LW Kyle Connor - Michigan, NCAA (2015, 17th, WPG)

[CorgisPer60]

People are just taking umbrage with comparing Connor's rookie year to Eichel's. I mean, how many people can we compare him to? How many NCAA freshmen lead the league in scoring by a comfortable margin? Not once has anyone even suggested that Eichel and Connor are close as prospects; they are putting their NCAA freshmen years side by side in context to how amazing Connor has been this year and for his viability for the Hobey Baker.

Here - let's compare Connor to Gaudreau.

Gaudreau

D: 1.2 ppg USHL
D+1: 1 ppg NCAA
D+2: 1.45 ppg
D+3: 2 ppg

Now he's an exceptional talent who is having a killer career so far. What is Connor doing?

D-1: 1.32 ppg USHL
D: 1.42 ppg USHL
D+1: 1.79 ppg NCAA

Yes, Gaudreau played for BC in Hockey East and Connor plays in B1G, so there is some queries about overall league strength. In Gaudreau's D+1 year, he was 5th in his conference for scoring. Connor is first in his. What does this say? Not much, except both are exceptional talents. Of note, Gaudreau didn't win the Hobey Baker until his Junior year, when he was 2ppg. Eichel won his in his draft year. Connor has a more than a likely chance of winning it this year.

In short, chill out about Connor being compared to Eichel. >_>

 

[Whileee]

Cool story bro.

But I wasn't comparing Connor to Duncan.

Although since Duncan has won a Hobey Baker Award and Connor hasn't, you have to admit, by your own logic, that Duncan is better, right?

I think it would be cool for Connor to be the 3rd freshman to win the Hobey Baker award, and it would be a nice acknowledgement of his performance in the NCAA this season.

But it's yielded some weird voting results, so I don't think it's a good way to assess the quality of an NHL prospect.

 

[Icebreakers]

People are just taking umbrage with comparing Connor's rookie year to Eichel's. I mean, how many people can we compare him to? How many NCAA freshmen lead the league in scoring by a comfortable margin? Not once has anyone even suggested that Eichel and Connor are close as prospects; they are putting their NCAA freshmen years side by side in context to how amazing Connor has been this year and for his viability for the Hobey Baker.

Here - let's compare Connor to Gaudreau.

Gaudreau

D: 1.2 ppg USHL
D+1: 1 ppg NCAA
D+2: 1.45 ppg
D+3: 2 ppg

Now he's an exceptional talent who is having a killer career so far. What is Connor doing?

D-1: 1.32 ppg USHL
D: 1.42 ppg USHL
D+1: 1.79 ppg NCAA

Yes, Gaudreau played for BC in Hockey East and Connor plays in B1G, so there is some queries about overall league strength. In Gaudreau's D+1 year, he was 5th in his conference for scoring. Connor is first in his. What does this say? Not much, except both are exceptional talents. Of note, Gaudreau didn't win the Hobey Baker until his Junior year, when he was 2ppg. Eichel won his in his draft year. Connor has a more than a likely chance of winning it this year.

In short, chill out about Connor being compared to Eichel. >_>

I dont know why you brought up Gaudreau lol. Not comparable in the slightest. No one knew who Gaudreau was until his draft + 2 season. He improved dramatically. He wasnt even taken as a legitimate nhl top 6 until his final NCAA season due to his size. Up until then he was a boom bust guy and Baertschi was still ahead of him on the depth chart. The only thing the two have in common is their nationality and both played in the USHL in their draft years.

 

[Whileee]

Did i ever say dismiss it? And it has nothing to do with Matthew's nice straw-man argument. I said Eichel was a year younger when he accomplished what he did. All i said is he is older than most of the top freshmen, which is true, I just picked the more notable names, for example 2015 2nd round pick AJ Greer was born 7 days after Connor and was a frosh last year. It is rare for a guy of Connor's talents to play 3 USHL years, and that is not a misrepresentation. Most talented late birthdays are either in college or another league in their draft year instead of the USHL (Eichel, Kessel, Kane, Oleksiak, Colin Wilson, Schroeder, Matthews, Tkachuk, Mitera, S. Jones, Deangelo, Hartman, Fowler, Sheahan, Gagner, Foligno), the only first round late birthdays who played in the USHL there draft year are John Moore, Connor, Pacioretty and Jordan Schmaltz, so it is uncommon, you can add Brock Nelson, Niskanen and Oshie if you are including HS kids. There have also been a bunch of early birthdays who played in college there draft year (Pokulok, Toews, Jim O'Brien, Hanifin and Werenski). That is looking at all the drafts since the 04/05 lockout. Most high end freshman play in what would be their 3rd year of jr elgiability, that is not a misleading statement.

