LW Kyle Connor (2015, 17th, WPG) II

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As for the how many top scorers the ncaa produced, that doesn't mean it's an easier league. It's much tougher to score against a team of 23 year olds who are physical and know how to play defense than a team of 18 year olds who are all skilled but have much more room to develop and are not yet mature.

Also, guys like Hall, stamkos, and even tavares didn't have two other guys with over 100points on their teams. Marner may well be the one driving the offense (I believe he is because he is a spectacular prospect), but it helps a lot when you have domi/dvorak/tkachuk who can help out.

Connor's linemates are overage guys who never really produced at a high rate until Connor joined them. Marner is the better prospect, it's why he was picked 4th overall in a strong draft, but people need to realize that Connor should definitely be in the conversation for top prospects and there are aspects of his season that have been more impressive than marners just as there are aspects of marners season that stand out more than Connor's.

Also, what Connor is doing in the NCAA is still more impressive than what Kaprizov, Aho, and maybe (not sure yet) even Rantanen have done. Yes they have all taken huge steps forward in development but their production in the leagues still isn't quite as dominant as what Connor has done

Have to agree. Conner is doing amazing things and he definitely should have gone top 6-7.
 
As for the how many top scorers the ncaa produced, that doesn't mean it's an easier league. It's much tougher to score against a team of 23 year olds who are physical and know how to play defense than a team of 18 year olds who are all skilled but have much more room to develop and are not yet mature.

Also, guys like Hall, stamkos, and even tavares didn't have two other guys with over 100points on their teams. Marner may well be the one driving the offense (I believe he is because he is a spectacular prospect), but it helps a lot when you have domi/dvorak/tkachuk who can help out.

Connor's linemates are overage guys who never really produced at a high rate until Connor joined them. Marner is the better prospect, it's why he was picked 4th overall in a strong draft, but people need to realize that Connor should definitely be in the conversation for top prospects and there are aspects of his season that have been more impressive than marners just as there are aspects of marners season that stand out more than Connor's.
Connor may be in the discussion, but this poster argued that it was quite clear that Connor was better. Compher is far from a scrub (31 points as an 18 year old in 35 games, is now a junior), Motte had good production as a sophomore (31 in 35) and have stepped up as juniors which happens, due to increased ice time. He also has one of the best offensive defenceman in Werenski.

Did you see Dvorak's numbers jump when he was put on Marners line after struggling in his 17 year old year in the OHL and Marner produced better without Domi. Taylor Hall had a more stacked team, it had Ryan Ellis who was arguably the best offensive D-man in recent OHL history, plus Cam Fowler and Adam Henrique, Tavares had Kadri, Carlson, Del Zoto in his London stint, and Brett Maclean, Del Zotto and Clutterbuck in Oshawa. I'll admit Marner benefits from his line mates, but almost all guys with high end scoring numbers do, Connor has better linemates than Eichel had.

And while Connor is playing against older players, he is also playing with older players at one of the best recruiting schools in the nation which balances things out. Michigan almost always has the most talent on the ice, and I never said it wasn't tough to score in the NCAA, I said there isn't much to draw from to see what a elite point producing prospect should be doing at that level, we have alot more to draw from with the OHL, and to say Connor would challenge McDavid or Kane's production is a huge jump, which the poster implied by saying Marner was too low of a baseline. He also used scoring, league quality and age as examples of why Connor is a top 6 pick, then doesn't even acknowledge Aho and Rantanen's production. Connor belongs in that 7 to 10 grouping, but I don't think he's cracked the top 6 with the top 5 and Provorov.
 
You aren't going to convince people that playing in the OHL is tougher than in College Hockey.... If that's your point at least....

It's simply not true, history will show you that.
 
Connor may be in the discussion, but this poster argued that it was quite clear that Connor was better. Compher is far from a scrub (31 points as an 18 year old in 35 games, is now a junior), Motte had good production as a sophomore (31 in 35) and have stepped up as juniors which happens, due to increased ice time. He also has one of the best offensive defenceman in Werenski.

Did you see Dvorak's numbers jump when he was put on Marners line after struggling in his 17 year old year in the OHL and Marner produced better without Domi. Taylor Hall had a more stacked team, it had Ryan Ellis who was arguably the best offensive D-man in recent OHL history, plus Cam Fowler and Adam Henrique, Tavares had Kadri, Carlson, Del Zoto in his London stint, and Brett Maclean, Del Zotto and Clutterbuck in Oshawa. I'll admit Marner benefits from his line mates, but almost all guys with high end scoring numbers do, Connor has better linemates than Eichel had.

