You say that but pretty much everyone has Crouse in their top 10 list (several ranking sites have him Top 5). I guess Crouse being much younger than other draftees help his case, but I too am questioning his offensive upside.
LW Lawson Crouse - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2015 Draft)
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You say that but pretty much everyone has Crouse in their top 10 list (several ranking sites have him Top 5). I guess Crouse being much younger than other draftees help his case, but I too am questioning his offensive upside.
I know. I have no problem taking him after 10 though. That is the perfect risk to take imo. Hes got the size you just hope he improves the offensive upside in the future.
Too risky for me to take a guy who isn't showing both skill and points when guys who do have both are doing so.
I think draft day he won't be a top 10 pick though.
Terrence
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Sidney the Kidney
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I must be going blind. Either that or hockeyDB has incorrect stats, but it lists Biggs' draft year stats as 20 GP, 7 G, 4 A, 11 P. Where's the 19 goals and 31 points coming from?
Tyler Biggs on hockeyDB
lawrence
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Incorrect Bo horvat 2013, you might want to kindly ask the guy who posted this to kindly review his sources again.
Not sure why everyone is losing sleep over this. This kid is going to be Bo horvat winger version. Whoever drafts him got themselves a risk free player.
Yeah, hockeydb only shows some of their games - can't remember which they exclude in terms of NCAA or USHL.
Check out eliteprospects - it gives a lot more complete stats for the team, including international and tourney stats.
Use EliteProspects when looking at players. A lot more informative and visual appealing.
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=38619
Nothing wrong with him being ranked in the top 5. He has top 6 upside, his mature, responsible game will keep at a 3rd liner atleast (his floor). Virtanen went 6th overall and he was just a PPG player.
He tied for most goals at the Ivan Hlinka, scoring goals isn't an issue for him. He plays on a weak Kingston team, these concerns about his game are coming from people who don't know anything.
He tied for most goals at the Ivan Hlinka, scoring goals isn't an issue for him. He plays on a weak Kingston team, these concerns about his game are coming from people who don't know anything.
The top 5 last year is not the top 5 this year. Legitimately you could argue that based on what they have done this year as prospects, and without assuming Ekblad goes ham this year because no one expected this, Hanifin, Strome and Marner are all arguably playing at a level that could have gotten them selected 1st overall last year. I don't think anyone would have taken Crouse ahead of Bennet, Draisatl, Reinhart or Ekblad.
Big, fast players with great shots do well in the NHL. I think that's just common knowledge at this point. Add in Crouse's decent overall skill level and he's a guy who should have very little in the way of him putting up top 6 forward numbers at the NHL level.
If Kingston was a better team he'd probably have 5-10 more assists. If he's got a playmaker like Bennett passing to him he'd probably have 5-10 more goals. Suddenly we're talking about a big speedy 6'4, 210lbs power forward with 30 goals and over a PPG, to go along with a very strong two way game. I doubt that's a player many would let slip through their fingers if they were drafting high this year.
If Kingston was a better team he'd probably have 5-10 more assists. If he's got a playmaker like Bennett passing to him he'd probably have 5-10 more goals. Suddenly we're talking about a big speedy 6'4, 210lbs power forward with 30 goals and over a PPG, to go along with a very strong two way game. I doubt that's a player many would let slip through their fingers if they were drafting high this year.
So you think the gap between Crouse to Marner, Strome and Hanifin is pretty much #5 to #1 in the 2014 NHL Draft? I don't think so.
You're getting too caught up into points, Crouse is just as effective as Bennett, Draisaitl, Reinhart. He's the biggest, most physical, better skater than all but Bennett, best shot and his hockey sense is good but obviously not Reinhart level. Ekblad is a defenceman and I think it would have to depend on position needs for Marner, Strome, Crouse and Ekblad/Hanifin.
Let's just think about what Crouse does better than Marner and Strome, let's forget about the stats. Crouse shoots better, he's the most physical and intense player of them all, he skates well for his size Marner is a faster skater though, he has good vision and his hockey sense is also good. Marner and Strome have vision, playmaking ability and hockey sense over Crouse. They can't play the cycle game like Crouse or play his style of game, they might put up more points but Crouse can be just as effective.
Bigger players translate better, that's why he's a better pick than Konecny, Barzal, Merkley, etc.
Ya I'm not worried about those guys. And I don't disagree with you, Crouse has some skills that he is superior to Strome or Marner. But let's be serious, if your picking 1st overall and your options are Strome, Marner or Crouse, I don't know how you could seriously pick Crouse. His ceiling just isn't there. You don't pick guys 1st overall because they cycle well and play good fundamentals, but don't have a ceiling to become an elite player. Top end Crouse is not as valuable as top end Marner or Strome.
I can't take you seriously if you would entertain the idea of taking Crouse over Reinhart or Ekblad.
Points are not the be all end all, but as for projections, guys who put up 2 pts a game in the CHL as a draft prospect are both unbelievably rare and borderline bust proof. Marner and Strome have both produced at a level that puts them in the rarest company for offensive producers in the last decade. Let's just agree that based on history your taking the much bigger risk that you won't get an elite player in the top 5 by picking Crouse than a team who picks Marner or Strome.
Sidney the Kidney
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I did the calculations a few pages back (I believe), but Crouse has 21 goals out of Kingston's 139, which works out to 15.1% of Kingston's goals. If he played on a team like London or Erie, assuming he'd produce a similar percentage of the team's goals, he'd have 38 goals if he was on Erie and 35 goals on London.
