LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

Is Laine really generational? That means Laine is essentially McDavid in overall talent and projected impact. Those are some pretty hefty expectations you're placing on the young man.

Crazy to think that the past 2 drafts have had 4 generational players!!

I mean, if Laine is potentially one, eichel and Matthews clearly are as well



Do I really need to say that was Sarcasm ?

 

[Plural]

Is Laine really generational? That means Laine is essentially McDavid in overall talent and projected impact. Those are some pretty hefty expectations you're placing on the young man.

If we go by the most common interpretation of "generational prospect" then no. He's not. He's probably a grade A prospect with elite offensive tools.

Some people like to think that Laine is generational since he had the best international year for any draft eligible player ever. Or at least super close to it. But the thing is, that's not what makes one a generational prospect. Laine has always been promising, talented and noticed player. But he's never been on the radar like Crosby, Lindros and McDavid have.

Sometimes prospects turn out to be generational players though. Like Lidstrom, Jagr or Ovechkin. I don't think any of those guys were "generational prospects". But it's easily argued that they are generational players.

The whole generational moniker is bit silly anyways. People have so varying definitions for it.

 

[vaiski]

Is Laine really generational? That means Laine is essentially McDavid in overall talent and projected impact. Those are some pretty hefty expectations you're placing on the young man.

I'd say Laine seems to have potential to be the best goal scorer of his generation. True generational players have been viewed as slam dunks since they were like twelve years old. Laine was dominant in junior but he doesn't exactly fit that mold. But I think a lot of people would agree with me in saying that if anyone has shown indications of being a goal scorer like Ovi, it's him. We only have subjective views about each player's percieved potential.

 

[Plural]

I'd say Laine seems to have potential to be the best goal scorer of his generation. True generational players have been viewed as slam dunks since they were like twelve years old. Laine was dominant in junior but he doesn't exactly fit that mold. But I think a lot of people would agree with me in saying that if anyone has shown indications of being a goal scorer like Ovi, it's him. We only have subjective views about each player's percieved potential.

How about Stammer? I remember a lot of people saying that he would be better goal-scorer than Ovechkin. I think Stamkos had even higher expectations goal-scoring wise than Laine.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

MY OPINION

I don't think he will be as big of a deal as most are making him out to be. He's a big kid who doesn't use his body and his skating I don't think quite matches up. Does he have room to improve in both categories? Absolutely. But if I've learned anything from the past, he will settle in as a solid perimeter big guy. I see a more shooting Blake Wheeler as his ceiling. Which is not a knock. But I think all this talk of being the greatest goal scorer in the NHL (50+ goal expectations) is quite foolish. The kid simply just isn't that good.

 

[ijuka]

How about Stammer? I remember a lot of people saying that he would be better goal-scorer than Ovechkin. I think Stamkos had even higher expectations goal-scoring wise than Laine.

I don't think that that's quite true.

However, Stamkos was well on his way to becoming superior to Ovechkin as a goal-scorer before his career-altering injury. The start to his 2013-2014 season was ridiculously strong, as well. I do think that Stamkos's shot is / was better than Ovechkin's one for one, Ovechkin does have the advantage in being able to generate more shot volume, though.

However, even Stamkos didn't demonstrate as dominant performance against international competition for nearly as long of a period of time as Laine has and Laine has an enormous size advantage against Stamkos as well.


In my opinion, it's important to keep in mind what kind of a stick Laine has as both Stamkos as well as Ovechkin use mid kick while Laine's is low. Low kick is generally not a one timer-beast's stick of choice. Has there ever been anyone with close to the one timer Laine has using a low kick stick?

He's a big kid who doesn't use his body

Have you never watched Laine play?

 

[Raymoondo]

https://translate.google.com/

Try this.

Sorry I'm a bit slow in the uptake. Is this something to do with the word beast being translated to Finnish? If it comes off as negative, I apologize. Beast has always been used as a compliment when describing a player in my case.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

How about Stammer? I remember a lot of people saying that he would be better goal-scorer than Ovechkin. I think Stamkos had even higher expectations goal-scoring wise than Laine.

That was wishful thinking, just like now.

 

[Passchendaele]

LOL Do your homework there mate. Ovechkin made the russian world cup squad when he was 18 and played all 6 games for Team Russia. Also, Laine won't be on the WC first line, where did you pull that information from, your a$#? And no, 18 year old Ovechkin wouldn't be neither.

Getting back to topic, I think Laine nets 25+ goals his first season.

WC = World Championship.

Regardless, I'd expect a generational goal scorer to have more goals than Joel Armia.