And while Connor is playing against older players, he is also playing with older players at one of the best recruiting schools in the nation which balances things out. Michigan almost always has the most talent on the ice, and I never said it wasn't tough to score in the NCAA, I said there isn't much to draw from to see what a elite point producing prospect should be doing at that level, we have alot more to draw from with the OHL, and to say Connor would challenge McDavid or Kane's production is a huge jump, which the poster implied by saying Marner was too low of a baseline. He also used scoring, league quality and age as examples of why Connor is a top 6 pick, then doesn't even acknowledge Aho and Rantanen's production. Connor belongs in that 7 to 10 grouping, but I don't think he's cracked the top 6 with the top 5 and Provorov.

Your whole arguement is based on other people haven't done it so Connor wouldn't do it, which is severely flawed. He is doing things that others haven't done in the NCAA, but he couldn't in the CHL? Thinking 17 year old players are harder to play against than 23 year old physically developed and 5-6 years of skill development is just bizarre. You are so focused on marner that you can't see beyond him. There isn't much that I say that you won't try to skew to mcdavids couldn't do it, or Connor is with good players, or 17 year olds are better than 23 year olds, so we will see how he turns out. By you measurements garland should be the best player in the NHL soon, but wait he is in the Q so that doesn't count.
 
You aren't going to convince people that playing in the OHL is tougher than in College Hockey.... If that's your point at least....

It's simply not true, history will show you that.
Thats not my point. My point is Connor is far from a lock to put up a better ppg in the OHL than Marner or Strome did. Connor was also surrounded by top talent and rarely played a team that had more talent than his (Marner benefits from this to this year, but not last year). I never said college hockey was easier, all I said was figuring out what level of production in the NCAA is reflective of a high end offensive talent is difficult, and it is compounded by the fact the sample size for the big 10 is non-existent. To think Connor would easily put up a significantly higher ppg than Marner or Strome is just flat out ignoring the type of talents it usually takes to do that. Breaking the 2 ppg mark in the OHL is very hard, guys like Tavares capped out at that. While I agree lower scorers in the NCAA can come to the CHL and be 50 to 60 point guys (Piccinich for example), but I don't think that holds true at the very top.
 
Your whole arguement is based on other people haven't done it so Connor wouldn't do it, which is severely flawed. He is doing things that others haven't done in the NCAA, but he couldn't in the CHL? Thinking 17 year old players are harder to play against than 23 year old physically developed and 5-6 years of skill development is just bizarre. You are so focused on marner that you can't see beyond him. There isn't much that I say that you won't try to skew to mcdavids couldn't do it, or Connor is with good players, or 17 year olds are better than 23 year olds, so we will see how he turns out. By you measurements garland should be the best player in the NHL soon, but wait he is in the Q so that doesn't count.

What are you going on about? You just get super defensive when someone posts something you don't agree with? Settle down bud
 
Thats not my point. My point is Connor is far from a lock to put up a better ppg in the OHL than Marner or Strome did. Connor was also surrounded by top talent and rarely played a team that had more talent than his (Marner benefits from this to this year, but not last year). I never said college hockey was easier, all I said was figuring out what level of production in the NCAA is reflective of a high end offensive talent is difficult, and it is compounded by the fact the sample size for the big 10 is non-existent. To think Connor would easily put up a significantly higher ppg than Marner or Strome is just flat out ignoring the type of talents it usually takes to do that. Breaking the 2 ppg mark in the OHL is very hard, guys like Tavares capped out at that. While I agree lower scorers in the NCAA can come to the CHL and be 50 to 60 point guys (Piccinich for example), but I don't think that holds true at the very top.

Werenski and who else? Surely you aren't insinuating that Compher or Motte are on the same level, or anywhere near, Tkachuk or Dvorak?
 
