I could see something like Larkin's year, but Larkin has also had a bit of luck in-regards to on-ice shooting percentage. My guess is he has a year similar to Ehlers if he's with the team the entire year, but I could easily see him starting in the AHL depending on how the draft goes. He's a great prospect and goes top 10 most likely in a re-draft, but I'd say the Big 10 NHLe numbers are pretty useless as even conferences with a track record they are a mess.
All ELCs are two way. I agree that he'll likely play in the NHL but there will be nothing stopping the Jets assigning him to the AHL if they choose to
I doubt he goes top 6, I don't see him passing any of the top 5 and Provorov, plus Rantanen also has a strong case to stay ahead. League average is closer to 7.5 than 9.2, with only the most elite of players can keep it continually above 10 (think prime Crosby, 50 goal Stamkos etc), while not out of wack, it is far from being low.
I'm pretty sure he gets passed over for McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Hanifin and Provorov, and most current rankings reflect this. And how do you think he'd put up double his rate? That is actually a joke, if you seriously think he would outproduce what McDavid and Crosby did, your delusional. Look at the numbers the best players who became Art Ross contenders put up in the CHL. Eichel put up very similar #'s to Connor in a harder conference and is getting out produced by McDavid by a sizable margin. Eichel also has a lower per minute rate than Mackinnon, Skinner, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, and Kane did in their rookie years. Considering that in the 3 separate prospect lists released Connor is ahead of Marner on one, same with Rantanen and behind Provorov, and Strome on all, I'd say your opinion is in the minority.
Well what else is there to go off of? That he'd put up 142 in a full OHL season? That would basically be .05 more ppg than Marner, and .12 more than Strome, and I highly doubt he would do that, with both only being in there 3rd year of junior, it would be Connors 4th.
Look at the list of guys who've broken 2 ppg in the OHL for consecutive years in the last 20 years, its just Marner and Tavares. While the NCAA has older players, way more high end talent goes the OHL route when compared to the Big 10. Explain to me how guys who scored at a lesser rate to Marner and Strome in Fabbri and Domi are scoring at a more efficient rate than Eichel who had similar numbers to Connor but in a significantly harder conference. I highly doubt Connor can top what guys like Tavares and Hall did in there 18 year old OHL seasons, which Marner and Strome have done. How many top 5 scorers has the NCAA produced in the last 10 years, off the top of my head its St Louis and Parise, compare that to the OHL who currently have 2 of the top 5 scorers in the league. Plus Connor would be in his last year, both Marner and Strome are only in there 3rd year of junior hockey. Plus if your going by points vs advanced competition shouldn't Rantanen and Aho, maybe even Kaprizov pass Marner, Strome and Connor?
Larkins even strength team on-ice shooting% at even strength is 10.4, at 5 on 5 its 9.3%. 10.2 is just his regular shooting percentage, I am not talking about that at all. Read this, it explains how team on-ice shooting % has predictive qualities.
I'll just use the last 20 years because as we all know scoring in the 80's and early 90's was insane and only including guys who played at least 45 games. Jason Spezza, Marc Savard, Tavares (failed to do it in his 18 year old year, did it at 16 and 17), and Cory Locke. Guys like Gagner (on Kane's line), Kane, Thornton and McDavid did it and could of gone back. Notice there are a bunch of all star players who played in the OHL and didn't hit this bench mark once (Stamkos, Hall, Seguin, and Bobby Ryan) and a couple stars didn't do it til their 19 year old year (Cory Perry).
He'd be in his 4th year, he's a 96 birth year, do you even follow the CHL? How do you not know eligibility is determined by birth year? Next year he'd be an overager. And I'm not saying the quality is higher, just that more high end offensive talent comes through the OHL, which is true. Until Eichel no top forward prospect had gone the NCAA route since JVR, Turris and Toews (none who became elite scorers at the NHL level), the best point producers to play in the NCAA were Kessel and Parise, Gaudreau is also a decent baseline (but again another hockey east guy and hit 2ppg as a junior), so there are very few top scorers to compare #'s with, and for the Big 10 a baseline is basically non-existent.
