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LW Kyle Connor (2015, 17th, WPG) II

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93LEAFS said:
Except is there any evidence that it matters more than actual production, which is the claim you are making by stating it is more impressive. If you can post something that states it matters and is indicative of future production I might buy it. But, so much of what a player contributes to his teams offence is dictates by ice-time, how much special teams that player gets, and how those teams distribute ice-time. I don't think Connor's season is even close to Nylander's last year, which is the claim you are making. At the end of the day, total production tends to matter more than how it is distributed.

Rantanen plays with the teams best players. If a team stacks its top 2 lines and has absolute garbage on their bottom 2, along with being PP dependent its pretty obvious they will have a high percentage of that teams points.
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I'm not aware of specific analytical studies, but I think it's a pretty logical conclusion.

Players that are in lower scoring leagues don't produce as much.

Players that are on lower scoring teams don't produce as much.

Players that are on offensive powerhouses often have inflated point totals.

There are many examples of this. I agree that it's not as simple as that, but I think it is overly simplistic to simply look at points/game out of the context of the scoring rates of the team and league.
 
Seems like be reallly coming on here. If he is still eligible for rookie status next year I think the Jets have a pretty legitimate shot of having back to back Calder players.
 
Whileee said:
I'm not aware of specific analytical studies, but I think it's a pretty logical conclusion.

Players that are in lower scoring leagues don't produce as much.

Players that are on lower scoring teams don't produce as much.

Players that are on offensive powerhouses often have inflated point totals.

There are many examples of this. I agree that it's not as simple as that, but I think it is overly simplistic to simply look at points/game out of the context of the scoring rates of the team and league.
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Except you claimed he was as productive as Nylander using these measures. Maybe Nylander's team produced elite numbers partially because of him? I mean, Nylander's first year in the AHL the Marlies weren't good before he arrived and he led them to the playoffs.

I understand when you are talking about passenger on elite lines, but Nylander was pretty clearly the most important offensive player on last years Marlies. The logical chain you have presented makes sense, but ppg at that level at certain ages has shown to have co-relation. That co-relation hasn't shown to exist in regards to points percentage at the lower level, at least in any study I am aware of, which is why most statistical models predicting future success have ignored it. Obviously, these models do account for league quality, and era adjustments.

What Connor is doing is good for a bad team, but I don't think breaking players points down to what percentage of their team's points they produce is even analysis. Elite players help teams produce more offense.
 
93LEAFS said:
Except you claimed he was as productive as Nylander using these measures. Maybe Nylander's team produced elite numbers partially because of him? I mean, Nylander's first year in the AHL the Marlies weren't good before he arrived and he led them to the playoffs.

I understand when you are talking about passenger on elite lines, but Nylander was pretty clearly the most important offensive player on last years Marlies. The logical chain you have presented makes sense, but ppg at that level at certain ages has shown to have co-relation. That co-relation hasn't shown to exist in regards to points percentage at the lower level, at least in any study I am aware of, which is why most statistical models predicting future success have ignored it. Obviously, these models do account for league quality, and era adjustments.

What Connor is doing is good for a bad team, but I don't think breaking players points down to what percentage of their team's points they produce is even analysis. Elite players help teams produce more offense.
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Have you seen analysis that looks at the predictive value of points as a percentage. I'd be interested to read it, if you have a link.

I qualified my comparison and was clear about the criterion I was using.

One elite player won't elevate the offense of a really bad team that much. Also, other teams can key in on the best player if there's little depth.
 
Whileee said:
Have you seen analysis that looks at the predictive value of points as a percentage. I'd be interested to read it, if you have a link.

I qualified my comparison and was clear about the criterion I was using.

One elite player won't elevate the offense of a really bad team that much. Also, other teams can key in on the best player if there's little depth.
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The most I can remember seeing it applied was in a passing comment on it in a Hockey Abstract, but it wasn't used as a predictive measure for UFA's at the NHL level. I've never seen it at applied to prospects. Let alone elite ones. I'm pretty sure it was used in the example of a decent top 6 winger, and not a play driving elite talent. I tried googling and looking around for anything when this discussion was originally started a couple days ago and haven't found anything. It is a quality premise, I just wonder how much of it actually carries over.

