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LW Kyle Connor (2015, 17th, WPG) II

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mynameistickle said:
Well to me discussing the finer points of the strength of prospects coming from the CHL vs NCAA and their historical impact on the NHL is a whole thread in and of itself. But that discussion will be very one sided because its painstakingly obvious the CHL has produced more elite scoring talent, which I think you've already mentioned in this thread.

The deal is this: this a new era in NCAA Men's Div. I Hockey. The league has become much more defensive-minded and lower scoring than in the days of Kariya. The landscape of the league as a whole has drastically changed with the realignment which you have touched on. We're seeing the percentage of NHL players coming from NCAA development backgrounds rising to an all time high. Albeit mainly players serving in bottom-6F/bottom-4 D capacities. But it is still very hard to say, at this point, what Connor's season means in terms of his potential NHL ceiling and how to put it all into perspective going forward. I think he'll write his own story better than any we can predict with our amateur analysis with player comparables and NHLe, ect.

Im much more interested in what Connor needs to do to take the next step in his development and what is best for him next season, NCAA vs turing pro. I think he's ready for the AHL (best route for his development IMHO) but I do think he should maybe go back for another season in NCAA to really bare down and focus more of the defensive side of the puck.
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+1 for this thoughtful post. The new era of the NCAA makes discussing whether Connor would put up 2 ppg in the OHL (like Marner, Strome, etc.) or how his NCAA output compares to others (Eichel/Larkin/Gaurdreau/Kariya etc.) is rather pointless. The real issue of projecting him as an NHLer and he will chart his own course better than any "amateur analysis".

As far as next year, I believe he should stay in the NCAA and use the extra time to continue to get bigger/faster/stronger. Michigan has a long history of Berenson saying essentially "if a player is ready for the NHL, I'll gladly support that decision, but to leave and play in the AHL is something I am not on board with." I do not think Michigan views him as NHL ready in terms of strength and I presume that will be a selling point by the Michigan staff to come back for one more season.

To illustrate, North Dakota defense first mentality manhandled Michigan on the weekend and Connor's line struggled a bit against that defensive pressure. Connor needs to gain man strength to be effective as an NHLer and he can gradually bulk up at Michigan in season and turn pro after next season versus playing for the Moose. If he was fully physically developed my opinion might differ.
 
93LEAFS said:
He'd be in his 4th year, he's a 96 birth year, do you even follow the CHL? How do you not know eligibility is determined by birth year? Next year he'd be an overager. And I'm not saying the quality is higher, just that more high end offensive talent comes through the OHL, which is true. Until Eichel no top forward prospect had gone the NCAA route since JVR, Turris and Toews (none who became elite scorers at the NHL level), the best point producers to play in the NCAA were Kessel and Parise, Gaudreau is also a decent baseline (but again another hockey east guy and hit 2ppg as a junior), so there are very few top scorers to compare #'s with, and for the Big 10 a baseline is basically non-existent.

And Tkachuk is a terrible comparable, maybe if you put Connor on Marner and Dvorak's line his numbers would be McDavid or Kane level, but so would Marner's and Dvorak's. Tkachuk heavily relies on secondary assists having 41 of them to guys like Marner (only 25) or Strome (only 28). Plus, comparing guys from the USNDP to regular USHL guys is not a good idea. But if you want to go that route look at Sonny Milano, who averaged more ppg than Connor in the USHL and put up 1.36 in the OHL. Now Milano situation was the opposites of Tkachuk.
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WRONG

He would be in his 4th year

He's a 1996 born
 
93LEAFS said:
He'd be in his 4th year, he's a 96 birth year, do you even follow the CHL? How do you not know eligibility is determined by birth year? Next year he'd be an overager. And I'm not saying the quality is higher, just that more high end offensive talent comes through the OHL, which is true. Until Eichel no top forward prospect had gone the NCAA route since JVR, Turris and Toews (none who became elite scorers at the NHL level), the best point producers to play in the NCAA were Kessel and Parise, Gaudreau is also a decent baseline (but again another hockey east guy and hit 2ppg as a junior), so there are very few top scorers to compare #'s with, and for the Big 10 a baseline is basically non-existent.