I'm not sure that jumping to the CHL is much of a step up from the USHL, particularly when looking at scoring stats.

If you don't like comparing Connor to freshmen, there aren't many sophomores that have scored at the rate that Connor has.

I think it's reasonable to say that if Connor had switched to the CHL for his draft or draft+1 year, he would have been a very productive scorer at that level, too, especially if he played on a high-scoring line / team.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I dont know why you brought up Gaudreau lol. Not comparable in the slightest. No one knew who Gaudreau was until his draft + 2 season. He improved dramatically. He wasnt even taken as a legitimate nhl top 6 until his final NCAA season due to his size. Up until then he was a boom bust guy and Baertschi was still ahead of him on the depth chart. The only thing the two have in common is their nationality and both played in the USHL in their draft years.

Now you're going to complain about comparing Connor to Gaudreau? Jesus Christ, there is no appeasing you people. I brought him up because he had a good NCAA career and is now having a great NHL career so far. How many other contemporaries can we compare Connor to? Who else will you guys have a **** flip over comparing him to?

 

[hockeey]

Now you're going to complain about comparing Connor to Gaudreau? Jesus Christ, there is no appeasing you people. I brought him up because he had a good NCAA career and is now having a great NHL career so far. How many other contemporaries can we compare Connor to? Who else will you guys have a **** flip over comparing him to?

He's a Vancouver fan who can only validate Boeser's great year by taking down Connor's. Connor is in the same draft year as boeser though so his arguments against Connor's age don't make much sense.

You can use the Big 10 argument but Connor is leading by such a large amount that that argument isn't too valid either.

Also I think it could make sense composing his year to toews' sophomore year but take in to account the conference's as well

Edit: not all Vancouver fans are like this I know and I also am super impressed with boeser. Just pointing out there's no need to discount one for the other to be good

 

[Whileee]

He's a Vancouver fan who can only validate Boeser's great year by taking down Connor's. Connor is in the same draft year as boeser though so his arguments against Connor's age don't make much sense.

You can use the Big 10 argument but Connor is leading by such a large amount that that argument isn't too valid either.

Also I think it could make sense composing his year to toews' sophomore year but take in to account the conference's as well

Edit: not all Vancouver fans are like this I know and I also am super impressed with boeser. Just pointing out there's no need to discount one for the other to be good

Boeser's a great prospect, but he's only a couple of months older than Connor and in his freshman season in his d+1 season. While Connor was in the USHL in his d-2, d-1 and d seasons, Boeser was in high school for d-2 and d-1 and in the USHL in his draft season.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm not sure that jumping to the CHL is much of a step up from the USHL, particularly when looking at scoring stats.

If you don't like comparing Connor to freshmen, there aren't many sophomores that have scored at the rate that Connor has.

I think it's reasonable to say that if Connor had switched to the CHL for his draft or draft+1 year, he would have been a very productive scorer at that level, too, especially if he played on a high-scoring line / team.

All I've said is very few elite players have played in the NCAA at Connor's age, guys like Kessel and Eichel played and left after there frosh years, and Connor is currently older than Toews was at anypoint during his sophomore year. What he's doing is impressive regardless of class is impressive, but it should be noted very few top forward talents play in the NCAA as 19 year olds. The list of high picks is basically Schwartz, Connor, and JVR, with both those guys due to staying for an extra season (plus Boeser and White). Top end guys like Toews, Kessel, Turris, Larkin, and Eichel never played an NCAA game at 19.

The CHL is a step up from the USHL, its just a higher scoring league, it'd be like saying the KHL is on par with the NHL due to it being lower scoring.

But I love how people are "hating" if they point out Connor is older than most elite freshman or that the Big 10 is weak this year. It will be interesting to see how these guys do (Connor, Boeser and White) because last years crop looks legit (Eichel and Larkin), but there was a bit of a lull of high-end forwards going the NCAA route between 2009 and 2014. Connor looks legit, but with a bigger influx of high end talent going the NCAA route it will be interesting if it will be a common occurence for frosh to challenge for the Hobey Baker, next year atleast 3 top 15 forwards are likely to be in the NCAA (Jost, Keller and Bellows).

 

[Whileee]

All I've said is very few elite players have played in the NCAA at Connor's age, guys like Kessel and Eichel played and left after there frosh years, and Connor is currently older than Toews was at anypoint during his sophomore year. What he's doing is impressive regardless of class is impressive, but it should be noted very few top forward talents play in the NCAA as 19 year olds. The list of high picks is basically Schwartz, Connor, and JVR, with both those guys due to staying for an extra season (plus Boeser and White). Top end guys like Toews, Kessel, Turris, Larkin, and Eichel never played an NCAA game at 19.

