LW Lawson Crouse - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2015 Draft)

[Dipsy Doodle]

It seems some people are just intent on being snarky and obnoxious about whatever Crouse does from here on out, ignoring any posts that explain his production and instead comment on how he's actually playing.

Kingston scored a grand total of 9 goals this weekend. Crouse was in on 4 of those goals. He was the first star today, third star last night. The team went 2-0-1 with him returning (including a win over the #1 team in the CHL) after struggling mightily with him away at the WJC.

But hey, he should have gotten a point on all 9 goals in order to justify his current ranking.

You'll never be able to appease box score watchers until their contributions are in the box score. Just the way she goes.

Haven't been lucky enough to see him in juniors, but I was thoroughly impressed by what I saw in the WJCs in spite of his lack of production there too.

 

[Sundinisagod]

It seems some people are just intent on being snarky and obnoxious about whatever Crouse does from here on out, ignoring any posts that explain his production and instead comment on how he's actually playing.

Kingston scored a grand total of 9 goals this weekend. Crouse was in on 4 of those goals. He was the first star today, third star last night. The team went 2-0-1 with him returning (including a win over the #1 team in the CHL) after struggling mightily with him away at the WJC.

But hey, he should have gotten a point on all 9 goals in order to justify his current ranking.

Imagine HF reaction if the Leafs draft him? Which I could see happening if we get into the top 10 (very likely). Cue the Tyler Biggs comparisons...

 

[Wintersun]

No one is saying he isn't a great prospect. It's just that in the top 5 and even 10, there are guys with much higher offensive ceilings that aren't boom or bust prospects either.

 

[Icebreakers]

The bolded is my point. Not that I'm comparing Crouse with Getzlaf, but I'm talking about how people are ignoring a player's skillset and focusing completely on his junior numbers.

Scouts not picking Getzlaf top five because of his lack of offensive production is not a good thing. It means they didn't watch him closely to see the kind of tools he has, and instead just pick up a stat sheet and said, "Hmm, didn't score 100 points. No good".

Case in point: Ryan Johansen. 69 points and he went 4th overall. Why? Because even though other players outscored him, his skillset suggested he was worth a top five selection.

Case in point: Matt Duchene. A respectable 79 points and he went 3rd overall. Why? Because he was projected to be a better player than guys who went after him that outscored him (ie. Evander Kane and Brayden Schenn).

The above are exactly why NHL scouts don't just look at point totals and dismiss guys if they don't outscore their peers. HF armchair scouts, however, do. If HF was making the selections back then, Duchene probably would have went 10th overall after all the other guys who scored more than him, and Johansen would be a late first round pick. After all, like you said, a scout should be fired for taking someone with only 69 points in the top five.

Johansen scored 69 points in his rookie year in the WHL. Columbus needed a center badly and he was the only one available. Johansen showed much more potential then Crouse has shown. Besides, the 2010 draft going in was weak on paper. There were no Hanifin Strome Marners. Especially when you consider Lawson's peers are tripling him in scoring...

And Duchene was a world class talent in his draft year, you could see many fans wanting him over Kane and Schenn, it wasnt only the scouts. It was many fans and organizations. You go up to anyone right now and i doubt anyone would say they take Crouse over Marner and Strome besides ISS and Crouse's parents.

 

[bert]

No one is saying he isn't a great prospect. It's just that in the top 5 and even 10, there are guys with much higher offensive ceilings that aren't boom or bust prospects either.

He isn't a boom or bust he is probably the opposite. Many HF posters have a hard time grasping the concept of how a players skill set will transfer to the pro game or the concept that some guys are made to rip up Jr's and some aren't. Or the situation the player is in. NHL scouts however do take this into consideration which is why Crouse will be a top 5 pick and a fantastic NHL player. A first line player on a team that wins more likely than not because he is a player you win with.

 

[bert]

Johansen scored 69 points in his rookie year in the WHL. Columbus needed a center badly and he was the only one available. Johansen showed much more potential then Crouse has shown. Besides, the 2010 draft going in was weak on paper. There were no Hanifin Strome Marners. Especially when you consider Lawson's peers are tripling him in scoring...

And Duchene was a world class talent in his draft year, you could see many fans wanting him over Kane and Schenn, it wasnt only the scouts. It was many fans and organizations. You go up to anyone right now and i doubt anyone would say they take Crouse over Marner and Strome besides ISS and Crouse's parents.

