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LW Kyle Connor - Michigan, NCAA (2015, 17th, WPG)

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lomiller1 said:
Connor is a late birth date, just like Auston Matthews is this year, just like Meier and Rantanen were last year just like Taylor Hall was his year and that’s the only sense in which he’s “olderâ€. He didn’t spend a “an extra year in junior†he’s reaching university exactly when he’s supposed to. (He did bypass NTDP in favor of staying in Youngstown but it's hard to see how that is a benefit)

Barring some extenuating circumstance students entering their first year of university will be 18 when they start or very shortly after. It’s not too uncommon to see people who turn 18 just after if they began (Sept, maybe Oct) but you can also occasionally see players like Toews who finished highschool and entered university a full year or perhaps more early but these are the exception, not the rule.

Most players are not drafted out of the NCAA they are drafted, they are in their draft +1 year when they enter the NCAA like Connor, Between Toews and Eichel the only 1st round picks to spend a year in the NCAA before being eligible for the NHL draft were Jamie Oleksiak, Jordan Schroeder, Colin Wilson, Jim O'Brien so while it can be done it’s far from the norm and far from a guarantee the player will be particularly good.



What? The age difference is simply larger in the first case than the second so of course there is a bigger difference. The difference in ages between a given year/class is a known issue for which adjustments exist. There is no evidence spending more or less time in Jr league helps or hurts because it's too specific to the individual players situation. Ideally they should play in the highest league where they can play significant min with some measure of success.
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Werenski and Hannifin were both in the NCAAA last year and they are both younger then Connor.
 
WpgBuffan said:
Werenski and Hannifin were both in the NCAAA last year and they are both younger then Connor.
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Pretty rare to see a player do that though and really only happens if they are part of the USDP. Regardless, I think people using the fact that Connor didn't play in the NCAA last year as a knock on his ability are being pretty ignorant. I'd call last year successful for him based on how much he's dominating this year and I'm not sure he'd be better off had he opted to start college early. Even if you want to consider this season his "sophomore" season, it's still considerably better than any other sophomores (Gaudreau, Toews, *Boeser, *White, *Larkin). The starred players were freshman but in their draft+1 years which I guess some people here consider to be their sophomore season.
 
lomiller1 said:
Connor is a late birth date, just like Auston Matthews is this year, just like Meier and Rantanen were last year just like Taylor Hall was his year and that’s the only sense in which he’s “olderâ€. He didn’t spend a “an extra year in junior†he’s reaching university exactly when he’s supposed to. (He did bypass NTDP in favor of staying in Youngstown but it's hard to see how that is a benefit)

Barring some extenuating circumstance students entering their first year of university will be 18 when they start or very shortly after. It’s not too uncommon to see people who turn 18 just after if they began (Sept, maybe Oct) but you can also occasionally see players like Toews who finished highschool and entered university a full year or perhaps more early but these are the exception, not the rule.

Most players are not drafted out of the NCAA they are drafted, they are in their draft +1 year when they enter the NCAA like Connor, Between Toews and Eichel the only 1st round picks to spend a year in the NCAA before being eligible for the NHL draft were Jamie Oleksiak, Jordan Schroeder, Colin Wilson, Jim O'Brien so while it can be done it’s far from the norm and far from a guarantee the player will be particularly good.



What? The age difference is simply larger in the first case than the second so of course there is a bigger difference. The difference in ages between a given year/class is a known issue for which adjustments exist. There is no evidence spending more or less time in Jr league helps or hurts because it's too specific to the individual players situation. Ideally they should play in the highest league where they can play significant min with some measure of success.
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He does have an extra year of junior over all comparable early 97's, and i do hold that against guys such as Meier when comparing him to the likes of Zacha or Crouse, I don't just use it against Connor. The 3 full years of USHL gives him a leg up on the guys who only had two. I feel the advantage of entering Jr earlier off sets the 3 months developmental issues.

hockeey said:
Pretty rare to see a player do that though and really only happens if they are part of the USDP. Regardless, I think people using the fact that Connor didn't play in the NCAA last year as a knock on his ability are being pretty ignorant. I'd call last year successful for him based on how much he's dominating this year and I'm not sure he'd be better off had he opted to start college early. Even if you want to consider this season his "sophomore" season, it's still considerably better than any other sophomores (Gaudreau, Toews, *Boeser, *White, *Larkin). The starred players were freshman but in their draft+1 years which I guess some people here consider to be their sophomore season.
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No it doesn't Toews is an early born who did it coming out of Shattuck. And none of the people you starred played 3 years in the USHL, which is the main advantage Connor gained from age, and Larkin didn't turn 19 til last summer.
 