The CHL is a step up from the USHL, its just a higher scoring league, it'd be like saying the KHL is on par with the NHL due to it being lower scoring.

But I love how people are "hating" if they point out Connor is older than most elite freshman or that the Big 10 is weak this year. It will be interesting to see how these guys do (Connor, Boeser and White) because last years crop looks legit (Eichel and Larkin), but there was a bit of a lull of high-end forwards going the NCAA route between 2009 and 2014. Connor looks legit, but with a bigger influx of high end talent going the NCAA route it will be interesting if it will be a common occurence for frosh to challenge for the Hobey Baker, next year atleast 3 top 15 forwards are likely to be in the NCAA (Jost, Keller and Bellows).

As one NHL scout was quoted as saying last season, he thought Connor could have put up 100 points in the OHL in his draft year. He noted that the USHL was not an easy league to score in, for some reason. Scoring in the NCAA is more difficult than the OHL, regardless of division. If he was putting up around 2 ppg in the OHL, there wouldn't be much argument about his age.

I think the Hobey Baker award is a bad way to measure a prospect's quality. It's just a neat achievement for a player having a very good freshman year.

 

[Whileee]

I said above average, meaning for a 1st round pick. Do you have a clip that shows otherwise? And don't show me a saucer pass...

White has the equally good speed and he makes good things happen every shift, I don't see a big dropoff in offensive ability, maybe a little. Boeser needs to improve his skating but has better hands and shot. All 3 have good hockey sense and are good prospects. I've seen them play a fair bit and that's my assessment. I tend to ignore the points at lower levels. Heck even in the NHL I don't think points are a terrific measure of offensive ability.

Have a look at this clip from his draft year. Tell what you think of his hands after viewing it.

 

[Romang67]

As one NHL scout was quoted as saying last season, he thought Connor could have put up 100 points in the OHL in his draft year. He noted that the USHL was not an easy league to score in, for some reason. Scoring in the NCAA is more difficult than the OHL, regardless of division. If he was putting up around 2 ppg in the OHL, there wouldn't be much argument about his age.

I think the Hobey Baker award is a bad way to measure a prospect's quality. It's just a neat achievement for a player having a very good freshman year.

The fact that we're talking about his winning the Hobey Baker is more telling than his actual winning would be.

Unfortunately, chances are that if he does win it, he'll turn out to have the worst career of any freshman Hobey Baker winner in history!

 

[Whileee]

The fact that we're talking about his winning the Hobey Baker is more telling than his actual winning would be.

Unfortunately, chances are that if he does win it, he'll turn out to have the worst career of any freshman Hobey Baker winner in history!

Definitely the worst freshman HB winner of all time.

Probably won't win anyway. It'll go to some 23-year old plug with good character, etc.

 

[93LEAFS]

As one NHL scout was quoted as saying last season, he thought Connor could have put up 100 points in the OHL in his draft year. He noted that the USHL was not an easy league to score in, for some reason. Scoring in the NCAA is more difficult than the OHL, regardless of division. If he was putting up around 2 ppg in the OHL, there wouldn't be much argument about his age.

I think the Hobey Baker award is a bad way to measure a prospect's quality. It's just a neat achievement for a player having a very good freshman year.

It may be tougher to score in, but its not a better league. The under 18 USNDP team walks through that league, and they would probably get beat badly by any team in Memorial Cup contention.

 

[jetman]

All I've said is very few elite players have played in the NCAA at Connor's age, guys like Kessel and Eichel played and left after there frosh years, and Connor is currently older than Toews was at anypoint during his sophomore year. What he's doing is impressive regardless of class is impressive, but it should be noted very few top forward talents play in the NCAA as 19 year olds. The list of high picks is basically Schwartz, Connor, and JVR, with both those guys due to staying for an extra season (plus Boeser and White). Top end guys like Toews, Kessel, Turris, Larkin, and Eichel never played an NCAA game at 19.

...

Is this just a product of Connor's late birthday? It is only Connors draft + 1 season. Everyone you mentioned except Eichel and Kessel played in the NCAA for their draft +1 season. I'm not sure I follow what you are trying to say here.

 

[Daximus]

I'm glad Connor didn't go to the CHL he'd be playing with Saginaw right now. They suck.

 

[93LEAFS]

Is this just a product of Connor's late birthday? It is only Connors draft + 1 season. Everyone you mentioned except Eichel and Kessel played in the NCAA for their draft +1 season. I'm not sure I follow what you are trying to say here.