 

[ijuka]

http://stats.swehockey.se/Players/Statistics/ScoringLeaders/4802

Did Joel Armia do this?

 

[strat1]

Well it's true that he's not very strong physically and he could use his body more but he's only 18 year old. 1 year in NA will do wonders for him. He will become physically stronger when he gains some muscle.

 

[Plural]

I don't think that that's quite true.

However, Stamkos was well on his way to becoming superior to Ovechkin as a goal-scorer before his career-altering injury. The start to his 2013-2014 season was ridiculously strong, as well. I do think that Stamkos's shot is / was better than Ovechkin's one for one, Ovechkin does have the advantage in being able to generate more shot volume, though.

However, even Stamkos didn't demonstrate as dominant performance against international competition for nearly as long of a period of time as Laine has and Laine has an enormous size advantage against Stamkos as well.


In my opinion, it's important to keep in mind what kind of a stick Laine has as both Stamkos as well as Ovechkin use mid kick while Laine's is low. Low kick is generally not a one timer-beast's stick of choice. Has there ever been anyone with close to the one timer Laine has using a low kick stick?

It was at the time when Stammer was drafted. It didn't turn out that way. Partly due to Stamkos suffering the injury, MSL leaving and Ovechkin bouncing back.

I think you are putting tad too much weight on Laine's international success. Which is nothing to scoff at. It's just that it's a rather small sample size still. I expect Laine to be one of the premier goal-scorers of this generation. But I'm not sure that his international resume is a good indication of his future NHL career. It gives reassuring points for us. But it doesn't really mean he's a lock to reach Stammer, let alone Ovechkin in that department.

Good point about the stick though. I don't know if Laine will keep the same stick in NHL. But his choice is bit uncharacteristic for a sniper. (Not that Laine is only a sniper)

Edit: And I don't think Stamkos was ever on his way to becoming superior to Ovechkin. He was closing in on him. But not superior.

 

[Plural]

That was wishful thinking, just like now.

To be fair, Stamkos was closing in on Ovechkin in that department. Then the injury and MSL happened. So, I'm not sure if he could have ever reached Ovechkin. But he did demonstrate a high level of goal-scoring.

To be clear, I don't expect Laine to ever reach the similar heights as Ovechkin. I would bet a large sum of money on Laine falling short on becoming the greatest Finnish goals-scorer ever in the NHL. But he's the first one who shows a potential to beat Kurri and even Selanne.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

To be fair, Stamkos was closing in on Ovechkin in that department. Then the injury and MSL happened. So, I'm not sure if he could have ever reached Ovechkin. But he did demonstrate a high level of goal-scoring.

To be clear, I don't expect Laine to ever reach the similar heights as Ovechkin. I would bet a large sum of money on Laine falling short on becoming the greatest Finnish goals-scorer ever in the NHL. But he's the first one who shows a potential to beat Kurri and even Selanne.

I don't disagree that Stamkos was getting near Ovechkin, but this was happening when Ovechkin was starting his slump. What Ovechkin did before those years, and what he has done since, have ensured that the likelihood of anyone catching him is slim.

The guy is, I think without question, one of the top 5 goal scorers ever. He has a very good case for number one. That's not something Stamkos is, and it's not likely Laine gets there either

 

[kelsier]

Is Laine really generational? That means Laine is essentially McDavid in overall talent and projected impact. Those are some pretty hefty expectations you're placing on the young man.

Does it really matter what I think? If you have your mind set on something, a random nobody isn't about to change that. I let his results speak for themselves and the future decide his faith. But yes, in my opinion he has the tools to become that. We will just have to wait and see. I'm not losing sleep if he falls a bit short.

 

[psycho_dad*]

Laine is a top prospect but all of this correlation to his international career as a harbinger for immediate NHL success is off base IMO.

I don't get why people keep repeating this like they were arguing with someone when there is no disagreement.

How many times does it needs to be said within one post here, that nothing about Laines pre-draft season means anything when next season starts, he still has to actually make the career we are predicting for him? I have not seen anyone claim that Laine will for sure have a better career in the NHL than for example Ovechkin. But I see a lot of you arguing against that non existing claim anyway. It's a straw man.

Their pre-draft seasons did not guarantee anything when it comes to NHL success, but when you are making predictions, you use the available data just like every scout and everyone else. And you make predictions based on that data compared to comparable data of other well known commodities and what sort of paths their careers took.

Everyone has a chance to become the best hockey player in the world, but you can't argue that an 18 year old who never made it into the junior team, playing once a week in a beer league is for sure going to have a Gretzky like career. It's still possible, but the indications for it, the probability is next to 0 at that point.

