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LW Lawson Crouse - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2015 Draft)

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Sidney the Kidney said:
You listed a bunch of guys who aren't even top six forwards in order to prove that top six powerforwards aren't that rare? :help:

That's kind of what makes them rare. Because only a select few players in the league can play an effective powerforward game while at the same time being good enough offensively to be played in a top six role.
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He's listing power forwards, not top 6 players...

The post implies he is of the mind Crouse isn't a guaranteed top 6 player. If you think differently you shouldn't project it onto what he's saying and then somehow hold that against his point.
 
There's just something about him that screams "bust" to me personally. It's not even like I think he's a bad player, far from that as a matter of fact. I just can't believe he's ranked in the top 5 is all.
 
Sidney the Kidney said:
The comparison was due to the fact in Landeskog's draft year, he was the one among the top picks who was seen as having the most limited offensive upside. A great 200 ft. player who might never put up huge offensive totals, in a draft that featured 3 skilled guys who put up over 100 points.
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I get why you used the comparison (style wise), I just don't think it's a good one stats wise.

Sidney the Kidney said:
Nino Niederreiter. In his draft year, he put up very similar goal totals to what Crouse is on pace for. His overall points weren't exactly huge by top five standards either (60 points that year). And he had more offensive support around him than Crouse currently does.
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Excluded him because it was his rookie WHL year and although it's still very early in his career right now I wouldn't be happy having picked him in the top 5 (top 10 depending maybe).
 
Sidney the Kidney said:
You listed a bunch of guys who aren't even top six forwards in order to prove that top six powerforwards aren't that rare? :help:

That's kind of what makes them rare. Because only a select few players in the league can play an effective powerforward game while at the same time being good enough offensively to be played in a top six role.
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As Rob Paxon explained above, those are just power forwards. My point is that all power forwards that show top 6 potential in junior don't always live up to it.

Guys like Kassian, Beach, Downie, Fehr were drafted to become top 6 players and didn't completely pan out.


Top 6 scoring power forwards may be rare, but are they really more rare than eilte scoring forwards like Kane, Giroux, Tavares? Because they certainly aren't as valuable. Pretty sure Boston would trade Lucic for Kane in a heartbeat. And like those before him, there is no guarantee that Crouse pans out.
 
Can't see Crousebeing drafted top 5 his offensive numbers just dont match up to Mcdavid, Eichel, Strome or Maner and you don't pass on a D the caliber of Hanifin either.

That said if the Leafs could use Nashville's pick to move up and grab him assuming he falls a little I would be quite happy to have one of Mcdavid, Eichel, Strome Maner Hanifin AND Crouse any 2 of those 6 and it will be a good day on draft day
 
I hate to say this, but I get a Biggs vibe from Crouse. Now, I like Biggs. He was the guy I wanted on the Leafs in his draft, I own a military tribute Biggs Marlies jersey.

For those who haven't been jaded by what has happened since that draft, you may remember that Biggs was seen as a sure bet to play in the NHL in some capacity. Huge, strong, mean, good fighter, good skater, good shot. This was the scouting report. At one point he was thought of as a top five pick, but didn't show much in the way of scoring.

Now, Crouse is not Biggs. There are always different variables for different players, each develops in his own way. Two players can have identical scouting reports, but one becomes Taylor Hall and the other is Nail Yakupov. I just get that vibe from Crouse that reminds me far too much of Biggs and I'd rather the Leafs avoided him. I hope he turns out to be a great player because my favourite players are the big guys that can score and play a power game, but I would prefer the Leafs go after someone like Marner or Strome.

It isn't a bias against Crouse by the way. Coming into the year, Zacha was a prospect I was most excited for, but his lack of production had made me wary (I am quite aware of the situation for Zacha and how rocky his year has been, preventing him from gaining traction)
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
As Rob Paxon explained above, those are just power forwards. My point is that all power forwards that show top 6 potential in junior don't always live up to it.