I do know that it hasn't been incorporated in any analytical model that I have seen in regards to drafting by the numbers at the CHL level. The main reason I would think is because of significant variables that can impact it. The significant problem with the AHL and CHL level is that most of the stats needed to contextualize the numbers such as toi, oiSH%, general usage, etc just aren't publically available. So the without being able to account for these things, the best thing we have is just the raw numbers. For example, Nico Hischier had a great WJC putting up high-end numbers on what was considered a weaker team, but this was counteracted by the fact he played significantly more minutes than any forward on the powerhouse teams. I'm sure some NHL team with much smarter people may have been able to account for team strength, but I haven't seen a model that successfully incorporates it or has put any weight into it.
 
93LEAFS said:
The most I can remember seeing it applied was in a passing comment on it in a Hockey Abstract, but it wasn't used as a predictive measure for UFA's at the NHL level. I've never seen it at applied to prospects. Let alone elite ones. I'm pretty sure it was used in the example of a decent top 6 winger, and not a play driving elite talent. I tried googling and looking around for anything when this discussion was originally started a couple days ago and haven't found anything. It is a quality premise, I just wonder how much of it actually carries over.

I do know that it hasn't been incorporated in any analytical model that I have seen in regards to drafting by the numbers at the CHL level. The main reason I would think is because of significant variables that can impact it. The significant problem with the AHL and CHL level is that most of the stats needed to contextualize the numbers such as toi, oiSH%, general usage, etc just aren't publically available. So the without being able to account for these things, the best thing we have is just the raw numbers. For example, Nico Hischier had a great WJC putting up high-end numbers on what was considered a weaker team, but this was counteracted by the fact he played significantly more minutes than any forward on the powerhouse teams. I'm sure some NHL team with much smarter people may have been able to account for team strength, but I haven't seen a model that successfully incorporates it or has put any weight into it.
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Well, Connor isn't getting a huge boost in ToI, and he's had some rather pedestrian line-mates (two grinders in Cormier and Lipon, lately).

Suffice to say, I think his production is impressive considering his circumstances.
 
Whileee said:
Well, Connor isn't getting a huge boost in ToI, and he's had some rather pedestrian line-mates (two grinders in Cormier and Lipon, lately).

Suffice to say, I think his production is impressive considering his circumstances.
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I don't disagree with that aspect, I just think its a bit far reaching to compare his production to Nylander's last year where there was massive gap in ppg.

I mean, I can say Nathan Mackinnon, Radim Vrbata and Nicklas Backstrom (all around 31%) contribute the same amount to their team's overall points percentage but are they really equal players or are their seasons really equal? You really think if those guys switch with Backstrom they are putting up the same level of production?
 
93LEAFS said:
I don't disagree with that aspect, I just think its a bit far reaching to compare his production to Nylander's last year where there was massive gap in ppg.

I mean, I can say Nathan Mackinnon, Radim Vrbata and Nicklas Backstrom (all around 31%) contribute the same amount to their team's overall points percentage but are they really equal players or are their seasons really equal? You really think if those guys switch with Backstrom they are putting up the same level of production?
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You can cherry pick examples both ways. Vrbata has more points/game than either Duchene or MacKinnon so by your criteria he's better offensively than either of them.
 
Whileee said:
You can cherry pick examples both ways. Vrbata has more points/game than either Duchene or MacKinnon so by your criteria he's better offensively than either of them.
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I never said to ignore it, it was more in the case of Backstrom, the gap between him and Mackinnon is .34ppg or .26ppg in Vrbata's case. You were applying it in a case where there was a massive gap in actual production, and weighting it more.

I haven't done the math for percentages in the AHL last year, but Nylander had a higher ppg .44 and if they were equal in percentage they contributed to their team, I would say that is a massive gap. The difference between Vrbata and Mackinnon is like .08. If the percentages are in the same ballpark, you have to give credence to the guy who is significantly outproducing the other in just general ppg.
 
