LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

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It's not BS. Matthews doesn't play a defense-first style, regardless of how "good" his defending is. His defending could be the best in the world but if he doesn't play a defense-first style, he doesn't play a defense-first style. It's as simple as that.



As for Laine scoring 50 goals:

#1 His line was not good in FEL. Heck, take the playoffs. Laine had 10+5=15. His linemates for most of the playoffs had 1+3=4 and 0+4=4 points. You see the issue here? After he got promoted to the first line for the last 3 games, he could generate far more scoring chances. He played especially well with Kristian Kuusela

#2 Laine is u-18. He's one season behind in comparison to a certain American center prospect. At this age, the scoring can increase drastically in one season, we've seen improvements in the range of 50% in scoring.

#3 If you look at how Laine scores goals, many of them are off low threat shots. He's a sniper that's extremely rare in NHL. He can shoot from any position, with any type of a shot and he can do it swiftly and he can do it while at full speed. All of these are rare traits.

#4 Laine did excellently internationally. In the WHCs, he played the wing where he's pretty uncomfortable on, but still scored 12 points and outproduced the rest of his line that consisted of high quality NHL players. He also was unbelievably good against Canada until he got injured by Perry and can generate scoring chances consistently even against NHL players.


Saying that Laine will score 50 goals in NHL doesn't mean that he needs to do it next season. The last one to score even 30 at that age was Skinner. I do expect Laine to outperform him.
 
people who point to the positional bias are once again out to lunch to put it nicely. Teams pick the best player at the time, regardless of position and nationality. There have been numerous drafts in recent memory where. 1.) a winger has been rated first by scouting organizations. 2.) A winger has been chosen first by NHL teams and 3.) Europeans have been chosen over north americans.

2001--- Kovy (L) over Spezza
2002--- Nash (L). First center was 8th overall.
2004--- Ovy (L) over malkin
2007--- Kane (R) over Turris
2010--- Hall (L) over Seguin
2012--- Yak over Gally (3rd).\

heck in 2000 a G was picked first and a C wasn't picked til 10th. Gaborik, heatley, lupul, torres, hartnell and 2 goalies were picked before a C

A W was chosen first 6 of last 16 drafts.
A D was chosen first 2 of last 16 drafts
A G was chosen first 1 of last 16 drafts.
A C was chosen first 7 of last 16 drafts.

As of 2015 Wingers had been chosen more often than centres no 1 overall this decade.

But yep, of course the consensus best prospect according to 22 of 26 nhl scouts and all but like 2 of scouting services was actually the second best player. You just pick the best North American Center first and then the real draft starts....... If matthews was born 2 days earlier I guess Keller and Jost would have been battling it out for Number 1 overall.
 
people who point to the positional bias are once again out to lunch to put it nicely. Teams pick the best player at the time, regardless of position and nationality. There have been numerous drafts in recent memory where. 1.) a winger has been rated first by scouting organizations. 2.) A winger has been chosen first by NHL teams and 3.) Europeans have been chosen over north americans.

2001--- Kovy (L) over Spezza
2002--- Nash (L). First center was 8th overall.
2004--- Ovy (L) over malkin
2007--- Kane (R) over Turris
2010--- Hall (L) over Seguin
2012--- Yak over Gally (3rd).

A W was chosen first 6 of last 16 drafts.
A D was chosen first 2 of last 16 drafts
A G was chosen first 1 of last 16 drafts.
A C was chosen first 7 of last 16 drafts.

As of 2015 Wingers had been chosen more often than centres no 1 overall this decade.

But yep, of course the consensus best prospect according to 22 of 26 nhl scouts and all but like 2 of scouting services was actually the second best player. You just pick the best North American Center first and then the real draft starts....... If matthews was born 2 days earlier I guess Keller and Jost would have been battling it out for Number 1 overall.

Let's take post-lockout.

2004 Ovi late birthday

2007 Kane late birthday

2010 Hall late birthday

2012 Yakupov late birthday



For 1 + 2 pairings of late birthday C vs early birthday W, how did the results look?

You see, "C" is not the only factor causing bias here.
 
Let's take post-lockout.

2004 Ovi late birthday

2007 Kane late birthday

2010 Hall late birthday

2012 Yakupov late birthday

ok. So in 8 drafts, 4 wingers were picked first Thats 50 percent. Two of them were europeans. Or now you think that there is a very specific bias against european wingers with early birthdays?

You do realize that there is research indicating that early birthdays are more advantageous to athletic development right? more development at same age----- more likely to be picked for better teams----- more practice/training......

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2008/04/the_boys_of_late_summer.html
 
Let's take post-lockout.

2004 Ovi late birthday

2007 Kane late birthday

2010 Hall late birthday

2012 Yakupov late birthday



For 1 + 2 pairings of late birthday C vs early birthday W, how did the results look?
And only one other late-birthday center has gone 1st overall in that time frame. Plus, Ovi wasn't post lockout if you want to limit criteria, that has as much relevancy as the Nash draft. The birthdays just fell where they did, and truly have shown not to be a factor when evaluating the top pick in the draft, the divide in value is only shown as the draft progresses.
 