Guys like Kassian, Beach, Downie, Fehr were drafted to become top 6 players and didn't completely pan out.


Top 6 scoring power forwards may be rare, but are they really more rare than eilte scoring forwards like Kane, Giroux, Tavares? Because they certainly aren't as valuable. Pretty sure Boston would trade Lucic for Kane in a heartbeat. And like those before him, there is no guarantee that Crouse pans out.
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The difference between guys like Kassian, Beach, Downey etc and Crouse comes down to strictly Hockey sense, he is a lot smarter when it comes to decision making and on Ice awareness, every forward you listed struggled with that in junior.
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
that's what I thought
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Is it? Because the only player not on those rankings that may have been above him at that point was Larsson, which would place Biggs at 6. So if you want to argue semantics, fine. But mid season, Biggs was definitely seen as a potential lottery pick.
 
When I read posts about how crappy Crouse's #s are, I always revert to Ryan Getzlaf's first two years in the WHL:

Year 1: 18pts in 63GP -Rookie
Year 2: 68pts in 70GP - Draft Year, 19th Overall
Year 3: 75pts in 49GP - Post Draft

Never above a PPG until post-draft, and in hindsight, would anyone would have guessed he would become one of the NHLs biggest superstars? Now I get it, for every Getzlaf there's a Fehr.

I've seen Crouse play since his OHL MM Draft Year & always thought out of that draft class, he would have the best pro-style game (Yes, at the age of 15 ahead of fellow draftees Konency & Strome). For what its worth, I had the same projections when Catenacci, Murphy, & Jenner were coming into the OHL & NHL. It could be said Jenner is one of CLBs most valueable forwards as they are a completely different team without him dressed.

My point is, some guys just aren't going to be point producers at a Strome/Marner type of clip, but just because they don't light up the scoreboard, doesn't mean they hold equal value. For the guys who do criticize Crouse, I wonder if you guys have seen him play more than 3x. If I never saw Crouse play & just went off of his game-to-game boxscores, my hands would be up in the air with these rankings as well. Being someone who's seen him play for 3 seasons & getting to watch fellow draftees throughout as well, a top 6 projection is definately fair. Personally, I take him 4th Overall, with Strome at #5 & Marner at #6. Of the three, he has the lowest bust potential & upside to be a physically dominating top-6 forward.

Just my skinny
 
I don't know how good a comparison Getzlaf is. He was a top 40 scorer in his draft year, while Crouse may not finish in the top 100 this season. What I'm saying is different leagues, different scoring levels. The fact that Crouse isn't close to a ppg is a concern for me.

I will concede that much of that is a lack of assists. Unless Gilmour straps on some skates, Crouse won't get many assists because there aren't any guys that can put the puck in the net on Kingston.
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
that's what I thought
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Well, he was in that top 5 conversation at the beginning of the year. ISS had him #6 overall, and even though he was #5 on the NA, Larsson was really the only guy anyone thought would be top 10 from Europe at that point. So two publications had him at 6th.
 
I personally think Crouse would be ranked 10-20, right with Bittner, if it weren't for the Hlinka tourney. If you take that showing out of the equation, I think his pre-season ranking would have been a lot more in line with what we are seeing.

I wish I saw him play there, so I'd have a better feel for whether he truly elevated his game amongst the best of his peers, or he had a ton of garbage goals playing with some elite guys. But either way , it does show the potential for a scoring line winger, albeit, a one dimensional offensive one. Anyone see him play at Hlinka?

And that is my main concern re top upside, is that Crouse is seriously one dimensional offensively. I mean, he simply rarely passes the puck in the three games I've seen him play live, and then again at the WJC. And it's not just the eye test - the main reason he produces so poorly offensvely is he rarely gets assists (he's on pace for 25+ goals which isn't bad given his line mates). But he's a black hole, where the puck rarely gets back to a line mate in the offensive zone other than on the cycle or on a rebound. And that makes it hard to envision him on a top scoring line, and likely more destined as a 3rd liner when all is said and done.

