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LW Kyle Connor (2015, 17th, WPG) II

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lomiller1 said:
Previously you were just moving the goalposts around on where you place the cut-off for age group which is wrong. You need to pick a grouping and stick with it all the way though, but now you've gone completely off the rails. Mark Scheiflele didn’t enter the CHL until he was 17. Connor McDavid entered at 15. Should we be saying Scheifele was 2 years younger at his NHL draft because of this? It doesn’t really make a lot of sense.

When comparing 2 players performance in given league, age group has been shown to make a difference. When they were born within their age group, makes a difference as well, but a smaller one. Either by university year or NHL draft year Connor is in the group 4 years older than Vesey. He's in an older part of his group than Vesey but their age grouping are 4 years apart.
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Exceptional status is such a rare situation, its not worth discussing (but I would say they have a slight leg up on their fellow birth year, see Stamkos vs Tavares). I prefer the January 1st cutoff for players who play in leagues that use that cutoff. Connor played in 1 that did. I'd measure against birth year for Scheifele (or more recently Senyshen) they might be slightly more raw, but they had access and played in 16 or older leagues in the year they didn't play in the OHL. I'm not measuring fully by when they joined the league, but by when they could of joined.

By university year Connor is only 3 years younger than Vesey, and grades have a more arbitrary cut off point than birth year. You want to say NHL/Grade year is most relevant, while I believe Birth year (that dictates when you are eligible for Jr leagues in Canada/USA) as the more important factor. I believe your wrong, but we fundamentally disagree. I think the opportunity to play in a tougher league is a bigger advantage than the actual developmental gap as knowing when teens mature is erratic among individuals, as someone like Ekblad can look 30 now (and at 16), while Ehlers still looks like a kid.
 
canwincup said:
Yikes that's a terrible team....
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haha was just thinking the same thing... there is nobody else that they can find yet???... I was pumped that Connor was named and figured he was the only non NHLer maybe, but then I also saw they named Motte and Compher to the team and it kinda ruined the moment for me haha... I was kinda hoping Connor would be the only one but obviously they are going with a real young squad... oh well, good for the NCAA guys!!!
 
93LEAFS said:
I prefer the January 1st cutoff for players who play in leagues that use that cutoff.
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If you want to compare players draft, Draft +1, etc years you need to use the cut-off for NHL draft year. This isn't optional.

If you want to compare players freshman, sophomore, Junior Senior years in university you need to use the university academic year as a cut-off. This is not optional either.

In Connor's freshman year was the same age as people who go directly from high scholl to university. In Vesey's freshman year he was the same age as people who take a year off after high school or players who red-shirt for a year.
 
lomiller1 said:
If you want to compare players draft, Draft +1, etc years you need to use the cut-off for NHL draft year. This isn't optional.

If you want to compare players freshman, sophomore, Junior Senior years in university you need to use the university academic year as a cut-off. This is not optional either.

In Connor's freshman year was the same age as people who go directly from high scholl to university. In Vesey's freshman year he was the same age as people who take a year off after high school or players who red-shirt for a year.
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No, considering development changes, I'm using the USHL date because Connor used the advantage of being of playing high level juniors. Their birth years are 3 years apart, and their school years are 3 years apart. And I didn't use draft year at all, but I think its better to compare late-birthdays 2nd years to early birthdays draft years, especially since all Jr leagues use the Jan 1st cutoff. And to your second point its entirely optional, and as shown when kids are registered for school is not all dictated by birth year. Late 96's were in college last year (Eichel, Greer,) and a bunch of late 97's were playing this year (Kunin, McAvoy, Thompson), so it is far from absolute. I'd say birth year is a better measure when someone uses it to access a higher-quality league with age restrictions earlier than the remainder of their draft class due to being born in an earlier calander year. Connor used this to play in the USHL ahead of guys like White, Boeser etc. Vesey and Connor were both in what would of been their 4th year of Jr hockey eligibility in their freshman year. I prefer that if a player chose to play junior hockey, it may be different in the cases of guys who came out of prep hockey, but Connor chose the USHL path, and Vesey played a jr year prior to enrolling.
 
