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LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

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psycho_dad said:
You're entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to think it's an ignorant opinion.
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Pegging him as a 50 goal scorer is monumental expectations. Only one player in the last 4 years has scored 50 goals.

It's going to kill a lot of people if he only ends up as a 30-40 goal scorer in the NHL. :laugh:
 
psycho_dad said:
Why? Because Ovechkin takes a serious beating?

Why is it unfair and to whom?
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It's unfair to Laine because people run away with those comparisons. And then if he doesn't become a 50 goal scorer, but instead a 30 goal guy, people say he "failed to live up to expectations".

I saw it in Toronto when Anton Stralman was called the next Lidstrom. He didn't become that player, got mocked mercilessly and took a long time to get his game going.
 
Prime Laine will score 20 PP goals regularly. That is almost given due to his shot. As to how many goals on even strength is hard to project at this point. If his skating improves tremendously I can see him becoming a perennial 50 goal scorer. In order to do that he'll need to start scoring off the rush more frequently and his current skating just isn't cut out for that.

Otherwise he'll be a PP specialist averaging from 30 to 40 goals a season over his career, which isn't bad at all.
 
Jeepers Creeper said:
Prime Laine will score 20 PP goals regularly. That is almost given due to his shot. As to how many goals on even strength is hard to project at this point. If his skating improves tremendously I can see him becoming a perennial 50 goal scorer. In order to do that he'll need to start scoring off the rush more frequently and his current skating just isn't cut out for that.

Otherwise he'll be a PP specialist averaging from 30 to 40 goals a season over his career, which isn't bad at all.
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Ovechkin doesn't even score 20 PPG per season on a regular basis. He's only had 20 or more PPG 4 times in 11 seasons. Stamkos, maybe the 2nd best goalscorer since he's been in the league has only had 1 20 goal season. The year Stamkos scored 60, he only had 12 PPG.

People don't just score 20 goals on the powerplay. I'm telling you right now, if Laine is primarily a PP specialist, he'll struggle in this league. People also tend to overestimate how much better one's skating can get. You can improve for sure, but if you're not an elite skater, you'll never become one. Players like Tavares, Barkov are a lot better than they were, but still in the average range.
 
FrozenJagrt said:
It's unfair to Laine because people run away with those comparisons. And then if he doesn't become a 50 goal scorer, but instead a 30 goal guy, people say he "failed to live up to expectations".

I saw it in Toronto when Anton Stralman was called the next Lidstrom. He didn't become that player, got mocked mercilessly and took a long time to get his game going.
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If you know that some expectations are way too high or not to be really expected, you should just ignore them. Listen to your own expectations and if he doesn't live up to them then he's failed you. For me I'm gonna say he will be a +35 goal scorer, but his ceiling is somewhere around 50. If he doesn't get to 50, then I won't be disappointed.

It doesn't really matter if few guys give him too high expectations, he doesn't fail on big audience's expectations. When a larger group have common numbers for him, and he doesn't reach it, then we all can be little disappointed. I know there's a some Leafs fans and other people who wait for Laine to fail, since he has been hyped so much. And then they come here and say it.
 
Bourdon said:
Ovechkin doesn't even score 20 PPG per season on a regular basis. He's only had 20 or more PPG 4 times in 11 seasons. Stamkos, maybe the 2nd best goalscorer since he's been in the league has only had 1 20 goal season. The year Stamkos scored 60, he only had 12 PPG.

People don't just score 20 goals on the powerplay. I'm telling you right now, if Laine is primarily a PP specialist, he'll struggle in this league. People also tend to overestimate how much better one's skating can get. You can improve for sure, but if you're not an elite skater, you'll never become one. Players like Tavares, Barkov are a lot better than they were, but still in the average range.
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Would have thought Ovechkin scored at least 20 on PP in each of his 50+ goal seasons. Stamkos as well. Safe to assume my projection was too optimistic then, but he'll still score 20 on PP pretty frequently. His shot is that good.

As for your comment on his skating I don't disagree. I was just saying his skating needs to improve if he is going to score 50. He can no longer rely on shots from the point to be a premier goal scorer, he'll need to be much more versatile in his goal scoring.
 
John Tavares was the best goal-scorer the CHL had seen in a very long time, yet, he hasn't scored more than 38 in an NHL season so far.

And yes, like Laine, concerns were brought up about his skating.
 
FrozenJagrt said:
It's unfair to Laine because people run away with those comparisons. And then if he doesn't become a 50 goal scorer, but instead a 30 goal guy, people say he "failed to live up to expectations".

I saw it in Toronto when Anton Stralman was called the next Lidstrom. He didn't become that player, got mocked mercilessly and took a long time to get his game going.
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It's not a big deal if he doesn't live up to the expectations of some people. If he does not fulfill my expectations, sky is not going to fall for either him or me. It really matters nothing.

What we are talking about here is predictions based on available data. When a 100m sprinter breaks world records in junior agegroup, we kinda expect him to become a very good 100m sprinter in adults at some point too. The expectations are based on something concrete, something measurable.

We don't say the guy who has never ran before is just as likely to break that world record than this guy who has been doing it in juniors. Because they have a body of work that can be compared with Usain Bolt and everyone else, and we can see where they are at right now but can't see into the future.

The reason why people are predicting Laine to actually challenge the top of the world in goal scoring is very simple. He has done so already in his earlier years compared to these guys who are on the top, so it's fair to predict that there's a higher than usual probability that he will also do it in the adult years, in the NHL and internationally.