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That is one damm weak argument.
Who the .... is saying he will score 50 next year?

I also like how it's okay to say Matthews will be a +ppg C with Selke defense but you're insane if you suggest Laine could be the best scorer in his prime.

Well being as good as Ovi sort of implies that he is as good a goal scorer does it not? Matthews is considered to be on par with guys like Eichel, Tavares and better than guys like Stamkos, MacKinnon etc. its not crazy for a player of his caliber to get near ppg and play at a high level defensively. It is however crazy to actually believe that Laine will score 50. Do I think he is a terrific player? **** yeah. I think he will be a consistent 35-40 goal guy but expecting 50 goals out of him is just stupid. How many players were close or at PPG? And how many scored 50? Its more likely that Matthews is PPG than Laine scores 50.
 
Well being as good as Ovi sort of implies that he is as good a goal scorer does it not? Matthews is considered to be on par with guys like Eichel, Tavares and better than guys like Stamkos, MacKinnon etc. its not crazy for a player of his caliber to get near ppg and play at a high level defensively. It is however crazy to actually believe that Laine will score 50. Do I think he is a terrific player? **** yeah. I think he will be a consistent 35-40 goal guy but expecting 50 goals out of him is just stupid. How many players were close or at PPG? And how many scored 50? Its more likely that Matthews is PPG than Laine scores 50.

0 players had +ppg with Selke defense, those expectations put him a tier above Eichel/Mackinnon/Tavares/Stamkos, he's no McDavid even though some claim he is.

It's great that you are calling posters here stupid and crazy for saying he could hit 50 goals.
I'd be happy to see him hit 40+, if he does that then I'll raise my hopes, but you can't ....ng say he will not hit 50 goals in his prime quaranteed.

It's nice how we have some posters hear just beating Laine down, it's so wonderfull to see.

(You also fail at reading most of the comments, which is funny after what you wrote on last page.)
 
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And only one late-birthday center has gone 1st overall. Plus, Ovi wasn't post lockout if you want to limit criteria, that has as much relevancy as the Nash draft. The birthdays just fell where they did, and truly have shown not to be a factor when evaluating the top pick in the draft, the divide in value is only shown as the draft progresses.
Yes, my bad. Ovi is pre-lockout.


The birthdays seem to be a factor. If we look at Keller vs Matthews, Matthews is slightly better during the u-18 season but Keller actually was better during their u-17 season. Yeah, Matthews is taller and heavier, but is that enough for Keller to be picked so much later? If Matthews was a year younger and they were on the same draft year, would you really pick Keller so much later even though they have had very comparable stats?

Then take Nolan Patrick. He is 4 days off this draft. Assume he was here, he had 1.42 PPG in WHL. Dubois probably would go before him, right? So would Patrick be going only 5th or even later this season but is the slam dunk #1 overall for next season?

You can't pretend that this makes no difference.
 
0 players had +ppg with Selke defense, those expectations put him a tier above Eichel/Mackinnon/Tavares/Stamkos.

It's great that you are calling posters here stupid and crazy for saying he could hit 50 goals.
I'd be happy to see him hit 40, if he does that then I'd raise my hopes, but you can't ....ng say he will not hit 50 goals in his prime quaranteed.

It's great how we have some posters hear just beating Laine down, it's so wonderfull to see.

How is saying 40 goals and a terrific player beating him down? Im sorry I think your prized player isnt as good as some wish he was. Matthews doesnt have to be selke caliber. Npbut he can definitely be a ppg player that isnelite defensively. I didnt mean to say that so sorry I did. But I definitely think that he can be better than Mackinnon and Stamkos.
 
Yes, my bad. Ovi is pre-lockout.


The birthdays seem to be a factor. If we look at Keller vs Matthews, Matthews is slightly better during the u-18 season but Keller actually was better during their u-17 season. Yeah, Matthews is taller and heavier, but is that enough for Keller to be picked so much later? If Matthews was a year younger and they were on the same draft year, would you really pick Keller so much later even though they have had very comparable stats?

Then take Nolan Patrick. He is 4 days off this draft. Assume he was here, he had 1.42 PPG in WHL. Dubois probably would go before him, right? So would Patrick be going only 5th or even later this season but is the slam dunk #1 overall for next season?

You can't pretend that this makes no difference.

Patrick would have gone 2nd if he was eligible for 16' draft. He wouldnt be behind Dubois. Keller and Matthews offense may be close both the rest of their game is what seperates Matthews far away from him. The whole reason Matthews went 1st is his all around game. Stats dont show that. You cant say the same for Laine who is a player that can be judged purely off of stats because he is mainly a goal scorer.
 
How is saying 40 goals and a terrific player beating him down? Im sorry I think your prized player isnt as good as some wish he was. Matthews doesnt have to be selke caliber. Npbut he can definitely be a ppg player that isnelite defensively. I didnt mean to say that so sorry I did. But I definitely think that he can be better than Mackinnon and Stamkos.

I mean posters who only have negative comments on this thread, bring nothing else on the thread.
How some twist comments to allow them to make those posts.