93LEAFS said:
No, considering development changes, I'm using the USHL date because Connor used the advantage of being of playing high level juniors.
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Again no. You need to compare apples to apples. If you want to compare university year, then you need to use university year cut-off if you want to compate draft year you need to use NHL draft cut-off you don't get to mix and match in order to get the result you are looking for.

93LEAFS said:
and their school years are 3 years apart.
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Vesey is now 5 years out form both his draft year and his true freshman year. Had he started university as a true freshman he'd have graduated a year ago. Instead he started university as a 19 year old and turned 20 in his first year there. Connor is one year out from both, started university at 18 and turned 19 hos first year there. There is no sensible way to say that's "the same age".
 
lomiller1 said:
If you want to compare players draft, Draft +1, etc years you need to use the cut-off for NHL draft year. This isn't optional.

If you want to compare players freshman, sophomore, Junior Senior years in university you need to use the university academic year as a cut-off. This is not optional either.

In Connor's freshman year was the same age as people who go directly from high scholl to university. In Vesey's freshman year he was the same age as people who take a year off after high school or players who red-shirt for a year.
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Watch out, pretty soon the "who got their first pair of skates at what age" and the "whose mom was a single mom and couldn't drive their son to practice on a regular basis" argument will be brought in to it. Or how about the number of ice rinks within the relative distance from a kids house? oooh do kids from California get exempt cause the could take their bikes to practice, where Canadian kids with snow, get knocked down cause bikes and snow are a bad combination.
 
93LEAFS said:
I think its better to compare late-birthdays 2nd years to early birthdays draft years
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So now the late birthday is an early birthday in the group you are lumping them in with and you've lost the ability to do a more rational correction for early/late birthday. I guess you could apply a correction to correction for your previous correction and work from there, but how much sense does that make?


93LEAFS said:
especially since all Jr leagues use the Jan 1st cutoff.
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Jr league cutoff is irrelevant for either comparing them to their draft peers, or for comparing them to their academic years peers as was being done here.
 
lomiller1 said:
Again no. You need to compare apples to apples. If you want to compare university year, then you need to use university year cut-off if you want to compate draft year you need to use NHL draft cut-off you don't get to mix and match in order to get the result you are looking for.


Vesey is now 5 years out form both his draft year and his true freshman year. Had he started university as a true freshman he'd have graduated a year ago. Instead he started university as a 19 year old and turned 20 in his first year there. Connor is one year out from both, started university at 18 and turned 19 hos first year there. There is no sensible way to say that's "the same age".
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I'm not picking and choosing, considering both played JR hockey, I'm using the Jr hockey cutoff. Which I use for any player that chooses that route as a developmental path. It is different for HS hockey guys who go straight to college. Both started their frosh years in what would be their 4th year of jr hockey, considering both entered NCAA hockey from this route I'd say its a fair cut-off point.

To get an accurate picture you need to factor in both, but if you insist on it being a black and white issue, I would say going by jr league eligibility is more accurate if both used that as their primary league compared to draft year or grade year. Vesey and Connor are born 3 years apart, they had used 3 years of jr eligibility prior to enrolling (and played in jr leagues prior to NCAA). And you keep on saying Vesey turned 20 in his frosh year, his birthday is outside the traditional school year, both played a majority of their freshman season at 19.
 
93LEAFS said:
I'm not picking and choosing, considering both played JR hockey, I'm using the Jr hockey cutoff. .
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Which isn't useful for comparing either draft year peers or academic year peers in NCAA which is the discussion actually taking place. The only apparent reason for you to insist on using it is that it give you the result you happen to be looking for.
 
lomiller1 said:
So now the late birthday is an early birthday in the group you are lumping them in with and you've lost the ability to do a more rational correction for early/late birthday. I guess you could apply a correction to correction for your previous correction and work from there, but how much sense does that make?