Your whole arguement is based on other people haven't done it so Connor wouldn't do it, which is severely flawed. He is doing things that others haven't done in the NCAA, but he couldn't in the CHL? Thinking 17 year old players are harder to play against than 23 year old physically developed and 5-6 years of skill development is just bizarre. You are so focused on marner that you can't see beyond him. There isn't much that I say that you won't try to skew to mcdavids couldn't do it, or Connor is with good players, or 17 year olds are better than 23 year olds, so we will see how he turns out. By you measurements garland should be the best player in the NHL soon, but wait he is in the Q so that doesn't count.
When did I even say this? Also great job picking the oldest players in NCAA and the 2nd year age of CHL players to make the disparity bigger.

Gaudreau had a better ppg only 2 years ago , and he was only a year older than Connor, in a harder conference. Eichel had a similar year while being a year younger in a harder conference. And when did I say points are the be all and end all? Your the one who repeatedly cites Connor's point totals and that he'd put up McDavid or Kane numbers, you actually brought up points in the first place as your reasoning on why he'd be a top 6 pick. Why are guys like Domi or Fabbri scoring at a better per minute rate than Eichel, or the fact McDavid is blowing Eichels totals away. You've said what Connor's done is rare, I agree with that, but so few top scorers come out of the NCAA you don't have much to compare it to, what do his point totals indicate about his scoring potential at the next level?
 
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Werenski and who else? Surely you aren't insinuating that Compher or Motte are on the same level, or anywhere near, Tkachuk or Dvorak?

In terms of future potential, of course not. In terms of their skill levels today, they probably are.

Remember, Compher is 20, Motte is 21. Dvorak and Tkachuk are 19 and 17 respectively. Add 3/4 years of development and there is no contest, but today, they probably are similar in terms of skill level.
 
Werenski and who else? Surely you aren't insinuating that Compher or Motte are on the same level, or anywhere near, Tkachuk or Dvorak?
They are high end talent in comparison to the rest of the Big 10. Compher and Motte had bordered a ppg in seasons prior to ever playing with Connor, them becoming ppg guys as juniors would not of surprised anyone. Tkachuk is a great prospect and clearly better than either Motte or Compher, but Marner was almost a ppg guy as a 16 year old before playing with either Dvorak or Tkachuk, and he rarely played in the top 6.
 
When did I even say this?

Gaudreau had a better ppg only 2 years ago , and he was only a year older than Connor, in a harder conference.


In his third year of college. Connor came close to matching that 2 PPG as a freshman.

Eichel had a similar year while being a year younger in a harder conference. And when did I say points are the be all and end all? Your the one who repeatedly cites Connor's point totals and that he'd put up McDavid or Kane numbers, you actually brought up points in the first place as your reasoning on why he'd be a top 6 pick. Why are guys like Domi or Fabbri scoring at a better per minute rate than Eichel, or the fact McDavid is blowing Eichels totals away. You've said what Connor's done is rare, I agree with that, but so few top scorers come out of the NCAA you don't have much to compare it to, what do his point totals indicate about his scoring potential at the next level?

It's not we have no evidence to compare Connor's season to. Interesting that you compare him to Gaudreau, who is what, 5th in NHL scoring this year?

Larkin played on the same team as Connor last year, is having a stellar rookie campaign, and never came close to Connor's numbers.

It's very fair for Jet's fans to be excited, and I understand that mitigating circumstances should be considered, and maybe that excitement tempered somewhat, but I do think it quite possible that Connor could have a Larkin / Gaudreau type impact next year (not current Gaudreau, rookie Gaudreau).
 
They are high end talent in comparison to the rest of the Big 10. Compher and Motte had bordered a ppg in seasons prior to ever playing with Connor, them becoming ppg guys as juniors would not of surprised anyone. Tkachuk is a great prospect and clearly better than either Motte or Compher, but Marner was almost a ppg guy as a 16 year old before playing with either Dvorak or Tkachuk, and he rarely played in the top 6.

Don't be selective in your arguments. Compher had a solid freshman campaign, but had 24 points in 34 games last year. Now all of a sudden, he has 63.

Motte has been steadily progressing, but has also seen a pretty crazy jump in his point totals from 31 to 57.

These 2 guys are good to very good prospects, but you have to imagine playing with Connor also had a significant influence on those point totals.
 
