LW Juraj Slafkovsky - TPS Turku, Liiga (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 2

[Frank Drebin]

What do you mean by "next Kotkaniemi"?

Probably referring to the fact that Kotkaniemi rose in the weeks/ months prior to the draft despite poor regular season statistics, and ended up being a very underwhelming player for a #3oa pick.

 

[Jukurit]

Probably referring to the fact that Kotkaniemi rose in the weeks/ months prior to the draft despite poor regular season statistics, and ended up being a very underwhelming player for a #3oa pick.

"Poor regular season statistics", well that's just simply false. He was 3rd on his team in scoring.
Also Kotkaniemi wasn't even ranked top 20 on Bob McKenzie's pre-season rankings and in the final rankings he was ranked 5th. Habs reached and picked him 3rd.

Slafkovsky was ranked 4th on Bob's pre-season rankings and now he's ranked 1st.

Don't really see the similarity.

 

[Frank Drebin]

"Poor regular season statistics", well that's just simply false. He was 3rd on his team in scoring.
Also Kotkaniemi wasn't even ranked top 20 on Bob McKenzie's pre-season rankings and in the final rankings he was ranked 5th. Habs reached and picked him 3rd.

Slafkovsky was ranked 4th on Bob's pre-season rankings and now he's ranked 1st.

Don't really see the similarity.

You can't blame us for feeling wary.

It sure is nice to pick 1oa in a year that feels like 2012 all over again

 

[Jukurit]

You can't blame us for feeling wary.

It sure is nice to pick 1oa in a year that feels like 2012 all over again

Completely understandable that some habs fans are feeling like this based on how past 2 high draft picks turned out.

 

[Peasy]

Slaf looks like a much better prospect than kotka did during his draft year imo. Kotka had more question marks coming into the draft too.

Raw production isn't everything, especially for prospects. It's a part of the equation, but not the end all be all.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How does Slafkovsky compare to Kirby Dach? Both big guys with good hands and kind of "underwhelming" production relative to their draft position. Dach scoring 73 points in 62 games is obviously good, but his draft year production doesn't quite stack up to other highly drafted CHL forwards. Bit similarly how Slafkovsky's draft year production doesn't stack up to other highly drafted Liiga prospects. Though with Slafkovsky that difference in production is more obvious.

That’s a good comparison. Not exact, but I see what you are getting at.

 

[Jukurit]

I'd be interested to know from Slovakian fans (or just people who have otherwise watched Slafkovsky), what were the differences in Slafkovsky's play between the Olympics and World Championships? Was he better or worse in one tournament? Did he play different style? Do different things? Literally anything you can think of.

 

[kudla]

I'd be interested to know from Slovakian fans (or just people who have otherwise watched Slafkovsky), what were the differences in Slafkovsky's play between the Olympics and World Championships? Was he better or worse in one tournament? Did he play different style? Do different things? Literally anything you can think of.

I'd say he was about equally good in these tournaments. Very good and impactful, made things happen whenever he stepped on the ice. The difference was that at the olympics he was building and elevating his game troughout the tournament to eventually become a 1st liner. Then at the championships, he had already arrived with the role of a key player, so that must have been difficult for him, but he handled it well. Wouldn't say he changed his play style much or smth.

 

[Jukurit]

I'd say he was about equally good in these tournaments. Very good and impactful, made things happen whenever he stepped on the ice. The difference was that at the olympics he was building and elevating his game troughout the tournament to eventually become a 1st liner. Then at the championships, he had already arrived with the role of a key player, so that must have been difficult for him, but he handled it well. Wouldn't say he changed his play style much or smth.

Is there any particular reason why he had more goals in the Olympics and more assists in the Worlds?
Also, I was wondering about the rink size. NHL sized rinks in the Olympics and Worlds rinks were bit bigger right?
Did that show in any way in Slaf's game?

 

[danisonfire]

Is there any particular reason why he had more goals in the Olympics and more assists in the Worlds?
Also, I was wondering about the rink size. NHL sized rinks in the Olympics and Worlds rinks were bit bigger right?
Did that show in any way in Slaf's game?