Jr league cutoff is irrelevant for either comparing them to their draft peers, or for comparing them to their academic years peers as was being done here.
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Aren't Greer and Eichel his peers more than Boeser, McAvoy etc? Both are much closer birth date wise? School year can easily change (and be manipulated, just follow college bball recruiting), and is not a great measuring tool for high-end athletics. What I'm saying is the advantage to play more challenging leagues earlier in comparison with draft years is actually a bigger advantage than Jan birthdays have over December birthdays in regards to physical development.

I think its best to compare him to guys who started USHL at the same age as him, that is not manipulating anything.
 
93LEAFS said:
Both started their frosh years in what would be their 4th year of jr hockey, .
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Useless. Age is important. How many years they played in their previous league isn't. In fact beyond useless since you are trying to use a definition under which Connor is never eligible to play an NCAA freshman season at all because he was still in high school for what you are calling his "freshman year". How stupid is that?
 
93LEAFS said:
Aren't Greer and Eichel his peers more than Boeser, McAvoy etc?
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Connor and Eichel were born 8 weeks apart Connor and Boeser were born 10 weeks apart. How does it make sense that Connor and Eichel "are peers" and Connor and Boeser "aren't" even though all three are the same draft year?
 
lomiller1 said:
Useless. Age is important. How many years they played in their previous league isn't. In fact beyond useless since you are trying to use a definition under which Connor is never eligible to play an NCAA freshman season at all because he was still in high school for what you are calling his "freshman year". How stupid is that?
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Except it seems to be common place for late birthdays. Vesey is a sr, Connor is a frosh. You are the one trying to argue otherwise. Alot of Vesey age peers are in their first post grad year, alot of Connors age peers are sophomores. They are only 3 years apart in hockey development years, you just want to ignore Connor played 3 years of USHL hockey, which was key in development. Neither is a 100% true, but the fact you believe one is, is overly simplistic.
 
lomiller1 said:
Connor and Eichel were born 8 weeks apart Connor and Boeser were born 10 weeks apart. How does it make sense that Connor and Eichel "are peers" and Connor and Boeser "aren't" even though all three are the same draft year?
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I'd say the fact all 3 entered USHL at the same age, is a much better representation than players who only had 2 years. I don't know how you can't count that as part of their hockey development, its an extar year of high level experience. You want to hold this against Vesey in one case (took an extra year school wise to get a junior year), but not hold it against Connor when compared to Boeser, White and McAvoy, which is hypocritical. Using only when it helps your guy.
 
93LEAFS said:
I'd say the fact all 3 entered USHL at the same age, is a much better representation than players who only had 2 years.
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Age and birth dates (along with height but not weight in their draft year) have an impact on how a players scoring translates at the next level. How many years they spent in the USHL or CHL prior to that does not.
 
lomiller1 said:
Most, in fact.



Some, but they'd be the exceptions.
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I think in the perspective of high-end hockey prospects its fairly equally balanced (Eichel, Greer vs Forsbacka-Karlson, Borgen and Connor), especially with the amount of reclassification (while not basketball bad, still quite common). Among the common student, its obviously skewed in your direction. But since we are discussing them as hockey talents, I would say that is all that matters. But we fundamentally disagree, and we aren't gonna change each others minds.

As for Connor, it will be interesting to see how he does at the WC, should be a good set up considering his speed will play on bigger ice.
 
lomiller1 said:
Some Leaf fans feel threatened by prospects who has a better season than the player their team took, and try to find any reason to disparage them.
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No, but I have no interest in a Marner vs Connor debate. I'm fine with our pick. My problem is trying to say Vesey is 4 developmental years ahead, when its far from absolute. You were trying to disparage Vesey accomplishments.

lomiller1 said:
Age and birth dates (along with height but not weight in their draft year) have an impact on how a players scoring translates at the next level. How many years they spent in the USHL or CHL prior to that does not.
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I was using it in regards to determining age of development. Considering you don't think Vesey classification by university year as being accurate.
 
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