Points-wise, he's got a point on 23% of Kingston's goals. For an Erie team that's scored 250 goals, that translates to him having 58 points, and for a London team that's scored 230 goals, that translates to him having 53 points.
So unless people think he'd produce at a lower clip on a better offensive club than he does on a poor offensive club, you're looking at between 35-38 goals and 53-58 points in 41 games this year. Are those still bad offensive numbers?
And I think that's where people are really missing the point about just how little help he's getting offensively in Kingston. Erie has scored over 100 goals more than Kingston, and London has scored over 90 more goals than Kingston. Can anyone deny that that's a factor in his point totals being what they are, compared to what they would be with more offensive help?
Rise from the Ashes
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Crouse is the second coming of Jordan Staal. Very useful player, not useful enough to take in the top 5.
That said, I do think he has excellent NHL potential and will be a corner-stone piece to whichever team selects him. The team that does select him should do so with a mind that is is unlikely he will ever be a 70 point player. He impressed me tremendously watching him in person, here in Montreal during the WJC. Could see him being a David Backes type.
That said, I do think he has excellent NHL potential and will be a corner-stone piece to whichever team selects him. The team that does select him should do so with a mind that is is unlikely he will ever be a 70 point player. He impressed me tremendously watching him in person, here in Montreal during the WJC. Could see him being a David Backes type.
Ceiling? If Ladd is a 1st line player then Crouse can be one too. If Lucic is a 1st line player then so can Crouse.
I could pick out 4-5 players with the same type of skill-set as Marner, give me a couple with the same skill-set as Crouse.
You use the stat game but never mention how weak Kingston is how great London and Erie are. Crouse is basically getting points by himself, he doesn't have 1st rounders along with him or other top-notch junior players. Even in the NHL, points don't mean which player is better than which, when Tavares and Stamkos had weak teams and put it up low numbers no one said oh the guy who put up more points is better. You have to be aware of the team and situation, most people I know would take Lucic over Nicklas Backstrom or Tyler Johnson. Johnson isn't a better hockey player than Getzlaf. A guy putting up 1.40 PPG compared to a guy 1.35 PPG doesn't make him better. 1.40 PPG might be playing with Crosby while 1.35 plays with John Scott. Yeah Marner has skill, I can totally see him going #4 but I can see Crouse going #4 aswell for right reasons.
Just for the record using stats to make an argument doesn't mean you "don't know anything" or are just "stat watching". Anyways carry on...
Ya if those are ceiling players and Giroux is a ceiling player for Marner, I'm pretty sure I'll take a chance on Marner. How great London is? They are middle of the pack. Is it possible that part of the reason Erie and London have a lot of goals is because Strome and Marner are better at scoring themselves and are responsible for some of that scoring?
And no Lucic is not the top player on a 1st line, which is something I would hope that Marner and Strome could become.
Absolutely no one with a brain would rather have Lucic than Backstrom. No one. I have no idea why you are comparing Getzlaf. He is a center, not a power winger.
Similar skill set to Crouse? You could take anyone from Tom Wilson to Taylor Pyatt or Zach Kassian. You probably would prefer a comparable like Ladd. This is the problem with people that want to take Crouse top 5. It's a bigger risk a guy like him doesn't become a top six player, compared to an elite point producer, particularly elite point producing centers.
How about this because we keep circling and I seem to have prove everything while you spitball. Find me a comparable player to Marner, who had the sick production Marner has had this year, who hasn't become a top six, more likely first line player in the NHL in the last ten years. I'll wait.
Giroux is a 2nd round pick which proves my point you can pick up small skilled players later in the draft when questions are raised. London has Dvorak, Domi and players Kingston wish to have, Crouse would be over PPG if he had time with those players on EV + PP.
Lucic played 1st/2nd line LW in 2011, 2012 when Boston has 2 1st lines basically.
Lucic is more valuable than Backstrom, you can easily trade or sign for a skilled centre than a power forward. Getzlaf is a power forward who could probably move to wing I bet.
I use Ladd because Ladd has 75 points in 71 games and went 4tg overall, I think Crouse can get better numbers.
Vesa Awesaka
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He was a mid to late first. 22nd overall. He was not drafted in the second round if thats what you're saying.
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AD1066
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It goes two ways. Crouse gets tons of ice time and first unit PP in Kingston. And still struggles to put up points. On a better team he'd probably be a 2nd/3rd liner with 2nd unit PP (if PP at all), so trying to extrapolate the way you have never works.
Part of the reason Kingston is so poor offensively is because their top lines are well below average. Now that's not all Crouse's fault entirely, but he is part of that problem. You could argue other top 10 forwards in this draft would elevate their team and line mates more than Crouse does. Certainly his lack of passing will mean if he is a 1st liner, it will be playing a very specific role.
It would be interesting to see what he produces with Bennett for a full season, to be sure. But even if his production was a bit higher, he is still in the same mold as Paul Bittner to me. Both are guys I'd love to draft, but not with a top 10 pick. Perhaps he'll end up a Blake Wheeler, or perhaps he'll end up a Colin Greening.
Saying this with barely watching Crouse play, but if any of you think scouts scout off of points, you're completely crazy. To most scouts points are 100% irrelevant. Crouse is a powerforward with offensive upside, that's what scouts see when they watch him, they aren't on any websites looking at his stats they're going over video of him
