LW Juraj Slafkovsky (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 3
- Thread starter GermanSpitfire
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Halakitlikethat
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Send him down to Fredricton
JohnLennon
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- Mar 26, 2011
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We got spoiled with a few drafts featuring the likes of McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Laine, etc back before 2017, who all made almost immediate impacts in the NHL. Ever since then, these were the top two picks of each draft:
-Hischier
-Patrick
-Dahlin
-Svechnikov
-Hughes
-Kakko
-Lafreniere
-Byfield
-Power
-Beniers
Out of all these top two picks over the last 5-6 years, almost none of them made an immediate impact in the NHL, and most of them have taken years to finally develop into their draft pedigree (specifically Hischier, Dahlin, Hughes). Guys like Byfield, Lafreniere, Kakko still haven't found their way. Just because there are a few from each draft that made quick impacts, it does not mean we need to make hasty conclusions about those higher up in the draft. Not too long ago, almost everyone thought Jack Hughes was a bust... now he's regarded very highly.
This doesn't apply only to Slaf, but to Wright, Cooley, Nemec... and also Power, Beniers, McTavish. Don't be surprised if they don't light up the league in their rookie seasons. Development is not a sprint.
-Hischier
-Patrick
-Dahlin
-Svechnikov
-Hughes
-Kakko
-Lafreniere
-Byfield
-Power
-Beniers
Out of all these top two picks over the last 5-6 years, almost none of them made an immediate impact in the NHL, and most of them have taken years to finally develop into their draft pedigree (specifically Hischier, Dahlin, Hughes). Guys like Byfield, Lafreniere, Kakko still haven't found their way. Just because there are a few from each draft that made quick impacts, it does not mean we need to make hasty conclusions about those higher up in the draft. Not too long ago, almost everyone thought Jack Hughes was a bust... now he's regarded very highly.
This doesn't apply only to Slaf, but to Wright, Cooley, Nemec... and also Power, Beniers, McTavish. Don't be surprised if they don't light up the league in their rookie seasons. Development is not a sprint.
Man based on your entire post history I find it hard to believe you actually believe anything you post. My favorite this year is trashing players drafted that aren't big like Slaf, considering your troll level obsession with the homuncules Caufield.
The problem with this take is the fact that besides Hughes in 2019, the rest of these guys shouldn't have been drafted so high and I feel the same way about Slaf, tho granted it's too soon to truly know.
2017 Makar and Petey should have been 1-2.
2018 Quinn is as of now #1 in a redraft considering he's out producing every single player.
2019 Jack was always the right choice and even when the points weren't there, one didn't need to grasp at straws to justify the pick. I feel the same way about Slaf as I did and do feel about Byfield and Dach, a GM fell in love with size and reached.
I mean I get that it's far too small of a sample size to shit on Slaf , however given that his entire reason for being #1 was almost entirely based on his size and a couple international tournaments against weak competition, it's fair for people to nit-pick.
People saying that Jack struggled and using that as an example seem to forget how utterly dominant he was with the USNDP. There are other players that have struggled as well but they too at least dominated in their draft season. A guy like Cooley, he at least showed elite skill and maybe that doesn't end up translating but at least there's a glimpse. Slaf has such a small sample size where he played well but a much larger example of not. And now some point out scrimmages ffs while ignoring the fact that guys like Beck and Mesar looked a million times better in the exact same situations. Sorry that's a big red flag.
Maybe things change but what in his past supports this? Even his games that everyone talks about, he scored some really flukes goals against some pretty shitty teams.
Kobe Armstrong
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- Jul 26, 2011
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Would Eichel and Laine be drafted #2 in a re-draft?
Eichel facing competition from Marner, Rantanen, Werenski
Laine facing competition from Tkachuk. McAvoy, Sergachev
It seems the point you are making is that most of the time, the top 2 picks aren't slam dunks, even when the rankings have them as the consensus BPA. Which is exactly what the person you are quoting is saying.
Tage Thompson wasn't a 1st overall pick though. You expect the first overall pick to not have to work on much.
JohnLennon
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I kind of covered this when I mentioned "Just because there are a few from each draft that made quick impacts, it does not mean we need to make hasty conclusions about those higher up in the draft."
The argument doesn't hold when you use the benefit of hindsight to claim who "should have" gone first, second, third overall in my opinion. Almost all of the guys I mentioned above were pretty consensus top two picks at the time of their drafts, including Nolan Patrick. Speaking of Nolan Patrick, you brought up that Jack Hughes was dominant in USHL, but ignore the fact that most of the guys I mentioned above were also dominant in their respective leagues, or had other valid reasons to go high at the time. Patrick himself had 178 pts in 126 games leading up to his draft, and was debated as first overall at the time.
