LW Lawson Crouse - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2015 Draft)

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I think with a guy like Crouse, you have to focus on his goal scoring. That's going to be his strength at the next level. He's never going to win the Art Ross by racking up 60+ assists. Which is why I think focusing on overall point totals does him a discredit.

In any case, a guy who put up similar totals (with a heavy leaning on goals and low assist totals) and was drafted high is Nino Niederreiter. In his draft year, he had 36 goals and only 24 assists. Crouse's goal totals will be similar, with his assist totals likely falling a bit lower than that.

Another prospect who is high on everyone's list at the moment because of how he broke out is Anthony Mantha. He had a late birthdate so he wasn't drafted after his 17 year old season, but at the same age Crouse is right now (17 going on 18), Mantha put up 22 goals and 51 points in 63 games. He blossomed the following year with his 50 goal, 89 point season. But if people wrote him off after "just 22 goals and 51 points in 63 games", they'd have ignored the toolset he had and focused on just his point totals.

A guy I've compared Crouse's NHL upside to is Andrew Ladd. Now while Ladd put up over a point per game in his draft season, strangely enough he put up *worse* numbers than Crouse is on pace for in his post-draft year. Ladd followed up a decent draft year of 75 points with only 19 goals and 45 points the next year. So people who focused entirely on stats might see that and think he was going to bust because of how his stats "regressed". But that's why you have to evaluate the player's skillset, not his point total. Ladd didn't "lose ability". The points -- for whatever reason -- just weren't there.

I know you specifically mentioned the .8 PPG mark, but players producing under a point per game in their draft year have gone on to become top end NHLers. Two obvious examples being Ryan Getzlaf (68 points in 70 games) and Ryan Johansen (69 points in 71 games), as well as the guys I listed above.

I'm not saying Crouse won't turn into a good NHLer, I just think it's very risky to spend a top five pick on a player like him.

Sometimes scouts need some humility and recognize that their skill/talent evaluation can only go so far. Historically, age and team-adjusted PPG in junior is a very good predictor of NHL success. Taking someone like Crouse in the top five is going against probability.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Says Crouse's #1 white knight in this thread.

Was that necessary?

Don't know how you got Ladd chucked in there, but I've seen more than enough of all these guys to be comfortable in my assessment(s) for now. I pay much more attention to how they play, contribute, and get around the ice than their actual numbers, and I don't typically need a half season's worth of video to pick out flaws and strengths in players. Things change, players surprise/disappoint in the end, but Crouse is entirely unimpressive to me at this time. Seems like a complimentary player that you'd surround a "star" with, or maybe fill out a bottom 6 with; not a star than you'd find complimentary players for. And I think there are enough potential stars to be had before committing to a pick like Crouse anywhere near the top end of the first round. Most draft ranking services seem to disagree, so we'll see.

Re: the bolded. I don't have an issue with people discussing different view points on his strengths and weaknesses. I disagree completely on your viewpoints (and it seems the scouts also disagree with you, but whatever). My issue in this thread has always been with stat watchers who don't even attempt to break down his game and discuss it. They simply open up the OHL stat page and say, "why doesn't he have more points?" over and over again.

Having said that, I question your assessment of him if you're that convinced he's so limited offensively. You can clearly see the tools there to be a top line physical forward at the next level. Is he the next Eric Lindros? Of course not. It's why I've mentioned a guy like Andrew Ladd as a comparable (not necessarily perfect style-wise, but in terms of overall contribution on offense, defense, and physical play).

The guy who brought up Kilger is bang on - not as a comprehensive skill set comparison mind you, but in terms of what kind of reach it would be to take a guy like Crouse as high as 3rd or 4th, and what it is about the player(s) that sucks teams into claiming them that quickly (projecting size and skill to have a similar/greater impact at the NHL level after junior).

Kilger's one of those guys who needed more time in junior to round out his game. Kilger had all the tools to be a legitimate top line, big power center. The problem was he was kept in the NHL right after the draft, and was never given the opportunity to develop his ability. Kilger was a very raw player at the point he was drafted.

If Crouse is kept up in the NHL next season, I could easily see him following the same path. He does need refinement, especially offensively. Crouse should be a 4-year junior because his offensive game is still a work in progress. So yes, the comparison to Kilger could be apt IF Crouse is rushed to the NHL like Kilger was. The problem is the people who "dislike" Crouse seem to just name every single big player who busted as comparables, even if they didn't have the same skillset as Crouse does.

You ask that like it's the only side conversation here where you've addressed his numbers at length.

Again, context. When I say "stats aren't everything", I mean don't just keep harping on them without even bothering to put them into context or to discuss Crouse's actual attributes as a player.