The same goes for the best prospects in the world, guys who break records everywhere they go. Even someone who had the best pre-draft year out of Europe ever. It's not an automatic ticket to stardom. But the probability of the prediction has gone significantly up, it's more likely that this person will have a fantastic career and could reach the top of the hockey world, rather than the guy playing beer league once a week.

Laine's pre-draft season doesn't give us any answers about his future. It offers us comparable data to others, so we can PREDICT things. Predictions can go right or wrong. There is a fair reason to expect that Laine WILL have a great NHL career (and this is what scouts and GM's do too, they don't see the future, they predict it by using available data).

He IS ahead of Ovechkins development at 18, there is no guarantee it will still be so at 19 or 20. He might never play one game in the NHL, things can happen. But judging by where he is at 18 is the data we have, and that data suggests he is ahead of Ovechkin so it is more reasonable to see him staying ahead of Ovechkin, than to suggest the beer league guy will catch up to Ovechkin at 19. It's possible neither one, Laine or the hypothetical beer leaguer will never reach the level of Ovechkin at 20 for example, but the probability of Laine reaching it is according to available data, the best probability we have seen.

If we look at their pre-draft season comparable games (EHT-WJC-WHC), you can easily derive from that data that it is more likely that Laine scores 50 in the 20 year old season than Ovechkin. Because Laine has been ahead of Ovechkins development curve at least to this point. And this is where our data on Laine is paused, we will have to wait for him to play again to get more of it. We know what Ovechkin did in his 20 year old season, we don't know how Laine will do. With Ovechkin, it materialized. There is very little reason to expect it not to materialize with Laine as well, but there are no guarantees and like everyone says "we will have to wait and see".

Just stop pretending like there is no good reasons to expect Laine to reach Ovechkins level. He has been ahead of the curve so far, so his odds are not too bad for the future either. Actually, Laine was far better than Ovechkin in WHC now and I mean comparing an 18 year old to the current Ovechkin. That's a small sample size and doesn't mean anything, but if these guys would be so otherworldly apart as some of you make it sound, why can't a fully grown prime years Ovechkin be a better player for 6-10 games on international stage than a guy who just turned 18 and played his first WHC? Why did Ovy score 1 goal and Laine 7? Why was Ovy more of a problem for his team, when Laine won tournament MVP?

None of this is NHL because we have 0 games of data for Patrik Laine in the NHL. We can't compare NHL his data to Ovechkins because one has it and one doesn't. We can compare them in NHL later but for now the comparable data we have is IIHF tournaments that they both played, WJC, WHC and EHT. Where they played against and for comparable teams (best national teams in Europe)

Ovechkin had 10 goals and 5 assists in 20 games.

Laine had 14 goals and 11 assists in 19 games.

Also note that in the actual higher quality tournaments (excluding EHT) Laine was even more impressive compared to Ovechkin.


It's absolutely normal in any sports to compare available data and make predictions based on that. If a swimmer or a runner is beating the world record lap by lap early on in the race, people are going to get excited and predicting a really good finishing time, maybe even a new world record if the swimmer/runner can keep the pace up. It is unknown at that point whether or not they will actually break the world record, but there is REASON to believe that they might. Laine is beating Ovy (and everyone else with comparable data) in the early laps. So expecting great things is NOT unreasonable, it's warranted. Not guaranteed.

 

[Plural]

I don't disagree that Stamkos was getting near Ovechkin, but this was happening when Ovechkin was starting his slump. What Ovechkin did before those years, and what he has done since, have ensured that the likelihood of anyone catching him is slim.

The guy is, I think without question, one of the top 5 goal scorers ever. He has a very good case for number one. That's not something Stamkos is, and it's not likely Laine gets there either

Oh I agree. To full. Even if Ovechkin had stayed in his slump after the olympics, Stamkos would have had his work cut out for him. Now that Ovechkin bounced back (as a goal-scorer) he's far out of reach for anyone.

Now, there will be a guy who will surpass him at some point. Is it Laine? Who knows. All I know it will happen at some point. But the odds of becoming a greater scorer than Ovechkin are slim. As you said, he's arguably the greatest goal-scorer this game has seen. He's not my #1 pick (depending on day, It's Hull or Lemieux for me) but he's firmly in my top-5 and closing on on the two guys mentioned. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him as the unanimous #1 goal-scorer ever after his career is done.

I think Laine has a huge work cut out for him to even reach the heights of our national hero, Selanne. Who led the NHL in goals 3 times. Only 10 players in the history of the game have done that.

What Ovechkin is doing is something we have seen only 2 guys done before and one of them was fueled by Bobby Orr.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Oh I agree. To full. Even if Ovechkin had stayed in his slump after the olympics, Stamkos would have had his work cut out for him. Now that Ovechkin bounced back (as a goal-scorer) he's far out of reach for anyone.