And Tkachuk is a terrible comparable, maybe if you put Connor on Marner and Dvorak's line his numbers would be McDavid or Kane level, but so would Marner's and Dvorak's. Tkachuk heavily relies on secondary assists having 41 of them to guys like Marner (only 25) or Strome (only 28). Plus, comparing guys from the USNDP to regular USHL guys is not a good idea. But if you want to go that route look at Sonny Milano, who averaged more ppg than Connor in the USHL and put up 1.36 in the OHL. Now Milano situation was the opposites of Tkachuk.
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Mickey the mouse said:
WRONG

He would be in his 4th year

He's a 1996 born
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Huh? you repeated what I said then said I was wrong. I said he'd be a 4th year guy if he played this year. If he played next season he'd be an overager, whereas Marner and Strome would be in their 4th OHL season.
 
My goodness this thread has deteriorated recently. Very unfortunate that it had to become one of the typical pumping my prospect vs. denigrating this prospect because my team's prospect was chosen ahead.

Perhaps I missed this somewhere in the pages of posts in the last few days that I can't bear to read, so excuse me if that's the case, but have either Connor or the Jets made any public comments about signing a contract? I'm interested to see if he might get in some NHL or AHL games before season's end.
 
thrillhous said:
My goodness this thread has deteriorated recently. Very unfortunate that it had to become one of the typical pumping my prospect vs. denigrating this prospect because my team's prospect was chosen ahead.

Perhaps I missed this somewhere in the pages of posts in the last few days that I can't bear to read, so excuse me if that's the case, but have either Connor or the Jets made any public comments about signing a contract? I'm interested to see if he might get in some NHL or AHL games before season's end.
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I know. thread has turned so annoying with annoying replies

I knew a while back as soon as someone mentioned Marner in here that it would... I called it!!haha
 
thrillhous said:
My goodness this thread has deteriorated recently. Very unfortunate that it had to become one of the typical pumping my prospect vs. denigrating this prospect because my team's prospect was chosen ahead.

Perhaps I missed this somewhere in the pages of posts in the last few days that I can't bear to read, so excuse me if that's the case, but have either Connor or the Jets made any public comments about signing a contract? I'm interested to see if he might get in some NHL or AHL games before season's end.
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Haven't read anything on the subject myself. Jets would have to protect him from a 2nd expansion draft if he played even 1 game this year, so from our stand point there's no reason having him come in to play right now.
 
Reminds me a lot of a smaller Patrick Marleau with a higher motor. Could do pretty much everything but really excels with speed and an insanely fast and accurate release.
 
Connor will win the Hobey - here's why his numbers compare very favorably to those of Eichel last year:

Michigan’s Big Ten schedule wasn’t as arduous as that of Boston University last season, but looking closer at the numbers again shows a favorable comparison. Eichel played in 19 games against ranked teams in 2014-15, scoring 11 goals and 16 assists for a points per game average against ranked teams of 1.42. Eichel’s overall PPG average was 1.78.

Connor’s Wolverines played in 13 games this season against teams ranked at the time, with the freshman posting 13 goals and 12 assists for a PPG average of 1.92 in games against ranked teams. His overall PPG was 1.87, not as marked a difference between ranked and overall as Eichel’s.

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/hobeywatch#ixzz44ZzWf5Nz
 
BigGreenAlum said:
+1 for this thoughtful post. The new era of the NCAA makes discussing whether Connor would put up 2 ppg in the OHL (like Marner, Strome, etc.) or how his NCAA output compares to others (Eichel/Larkin/Gaurdreau/Kariya etc.) is rather pointless. The real issue of projecting him as an NHLer and he will chart his own course better than any "amateur analysis".

As far as next year, I believe he should stay in the NCAA and use the extra time to continue to get bigger/faster/stronger. Michigan has a long history of Berenson saying essentially "if a player is ready for the NHL, I'll gladly support that decision, but to leave and play in the AHL is something I am not on board with." I do not think Michigan views him as NHL ready in terms of strength and I presume that will be a selling point by the Michigan staff to come back for one more season.

To illustrate, North Dakota defense first mentality manhandled Michigan on the weekend and Connor's line struggled a bit against that defensive pressure. Connor needs to gain man strength to be effective as an NHLer and he can gradually bulk up at Michigan in season and turn pro after next season versus playing for the Moose. If he was fully physically developed my opinion might differ.
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I disagree with your premise. It doesn't matter how Berenson or Michigan feel regarding Connor's strength, but rather it matters how the team likely to currently be preparing to offer him a contract feels, and whether or not the player himself agrees. The Jets employ a full-time director of fitness (Dr. Craig Slaunwhite) who surely has measured Connor's strength at development camp already, and they've likely since updated his weight, etc.