Of course I'm going to mention stats if the discussion is about comparing Crouse to someone or what he has the potential to be at the next level. I simply am tired of people in this thread doing nothing but talking about stats, as if that's the only thing even relevant to discussing a player.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm not saying Crouse won't turn into a good NHLer, I just think it's very risky to spend a top five pick on a player like him.

Sometimes scouts need some humility and recognize that their skill/talent evaluation can only go so far. Historically, age and team-adjusted PPG in junior is a very good predictor of NHL success. Taking someone like Crouse in the top five is going against probability.

I don't necessarily think he'll go top 5. Other than ISS, does any other ranking have him in the top 5?

I also wouldn't argue that he should go top 5. I'd lean toward taking Marner ahead of him (plus the obvious top 3 of McDavid/Eichel/Hanifin). So that's four at this point that I'd say should go ahead of him. After that, they all have their own "flaws" that you could consider a knock against taking them, but also have valid reasons for why they should go ahead of him.

In any case, not believing he's a top 5 pick is more than reasonable. The silly posts are the ones who are already projecting him as a 3rd/4th liner at best, and the ones who think he shouldn't go anywhere but late in the 1st round. Those are the posts I think are way off the mark.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Was that necessary?

Nothing I do around here really is, I suppose, beyond how much any of us are really "necessary".

Re: the bolded. I don't have an issue with people discussing different view points on his strengths and weaknesses. I disagree completely on your viewpoints (and it seems the scouts also disagree with you, but whatever). My issue in this thread has always been with stat watchers who don't even attempt to break down his game and discuss it. They simply open up the OHL stat page and say, "why doesn't he have more points?" over and over again.

Having said that, I question your assessment of him if you're that convinced he's so limited offensively. You can clearly see the tools there to be a top line physical forward at the next level. Is he the next Eric Lindros? Of course not. It's why I've mentioned a guy like Andrew Ladd as a comparable (not necessarily perfect style-wise, but in terms of overall contribution on offense, defense, and physical play).

I don't think he's just limited offensively, but I think that will factor a tremendous amount into what kind of role(s) he might be capable of at the NHL level. I don't "clearly see the tools to be a top line physical forward" at that level. I see the tools to be that at the junior level, for sure, where deficiencies reading/reacting to the play and executing at game speed can be largely mitigated with a bit of size and speed. At the NHL level, I don't see the execution level of most of what he does getting him into any top 6, and if it wasn't for showing some good plugging at the WJC I would have been skeptical of him contributing much as a bottom 6 player at that level, too.

But, like I said many posts ago, I've warmed to the idea that his ceiling might be something like an Andrew Ladd. And he's solid enough across the board that I suppose he could be pegged somewhere around Kilger for a floor. Kilger was faster, but Crouse is probably capable of getting around "smarter", and that can balance out. Still think Ladd is the best combination of those aspects, though.

 

[sniper81]

Nothing I do around here really is, I suppose, beyond how much any of us are really "necessary".



I don't think he's just limited offensively, but I think that will factor a tremendous amount into what kind of role(s) he might be capable of at the NHL level. I don't "clearly see the tools to be a top line physical forward" at that level. I see the tools to be that at the junior level, for sure, where deficiencies reading/reacting to the play and executing at game speed can be largely mitigated with a bit of size and speed. At the NHL level, I don't see the execution level of most of what he does getting him into any top 6, and if it wasn't for showing some good plugging at the WJC I would have been skeptical of him contributing much as a bottom 6 player at that level, too.

But, like I said many posts ago, I've warmed to the idea that his ceiling might be something like an Andrew Ladd. And he's solid enough across the board that I suppose he could be pegged somewhere around Kilger for a floor. Kilger was faster, but Crouse is probably capable of getting around "smarter", and that can balance out. Still think Ladd is the best combination of those aspects, though.

You can come to this conclusion while never watching him live.. It's astonishing to me.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

You can come to this conclusion while never watching him live.. It's astonishing to me.

Yeah, but as good as I am at it, I still get surprised like everyone else.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

In any case, not believing he's a top 5 pick is more than reasonable. The silly posts are the ones who are already projecting him as a 3rd/4th liner at best, and the ones who think he shouldn't go anywhere but late in the 1st round. Those are the posts I think are way off the mark.

I hear where you are coming from, but probably half of the forwards picked between 10th and 25th overall end up being no better than 3rd liners. It is not a huge bust to land a 3rd liner in that range, even though it will be a minor disappointment to a scouting staff and organization.