Columbus isn't drafting for position at 4th overall they are drafting the BPA. Which was obviously Johansen look how his game transitioned to the pro's much like Crouse's will.

I know for a fact I have talked to 3 different scouts all of them have Crouse ahead of Strome. One had him ahead of Marner, one said it was a coin flip and the other one liked Marner more. So im sorry there are more people than Crouse's parents that would take him over Strome.

What do you think of the different situations that Crouse and Strome are currently in? They couldn't be any more opposite, for a stats watcher you must take this into consideration no?

 

[BakedBuffalo]

Drafting Crouse at #3 would be a fireable offence. No matter what you say, you can't justify taking a guy with "tools" over a guy who's putting up 2ppg.. it's lunacy. Crouse is not a Top 3 talent, and anyone who can think realizes that. TSN has him at 12, and you may not like Button, but he's not a newborn baby, and he's right more often than not. You can see very clearly that ISS rankings were influenced way too heavily upon WJC, and Marner at #9 completely discredits the entire rankings. A 2ppg elite offensive talent taken at 9th overall.

 

[sniper81]

Drafting Crouse at #3 would be a fireable offence. No matter what you say, you can't justify taking a guy with "tools" over a guy who's putting up 2ppg.. it's lunacy. Crouse is not a Top 3 talent, and anyone who can think realizes that. TSN has him at 12, and you may not like Button, but he's not a newborn baby, and he's right more often than not. You can see very clearly that ISS rankings were influenced way too heavily upon WJC, and Marner at #9 completely discredits the entire rankings. A 2ppg elite offensive talent taken at 9th overall.

If Button is the scout out there that you trust more than guys who work for NHL organizations than I don't know what to say.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

If Button is the scout out there that you trust more than guys who work for NHL organizations than I don't know what to say.

No one in their right mind is picking Crouse at 3. That's all I'm saying. Comparing Marner and Crouse (very different players, to be sure) it's not even close. You don't draft guys like Crouse that high. It's just not advisable. Greater likelihood of making the NHL doesn't mean **** if the difference in talent is a canyon.

 

[sniper81]

No one in their right mind is picking Crouse at 3. That's all I'm saying. Comparing Marner and Crouse (very different players, to be sure) it's not even close. You don't draft guys like Crouse that high. It's just not advisable. Greater likelihood of making the NHL doesn't mean **** if the difference in talent is a canyon.

I take Marner as well but you clearly don't have a good grasp at his potential upside, so I'll leave it at that.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

I take Marner as well but you clearly don't have a good grasp at his potential upside, so I'll leave it at that.

Fair enough.

 

[bert]

No one in their right mind is picking Crouse at 3. That's all I'm saying. Comparing Marner and Crouse (very different players, to be sure) it's not even close. You don't draft guys like Crouse that high. It's just not advisable. Greater likelihood of making the NHL doesn't mean **** if the difference in talent is a canyon.

Its not a canyon though... have you actually watched these players? A guy that is 6'4 who can skate like the wind and is already 215 pounds and has shown hockey sense with hands translates so well to the pro game.

Players aren't picked because of the type of player they are in Jr its how they project to be at pro in 5 years. Why is this so hard for people to figure out? Have you not noticed that power forward types take time to develop? Much like big defensemen.

Kingston simply does not score goals, put Crouse on London or Erie and surely his production goes up. I am not saying he has the offensive upside of Marner but he sure does a lot of other things really well. When NHL teams draft players they pick the guy that gives you the best chance to win. Crouse is going to be a winner and will surely be a top 6 forward no doubt in my mind.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

Its not a canyon though... have you actually watched these players? A guy that is 6'4 who can skate like the wind and is already 215 pounds and has shown hockey sense with hands translates so well to the pro game.

Players aren't picked because of the type of player they are in Jr its how they project to be at pro in 5 years. Why is this so hard for people to figure out? Have you not noticed that power forward types take time to develop? Much like big defensemen.

Kingston simply does not score goals, put Crouse on London or Erie and surely his production goes up. I am not saying he has the offensive upside of Marner but he sure does a lot of other things really well. When NHL teams draft players they pick the guy that gives you the best chance to win. Crouse is going to be a winner and will surely be a top 6 forward no doubt in my mind.