His shooting % at the Olympics was 29% (Unsustainable).

His shooting % at the Worlds was 11% (Sustainable? Unsustainable?)

A lot has to do with variance and small sample sizes. For reference he was at 5.6% shooting (is this number little low? Is it his true shooting % ?) in his in his 31 Liiga games.

In the Liiga playoffs he was at 4.3% shooting.

 

[MBrodeur]

Probably referring to the fact that Kotkaniemi rose in the weeks/ months prior to the draft despite poor regular season statistics, and ended up being a very underwhelming player for a #3oa pick.

Kotka was a reach when he was picked. He was never particularily hyped among Finns despite our habit of overhyping our prospects

 

[Jukurit]

His shooting % at the Olympics was 29%.
His shooting % at the Worlds was 11%.

A lot has to do with variance and small sample sizes. For reference he was at 5.6% shooting in his 31 Liiga games.

Well, actually he was shooting at about 10% or something. Liiga just lists "shots" differently.

Also, just looking at shooting percentages doesn't really explain the difference in assists.

 

[danisonfire]

Well, actually he was shooting at about 10% or something. Liiga just lists "shots" differently.

Also, just looking at shooting percentages doesn't really explain the difference in assists.

The guys asked why he had less goals. I think the massive drop (29% to 11%) in shooting % might be related....

For the 11% number I said Sustainable? Unsustainable? Because it could be close to his true rate. He has a nice shot. I have Slafkovsky 4th. I still think his Worlds stats and play is a lot more impressive then his Olympics. His Worlds shooting % is sustainable and his assist totals were great

 

[Jukurit]

The guys asked why he had less goals. I think the massive drop (29% to 11%) in shooting % might be related....

For the 11% number I said Sustainable? Unsustainable? Because it could be close to his true rate. He has a nice shot. I have Slafkovsky 4th. I still think his Worlds stats and play is a lot more impressive then his Olympics. His Worlds shooting % is sustainable and his assist totals were great

Well, I was thinking more about how in the Olympics he had way more goals than assists and in Worlds had way more assists than goals. Of course, if we make Slafkovsky's Olympics shooting percentage seem more "reasonable" he would have 3 or 4 goals in 7 games. So going from, let's say, 4 goals 0 assists in 7 games in the Olympics to 3 goals 6 assists in 8 games would seem like pretty good progression. I just thought that Slafkovsky looked more dangerous in the Olympics when Slovakia played Finland and less dangerous at the Worlds, but maybe I'm alone on that one.

 

[Hisch13r]

His shooting % at the Olympics was 29% (Unsustainable).

His shooting % at the Worlds was 11% (Sustainable? Unsustainable?)

A lot has to do with variance and small sample sizes. For reference he was at 5.6% shooting (is this number little low? Is it his true shooting % ?) in his in his 31 Liiga games.

In the Liiga playoffs he was at 4.3% shooting.

Also important to note that Liiga counts all shot attempts as shots so his SH% isn't actually that low.

Is there any particular reason why he had more goals in the Olympics and more assists in the Worlds?
Also, I was wondering about the rink size. NHL sized rinks in the Olympics and Worlds rinks were bit bigger right?
Did that show in any way in Slaf's game?

Both events were NHL rinks

 

[danisonfire]

Also important to note that Liiga counts all shot attempts as shots so his SH% isn't actually that low.



Both events were NHL rinks

Is there a way to differentiate his total number of attempts from his shots on net?

 

[Forge]

Is there a way to differentiate his total number of attempts from his shots on net?

Someone provided that to me before, but I can't remember where it was. I will say that Todd Cordell did a breakdown on slaf and the on ice shooting percentage for when he was on the ice was 4.3% (slaf on his own shot 5.9% using all shots the team was about 5.4% I think). That was 23/24 with 15 games on the team. If he had been average on the team, 7.8% (12/24), it would have resulted in about 10 more goals with him on the ice.