As for Slafkovsky in particular, you're arguing that the sample sizes between international play and Liiga play are massively different. They are sizeable, but I think slightly exaggerated. Liiga play was 49 games, and then in international play he played 19 games (and got 18 points). The difference in games played is not that substantial, and the international play coming after Liiga showed an upward trend in his development curve, which of course is encouraging at such a tender age. Not to mention both Liiga and international were mostly against grown men, whereas all these other prospects were mostly dominating against their peers.
It's easy to cherry-pick little things here and there, and apply revisionist history 5 years after drafts, but the truth of the matter is that I took a span of 5-6 years and clearly demonstrated that most of these guys either NEEDED a few years, or STILL haven't met their potential yet. The main point? Be patient with prospects, Slafkovsky is a special player with unique tools and guys like him are more of a project, which will take time. More "NHL-ready" does not mean "higher potential", which is why you calling Beck outperforming Slafkovsky in 3-4 scrimmages a "red flag" is a little silly, IMO.
That's a very fair point. I think my main thing was that typically, the really big kids take more time to develop unless they're truly special (Quinton Byfield is another one that is taking some time). But that's just my observation. I think preaching patience with prospects, even top three picks, is the most reasonable approach.
Id say Hischier made a pretty immediate impact but he was the Center for Taylor Hall who want the Hart that year.
MichaelFarrell
Registered User
The difference is Canadians management has stated repeatedly that they essentially don’t think Slaf will be the best player out the gate. They have always viewed him as a guy who could be great years from now.
For almost every other 1st overall pick, they were drafted as guys who could make a nearly immediate impact. That was never the idea when drafted Slaf imo.
Dahlin set records his rookie season
Hischier put up 50+ pts
Svechnikov put up 20G despite being buried in the lineup and had a great playoffs
Patrick busted overall because of injuries
Power and Beniers chose to go back to college
It’s very very rare for 1st overalls to not be good enough to make at least some kind of impact the NHL their 1st year
Most 1st overalls are the best immediately, but also projected to be the best long-term. Atleast in strong draft classes such as Matthews and MacKinnon, before you even get to the generational tier of McDavid or Crosby. It's only really in flux when the 1B in a draft is a defenceman since they tend to take longer and be higher risk, and may have more upside like Tavares/Hedman or Stamkos/Doughty.
Kudo Shinichi
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Had a good game today
The 2 games where he was not that noticeable were the second games of a b2b.
The 2 games where he was not that noticeable were the second games of a b2b.
Kennerback
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Draisaitl also looked meh in the NHL and did so for the first year.
Big guys need time
Big guys need time
Hischier and Hughes
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Hischier scored 20G too, he doesnt get enough credit for that year
FlameChampion
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Agree with this post. I think most teams/players would be better off sending high picks back for the first year. Its better for both the player and team.
Sometimes they don't though.
Joe Thornton had 7 points in 55 games as a rookie.
Ended up having a decent career.
Draisaitl looked like he couldn't keep pace at 18. 9 points in 37 games. Not a #1oa pick, but in a "weaker" year he could have been.
All of this is moot. Slav has played what, 5 preseason games? Jesus christ.
Fire Sweeney
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There's a dated reference, good lord.
JohnLennon
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I mean... Is it really rare? Because literally the last three first overall picks before Slafkovsky: Power, Lafreniere, and Hughes certainly didn't make an immediate impact in the NHL... As @Frank Drebin mentioned, two all-star examples of slow starts are Thornton and Draisaitl. I hardly think it's "very, very rare" to see a first overall pick not make an immediate impact when literally every single first overall pick before Slafkovsky for three years straight also didn't make an immediate impact in the NHL... And history is littered with examples of this.
Clearly the main point was: patience is key in player development, whether they're first overall or 100th. There are absolutely some fantastic players that perform right away in the NHL, but whether they make an immediate impact or not in the NHL the "exact year" they were drafted has very little correlation to the success of their careers. The season hasn't even started yet, Slafkovsky had another great game tonight... let's be patient before making grand proclamations.
Hischier was awesome, that's true. Having Hall certainly might've helped!
When your example is a guy drafted in 1997 and we’re in the year 2022… you might not have a point.
Go through the list of 1st overall picks and yes it’s extremely rare.
Power doesn’t count because HE chose not to play because he never got the college experience because of Covid. He would have absolutely been on the opening night roster and based on his 8 game sample at the end of the year would have made a decent impact as a top 4D.
It doesn’t mean Slaf is a bust but it’s far from a good sign if he’s not ready. Especially when he has the body of a 30 year old.
Yakupov had 31 points in 48 games as a rookie, Kotkaniemi looked like an nhl regular at 18.
your point is?
Have a good posting career.
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