The general idea is scouts "hope" the guy can turn into a solid scoring line forward - and they see signs of it - but they know worst case, you have a solid checking 3rd liner who can still be a valuable part of a winner and is a good character guy. Guys like Paille, Berglund, Hanzal, Colin Wilson, McNeil, Biggs and Guance all fit this mold when drafted, and for the most part, have not turned into true scoring line forwards (some still have time to prove they can). Even top prospects like Horvat and Lazar still probably fall into this category as well.

And that's where I think Crouse is different from a guys like Zack Kassian and Kyle Beach (two guys who have ended up differently obviously). Crouse is likely lower risk because there is little risk to his character and him having the discipline and control at the next level.

Of course, probably an overplayed thing with Crouse is he is a big nasty power forward. While he is tough, he is not mean. He will never be a major intimidator at the NHL level, and in that way, he is no Lucic. From what I have seen and heard, he is very tough and will drop the gloves if pushed, but he doesn't strike fear into the other team in that way.

 

[RedHot]

Am I the only one who thinks this guy is really overrated ?

I didn't notice him at all in the World Juniors, along with a couple OHL games I've watched.

What has he done to warrant being mentioned as a top five pick ?

 

[bert]

Nothing I do around here really is, I suppose, beyond how much any of us are really "necessary".



I don't think he's just limited offensively, but I think that will factor a tremendous amount into what kind of role(s) he might be capable of at the NHL level. I don't "clearly see the tools to be a top line physical forward" at that level. I see the tools to be that at the junior level, for sure, where deficiencies reading/reacting to the play and executing at game speed can be largely mitigated with a bit of size and speed. At the NHL level, I don't see the execution level of most of what he does getting him into any top 6, and if it wasn't for showing some good plugging at the WJC I would have been skeptical of him contributing much as a bottom 6 player at that level, too.

But, like I said many posts ago, I've warmed to the idea that his ceiling might be something like an Andrew Ladd. And he's solid enough across the board that I suppose he could be pegged somewhere around Kilger for a floor. Kilger was faster, but Crouse is probably capable of getting around "smarter", and that can balance out. Still think Ladd is the best combination of those aspects, though.

A 17 year old that shows the tools of being a powerforward at the next level are few and far between. But you probably already knew that right.... Have you watched him live at all? I have multiple times and I think you are the most off base of any poster I have seen describe him.

Scouts like him too, people that have watched him. Maybe you should do the same.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Am I the only one who thinks this guy is really overrated ?

I didn't notice him at all in the World Juniors, along with a couple OHL games I've watched.

What has he done to warrant being mentioned as a top five pick ?

I am right there with you. I am puzzled. No points in his last 3 games. 23 points in 32 games on the season. ''Intangibles'' only take you so far in the pros. In the 10 games or so I have seen him, he clearly doesn't have that physical, nasty edge we saw in guys like Nolan or Shanahan or Iginla in their primes.

He should be ranked around 15th, especially in a class like this. He could be an elite 3rd liner, but how can you justify using a top 5 pick for a 3rd liner in a draft of this quality?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I am right there with you. I am puzzled. No points in his last 3 games. 23 points in 32 games on the season. ''Intangibles'' only take you so far in the pros. In the 10 games or so I have seen him, he clearly doesn't have that physical, nasty edge we saw in guys like Nolan or Shanahan or Iginla in their primes.

He should be ranked around 15th, especially in a class like this. He could be an elite 3rd liner, but how can you justify using a top 5 pick for a 3rd liner in a draft of this quality?

So you are saying his ceiling is that of an elite 3rd liner? I haven't seen Crouse play besides the WJC and I wasn't that impressed with him in that tournament, but the scouting report on Crouse is very impressive. It sounds like if he puts it all together, he's an elite NHL power forward. Maybe he's far away from that ceiling and shouldn't be drafted in the top five because he's probably farther away from his ceiling than many of the top players in this draft, but I don't see how his ceiling is all of a sudden that of a third line winger because he's not putting up great numbers.

Have you seen Lucic's numbers in his draft year? What about Simmonds numbers in his draft year? Even JVR's stats in the NTDP in his draft year weren't that impressive and look how high he was drafted.

I actually do agree with you that he shouldn't be drafted where he is being projected to go, but I disagree about his ceiling. Especially in a draft like this, I don't think you are going to find a player in the first round who's ceiling is not that of a Top 6 forward, Top 4 defenseman or elite starting goalie.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Am I the only one who thinks this guy is really overrated ?

I didn't notice him at all in the World Juniors, along with a couple OHL games I've watched.

What has he done to warrant being mentioned as a top five pick ?

It's not about what he's done, it's about what scouts feel he will do at the NHL level.

 

[RedHot]

It's not about what he's done, it's about what scouts feel he will do at the NHL level.

Seems pretty risky when you're drafting that high in a really deep draft, no?