I feel like I am watching something unfold that a lot of NA posters do not grasp due to reference. You should never say "it mean's nothing to do good in WHC at 18" which seems to be the argument of a bunch of people here...it means nothing when it's done in tournaments you don't understand? He SHATTERED Jaromir Jagrs record in WHC, he put every single one of european players EVER behind him with his pre-draft year. That is the reason for the hype, and that is a VERY valid reason. He has SHOWN his ability at this age, and it trumps the ability of others before him at that age. Expecting him to keep on that same path does not make one unrealistic at all.

Yes, it's a HUGE prediction that someone will score 35 goals in their first season or that they will become a 50-60 goal scorer in the NHL. It's extremely rare. And predictions like that are only for extremely rare talents. When you are the best prospect ever out of europe especially goal scoring wise, you ARE an extremely rare talent by definition.

I'm not suggesting Aleksi Saarela will score 50 goals in one season in the NHL. I'm predicting that Patrik Laine will, because he IS that rare of a talent. Just because some people in NA (and in finland) don't understand his achievements and level of play this year doesn't matter at all. If you look back at any european picks historically, this is the guy you should consider as the most potential goal scorer of all time from that continent at least.

It's in no way unfair to him. It's the logical expectation. He might never achieve it, but AT THIS POINT IN TIME, there is and has not been a more plausible 50+ goal scorer coming from europe, including Ovechkin.

Just because we know Ovechkin actually reached that number doesn't mean squat to who he was at 18. He was a world class scoring prospect and he turned out to be a world class scorer. Laine already at 18 has turned out to be a world class scorer (which Ovy was just developing into at that age), not just a prospect. So why is it "better" to assume that he'll regress rather than progress?

It makes no sense.
 
Passchendaele said:
John Tavares was the best goal-scorer the CHL had seen in a very long time, yet, he hasn't scored more than 38 in an NHL season so far.

And yes, like Laine, concerns were brought up about his skating.
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And now there is nothing wrong with Tavares skating and he is one of the best players in the league.

And Tavares has nothing on Laine when it comes to shot.
 
psycho_dad said:
And now there is nothing wrong with Tavares skating and he is one of the best players in the league.

And Tavares has nothing on Laine when it comes to shot.
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We will revisit this thread in April of 2017 after Laine has scored 25+ goals! Book it! :yo:
 
illone84 said:
We will revisit this thread in April of 2017 after Laine has scored 25+ goals! Book it! :yo:
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I don't disagree with a 25ish goal rookie season, though I believe he'll have a slow start to the season.

But this "better than Ovechkin" insanity has to stop. Ovechkin is a top-five goal scorer all-time.
 
FinPanda said:
I think he can score maybe 35-40 goals in his prime. 15 in his first season would be good.
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If this is truely the case, it'll be a massive dissapointment, most of Finland expects him to be better than era-adjusted Selänne. Maybe not at the same level as Teemu's peak years, but up there scoring 40+ regularly
 
Laine's stickhandling impresses me a lot personally. He specifically evades the opponents' sticks' movements which is something I don't really see except by the very best players.
 
FrozenJagrt said:
It's unfair to Laine because people run away with those comparisons. And then if he doesn't become a 50 goal scorer, but instead a 30 goal guy, people say he "failed to live up to expectations".

I saw it in Toronto when Anton Stralman was called the next Lidstrom. He didn't become that player, got mocked mercilessly and took a long time to get his game going.
Click to expand...

Leafs fans expecting some 7th round pick to become the next Lidstrom really says a lot... And as asinine as it is, it's completely believable given the context.

Having said that, it has nothing to do with Laine, who is universally recognized as an undisputed top 2 player on the planet in his draft class.
 
FrozenJagrt said:
It's unfair to Laine because people run away with those comparisons. And then if he doesn't become a 50 goal scorer, but instead a 30 goal guy, people say he "failed to live up to expectations".
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They likely will be lining up to do so, yes. Won't fit through the thread doorway all at once.
 
I don't believe that Laine will become as good of a player as Ovi in the NHL. But a 30+ goal scorer per year is realistic. We shall see.

:handclap:
 
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If Laine maintains top 6 playing time on the Jets with one of Scheif and Little as his C's and with regular time on the PP, which he should. I think he can definitely pot 25+ and land somewhere in the 45+ point range in his rookie season. That is bare minimum expectation so long as he can stay there, which again is likely. A lot of rookies don't get that kind of playing time out of the gate.

My guess is Laine starts on the 2nd line with Scheifele as his C in a more sheltered offensive role, likely heavy offensive zone deployment. I think he'll have PP1 time pretty quickly, with the focus of the PP being on Laine's shot, similar to how the Caps focus on getting the puck to Ovi a lot.
 
Le Golie said:
Leafs fans expecting some 7th round pick to become the next Lidstrom really says a lot... And as asinine as it is, it's completely believable given the context.

Having said that, it has nothing to do with Laine, who is universally recognized as an undisputed top 2 player on the planet in his draft class.
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Lol. The Swedes and his coaches were where the Stralman = Lidstrom crap came from, not Leafs fans.
 
Wilfrd said:
If this is truely the case, it'll be a massive dissapointment, most of Finland expects him to be better than era-adjusted Selänne. Maybe not at the same level as Teemu's peak years, but up there scoring 40+ regularly
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I really hope that's not what most of Finland expect him to do. It's not easy to score 40 goals in todays NHL. But who knows..
 
Hard not to get hyped after watching this fast paced highlight reel. This player was such a joy to watch in Tappara throughout the year.

 
I might be biased as a WPG Jets fan but I don't think I can ever remember seeing such a deadly shot from a draft eligible before. Considering the kid was 17 playing against men for most of those goals. It's possible his shot doesn't get much better, or maybe it continues to improve, but either way - wow so impressive.
 
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