Whileee said:
Kyle Connor one of 10 finalists for the Hobey Baker.*

(* note: Connor's pretty old)
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Exactly. The burning question ought to be: How did this geriatric so-called "freshman" unfairly make that HB list? How do those extra months spent in the forges of the USHL give him a competitive advantage? Should this greybeard even BE in college? Why the hell isn't he working for a living like the other 19 year olds?

D*mn baby boomers.
 
93LEAFS said:
No it doesn't Toews is an early born who did it coming out of Shattuck. And none of the people you starred played 3 years in the USHL, which is the main advantage Connor gained from age, and Larkin didn't turn 19 til last summer.
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I said it's pretty rare and usually only seen with guys from USDP which has been the case more recently. Toews was a pretty rare exception and besides Eichel who is also rare but came from USDP, there have been very little true freshman drafted out of college.

For your other points, you could argue Larkin and White had an advantage by playing for USDP which actually plays a lot of games against top NCAA teams. What's more of an advantage: getting a lot of experience at the NCAA level the year before or getting an extra year in juniors? They probably each have different benefits but you can't say Connor has a huge advantage because of his age and opportunity to play in better leagues earlier when two of the starred players were exposed to NCAA level play earlier.

Connor's quick adjustment to the NCAA is extremely impressive just as Boeser's and White's is, there's no need to try to come up with dubious arguments to try to take away from that. Sure he's no eichel who did it at a year younger in a harder division but you can't look at Connor's ridiculously high point per game (that would be pretty impressive as a senior as you can tell with Jimmy Vesey who has been getting a lot of attention recently) and say not say that what he's doing is pretty special. Even if it doesn't translate to the NHL, it's one of the better NCAA seasons by a freshman or sophomore.
 
Thomas Vanek was the last NCAA Div 1 freshman to score 30 goals (scoring 31 in 2002/03). Kyle Connor has already scored 30 this year and has games left to play... but apparently he is old and stuff.
 
I heard Connor didn't start playing hockey until he was 12 years old, where the other players all started when they were 5 years old.... so they all had a 7 year head start.
 
WpgBuffan said:
Werenski and Hannifin were both in the NCAAA last year and they are both younger then Connor.
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Sure. Kids as young as 12 or 13 get into university on occasion too. Barring some sort of accelerated graduation from high-school, however, the soonest most people go to university is after their 18th birthday or occasional a month or two before their 18th birthday. That's the normal age for a true freshman and that's exactly the age group Connor is in.

Connor is in the oldest part of that group but due to his Dec Birthday but still in it Eichel was about as young as you would normally expect a freshman to be and Connor is pretty close to the oldest a true freshman would normally be. There are a few players who accelerate their educations and get into the NCAA at a younger age than you would normally expect for a freshman, but there are pretty rare and for the most part don't apply to the discussion at hand.

In the case of someone like Toews case it may be more appropriate to compare his sophomore year. There are also cases where it makes more sense to compare by NHL draft year, but remember this discussion was specifically triggered by comparing freshman years not NHLe in a players draft + x year. If you do compare NHLe in his draft + 1 year he's basically off the charts with almost no comparable outside a handful of players who spent their D+1 years in the NHL
 
docbenton said:
I said above average, meaning for a 1st round pick. Do you have a clip that shows otherwise? And don't show me a saucer pass...

White has the equally good speed and he makes good things happen every shift, I don't see a big dropoff in offensive ability, maybe a little. Boeser needs to improve his skating but has better hands and shot. All 3 have good hockey sense and are good prospects. I've seen them play a fair bit and that's my assessment. I tend to ignore the points at lower levels. Heck even in the NHL I don't think points are a terrific measure of offensive ability.
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On the other hand, I don't give a **** about your hands if it's not garnering me points.
 
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