Now, there will be a guy who will surpass him at some point. Is it Laine? Who knows. All I know it will happen at some point. But the odds of becoming a greater scorer than Ovechkin are slim. As you said, he's arguably the greatest goal-scorer this game has seen. He's not my #1 pick (depending on day, It's Hull or Lemieux for me) but he's firmly in my top-5 and closing on on the two guys mentioned. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him as the unanimous #1 goal-scorer ever after his career is done.

I think Laine has a huge work cut out for him to even reach the heights of our national hero, Selanne. Who led the NHL in goals 3 times. Only 10 players in the history of the game have done that.

What Ovechkin is doing is something we have seen only 2 guys done before and one of them was fueled by Bobby Orr.

Well see, here's the thing about your post... I agree with all of it. As I usually do.

We sort of ran away with this thread though, or are in danger of doing so.

Laine is certainly a tremendous talent. One of the better #2 picks in recent memory. But I think it is unfair to him to compare him to guys like Ovechkin, even just as a straight comparison between draft years. Ovechkin's status when he was 18 wasn't about on ice accomplishments. People predicted a star because of the talent that anyone with eyes could see how good he was going to be.

Laine will be his own player. Comparisons to past greats aren't necessary. He will likely be a star in this league. I hope he is. But let's let him get there before anointing him.

 

[Plural]

Well see, here's the thing about your post... I agree with all of it. As I usually do.

We sort of ran away with this thread though, or are in danger of doing so.

Laine is certainly a tremendous talent. One of the better #2 picks in recent memory. But I think it is unfair to him to compare him to guys like Ovechkin, even just as a straight comparison between draft years. Ovechkin's status when he was 18 wasn't about on ice accomplishments. People predicted a star because of the talent that anyone with eyes could see how good he was going to be.

Laine will be his own player. Comparisons to past greats aren't necessary. He will likely be a star in this league. I hope he is. But let's let him get there before anointing him.

Spot on. No need to create a artificial comparison. Laine is a tremendous young player. I'm sure he's going to leave his mark in the NHL. There has been a lot of greats in this game and there will continue to be lot of greats.

I'm just happy to see a guy like Laine entering the NHL and excited to watch how his career unfolds. The potential is there. Let's hope for the best and let's not expect for the worst.

 

[vaiski]

I'd say it's most likely he tops out like a bigger Tarasenko in the NHL, a perennial 35-40 goal-scorer. That in itself is great, but I wouldn't close the door on him becoming a real dominant force.

 

[Plural]

I'd say it's most likely he tops out like a bigger Tarasenko in the NHL, a perennial 35-40 goal-scorer. That in itself is great, but I wouldn't close the door on him becoming a real dominant force.

That's the fun part for me. I think he's going to be a elite goal-scoring winger no matter what. But he has that "special" thing. I'm not trying to overrate Laine, but this season he did have that vibe on him. That something you see from special players. Now, I don't know if he'll ever tap that potential. But I don't even have a clue on what his ceiling is.

For me, Laine can become anything from perennial 30 goal guy, to a yearly Hart contender. I really don't know. And it's really exciting to wait and see.

 

[psycho_dad*]

But I think it is unfair to him to compare him to guys like Ovechkin, even just as a straight comparison between draft years.

Why? Because Ovechkin takes a serious beating?

Why is it unfair and to whom?

 

[vaiski]

That's the fun part for me. I think he's going to be a elite goal-scoring winger no matter what. But he has that "special" thing. I'm not trying to overrate Laine, but this season he did have that vibe on him. That something you see from special players. Now, I don't know if he'll ever tap that potential. But I don't even have a clue on what his ceiling is.

For me, Laine can become anything from perennial 30 goal guy, to a yearly Hart contender. I really don't know. And it's really exciting to wait and see.

Agreed. I really hope that Justin Williams or Patrick Kane-esque clutchness he displayed this year wasn't just a fluke. If he can carry that over to the NHL, we're in for a good time.

 

[illone84]

WC = World Championship.

Regardless, I'd expect a generational goal scorer to have more goals than Joel Armia.

WC = World Cup

WHC = World Hockey Championship.

To avoid confusion!

 

[gwh]

WC = World Cup

WHC = World Hockey Championship.

To avoid confusion!

WC = World championships

MC = Money cup.

Just to avoid the real confusion.

Also, Laine is a grade-A prospect but not generational. Generational talents are the like of McDavid-Crosby-Ovie-Jagr-Lemiux. 99 is still on the next level up.