Thats not my point. My point is Connor is far from a lock to put up a better ppg in the OHL than Marner or Strome did. Connor was also surrounded by top talent and rarely played a team that had more talent than his (Marner benefits from this to this year, but not last year). I never said college hockey was easier, all I said was figuring out what level of production in the NCAA is reflective of a high end offensive talent is difficult, and it is compounded by the fact the sample size for the big 10 is non-existent. To think Connor would easily put up a significantly higher ppg than Marner or Strome is just flat out ignoring the type of talents it usually takes to do that. Breaking the 2 ppg mark in the OHL is very hard, guys like Tavares capped out at that. While I agree lower scorers in the NCAA can come to the CHL and be 50 to 60 point guys (Piccinich for example), but I don't think that holds true at the very top.

A point per game in the NCAA like Compher isn't that impressive anymore. Coyle did that with BU and then went on to score 38 points in 23 games in the Q. While the Q isn't the O, you can't argue they aren't comparable leagues.

Those players you listed aren't the same level as Domi/Tkachuk/Dvorak are in the CHL. People pretty much agree Dvorak went much later than he should have but his poor draft season had a lot to do with his knee injury IIRC. Is Connor a lock to outproduce Marner/Strome in the OHL? Probably not, no. But he sure as hell would put up huge points and there is the chance he could if given the right situation. Hell, with the right supporting cast, Gagner put up over 2 points per game in the OHL.
 
For the record, just carrying on the Gaudreau comparison, in the USHL in their 17 year old years, Gaudreau went 36-36-72 in 60 games, while Connor went 31-43-74 in 4 fewer games and actually due to his later birthday, started that season as a 16 year old.

This is not the first stellar offensive season that Connor has had.
 
This whole business of searching for comparable players/analyzing point production based off strength of league/conference and supporting cast is just ludicrous. Clearly this kid has done something special this season and is deserving of the high praise.

Should expectations be tempered, of course. But we don't need guys coming in here trying to hijack a thread by explaining in lengthy TL;DR dissertations about how his team's prospects production is much more noteworthy and how that player is better because X, Y and Z.

Prospects are just prospects until they prove otherwise.

Now can someone who actually watched Michigan enough this season tell us what Connor needs to work on to be a more complete player. What are his coaches going to focus on working on with him so he continues improving at the next level.

Very excited for this guy! Go USA Hockey!
 
A point per game in the NCAA like Compher isn't that impressive anymore. Coyle did that with BU and then went on to score 38 points in 23 games in the Q. While the Q isn't the O, you can't argue they aren't comparable leagues.

Those players you listed aren't the same level as Domi/Tkachuk/Dvorak are in the CHL. People pretty much agree Dvorak went much later than he should have but his poor draft season had a lot to do with his knee injury IIRC. Is Connor a lock to outproduce Marner/Strome in the OHL? Probably not, no. But he sure as hell would put up huge points and there is the chance he could if given the right situation. Hell, with the right supporting cast, Gagner put up over 2 points per game in the OHL.
I agree with what your saying, and acknowledge your first point by bringing up Piccinich. But I think there is a massive gap between being a good scorer and an elite one at the junior level.

Don't be selective in your arguments. Compher had a solid freshman campaign, but had 24 points in 34 games last year. Now all of a sudden, he has 63.

Motte has been steadily progressing, but has also seen a pretty crazy jump in his point totals from 31 to 57.

These 2 guys are good to very good prospects, but you have to imagine playing with Connor also had a significant influence on those point totals.
I acknowledged that he obviously played an important part in making those line click, but prior to the year if you looked at there pedigree and prior production 40 points wouldn't be out of the question for either, many players make big jumps as jrs.

In his third year of college. Connor came close to matching that 2 PPG as a freshman.



It's not we have no evidence to compare Connor's season to. Interesting that you compare him to Gaudreau, who is what, 5th in NHL scoring this year?

Larkin played on the same team as Connor last year, is having a stellar rookie campaign, and never came close to Connor's numbers.

It's very fair for Jet's fans to be excited, and I understand that mitigating circumstances should be considered, and maybe that excitement tempered somewhat, but I do think it quite possible that Connor could have a Larkin / Gaudreau type impact next year (not current Gaudreau, rookie Gaudreau).
I used Gaudreau because while a Jr. he was only a year older than Connor when he did it and is the most recent NCAA player to have elite NHL production, but as noted Hockey-East is much tougher than this years big 10. And Larkin is practically the only big 10 example.