.74 pt/g vs 2.05 pt/g. You can argue junior stats don't matter, but how many players putting up Marner's numbers bust? Not many. How many big forwards with questionable offensive upside bust? a lot more. I think Crouse is a great player, but at #3 is not even a consideration.

 

[sniper81]

.74 pt/g vs 2.05 pt/g. You can argue junior stats don't matter, but how many players putting up Marner's numbers bust? Not many. How many big forwards with questionable offensive upside bust? a lot more. I think Crouse is a great player, but at #3 is not even a consideration.

How the Knights play and their overall talent level vs how Kingston plays and their overall talent level are major factors in this.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

How the Knights play and their overall talent level vs how Kingston plays and their overall talent level are major factors in this.

Top 3 talents should be able to produce regardless, that's why they're elite players. Really, that point just reinforces why Crouse shouldn't be top 3.

 

[sniper81]

Top 3 talents should be able to produce regardless, that's why they're elite players. Really, that point just reinforces why Crouse shouldn't be top 3.

Okay, your right.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Johansen scored 69 points in his rookie year in the WHL. Columbus needed a center badly and he was the only one available. Johansen showed much more potential then Crouse has shown. Besides, the 2010 draft going in was weak on paper. There were no Hanifin Strome Marners. Especially when you consider Lawson's peers are tripling him in scoring...

And Duchene was a world class talent in his draft year, you could see many fans wanting him over Kane and Schenn, it wasnt only the scouts. It was many fans and organizations. You go up to anyone right now and i doubt anyone would say they take Crouse over Marner and Strome besides ISS and Crouse's parents.

You missed my entire point with the post you quoted. It wasn't to compare Crouse's potential to Johansen's or Duchene's. It was to point out that all these people in this thread that constantly obsess over points, points, points! are missing the fact that NHL teams draft based on toolset, not on what a player produces in his draft year.

The guys I listed were guys who had a TOOLSET that translated to the NHL. Hence why they were taken high. Their actual draft year stats were rather modest compared to some of their peers who went lower than them in the draft.

Which is my point. This thread is full of stat watchers who've likely seen Crouse play one or two times (if even that) and are somehow making themselves out to be experts because they know how to read a stat sheet.

You want to argue Crouse shouldn't go ahead of Marner? Go for it. I actually wouldn't disagree. I've said in this thread already that I wouldn't consider him necessarily a top five pick. Top ten, sure. But it's not like I'm arguing he should be a lock after McDavid/Eichel.

My issues with people posting in this thread are:

1-Their entire analysis of a player is based on his junior stats. Not on how he's played, or what kind of toolset he has. But solely, exclusively, and entirely on his goals and assists this year.

2-The comments about Crouse's upside being a future 3rd/4th liner. That's utterly ridiculous. Could he actually become one? Sure, it does happen. Just like Marner or Strome could outright bust. I wouldn't bet on it, but it *could* happen. But right now, there is nobody in their right mind who actually knows a single iota about hockey that would suggest Crouse's ceiling is a 3rd/4th liner. Only the stat watchers and people who have never seen him play.

 

[Go_Krusty]

You missed my entire point with the post you quoted. It wasn't to compare Crouse's potential to Johansen's or Duchene's. It was to point out that all these people in this thread that constantly obsess over points, points, points! are missing the fact that NHL teams draft based on toolset, not on what a player produces in his draft year.

The guys I listed were guys who had a TOOLSET that translated to the NHL. Hence why they were taken high. Their actual draft year stats were rather modest compared to some of their peers who went lower than them in the draft.

Which is my point. This thread is full of stat watchers who've likely seen Crouse play one or two times (if even that) and are somehow making themselves out to be experts because they know how to read a stat sheet.

You want to argue Crouse shouldn't go ahead of Marner? Go for it. I actually wouldn't disagree. I've said in this thread already that I wouldn't consider him necessarily a top five pick. Top ten, sure. But it's not like I'm arguing he should be a lock after McDavid/Eichel.

My issues with people posting in this thread are:

1-Their entire analysis of a player is based on his junior stats. Not on how he's played, or what kind of toolset he has. But solely, exclusively, and entirely on his goals and assists this year.

2-The comments about Crouse's upside being a future 3rd/4th liner. That's utterly ridiculous. Could he actually become one? Sure, it does happen. Just like Marner or Strome could outright bust. I wouldn't bet on it, but it *could* happen. But right now, there is nobody in their right mind who actually knows a single iota about hockey that would suggest Crouse's ceiling is a 3rd/4th liner. Only the stat watchers and people who have never seen him play.