Most top end late birthdays are usually in the NCAA during there draft year or go the CHL route. Its rare for a top freshman to have 3 years of USHL experience before entering college. Was just pointing out Connor was older than a lot of the top frosh he gets compared to. There are a bunch of smaller names who played in the NCAA as late birthdays in their draft year, for example AJ Greer, Demko, Jake McCabe, Di Giuseppe, Oleksiac, and Clandening. What Connor is doing is amazing regardless of class, but he's closer in age to most guys who are sophomores. And Toews spent his draft year in the NCAA, similar to Hanifin and Werenski. Also alot of the bigger name late birthdays chose different routes. Tkachuk decommited from ND but would of been a freshman this year, the same is true for Matthews (except he never committed anywhere).

EDIT: Granted to be fair to Connor, a partial reason for this is that the USNDP program makes it slightly easier to advance a year if that is your plan (see Werenski and Hanifin). I'm unsure of when Connor became a highly sought after recruit, but a lot of top prospects know around grade 9 if they will be a big name recruit, and plan school around this. It is much easier to plan accelerating your education when starting high school than trying to do later on. I just can't think of the last high end prospect who had 3 years of USHL experience before going the college route.

 

[CorgisPer60]

So, is anything that you're saying of any relevance? Connor had 3 years of USHL. Does that detract from the season he's currently having? Since people are hung up on Connor being "old" for a freshman, here's a list of all drafted frosh and sophomore NCAA players.

 

[93LEAFS]

So, is anything that you're saying of any relevance? Connor had 3 years of USHL. Does that detract from the season he's currently having? Since people are hung up on Connor being "old" for a freshman, here's a list of all drafted frosh and sophomore NCAA players.

Its more when compared to prior players such as Eichel and Kessel, we very rarely see top talent play there sophomore season/19 year old season, so when trying to put it in historical context it is a bit of a challenge. Its quite clear he is the best forward prospect in the NCAA, with only Demko and Werenski challenging him for that top spot.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Its more when compared to prior players such as Eichel and Kessel, we very rarely see top talent play there sophomore season/19 year old season, so when trying to put it in historical context it is a bit of a challenge. Its quite clear he is the best forward prospect in the NCAA, with only Demko and Werenski challenging him for that top spot.

It helps to quit thinking of it in a freshman/sophomore context and more in a draft and draft +1 context. Connor is a 19 year old freshman by virtue of his late birthday. 3 months earlier and he would have been drafted in 2014.

Who knows his reason for playing an extra year in the USHL? Was he done his HS yet? Did he fast track it any? Toews played his D and D+1 years in NCAA, which is frosh and sophomore. Connor played his D+1 year in NCAA as a frosh. Oh well. Guess that's what 3 months does for you.

 

[93LEAFS]

It helps to quit thinking of it in a freshman/sophomore context and more in a draft and draft +1 context. Connor is a 19 year old freshman by virtue of his late birthday. 3 months earlier and he would have been drafted in 2014.

Who knows his reason for playing an extra year in the USHL? Was he done his HS yet? Did he fast track it any? Toews played his D and D+1 years in NCAA, which is frosh and sophomore. Connor played his D+1 year in NCAA as a frosh. Oh well. Guess that's what 3 months does for you.

Its a weird balance, I tend to like birth year over draft year when comparing, particularly when it comes to the guys who played in juniors for an extended periods. I believe getting 3 full years in the USHL gives him a slight leg up on guys who only had 2 regardless if they are in the same draft class. Getting an extra year of development with competition at a higher level matters. Either way Connor is having a dominant year, and has practically cemented himself as a top 9 player in a re-draft.

 

[jetman]

Most top end late birthdays are usually in the NCAA during there draft year or go the CHL route. Its rare for a top freshman to have 3 years of USHL experience before entering college. Was just pointing out Connor was older than a lot of the top frosh he gets compared to. There are a bunch of smaller names who played in the NCAA as late birthdays in their draft year, for example AJ Greer, Demko, Jake McCabe, Di Giuseppe, Oleksiac, and Clandening. What Connor is doing is amazing regardless of class, but he's closer in age to most guys who are sophomores. And Toews spent his draft year in the NCAA, similar to Hanifin and Werenski. Also alot of the bigger name late birthdays chose different routes. Tkachuk decommited from ND but would of been a freshman this year, the same is true for Matthews (except he never committed anywhere).

EDIT: Granted to be fair to Connor, a partial reason for this is that the USNDP program makes it slightly easier to advance a year if that is your plan (see Werenski and Hanifin). I'm unsure of when Connor became a highly sought after recruit, but a lot of top prospects know around grade 9 if they will be a big name recruit, and plan school around this. It is much easier to plan accelerating your education when starting high school than trying to do later on. I just can't think of the last high end prospect who had 3 years of USHL experience before going the college route.