 

[sniper81]

Seems pretty risky when you're drafting that high in a really deep draft, no?

Risky to be predicting his future? That's a scouts job.

 

[Dodospice]

Is he a top 5 pick? No. However, he has the goods of a top 10 pick in my eyes.

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

Risky to be predicting his future? That's a scouts job.

No, a scouts job is to find players that will be NHLers with the chances/potential dependent on their draft position. You always pick the BPA based on your positional needs (unless they are goalies). Crouse is not the BPA at #3 Overall in any position.

If a scout takes a lot of risks, chances are he won't be successful.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Have you seen Lucic's numbers in his draft year? What about Simmonds numbers in his draft year? Even JVR's stats in the NTDP in his draft year weren't that impressive and look how high he was drafted.

For every Lucic, Simmonds and JVR there are probably 20 big guys with underwhelming numbers (but they were blessed with good ''tools'') who never made it big.

 

[sniper81]

No, a scouts job is to find players that will be NHLers with the chances/potential dependent on their draft position. You always pick the BPA based on your positional needs (unless they are goalies). Crouse is not the BPA at #3 Overall in any position.

If a scout takes a lot of risks, chances are he won't be successful.

I have him rated 6th overall.... Fire me

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

I have him rated 6th overall.... Fire me

That's fine. My main gripe are the "experts" putting him at #3 Overall

 

[sniper81]

That's fine. My main gripe are the "experts" putting him at #3 Overall

Those are reaction rankings, and they are working!

 

[Passchendaele]

So you are saying his ceiling is that of an elite 3rd liner? I haven't seen Crouse play besides the WJC and I wasn't that impressed with him in that tournament, but the scouting report on Crouse is very impressive. It sounds like if he puts it all together, he's an elite NHL power forward. Maybe he's far away from that ceiling and shouldn't be drafted in the top five because he's probably farther away from his ceiling than many of the top players in this draft, but I don't see how his ceiling is all of a sudden that of a third line winger because he's not putting up great numbers.

Have you seen Lucic's numbers in his draft year? What about Simmonds numbers in his draft year? Even JVR's stats in the NTDP in his draft year weren't that impressive and look how high he was drafted.

I actually do agree with you that he shouldn't be drafted where he is being projected to go, but I disagree about his ceiling. Especially in a draft like this, I don't think you are going to find a player in the first round who's ceiling is not that of a Top 6 forward, Top 4 defenseman or elite starting goalie.

Lucic and Simmonds weren't picked top-5 precisely because they were reaches.

JVR averaged 1.5 PPG in his draft year.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Seems pretty risky when you're drafting that high in a really deep draft, no?

True, I would hate to have to choose between him and say Strome or Marner...I guess a scout has to trust their eyes and instincts more than the numbers. As much as a do like Crouse, it will be a ballsy pick to make over some of the other highly skilled prospects who will be available.

 

[timlap]

True, I would hate to have to choose between him and say Strome or Marner...I guess a scout has to trust their eyes and instincts more than the numbers. As much as a do like Crouse, it will be a ballsy pick to make over some of the other highly skilled prospects who will be available.

After Connor McDavid, I think is a risky but exciting draft. In the top 10 you're almost sure to get an NHLer of some quality. But there's a good chance you'll pass on a player who turns out even better. These are the things that can make GMs and scouts look bad.

If someone rolls the dice on Crouse and he turns out average, fans will complain for years.

But if teams pass on him and he turns out to be an elite player, fans will complain for years.

Tough job!

 

[Juxtaposer]

I have him rated 6th overall.... Fire me

I wouldn't scorn someone who had him 6th. I personally have him more like 15, but as long as he's not over Hanifin, Marner, and Strome I won't complain... too badly anyway.

 

[613Leafer]

Am I the only one who thinks this guy is really overrated ?

I think he's crazy overrated. There's almost always somebody drafted top 10-15 because they have that mix of size/skill that GMs crave, have good intangibles, etc. But if they're PPG or lower in the CHL in their draft year, that's NOT a good sign of offensive upside at the NHL level.

Look at the last 10 years of drafting, top 10-15 picks who were 6'2+ who were right around PPG or less in the CHL. Jordan Staal, Kyle Beach, Peter Mueller, Benoit Pouliot, Zach Kassian, Brendon Sutter, etc. A bunch of 3rd liners, non-NHLers, and the best of the bunch might be considered a solid 2nd liner or very good 3rd liner.

Crouse looks like a project to me, and you don't take projects with top 10 picks. Too many statements about "if" he pulls it together, when there are a bunch of other people in the draft who have a high ceiling and who have already pulled it together. Granted I prioritize hockey sense/skill over size, especially at the top of the draft.