If Bennett does return, if they really generate some offence together, that could satisfy a lot of scouts concerns, I'm sure.
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
As Rob Paxon explained above, those are just power forwards. My point is that all power forwards that show top 6 potential in junior don't always live up to it.

Guys like Kassian, Beach, Downie, Fehr were drafted to become top 6 players and didn't completely pan out.


Top 6 scoring power forwards may be rare, but are they really more rare than eilte scoring forwards like Kane, Giroux, Tavares? Because they certainly aren't as valuable. Pretty sure Boston would trade Lucic for Kane in a heartbeat. And like those before him, there is no guarantee that Crouse pans out.
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I know, but the discussion was about how rare top six powerforwards are, not how rare any big guy who could pass for a powerforward in general are. That's why Crouse is seen as highly as he is. Because what he *projects to* is a rare commodity.

Of course not all powerforwards actually become top six players. But the same applies to any position. For every Kane and Giroux there are Pierre-Marc Bouchards and Nikita Filatovs as well. But the discussion is about the rarity of those who actually pan out.

As per your bolded, go ahead and list the number of "skilled forwards" there are in the NHL. Now list the top six powerforwards. I'd say they certainly are much more rare (the argument of their value is another story -- I'm simply talking about rarity at this moment).
 
I don't think many are arguing that Crouse's archetype isn't rare.

They're just arguing that that rarity shouldn't give him a bump over guys like Marner and Strome.
 
dnicks17 said:
I don't think many are arguing that Crouse's archetype isn't rare.

They're just arguing that that rarity shouldn't give him a bump over guys like Marner and Strome.
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LOL, a non stop pissing match over something they have absolutely no control over.
 
flamebird said:
When I read posts about how crappy Crouse's #s are, I always revert to Ryan Getzlaf's first two years in the WHL:

Year 1: 18pts in 63GP -Rookie
Year 2: 68pts in 70GP - Draft Year, 19th Overall
Year 3: 75pts in 49GP - Post Draft

Never above a PPG until post-draft, and in hindsight, would anyone would have guessed he would become one of the NHLs biggest superstars? Now I get it, for every Getzlaf there's a Fehr.

I've seen Crouse play since his OHL MM Draft Year & always thought out of that draft class, he would have the best pro-style game (Yes, at the age of 15 ahead of fellow draftees Konency & Strome). For what its worth, I had the same projections when Catenacci, Murphy, & Jenner were coming into the OHL & NHL. It could be said Jenner is one of CLBs most valueable forwards as they are a completely different team without him dressed.

My point is, some guys just aren't going to be point producers at a Strome/Marner type of clip, but just because they don't light up the scoreboard, doesn't mean they hold equal value. For the guys who do criticize Crouse, I wonder if you guys have seen him play more than 3x. If I never saw Crouse play & just went off of his game-to-game boxscores, my hands would be up in the air with these rankings as well. Being someone who's seen him play for 3 seasons & getting to watch fellow draftees throughout as well, a top 6 projection is definately fair. Personally, I take him 4th Overall, with Strome at #5 & Marner at #6. Of the three, he has the lowest bust potential & upside to be a physically dominating top-6 forward.

Just my skinny
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Not for nothing, but as I remember it, beside playing center, Getzlaf's knocks were that he had a bad attitude and wasn't consistent. I also don't think he was near the skater at the same age as Crouse, yet he still put up the same type of points.

I don't care about points as a general issue, particularly once guys get into the NHL, but for a guy who has an nhl physique and tremendous athleticism, and a crazy work ethic, and consistent game to game drive, something is missing when he has such low assist and total point numbers at the junior level. And I only say that in regard to a guy who people want to take ahead of Marner and Strome. Outside of the top 5 he is one of several options that becomes a style and team need issue question.
 