I don't like overhyping, it kills the quality in threads, but I dont also go call other posters stupid for saying one of the best/best goal scoring prospect since Ovy could hit 50 in his prime.
Your argument for that was pathetic.
 
Yes, my bad. Ovi is pre-lockout.


The birthdays seem to be a factor. If we look at Keller vs Matthews, Matthews is slightly better during the u-18 season but Keller actually was better during their u-17 season. Yeah, Matthews is taller and heavier, but is that enough for Keller to be picked so much later? If Matthews was a year younger and they were on the same draft year, would you really pick Keller so much later even though they have had very comparable stats?

Then take Nolan Patrick. He is 4 days off this draft. Assume he was here, he had 1.42 PPG in WHL. Dubois probably would go before him, right? So would Patrick be going only 5th or even later this season but is the slam dunk #1 overall for next season?

You can't pretend that this makes no difference.

A cross sport phenomenon is the finding that earlier birthday athletes (relative to draft cutoffs) have tons of advantages throughout development. The late birthdays are at a
Disadvantage up until their draft year. Then they get the extra year.

You also are conveniently ignoring the fact that one played on a mini rink in pheonix until he turned 15. Then broke his leg. Finnish fans are praising the development system
So that would mean laine had more development.

You cant say playing house league in arizona and in finland are the same
 
Yes, my bad. Ovi is pre-lockout.


The birthdays seem to be a factor. If we look at Keller vs Matthews, Matthews is slightly better during the u-18 season but Keller actually was better during their u-17 season. Yeah, Matthews is taller and heavier, but is that enough for Keller to be picked so much later? If Matthews was a year younger and they were on the same draft year, would you really pick Keller so much later even though they have had very comparable stats?

Then take Nolan Patrick. He is 4 days off this draft. Assume he was here, he had 1.42 PPG in WHL. Dubois probably would go before him, right? So would Patrick be going only 5th or even later this season but is the slam dunk #1 overall for next season?

You can't pretend that this makes no difference.
Patrick would of gone ahead of Dubois, and Matthews numbers were lesser than Keller because as pointed out multiple times, he broke his femur two games into the season. The amount of times I see Laine's ACL injury brought up for his sub-par 16 year old season, it should also be acknowledged Matthews was coming off a very serious injury, which usually would end someones season.

And its also been shown, the drafting discrepancy between late and early borns in expected career value is basically non-existent when applied to the top picks in the draft. It is only as the draft progresses the discrepancy starts to emerge.
 
Let's take post-lockout.

2004 Ovi late birthday

2007 Kane late birthday

2010 Hall late birthday

2012 Yakupov late birthday



For 1 + 2 pairings of late birthday C vs early birthday W, how did the results look?

You see, "C" is not the only factor causing bias here.

I think what's causing people in hockey to rate Matthews ahead of Laine is that he had a much more impressive draft year in league play. Both players were excellent internationally, but during their respective seasons Matthews separated himself.
 
This is what I mean. Matthews doesnt have worse defnse than Barkov and is much better offensively. Laine will never score 50 maybe 40 but not 50. Ovi is the only guy that is capable of scoring 50 nowadays. Stamkos is a far better goal scorer than Laine and cant reach 50 anymore. How does Laine? Just the typical put down one player and pump up the other.

Yes he does.
 
The Laine hype is getting out of hand :laugh: Well to be fair it did a long time ago. Not too surprisingly some Finns are pumping Laine like he is the second coming of Lemieux or something like that. We get it Finland has not had too many elite prospects ever so its natural to get wooed by one but still c'mon. There were even a bunch of fans that stated that Laine is more valuable than every single asset a team has from future draft picks and prospects to roster players. Hard to believe that was not just opinnion of just one madman but others tought the same as well :laugh:
 
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This is what I mean. Matthews doesnt have worse defnse than Barkov and is much better offensively. Laine will never score 50 maybe 40 but not 50. Ovi is the only guy that is capable of scoring 50 nowadays. Stamkos is a far better goal scorer than Laine and cant reach 50 anymore. How does Laine? Just the typical put down one player and pump up the other.

Matthews is far, far from Barkov's two-way game. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand hockey or hasn't seen Barkov play enough.

The Laine hype is definitely justified, not your usual nr.2 prospect.
 
This thread was quiet and great at least for some time.. Now they're back.

Laine will be good but not that good.

The most usual expectations for Laine seem to be between 20-90 points. Anything north of that I consider as a plus.
 
The most usual expectations for Laine seem to be between 20-90 points. Anything north of that I consider as a plus.

Is anyone really expecting 20 points for Laine? Maybe a hater. Looking at what has been said about Laine here one would think that he is a lock for the HHOF, joking ..... maybe.
 
Matthews doesnt have to be selke caliber. Npbut he can definitely be a ppg player that isnelite defensively.

Matthews doesnt have worse defnse than Barkov and is much better offensively.
So you are saying that Matthews and Barkov are at least equal defensively, and Barkov is considered elite defensively and definitely not far away from a Selke defence. But before that you said that Matthews doesn't have to be Selke caliber, something that some people would already consider Barkov to be at. So basically Matthews doesn't have to be as good as Barkov defensively but he is already as good as Barkov defensively. :laugh:
 
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