Obviously not a huge difference given he likely wouldn't have had a point on all of them, but there's at least some room for positive regression there

 

[Jukurit]

Both events were NHL rinks

I thought they were supposed to be, but they couldn't convert the old Helsinki Ice Hall to NHL size, but I read that on HFBoards, so maybe false.

I'm just wondering how much the rink size could have impact on Slafkovsky's game.

Example:
Mikko Rantanen didn't score that many points in Liiga, but looked like a beast on WJC in his draft year (on small ice)
Kaapo Kakko looked like a beast in Liiga, but looked just "pretty good" in WJC in his draft year (on small ice)

Of course we know how much better Rantanen has been than Kakko in NHL, but I think euro prospect showing adaptivity/comfortability on small rinks could be something to look into.

 

[Jukurit]

Someone provided that to me before, but I can't remember where it was. I will say that Todd Cordell did a breakdown on slaf and the on ice shooting percentage for when he was on the ice was 4.3% (slaf on his own shot 5.9% using all shots the team was about 5.4% I think). That was 23/24 with 15 games on the team. If he had been average on the team, 7.8% (12/24), it would have resulted in about 10 more goals with him on the ice.

Obviously not a huge difference given he likely wouldn't have had a point on all of them, but there's at least some room for positive regression there

I think it was me.
When you go here, click on stats drop-down-box and select "Shots on goal".

 

[Andrei79]

Probably referring to the fact that Kotkaniemi rose in the weeks/ months prior to the draft despite poor regular season statistics, and ended up being a very underwhelming player for a #3oa pick.

This is inaccurate. He had one of the most productive seasons for a U18 player in Liiga history. He was third in scoring on his team.

 

[Frank Drebin]

This is inaccurate. He had one of the most productive seasons for a U18 player in Liiga history. He was third in scoring on his team.

Ok, I stand corrected. He still was a late riser in the draft and a reach at 3.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

I watched nearly every minute of Slovakia in the WC and I entered the tournament with a slight bias against him. As a Devils fan who likes to look at stats (advanced stats, historical production, etc. ), he already had a strike against him in my mind. His play really put me at ease and I think he would’ve had a few more points if he played literally anywhere else on PP1. Why he played net front when Slovakia had potato farmers handling the puck baffled me.

It’s foolish to expect a ppg guy based on his production to date, but I think there’s something to him balling at two major tournaments at 17-18 when he was getting big minutes. When all is said and done, a 50-60 point guy who will slot in nicely next to Hughes or Hischier will be just fine. I think there’s room for a little more and obviously room for less but that’s where I see him ending up

 

[Forge]

I think it was me.
When you go here, click on stats drop-down-box and select "Shots on goal".

Ah yes, thank you for that. Was very helpful to have the correct data

 

[Hisch13r]

I watched nearly every minute of Slovakia in the WC and I entered the tournament with a slight bias against him. As a Devils fan who likes to look at stats (advanced stats, historical production, etc. ), he already had a strike against him in my mind. His play really put me at ease and I think he would’ve had a few more points if he played literally anywhere else on PP1. Why he played net front when Slovakia had potato farmers handling the puck baffled me.

It’s foolish to expect a ppg guy based on his production to date, but I think there’s something to him balling at two major tournaments at 17-18 when he was getting big minutes. When all is said and done, a 50-60 point guy who will slot in nicely next to Hughes or Hischier will be just fine. I think there’s room for a little more and obviously room for less but that’s where I see him ending up

I'm in a similar boat. I think it's a "fine" pick and he'll be a pretty good player but it's still not what I'd do at 2.

 

[NyQuil]

It’s foolish to expect a ppg guy based on his production to date, but I think there’s something to him balling at two major tournaments at 17-18 when he was getting big minutes.

I think there's a bit of a Kopitar vibe where NHL teams clearly didn't respect his performances enough (albeit in a small sample) as a key contributor to a men's national team against solid international competition.