I'm not here to say Connor sucks, or that your insane to take him over Marner or Strome, but I don't think that is a popular view among scouts or anywhere near an industry consensus. My main point was that scoring at an elite rate in the OHL is not easy and a guy coming from college hockey wouldn't destroy Marner, Strome or Konecny's totals. Guys who scored at lower rate like Domi and Fabbri have been more efficient scorers than Eichel (multiple reasons for this such as zone starts and puck luck) but if the reasoning is that the NCAA is tougher to score in, then why is a guy coming off a historical freshman year not running laps around the two OHL kids who had good years but not historical ones. While the OHL product who put up historical numbers last year is outpacing the NCAA guy by a large margin.
 
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When did I even say this? Also great job picking the oldest players in NCAA and the 2nd year age of CHL players to make the disparity bigger.

Gaudreau had a better ppg only 2 years ago , and he was only a year older than Connor, in a harder conference. Eichel had a similar year while being a year younger in a harder conference. And when did I say points are the be all and end all? Your the one who repeatedly cites Connor's point totals and that he'd put up McDavid or Kane numbers, you actually brought up points in the first place as your reasoning on why he'd be a top 6 pick. Why are guys like Domi or Fabbri scoring at a better per minute rate than Eichel, or the fact McDavid is blowing Eichels totals away. You've said what Connor's done is rare, I agree with that, but so few top scorers come out of the NCAA you don't have much to compare it to, what do his point totals indicate about his scoring potential at the next level?

Look up the average age of NCAA and CHL and get back to me.
 
Look up the average age of NCAA and CHL and get back to me.
how bout you show me where you found 17, that is way too low considering teams only play 2 16 year olds and usually carry 2 to 3 20 year olds, with there being an equal amont of 17, 18 and 19 year olds. If anything it should be in the 18's.
 
My main point was that scoring at an elite rate in the OHL is not easy and a guy coming from college hockey wouldn't destroy Marner, Strome or Konecny's totals, guys who scored at lower rate like Domi and Fabbri have been more efficent scorers than Eichel (multiple reasons for this such as zone starts and puck luck) but if the reasoning is that the NCAA is tougher to score in, then why is a guy coming off a historical freshman year not running laps around the two OHL kids who had good years but not historical ones, while the OHL product who put up historical numbers last year is outpacing the NCAA guy by a large margin.

Is this really one sentence? Holy run-on.

Eichel is just fine, it's the Sabres for cryin' out loud

Again, if I'm not mistaken, this is a thread about Kyle Connor, no?
 
Is this really one sentence? Holy run-on.

Eichel is just fine, it's the Sabres for cryin' out loud
I know he's fine. But using the logic its much tougher to score in the NCAA then shouldn't he be crushing guys like Domi? Or be closer to McDavid's pace. Its not like Arizona or Edmonton are powerhouses.
 
Is this really one sentence? Holy run-on.

Eichel is just fine, it's the Sabres for cryin' out loud

Again, if I'm not mistaken, this is a thread about Kyle Connor, no?
It is, but its clearly talking about figuring out how to weight this historical season to future NHL production, and how it could cross over into OHL production. It actually mentioned Connor in the first sentence of the paragraph that you chose to remove.
 
I acknowledged that he obviously played an important part in making those line click, but prior to the year if you looked at there pedigree and prior production 40 points wouldn't be out of the question for either, many players make big jumps as jrs.
Maybe 40, but they have 57 and 63 respectively. A pretty massive jump.

I used Gaudreau because while a Jr. he was only a year older than Connor when he did it and is the most recent NCAA player to have elite NHL production, but as noted Hockey-East is much tougher than this years big 10. And Larkin is practically the only big 10 example.

I actually like the Gaudreau comparison. Yes, HE is tougher, but as you mentioned, he was a year older. Larkin is one of the few examples, but a very recent one, and in fact, likely played against a lot of the players Connor played against this year.

I'm not here to say Connor sucks, or that your insane to take him over Marner or Strome, but I don't think that is a popular view among scouts or anywhere near an industry consensus. My main point was that scoring at an elite rate in the OHL is not easy and a guy coming from college hockey wouldn't destroy Marner, Strome or Konecny's totals. Guys who scored at lower rate like Domi and Fabbri have been more efficient scorers than Eichel (multiple reasons for this such as zone starts and puck luck) but if the reasoning is that the NCAA is tougher to score in, then why is a guy coming off a historical freshman year not running laps around the two OHL kids who had good years but not historical ones. While the OHL product who put up historical numbers last year is outpacing the NCAA guy by a large margin.