Dr.Sens(e) said:
Well, he was in that top 5 conversation at the beginning of the year. ISS had him #6 overall, and even though he was #5 on the NA, Larsson was really the only guy anyone thought would be top 10 from Europe at that point. So two publications had him at 6th.
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I see that so the question becomes what the hell happened for him to drop so far?
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
I see that so the question becomes what the hell happened for him to drop so far?
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Well, he wasn't one of the top 5 forwards on his own team (The US development team), so it was hard to make him a top 5 player overall, despite the fact he was so big, fast and mean.

Biggs was a sure fire pro, but it was one of those picks where there was a lot lower chance he would ever be an elite forward. I think Crouse is somewhat of the same ilk compared to guy in the top 15, although he has demonstrated a bit more offensively than Biggs (but only a bit). It's not a totally absurd comparison, by any stretch.
 
Dr.Sens(e) said:
Well, he wasn't one of the top 5 forwards on his own team (The US development team), so it was hard to make him a top 5 player overall, despite the fact he was so big, fast and mean.

Biggs was a sure fire pro, but it was one of those picks where there was a lot lower chance he would ever be an elite forward. I think Crouse is somewhat of the same ilk compared to guy in the top 15, although he has demonstrated a bit more offensively than Biggs (but only a bit). It's not a totally absurd comparison, by any stretch.
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What, exactly, are you comparing when you say that Crouse is "only a bit" better offensively than Tyler Biggs? Biggs' played for the US Development team his draft year, so it's hard to compare to Crouse (and his numbers were very low), and his only season in the OHL came at age 19. I hope you're not comparing Biggs' production as a 19 year to Crouse's at 17 years old.

For comparison's sake, Crouse (at 17) already has 21 goals in 41 games. Biggs (at 19) had a whopping 26 goals in 60 games, despite having much more support around him (Boone Jenner and Scott Laughton were both on that squad). I'll bet my life savings that Crouse will produce more than 26 goals and 53 points in the OHL by the time he's 19 years old.

(Note: if you're comparing the "way they play" rather than actual statistics, then I'd still disagree. Crouse, as a 17 year old, has been more noticeable and dangerous on the ice more often than Biggs, as a 19 year old, did)
 
Sidney the Kidney said:
What, exactly, are you comparing when you say that Crouse is "only a bit" better offensively than Tyler Biggs? Biggs' played for the US Development team his draft year, so it's hard to compare to Crouse (and his numbers were very low), and his only season in the OHL came at age 19. I hope you're not comparing Biggs' production as a 19 year to Crouse's at 17 years old.
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When Biggs was 17, he played for US development program. They play USHL teams and NCAA teams. It is a very tough schedule against elite talent, as not many draft eligible produce at elite clips against either league (CHL has more pure talent, but is much higher scoring than USHL).

In that year, Biggs had 19 goals and 31 points in 55 game. Fellow 1st round pick JT Miller had 12 goals and 35 points in 35 games for the same team for comparison. One could argue either play might have produced at a higher clip in the CHL (although circumstances can change that either way, obviously).

With 21 goals and 32 points in 40 games, Crouse is producing at a similar, albeit slightly better clip. But it's a higher scoring league, so I stand by my point of it being a "bit better". But it is better, to be sure. And Crouse making the WJC team is another significant consideration in his favour.

And we're just comparing draft years. Whether Crouse or any other prospect significantly increases their production next year is total guess work. Right now, all we know is he Crouse that is a .75 ppg player at the CHL level with a lot of other good stuff beyond the numbers going for him.
 
Posted this on the Leaf section an argument:

The number of players drafted in the top 10 under PPG (CHL):

2014 - 0
2013 - 1 (0.91 PPG)
2012 - 1 (Galchenyuk had 2 games played)
2011 - 0
2010 - 2 (0.98 PPG/0.93 PPG)
2009 - 0
2008 - 0
2007 - 0

It is a stupid risk to take. Crouse should not be taken top 10.

*Crouse is currently at 0.78 PPG
 
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