have said that Macdavid is like talent like 99. You have to admit that he is like 99 and remember that Laine is great. Good talent like maybe Jagr, Selänne, Kane, Toews etc. But he is not Macdavid and that is nevergonnahappen.

Im huge Oilers fan and i love big prospects. But still there is alot Finnish idiots who are out of line with reality because of hype that is only happening here.

Please... Granlund, Teräväinen and Armia? Dont compare midgets with Laine. There is something special with Laine. He is a big kid with talent. He has the talent and size. When he learns to use his body and gains explosiveness and speed, he could actually become something special. Size you cant teach. Goalscoring ability you cant either. The guys you mentioned lack thoose.I`m with you on the "dont overhype". But please - dont downplay his talents

 

[JA]

Some one should make video of all Laine playoff goals. Or all goals. He is sniping them all basically. Many times creating the chance by himself, too.

I'm just waiting for the series to end.

Hopefully, Tappara can close out the series in 6. On the other hand, if it goes to 7, we'll probably get a few extra highlights.

 

[Mestaruus]

NHL
--- Huge Gap
KHL
--- Some Gap
SEL
FEL
--- Little Gap
AHL
--- Some Gap
NLA
Czech League
---
Rest

As far as what league is better than the other, this is how I see it and I try to take the homerism out of it and I'm going to admit SEL is slightly better than FEL, but it's so close that the leagues belong in same tier.

NLA is more comparable to Czech league than FEL in my opinion.

 

[93LEAFS]

Please... Granlund, Teräväinen and Armia? Dont compare midgets with Laine. There is something special with Laine. He is a big kid with talent. He has the talent and size. When he learns to use his body and gains explosiveness and speed, he could actually become something special. Size you cant teach. Goalscoring ability you cant either. The guys you mentioned lack thoose.I`m with you on the "dont overhype". But please - dont downplay his talents

Armia is far from a midget, he's 6'3 205. Atleast know your own players, when you start hyping another one up.

 

[snipes]

NHL
--- Huge Gap
KHL
--- Some Gap
SEL
FEL
--- Little Gap
AHL
--- Some Gap
NLA
Czech League
---
Rest

As far as what league is better than the other, this is how I see it and I try to take the homerism out of it and I'm going to admit SEL is slightly better than FEL, but it's so close that the leagues belong in same tier.

NLA is more comparable to Czech league than FEL in my opinion.

I would agree with that.

 

[BB88]

I'm not disputing your claims, there are problems with the small sample sizes. What I do think Laine is doing is beyond impressive and I think he will exceed Vollman's numbers, but bashing Matthew's league quality or performance by some in this thread is getting absurd. Some balance is needed. I hope my team gets Laine, he looks like the best scoring winger in the draft since Ovechkin, but I think its within reason to question how it will transfer over and how long, especially when compared to the other prospect people constantly compare him against.

Can I ask how much does linemates/icetime average/pp time matter in these sites you use, and how do they take account development during the season?


Good article to tell more about their use during the season.
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2...-nhl-entry-draft-auston-matthews-leafs-oilers

Patrik Laine's case for first overall,

"In my own analysis of the European leagues, Finland came out on top of Switzerland by a wide margin."

"Matthews looks like a monster here, and he is. One huge factor is that he was on the top line the whole season with Roger Nilsson (12-40—52), who placed fifth in scoring in the NLA, and Ryan Keller who added 30 points. Matthews was also on the first power play unit at every opportunity.
Still, the numbers the 18-year-old put up in a good European league is very impressive indeed. Matthews was the top performer in the playoffs for an under-achieving Zurich team, but one would have expected him, and the team, to do better in the post-season. Matthews placed fifth in goal-scoring in the regular season, but was held scoreless in the playoffs."

"While not as impressive as Matthews' numbers at the first glance, Laine has played on mostly on Tappara's third line (according to my Finnish friends) with some time on the second trio. His most common linemates were Jukka Peltola, with 39 points, and Pekka Saravo, with 10. This puts his feat in a different perspective.

While dominating the playoffs (he leads all players in goals with eight), he has still been on the second line. Placing 18th in goal-scoring after the regular season, Laine now leads the playoffs with goals to spare."

Just today we saw Laine on the 1st line and we all know what happened.

 

[WhoseLainesItAnyway]

NHL
--- Huge Gap
KHL
--- Some Gap
SEL
FEL
--- Little Gap
AHL
--- Some Gap
NLA
Czech League
---
Rest

As far as what league is better than the other, this is how I see it and I try to take the homerism out of it and I'm going to admit SEL is slightly better than FEL, but it's so close that the leagues belong in same tier.

NLA is more comparable to Czech league than FEL in my opinion.

They're all very close together.. AHL, SEL, FEL, NLA aren't that different. Here's how it goes.

NHL
--- Huge Gap
KHL
--- Some Gap
AHL
--- Small Gap
SEL
--- Small Gap
FEL
--- Small Gap
NLA
--- Small Gap
Czech ELH
--- Small Gap
DEL
---
Rest