Gaudreau weighs, what, a buck sixty?

Several Jets prospects have in the past attended Gary Roberts' gym during the off-season. Connor has already destroyed the NCAA scoring ranks as a 19 y/o; he has nothing left to learn there. He clearly already possesses the speed and decision-making processes of a pro. A summer spent working out with Mark Scheifele at Roberts' gym would be more beneficial toward developing a true professional than would a wasted year in college hockey. He is ready.
 
Gump Hasek said:
I disagree with your premise. It doesn't matter how Berenson or Michigan feel regarding Connor's strength, but rather it matters how the team likely to currently be preparing to offer him a contract feels, and whether or not the player himself agrees. The Jets employ a full-time director of fitness (Dr. Craig Slaunwhite) who surely has measured Connor's strength at development camp already, and they've likely since updated his weight, etc.

Gaudreau weighs, what, a buck sixty?

Several Jets prospects have in the past attended Gary Roberts' gym during the off-season. Connor has already destroyed the NCAA scoring ranks as a 19 y/o; he has nothing left to learn there. He clearly already possesses the speed and decision-making processes of a pro. A summer spent working out with Mark Scheifele at Roberts' gym would be more beneficial toward developing a true professional than would a wasted year in college hockey. He is ready.
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Appreciate your thoughts, reasonable minds can disagree. Gaudreau is a waterbug and avoids hits/traffic like Barry Sanders whereas Connor is big skilled winger who will be more involved in traffic with defenders so I think he needs to be strong enough to do so. 6'1" 175 is slight and I think he needs more than a summer to develop an NHL body. For sure Jets execs will have input but so will Michigan staff as Red has seen it all and can chime in with his thoughts.

Connor's camp confirmed today he won't sign now and I suspect if he goes to the WC for Team USA he (and his advisors and the Jets) will all have a better understanding if he is ready.
 
BigGreenAlum said:
Appreciate your thoughts, reasonable minds can disagree. Gaudreau is a waterbug and avoids hits/traffic like Barry Sanders whereas Connor is big skilled winger who will be more involved in traffic with defenders so I think he needs to be strong enough to do so. 6'1" 175 is slight and I think he needs more than a summer to develop an NHL body. For sure Jets execs will have input but so will Michigan staff as Red has seen it all and can chime in with his thoughts.

Connor's camp confirmed today he won't sign now and I suspect if he goes to the WC for Team USA he (and his advisors and the Jets) will all have a better understanding if he is ready.
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I hadn't heard this. Source?
 
The specific comment was that he would not play in the NHL this seasons, so signing in the off-season is still a possibility. It's possible the Jets are covering themselves against having to protect him if there is a 2018 expansion draft.
 
BigGreenAlum said:
Appreciate your thoughts, reasonable minds can disagree. Gaudreau is a waterbug and avoids hits/traffic like Barry Sanders whereas Connor is big skilled winger who will be more involved in traffic with defenders so I think he needs to be strong enough to do so. 6'1" 175 is slight and I think he needs more than a summer to develop an NHL body. For sure Jets execs will have input but so will Michigan staff as Red has seen it all and can chime in with his thoughts.

Connor's camp confirmed today he won't sign now and I suspect if he goes to the WC for Team USA he (and his advisors and the Jets) will all have a better understanding if he is ready.
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Elliotte Friedman only said that Connor wasn't playing this season; that wasn't at all a surprise given the concern regarding protection status for future expansion drafts. He'll likely be signing in the summer, in my view.

PS: 175 was his weight at the draft. He weighed in at Jets camp last summer at 177, and spent the past season lifting weights at college. I doubt he weighs 175 right now; he has likely added some lean muscle mass to his frame as he ages.
 
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Gump Hasek said:
Elliotte Friedman only said that Connor wasn't playing this season; that wasn't at all a surprise given the concern regarding protection status for future expansion drafts. He'll likely be signing in the summer, in my view.
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It would be a waste for him to go back for another year. If he was close to earning a degree, I'd get it (Jimmy Vesey), but with 3 more years of college left , there's just no point in going back to a league he'll dominate.
 
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