Thanks for the explanation. It was a good thing that Connor stayed in the USHL an extra year. Otherwise I doubt the Jets would have got him.

 

[hockeey]

Its a weird balance, I tend to like birth year over draft year when comparing, particularly when it comes to the guys who played in juniors for an extended periods. I believe getting 3 full years in the USHL gives him a slight leg up on guys who only had 2 regardless if they are in the same draft class. Getting an extra year of development with competition at a higher level matters. Either way Connor is having a dominant year, and has practically cemented himself as a top 9 player in a re-draft.

If you look at birth year over draft year then you get the same issue of comparing players where someone who was born February of 97 is seen as a way better prospect than someone born November 96 even though the difference is only a few months. I think using each method you'll run in to the same issues but I like to use draft years just cause the difference usually isn't very big and these are the years players use when playing with peers.

I disagree about how he should have played in the NCAA last year. Harder development years work for some prospects but not for all. It's just like watching some prospects have immediate impacts in the NHL while others need a few years before becoming stars. Based on Connor's production this year, I don't think being in the USHL hurt him last year. It may have actually helped him by giving him more ice time on a team where the offense directly ran through him (something he likely wouldn't have gotten on the same team as Larkin and Hyman who were more mature as players last year).

 

[93LEAFS]

If you look at birth year over draft year then you get the same issue of comparing players where someone who was born February of 97 is seen as a way better prospect than someone born November 96 even though the difference is only a few months. I think using each method you'll run in to the same issues but I like to use draft years just cause the difference usually isn't very big and these are the years players use when playing with peers.

I disagree about how he should have played in the NCAA last year. Harder development years work for some prospects but not for all. It's just like watching some prospects have immediate impacts in the NHL while others need a few years before becoming stars. Based on Connor's production this year, I don't think being in the USHL hurt him last year. It may have actually helped him by giving him more ice time on a team where the offense directly ran through him (something he likely wouldn't have gotten on the same team as Larkin and Hyman who were more mature as players last year).

My point was that extra year in juniors helps him more than the actual age difference between him and the 97's. That is the main reason I value the difference of birth year over draft year on NA prospects. I'd say the difference between someone born on Sept 15th of say 1996 and a player born in August 31st of 1997 is bigger than a player born January 1st 1996 and one born October 15 1996, because the player in the first scenario gets more experience in JR leagues which is a bigger deal than the actual physical developmental the older player has. More repetitions vs tougher opponents will help you advance to the next level with greater ease. The early born players don't get the opportunity to play as much at a higher level outside of rare exceptions. Either way what Connor is doing is impressive, its just that his situation is unique and that makes it harder to compare against many of the prior elite freshman.

 

[lomiller1]

My point was that extra year in juniors helps him more than the actual age difference between him and the 97's.

Connor is a late birth date, just like Auston Matthews is this year, just like Meier and Rantanen were last year just like Taylor Hall was his year and that’s the only sense in which he’s “olderâ€. He didn’t spend a “an extra year in junior†he’s reaching university exactly when he’s supposed to. (He did bypass NTDP in favor of staying in Youngstown but it's hard to see how that is a benefit)

Barring some extenuating circumstance students entering their first year of university will be 18 when they start or very shortly after. It’s not too uncommon to see people who turn 18 just after if they began (Sept, maybe Oct) but you can also occasionally see players like Toews who finished highschool and entered university a full year or perhaps more early but these are the exception, not the rule.

Most players are not drafted out of the NCAA they are drafted, they are in their draft +1 year when they enter the NCAA like Connor, Between Toews and Eichel the only 1st round picks to spend a year in the NCAA before being eligible for the NHL draft were Jamie Oleksiak, Jordan Schroeder, Colin Wilson, Jim O'Brien so while it can be done it’s far from the norm and far from a guarantee the player will be particularly good.

I'd say the difference between someone born on Sept 15th of say 1996 and a player born in August 31st of 1997 is bigger than a player born January 1st 1996 and one born October 15 1996, because the player in the first scenario gets more experience in JR leagues

What? The age difference is simply larger in the first case than the second so of course there is a bigger difference. The difference in ages between a given year/class is a known issue for which adjustments exist. There is no evidence spending more or less time in Jr league helps or hurts because it's too specific to the individual players situation. Ideally they should play in the highest league where they can play significant min with some measure of success.

 

[Whileee]

Kyle Connor one of 10 finalists for the Hobey Baker.*

(* note: Connor's pretty old)