Very fair, and for the record, I don't think you are being unfair in your analysis. The thing is, you can't downplay what Connor has done simply because there are no comparables.

Fabbri and Domi are also both older than Eichel. I would be very surprised if Eichel didn't lap them both very soon.
 
Maybe 40, but they have 57 and 63 respectively. A pretty massive jump.



I actually like the Gaudreau comparison. Yes, HE is tougher, but as you mentioned, he was a year older. Larkin is one of the few examples, but a very recent one, and in fact, likely played against a lot of the players Connor played against this year.



Very fair, and for the record, I don't think you are being unfair in your analysis. The thing is, you can't downplay what Connor has done simply because there are no comparables.

Fabbri and Domi are also both older than Eichel. I would be very surprised if Eichel didn't lap them both very soon.
Fabbri and Eichel are both 96's, but I do expect Eichel to out produce him by a sizable margin.
 
It is, but its clearly talking about figuring out how to weight this historical season to future NHL production, and how it could cross over into OHL production. It actually mentioned Connor in the first sentence of the paragraph that you chose to remove.

Well to me discussing the finer points of the strength of prospects coming from the CHL vs NCAA and their historical impact on the NHL is a whole thread in and of itself. But that discussion will be very one sided because its painstakingly obvious the CHL has produced more elite scoring talent, which I think you've already mentioned in this thread.

The deal is this: this a new era in NCAA Men's Div. I Hockey. The league has become much more defensive-minded and lower scoring than in the days of Kariya. The landscape of the league as a whole has drastically changed with the realignment which you have touched on. We're seeing the percentage of NHL players coming from NCAA development backgrounds rising to an all time high. Albeit mainly players serving in bottom-6F/bottom-4 D capacities. But it is still very hard to say, at this point, what Connor's season means in terms of his potential NHL ceiling and how to put it all into perspective going forward. I think he'll write his own story better than any we can predict with our amateur analysis with player comparables and NHLe, ect.

Im much more interested in what Connor needs to do to take the next step in his development and what is best for him next season, NCAA vs turing pro. I think he's ready for the AHL (best route for his development IMHO) but I do think he should maybe go back for another season in NCAA to really bare down and focus more of the defensive side of the puck.
 
Well to me discussing the finer points of the strength of prospects coming from the CHL vs NCAA and their historical impact on the NHL is a whole thread in and of itself. But that discussion will be very one sided because its painstakingly obvious the CHL has produced more elite scoring talent, which I think you've already mentioned in this thread.

The deal is this: this a new era in NCAA Men's Div. I Hockey. The league has become much more defensive-minded and lower scoring than in the days of Kariya. The landscape of the league as a whole has drastically changed with the realignment which you have touched on. We're seeing the percentage of NHL players coming from NCAA development backgrounds rising to an all time high. Albeit mainly players serving in bottom-6F/bottom-4 D capacities. But it is still very hard to say, at this point, what Connor's season means in terms of his potential NHL ceiling and how to put it all into perspective going forward. I think he'll write his own story better than any we can predict with our amateur analysis with player comparables and NHLe, ect.

Im much more interested in what Connor needs to do to take the next step in his development and what is best for him next season, NCAA vs turing pro. I think he's ready for the AHL (best route for his development IMHO) but I do think he should maybe go back for another season in NCAA to really bare down and focus more of the defensive side of the puck.
It is interesting the emergence of higher scoring freshman the last 2 years. I made a thread asking if Connor and Eichel's, or even Boeser and Larkin's years are the new normal with more top prospects going the NCAA route (3 forwards in the 8 to 20 range are committed for next year) after a lack of top forwards going between 2009 and 2014.

I'd say he most likely gets a similar role to Ehlers which is 3rd line with pp and earn your way up. Personally, I'd send him to the AHL for a bit unless he destroys camp, having your minor league team in your city also helps in this regard. I don't think the NCAA is a good option, time to challenge him again and force him to adapt. I just wonder what the Jets do if they get the 2nd or 3rd pick. Finding a way to fit 3 20 and under wingers on the roster would be interesting but my guess is Connor would be the one who would start on the Moose.
 

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