When I'm watched Crouse at the WJC he reminded me a lot of Marion Hossa. Do you see any truth to that comparison?

 

[lawrence]

I see hfboards.com is out in full force again thinking they know more then ISS which consists of a panel of 11 scouts? That list was compiled by oppinons of 11 people? yea? You think is ISS is one person?

keep it guys. Crouse is the same player who TSN thinks will end up in the top 5, and this was before the ISS rankings. He's a solid player.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

When I'm watched Crouse at the WJC he reminded me a lot of Marion Hossa. Do you see any truth to that comparison?

If you mixed Hossa with Selanne and Hull, with a hint of Shanahan, you might get close. But he's no Frederick Gauthier, let's just put it that way.

 

[bert]

.74 pt/g vs 2.05 pt/g. You can argue junior stats don't matter, but how many players putting up Marner's numbers bust? Not many. How many big forwards with questionable offensive upside bust? a lot more. I think Crouse is a great player, but at #3 is not even a consideration.

Plenty actually have you heard of Corey Locke, Simon Gamache, Kyle Wellwood etc etc etc. Now I think Marner is an excellent prospect and will be a better player than the guys that I listed but your argument is flawed.

In Milan Lucic's draft year he had 9 goals and 19 points.

In Kyle Wellwood draft year he had 35 goals and 118 points.

Who would you rather have picked at the end of the day? Extreme examples I know.

But Jerome Iginla was only a ppg in his draft year now he is what top 20 all time goal scorers. Power forwards take longer.

Todd Bertuzzi 58 points in 60 games.

Corey Perry 78 points 67 games.

I like the Hossa comparison great motor on Crouse too.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

Plenty actually have you heard of Corey Locke, Simon Gamache, Kyle Wellwood etc etc etc. Now I think Marner is an excellent prospect and will be a better player than the guys that I listed but your argument is flawed.

In Milan Lucic's draft year he had 9 goals and 19 points.

In Kyle Wellwood draft year he had 35 goals and 118 points.

Who would you rather have picked at the end of the day? Extreme examples I know.

But Jerome Iginla was only a ppg in his draft year now he is what top 20 all time goal scorers. Power forwards take longer.

Todd Bertuzzi 58 points in 60 games.

Corey Perry 78 points 67 games.

I like the Hossa comparison great motor on Crouse too.

Well If he turns out to be Hossa-esque then I'll be happy, big fan of Hossa. We'll see I guess. Should be an exciting draft regardless.

 

[KingTux]

If you mixed Hossa with Selanne and Hull, with a hint of Shanahan, you might get close. But he's no Frederick Gauthier, let's just put it that way.

You mean Gauthier is not a taller Sidney Crosby ?

 

[Icebreakers]

Plenty actually have you heard of Corey Locke, Simon Gamache, Kyle Wellwood etc etc etc. Now I think Marner is an excellent prospect and will be a better player than the guys that I listed but your argument is flawed.

In Milan Lucic's draft year he had 9 goals and 19 points.

In Kyle Wellwood draft year he had 35 goals and 118 points.

Who would you rather have picked at the end of the day? Extreme examples I know.

But Jerome Iginla was only a ppg in his draft year now he is what top 20 all time goal scorers. Power forwards take longer.

Todd Bertuzzi 58 points in 60 games.

Corey Perry 78 points 67 games.

I like the Hossa comparison great motor on Crouse too.

You are going to lose this argument everytime. You can only come up with a handful of players who turned out well , I can name a hundred players that busted in the same scenario, and besides none of those players mentioned were taken high. They were given ample time to develop.

 

[Wintersun]

He isn't a boom or bust he is probably the opposite. Many HF posters have a hard time grasping the concept of how a players skill set will transfer to the pro game or the concept that some guys are made to rip up Jr's and some aren't. Or the situation the player is in. NHL scouts however do take this into consideration which is why Crouse will be a top 5 pick and a fantastic NHL player. A first line player on a team that wins more likely than not because he is a player you win with.

You read wrong. I was saying that some players that have a lot more skill are not boom or bust, which means they are as likely as Crouse to hit their ceiling. And that's why taking Crouse at 3 would be a mistake in my book.