Whileee said:
Well, Connor isn't getting a huge boost in ToI, and he's had some rather pedestrian line-mates (two grinders in Cormier and Lipon, lately).

Suffice to say, I think his production is impressive considering his circumstances.
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Was he not playing with Roslovic earlier?
 
Where is the posters that called him a bust?:laugh: he's showing why he was '' over hyped'' last year :popcorn:
 
Yasuo said:
Where is the posters that called him a bust?:laugh: he's showing why he was '' over hyped'' last year :popcorn:
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Anyone saying that is uneducated, frankly. You can't watch Connor play a game, even when he's not scoring, and say 'he's not going to be a player". He's definitely going to be a very good offensive producer in the NHL sooner rather than later.

He checks all the boxes and then some. It's not hard to see if you watch him play. It hits you in the face.
 
Le Golie said:
Anyone saying that is uneducated, frankly. You can't watch Connor play a game, even when he's not scoring, and say 'he's not going to be a player". He's definitely going to be a very good offensive producer in the NHL sooner rather than later.

He checks all the boxes and then some. It's not hard to see if you watch him play. It hits you in the face.
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Yup. A lot of "scoreboard scouts" around here. He actually showed very good signs with the Jets early in the season, and it was only a matter of time before his offensive production came in the AHL, considering his skills. He has absolutely dynamic speed and can handle the puck at full tilt. He's also a terrific finisher.
 
Yasuo said:
Where is the posters that called him a bust?:laugh: he's showing why he was '' over hyped'' last year :popcorn:
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Two goals in an AHL game! awesome!


Nobody is even calling him a bust. At all. Get over yourselves. People are saying that he was substantially overhyped last season, and newsflash, he was. Literally I haven't seen anybody say he was a bust. No one.


Everybody knows he can play, everyone. Its not a secret. Comparing him to Eichel, saying things like "does this guy even have a ceiling" saying he's better than Marner. All things said by multiple posters multiple times.

Also: on the same level w/ the Finns.
 
TLEHMANN said:
Two goals in an AHL game! awesome!


Nobody is even calling him a bust. At all. Get over yourselves. People are saying that he was substantially overhyped last season, and newsflash, he was. Literally I haven't seen anybody say he was a bust. No one.


Everybody knows he can play, everyone. Its not a secret. Comparing him to Eichel, saying things like "does this guy even have a ceiling" saying he's better than Marner. All things said by multiple posters multiple times.

Also: on the same level w/ the Finns.
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Yes, one season decides everything. (Who cares if they were comparing his college production with Eichel? Nobody said he was as good, they were just excited about how good Connor was in college).
 
TLEHMANN said:
Two goals in an AHL game! awesome!


Nobody is even calling him a bust. At all. Get over yourselves. People are saying that he was substantially overhyped last season, and newsflash, he was. Literally I haven't seen anybody say he was a bust. No one.


Everybody knows he can play, everyone. Its not a secret. Comparing him to Eichel, saying things like "does this guy even have a ceiling" saying he's better than Marner. All things said by multiple posters multiple times.

Also: on the same level w/ the Finns.
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Posters have called him a bust on these forums, whether or not they were just trolls is a different matter.
 
TLEHMANN said:
Two goals in an AHL game! awesome!


Nobody is even calling him a bust. At all. Get over yourselves. People are saying that he was substantially overhyped last season, and newsflash, he was. Literally I haven't seen anybody say he was a bust. No one.


Everybody knows he can play, everyone. Its not a secret. Comparing him to Eichel, saying things like "does this guy even have a ceiling" saying he's better than Marner. All things said by multiple posters multiple times.

Also: on the same level w/ the Finns.
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There were tons of people that have called him a bust because he got sent to the AHL at 20. Just because you never noticed something doesn't mean it didn't happen. It was not an uncommon opinion before he started performing on the stat sheet the way he was preforming on the ice
 
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